Zelensky came to Hiroshima, the Russian army occupied Bakhmut, and the European Union drank a cup of nuclear radiation!泽连斯基驾临广岛，俄军占领巴赫穆特，欧盟痛饮一杯核辐射！
In recent days, East Asia has become the focus of global attention.
The two summits were held respectively in China and Japan, two major powers in East Asia.
In China, the summit between China and the five Central Asian countries was held, and in Japan, the G7 summit of the seven dwarfs was held.
China and Central Asia are working hard to promote regional economic development, prosperity and stability. The G7 summit in Japan is doing everything possible to fuel the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and is preparing to create the next war.
On May 20, Ukrainian actor President Volodymyr Zelensky took a French government plane from Jeddah International Airport in Saudi Arabia to Hiroshima, Japan, to attend the G7 summit.
Japan has specially laid out a red carpet to welcome it, which reflects the importance attached to it. In the next few days, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will hold formal talks with Zelensky.
Afterwards, Zelensky will, like the lord of the West (except, of course, the United States), meet with leaders of other countries one by one and ask them to support Ukraine.
Previously, in order to seek more weapons, Zelensky has successively visited countries such as the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Germany.
On May 13, Zelensky visited Italy and the Vatican and met with Italian President Mattarella, Prime Minister Meloni and Pope Francis. Italy expressed its support for Ukraine's accession to the European Union and reiterated that it would provide military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.
On May 14, Zelensky visited Germany. Germany announced the largest military aid package since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis. It will provide Ukraine with a total of 2.7 billion euros in military aid, including 30 "Leopard 1" tanks, 20 "Weasel" infantry fighting vehicles, 15 Cheetah anti-aircraft tanks and nearly 100 armored vehicles.
On the evening of May 14, Zelensky visited France and had dinner with President Macron. France will provide Ukraine with dozens of armored vehicles and light tanks within a few weeks and help Ukraine strengthen its air defense capabilities.
On May 15, Zelensky visited the United Kingdom, and the United Kingdom promised to assist Ukraine with long-range attack drones and "promote" the United States to assist F-16 advanced fighter jets.
On May 19, Zelensky attended the 32nd Arab League Summit in Saudi Arabia. In his speech, he accused the Arab world of turning a blind eye to Russia's aggression in Ukraine and continuing to cooperate with Russia instead. What's funny is that the leaders of Syria, the United Arab Emirates and other countries didn't wear the headphones for simultaneous interpretation!
The implication of this gesture is very straightforward: no matter what nonsense you put out, we don't listen at all.
The current world pattern is very clear. Ukraine has won the support of the Western world such as the United States and the European Union, but has not received the sympathy of the Eastern camp and the Arab world.
On May 19, the leaders of the seven countries agreed to impose new sanctions on Russia, with the goal of "depriving Russia of the technology, industrial equipment and services of the G7 countries used to support its war machine". The sanctions include restricting the export of items "vital to Russia on the battlefield" and cracking down on entities accused of helping Russia deliver supplies to the front lines.
Overall, this summit of the seven Western countries has almost turned into an anti-Russian meeting. Of course, China is an indispensable topic, but Russia has not yet bowed its head, and the seven countries have not freed up their hands to deal with China with all their strength, so the relevant wording is still a bit reserved.
It is worth mentioning that the group photo of the leaders of the seven countries and the housekeeper of the European Union is a white wreath in the background! We must thank the ghost animal culture of Little Japan, and dragged the West into the pit again!
In the so-called G7, France still has an independent will, Italy is much weaker, and the German Scholz government is simply obedient to the United States.
As for Britain and Canada, they are all in the same spirit as the United States, and they are both in the Anglo-Saxon camp; Japan is just a dog controlled by the United States.
Therefore, it is not surprising that the Group of Seven makes any decisions!
Just before the seven-nation summit, the battle between Russia and Ukraine over Bachhot reached its final juncture.
According to news, four Russian fighter planes were shot down in one day, and two colonels and commanders died. It is conceivable that the sacrifice was huge!
From May 16 to 17, 2023, Li Hui, China's special representative for Eurasian affairs, visited Ukraine and held talks with mostly senior Ukrainian officials. According to news from the media, Ukraine announced four conditions for the truce:
1. The Ukrainian side demands that all occupied territories be returned;
2. Russia must bear a large number of war losses;
3. All Russian troops must be withdrawn;
4. All Russians involved in waging war must be tried by an international court.
From Ukraine's point of view, it is completely reasonable to put forward the above conditions, but it is obvious that Russia will definitely not agree to the truce if this condition is negotiated.
As far as Russia is concerned, Russia and Ukraine can cease the war, but they will certainly not make unprincipled concessions for the sake of the cease-fire. The bottom line is that the five states of Kherson, Zaporozhye, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea have voted to join Russia, and Ukraine must recognize Russia's sovereignty.
This is the focus of the contest between the two sides.
It is impossible for a ferocious beast to give up its prey before fighting to exhaustion.
The purpose of NATO in the United States is to consume Russia, and it does not matter how much Ukraine suffers. Ukrainian Zelensky is clearly a puppet regime.
That being the case, the war will continue and cannot end.
In response to the G7's anti-Russian attitude, on May 20, Prigozin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group who was fighting in Bakhmut, Ukraine, publicly announced on social platforms that the group's fighters had 100% control of Bakhmut. area!
Prigozin said: The Wagner fighters were all voluntary, and thanked the silently supporting Russian people and Russian President Putin for giving them the opportunity to serve the country.
In the early hours of May 21, Russia issued a statement saying, "Putin congratulates 'Wagner's assault troops and all members of the Russian Armed Forces who provided them with the necessary support and flanking cover for the completion of the liberation of Artemovsk. special) action."
Prior to this, Ukraine launched a major counterattack in Bakhmut, but was strongly blocked by Russia. The two sides circled the last square kilometer, the corpses of the contest were scattered all over the field, and the city was full of ruins.
So far, this half-year-long urban battle has come to an end.
The Russian army chose this day to declare victory, obviously to show its strength in the game with the Western world!
Bakhmut's influence on the Russian-Ukrainian war is very great, and its importance cannot be underestimated.
Because of this, the city has become a meat grinder for both sides, and the half-year competition has exhausted the elite trained by NATO in Ukraine. The Ukrainian side lost dozens of brigades.
On May 8, Zaluzhny, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, was seriously injured at a command post of the Eastern Group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Dnepropetrovsk region, and his life and death are still uncertain.
According to the Ukrainian side, the commander-in-chief is staying in the best military clinical hospital, and doctors including foreign experts are working hard to save his life.
Even the commander-in-chief was seriously injured and on the verge of death. One can imagine the tragic situation of the battle!
Despite numerous casualties and heavy costs, NATO still supports Ukraine to hold on to the city.
Located in eastern Ukraine, Bahmut is an important industrial city and transportation hub, and was once one of the largest iron ore processing centers in Ukraine.
This area is of great strategic importance to both Russia and Ukraine.
The strategic value of the Russian army's occupation of Bakhmut is incomparable:
Control of traffic arteries: Bakhmut is located on a key traffic artery in eastern Ukraine. Occupation of the area would allow control of this arterial, making it easier for the Russian army to mobilize troops and supplies.
Weakening the enemy's line of defense: The Bakhmut area is an important position in eastern Ukraine. Occupying this area can weaken the enemy's line of defense and provide more favorable conditions for the Russian army's offensive in eastern Ukraine.
Improved Morale: Capturing important cities can improve the morale of Russian troops, increasing their confidence and resolve in conflict.
The loss of Bakhmut in Ukraine will seriously affect the confidence of the Ukrainian armed forces, and even affect the confidence of the West in supporting Ukraine!
Losing Bakhmut means that Ukraine's defense line will retreat westward significantly!
However, commentators from the Hantang think tank believe that the attitude of the United States and NATO to support Ukraine will not change!
Because, at present, the United States has deeply coerced the European Union.
France and Germany are the two horse-drawn carriages of the EU, but their influence within the EU has been diluted by the new EU members supported by the United States. Germany and France also have different positions and attitudes in the face of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Therefore, the EU's strategic autonomy that France expects may be far away.
Now that it has lost its strategic autonomy, it can only accept the reality, which is to enjoy a mouthful of nuclear-polluted air first.
Earlier, on April 25, the British Ministry of Defense announced that it had sent thousands of "Challenger"-2 tank shells to Ukraine, including depleted uranium armor-piercing shells.
On May 13, the Russian army launched an air strike on the city of Khmelnytsky in western Ukraine. The target was suspected to be an ammunition depot. The airstrike caused a violent explosion, raising a mushroom cloud like a nuclear explosion. Based on this, some people speculate that the target stores depleted uranium bombs provided by the United Kingdom to Ukraine.
On May 19, Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of the Russian Federation Security Council, said, "The radiation cloud caused by the destruction of depleted uranium bombs supplied to Ukraine by the West is drifting towards Western Europe. and the disaster in Nagasaki."
In order to reassure people, the Polish National Atomic Energy Agency stated: "Currently, the radiation level in Poland is normal. There is no harm to human health and life or to the environment in Poland."
Perhaps, this is Russia releasing smoke bombs to influence the hearts and minds of the EU.
Even if it was a false alarm this time, if the war continues like this, will mankind still be far away from nuclear war?
If the Russo-Ukraine war turns into a nuclear war, no one in Eurasia will benefit except the United States, which is watching the fire from the shore!
The Eurasian continents unite to disintegrate the war conspiracy of the Anglo-Saxons!
U.S.-Russian cooperation, is it surprising?
The Russian Satellite News Agency recently issued an article that in 2022, the United States will still purchase enriched uranium worth US$1 billion from Russia in the context of imposing economic sanctions on Russia.
In the field of uranium enrichment, the U.S. government "clearly failed to find an alternative," the report said. In the economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the U.S. government, the field of uranium enrichment has been intentionally avoided.
"The one who applauds you may not necessarily be your friend." It may also be the person who is going to shoot you in the back.
I don’t know if the majority of molluscs and cephalopods understand this truth. Anyway, as long as I search for this type of species, most of the tags will have an item: "How to make it delicious".
The Wuchang Club is the Wuchang Club, and other countries are other countries. If you don't understand this at all, it is a complete joke. Let's tear it up between the five permanent members. He is still a "legal nuclear-armed country", trading nuclear materials with each other, working together to get some children to play with dangerous goods, and everyone sitting down to carve up the world's territory. It is normal operation, don't be too surprised.
In some small countries and regions, if you applaud you, you don’t know your surname. You think you can really "hit Moscow and liberate Mao Zimei", you are losing your mind and eating glutinous rice balls, and your heart is burnt with lard I don't know how much I weigh. Chess pieces, chessboards, chess players, just be good chess pieces and don’t try to become a chessboard. The chessboard is just a chessboard.
Recently, there are a lot of things about "chess pieces must be used as chessboards" and "chessboards trying to influence chess players". There are a group of rhythmic people who like to bring rhythm to this rhythm. I don't know what you are trying to figure out?
The thing between chess players is a chess player's game. For you, you have a chess piece and a chessboard. What should you do after the game is over? If there is any shameful PY transaction behind it, that is also the chess player's business. You are a broken chessboard. What are you bluffing about? Is self-improvement fun?
The United States and Russia have never broken faces. This is a matter that is clearly on the surface. I don’t know why so many people are obsessed with it. The Romance of the Three Kingdoms of China, the United States and Russia is now all over the world looking for a scapegoat to overcome the current difficulties. As for whether the scapegoat is Europe or Japan or South Korea, this depends on the wishes of China, the United States and Russia. After all, "the three-body problem only has a numerical solution without analysis. "Solution", since there are three parties participating in the chess game, it is impossible to have a fixed law, only the specific value of the instantaneous state, it is almost impossible to sum up a law, you can only take one step at a time.
Looking at it now, it probably means "killing Europe first and then Japan and South Korea". Anyway, there are only two fat pigs now, and Europe has already slaughtered them and is shedding their hair. The so-called "dead pigs are not afraid of boiling water", when the pig's mouth on the chopping board is the hardest, is it still possible to have a little "final dignity" after the slaughter?
As for any transactions between the three countries, I don't care if you are a dead pig.
Some time ago, my official account posted an exclusive article, which analyzed the possibility of the outbreak of World War III and the trend of world wars in the next few years. It said that the theme of the world in the recent period is still peace and development. stand up. why?
The relationship between China, the United States and Russia is actually in the best period in history.
Killing the Pig is celebrating the New Year in full swing, do you think the relationship is good?
Now the main conflict between the three brothers focuses on how to divide the pigs, who gets more and who gets less, who wants the hind legs and who gets the front legs, who gets the ribs and who gets the tenderloin, who gets the pig’s head, who gets the pork belly, etc. thing. Pigs must be slaughtered, and they have already been killed. If it is not enough, there is still one in the pigsty. Don't look at the quarrel between the three brothers, it's the joy of a good harvest, and it's the "pain" of sharing the cake.
There are quite a few people who are too deep into the drama, and actually make up the plot of the three brothers picking up the butcher's knife and desperately, which is a bit bad.
The butcher's knife is for killing pigs, not for fighting.
Although the United States has established many economic organizations, one thing the United States knows very well is that economic interests alone cannot be relied on. Because economic interests belong to you and the United States, but in the final analysis, whoever belongs to them depends on their strength, and whoever has thicker arms belongs to them.
Therefore, the real core organization of the United States is not various economic organizations, but military organizations. The military organization is the strong link of the entire Western world, while the economic organization may only be an institution for the distribution of interests. So looking at it this way, the importance of NATO, a military organization, is irreplaceable for the United States.
The existence of NATO was originally to fight against the Warsaw Pact. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Warsaw Pact also disintegrated, but NATO has grown stronger and stronger. The core reason here is that for the United States, NATO is not so much an organization to deal with external threats, but rather an organization for the United States to control its internal members.
With NATO's kidnapping and control of these countries in terms of security, the United States is much tougher when it comes to speaking. Because of decades of construction, in Europe, the intelligence system and military command system are almost all deeply controlled by the United States. If you want to get rid of it, you may not be able to get rid of it, because for the leaders of small countries, once you become an opponent of the interests of the United States, you never know, which will come first, tomorrow or accidents.
the iron curtain has fallen
Against such a background, only Charles de Gaulle of France has actually left NATO in history. Although France did not publicly withdraw from NATO in name while he was in office, France blatantly withdrew from NATO's military integration organization and the NATO Military Council in 1966. Since 1967, it has stopped sharing NATO's military expenditures and stationed the US military in 1966. expelled from France.
The reason why France can do this is not only because they have Charles de Gaulle, but more importantly, in 1960 a few years ago, France's first atomic bomb was successfully detonated, which gave them confidence in military security. Say no to the US and NATO.
However, with the end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the Soviet Union, it was obvious to the naked eye that the United States dominated the direction of world development. Seeing that the West was carve up the huge interests of the disintegration of the Soviet Union, France returned to the NATO Military Council in 1995. When Qi was president, he rejoined the NATO military integration organization in 2009, and once again became a small follower of the United States in terms of military security.
With nuclear weapons, France, one of the five permanent members of the United Nations, is like this. Basically, other European countries have no better choice. This is the real reason for the existence of NATO. It is not because Europe needs the protection of the United States, but because the United States needs to control Europe through NATO. In fact, the United States has successfully done this.
The European intelligence system and military command system are all deeply involved in the construction of the United States. Therefore, in the past few years, the phones of leaders of European countries have been monitored, and European countries have increasingly lacked independence in decision-making at critical moments. Always put the interests of the United States first, so it seems not difficult to understand.
Now Finland and Sweden are joining the ranks. Finland and Sweden, which were neutral countries during World War II, obviously could continue to remain neutral, but they couldn't wait to join NATO. What they fancy may not be the protection of military security, but the next step of the US strategy, which will make They have no choice.
If this matter was not clear before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it can be seen very clearly now, that is, in Europe, along the NATO border, an iron curtain has fallen again.
What can be seen is the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and what is invisible is that the economic and financial ties between Russia and Europe are being cut off one by one under the impetus of the United States and the United Kingdom. The first thing to cut off is the connection of the financial system, then the channel of non-governmental communication, and finally the most difficult energy channel.
Perhaps the energy channel will remain for a long time, and it may not even be completely cut off,But when the economic and trade relations between Russia and Europe become less and less, the necessity for both sides to maintain these cooperations becomes less and less.
At this time, economic laws and market principles have begun to fail. There is no talk of the lowest cost or priority of efficiency. Everything must give way to hatred and struggle. Obviously, the Iron Curtain between Russia and Europe has fallen, and the It's getting thicker.
At this time, what Finland and Sweden face is not the security threat from Russia, but their own economic development. They must make a choice in terms of strategic direction, whether to choose Russia or the United States. From the perspective of Finland and Sweden, there is no need to think about this issue, and the United States must be chosen.
Russia itself needs to move closer to the east economically, which is completely different from the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. During the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, Finland and Sweden were geographically considered to be in the middle of the two powerhouses. Maintaining neutrality allowed both sides to take advantage of each other. Now that Russia itself has become a supporting role, it is impossible for Finland and Sweden to follow suit.
So Finland and Sweden need to think about how to appear more sincere? Join NATO and hand over all your independence. This is the vote of Finland and Sweden.
The future NATO will still be a military organization in name, but in reality, economically, it may be an internal circulation system dominated by the United States. And the economic cooperation between NATO members and the outside world is likely not to be as autonomous as it is now. After all, Russia's energy cooperation can be cut, what else is the Iron Curtain cut?
New Cold War
Looking at it now, with NATO as the backing, it is relatively easy to cut to the west. The will of the United States can be said to have been fully implemented and implemented this time. And Ukraine has become an unimportant point. Its mission is to help complete this cutting and harvesting. In the future, whether it will be used as a gap in the Iron Curtain, as a strategic buffer, or as a strategic communication depends on Russia. Ou's final game and choice.
No matter how you look at it, the overall situation between Russia and Europe is actually settled. Unless something happens to the United States, it will be difficult to find any new tricks. The real problem is the east and the Middle East.
The United States is in the Middle East, and now it does not have the strength to bring down the Iron Curtain. Arab countries will absolutely not choose anyone this time, and it is useless for the United States to force them to take sides. Then there are Iran and Turkey. If there is no accident, Turkey, as a NATO country, may be taken down sooner or later.
And Iran has not yet negotiated the Iran nuclear agreement. From the perspective of history and reality, if the United States can prevent Iran from becoming the biggest anti-American in the Middle East, it will be considered the greatest strategic success. Judging from the binding of Iran's strategic interests, this is basically impossible.
On the whole, the best choice for the United States in the Middle East is to let nature take its course and not force these countries to choose sides, otherwise they will probably be injured. The rest is the problem of the east, which is a little more complicated, because the industrial chain and supply chain in the east are actually a whole. The United States, Japan and South Korea together only have a part of it, and the other part can neither be obtained nor destroyed. , can't replace it.
Don't underestimate this understanding. This is the true understanding that the United States has exchanged with blood and tears since the trade conflict in 2018. So this also makes the United States a bit in a dilemma. It took so much effort to come up with such a new Cold War concept, and it has been made public for so many years. The price paid is huge. Now it can only bite the bullet and go all the way to the dark .
The most clever compromise that the United States can think of is to allow some countries to overlap between the China-led RCEP and the US-led Indo-Pacific economic framework, which can form a buffer.
However, the successful experience of NATO will definitely stimulate the United States to make inferences. In Asia, is it necessary to build a new version of NATO to increase military security control over allies? If allies do not have such needs, the United States can tailor them to create such needs.
Now the U.S. already has this preliminary idea, and a new trilateral security partnership mechanism based in the Indo-Pacific region "AUKUS" established by the U.S., the U.K., and Australia has taken shape. To be honest, these three countries are already the core members of the Five Eyes alliance, and creating a new security alliance is purely superfluous. But if you establish a core framework first, and then recruit people into the team, then this is a very necessary step.
The two biggest problems right now are Japan and India. These two are one of the core members of the new US Indo-Pacific strategy. It is a matter for the US to draw Japan into a new military security organization. But for Japan, what needs to be considered is the negative effects of doing so, because Japan has everything under control and there is no need to do anything extra. As the overlapping parts of the two economic cooperation organizations, Japan and South Korea also need to carry out industrial chain and supply chain cooperation. Playing with fire should not be too exciting. This is a scruple of the United States.
The other is India. The United States wants to bring India into a new military security organization, but as we all know, unless the United States listens to India's arrangements in this organization, it may be difficult for the United States to engage India.
The United States and India are a natural pair. What India cares about is the transfer of the industrial chain, and what the United States thinks is that it must first obtain control. These two things, in their eyes, are major events that are prerequisites for each other. reconcile contradictions. So they flatter each other on the surface, but in fact they guard each other in private.
During the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, India was the leader of the Non-Aligned Movement. If India wants to do so, it must be a pole of the world, not a vassal. This was the case 50 years ago, and it is even more so now. To be honest, India has a high spirit. We can support this idea. Even if we are not friends with us, there is no need to be opponents. India is the opposite of the United States. Even if it is not a big brother, it cannot be a grandson.
Therefore, in the situation before the United States, it is difficult for the United States in the Asia-Pacific region to be as clean as Russia and Europe. This is determined by the depth of interests. Very deep, this is exactly the opposite of Europe, so sacrifice Europe, anyway, with NATO holding a gun to the back, sacrifice is sacrifice.
This approach is very different from that of the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Back then, the US-Soviet Cold War was dominated by confrontation, with little cooperation. But the current situation is that the United States wants to confront it in an all-round way, but it is just like encountering Tai Chi. No matter what hard moves, they just can't use their strength, which is very difficult.
In the new cold war of the United States, these allies in the Asia-Pacific should thank their opponents for creating a living space for cooperation between the two sides. Otherwise, they will only be kidnapped by security like Eastern European countries, and they will go all the way to the dark.
Will the United States and Russia join hands again?
Russia is currently at odds with the United States and Europe, but the situation is changing, and we cannot hope that they will continue to fight. And from a strategic point of view, in the long run, with the changes in the strength of China and the United States, what we must be most vigilant about in the future is actually the United States and Russia joining forces again.
Of course, this incident is not groundless. During the Trump period, the relationship between the United States and Russia was actually passable. As we all know, Trump is an old fan of Putin. If two years later, Trump really makes a comeback, especially if the United States is really at a disadvantage in the competition, then it is not impossible for the United States and Russia to cooperate.
In fact, the biggest reason for the current Sino-Russian strategic cooperation is that the United States is the strongest, and it wants to attack from both sides, so back-to-back strategic cooperation between China and Russia is an inevitable choice. But if one day, the United States encounters a major problem, an economic crisis breaks out, and its strength seriously declines, then its strategic pressure on the west will also weaken. Strategically, cooperation between the United States and Russia will also become an inevitable choice.
Because all this did happen decades ago, but it was we who took the initiative to make a strategic choice and reset the international balance.
In the late 1960s, the United States was mired in the quagmire of the Vietnam War. At this time, the balance between the United States and the Soviet Union had tilted more and more towards the Soviet Union, and the Soviet Union's ambitions were gradually expanding, threatening us many times. At that time, we took the initiative to create an opportunity for ping-pong diplomacy to rebalance this kind of international relations. Only then did Kissinger visit China and the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States.
It can be seen from the historical background at that time that the biggest driving factor was the strength of the Soviet Union and the weakness of the United States, which was a strategic prerequisite. After seeing this essence clearly, and looking at the current development trend of China and the United States, if we look at the problem with a long-term strategic perspective, we must have a clear understanding of Russia's loyalty.
If the United States continues to be strong, that’s all. If the United States declines, there may be a day when Russia and the United States will cooperate again. After all, international relations themselves are developing and advancing through changes. Again, there are no long-term friends between countries, only long-term interests.
at last
Now that we have talked about the issue of Russia, if you ask me now, do you support Russia? Then I definitely support it, because what Russia is doing now is a struggle against hegemony, and we ourselves are victims of hegemony. To support it. Especially in the future, if Russia and Ukraine become a protracted war, it is necessary to ensure that Russia will not be dragged down.
But strategic resources are limited after all, and our most important thing is to base ourselves on ourselves. This is also a lesson left to us by the over-expansion of the Soviet Union. Putting core resources on internal development and strengthening ourselves is much more important than pinning our hopes on others and changes in the external environment.
Regardless of whether it is the former allies of the Soviet Union or the current allies of the United States, their encounters have given us the greatest enlightenment that the mountains will fall, and the water will flow. It is better to rely on yourself than anyone else.
最近几天，东亚成为全球瞩目的焦点。
两场峰会分别在东亚两大强国中国日本举行。
在中国举行的是中国与中亚五国峰会，在日本举行的是七个小矮人的G7峰会。
中国与中亚在努力推动地区经济发展和繁荣稳定，日本G7峰会在千方百计为俄乌冲突火烧浇油，并准备制造下一场战争。
5月20日，乌克兰演员总统泽连斯基搭乘法国政府专机，从沙特阿拉伯吉达国际机场起飞驾临日本广岛，出席G7峰会。
日本专门铺设了红地毯进行迎接，体现了重视程度，未来几天日本首相岸田文雄将与泽连斯基举行正式会谈。
随后，泽连斯基将如西方圣主一般（当然，美国除外），挨个会见其他国家领导人，并且向他们提出支持乌克兰的种种要求。
此前，为寻求更多武器，泽连斯基已相继访问了英国、法国、意大利和德国等国。
5月13日，泽连斯基访问意大利和梵蒂冈，会见意大利总统马塔雷拉、总理梅洛尼和方济各教皇。意大利表态支持乌克兰加入欧盟，重申将为乌提供军事和人道主义援助。
5月14日，泽连斯基访问德国，德国宣布乌克兰危机爆发以来最大规模的一揽子军援计划，将向乌提供总额为27亿欧元的军事援助，内容包括30辆“豹1”坦克、20辆“黄鼠狼”步兵战车、15辆猎豹式防空坦克和近100辆装甲车。
5月14日晚，泽连斯基访问法国，与马克龙总统共进晚餐。法国将在数周内向乌提供数十辆装甲车和轻型坦克，并帮助乌增强防空能力。
5月15日，泽连斯基访问英国，英国承诺援助乌克兰远程攻击型无人机，“推动”美国援助F-16先进战斗机。
5月19日，泽连斯基在沙特阿拉伯出席了第32届阿盟峰会。在发言中，他指责阿拉伯世界对俄罗斯侵略乌克兰视而不见，反而继续和俄罗斯合作。好笑的是，叙利亚、阿联酋等国领导人连同声传译的耳机都没戴上！
这种姿态的涵义非常直接：不管你放什么厥词，我们根本不听。
现在的世界格局已经非常明朗，乌克兰获得了美国欧盟等西方世界的支持，但并没有得到东方阵营和阿拉伯世界的同情。
5月19日，七国领导人同意对俄罗斯实施新制裁，目标是“使俄罗斯无法获得用于支持其战争机器的G7国家技术、工业设备和服务”。制裁措施包括限制“在战场上对俄至关重要”的物品出口以及打击被控帮助俄罗斯向前线运送物资的实体等。
总体而言，这次西方七国峰会，几乎开成了反俄大会。中国当然是不可缺少的话题，但俄罗斯尚未俯首，七国还没有腾出手来全力对付中国，所以相关措辞还是稍显含蓄。
值得一提的是，七国领导人加欧盟女管家的合影，背景是白色花圈！我们必须感谢小日本的鬼畜文化，又把西方拉进坑里！
所谓七国集团，法国尚有独立意志，意大利弱势许多，德国朔尔茨政府对美国简直是俯首帖耳唯命是从。
至于英国加拿大本来就和美国同气连枝，都是盎格鲁撒克逊阵营；日本是美国控制的一条狗而已。
因此，七国集团做出什么决策都不意外！
就在本次七国峰会前，俄乌双方围绕巴赫霍特的争夺战到了最后关头。
有消息显示俄罗斯一天之内被击落四架战机，还有两名上校指挥员牺牲。可想而知牺牲巨大！
2023年5月16日至17日，中国欧亚事务特别代表李辉访问乌克兰，与乌克兰方面多为高官展开会谈。据媒体传出来的消息显示，乌克兰公布的提出了停战的四个条件：
1、乌克兰方面要求所有占领领土被归还；
2、俄罗斯必须承担大量的战争损失；
3、必须撤回所有俄罗斯军队；
4、所有涉及到发动战争的俄罗斯人必须接受国际法庭的审判。
站在乌克兰的角度，提出上述条件完全说的过去，但很显然，如果按照这个条件谈停战，俄罗斯肯定不会同意。
对于俄罗斯而言，俄乌可以停战，但肯定不会为了停战而无原则让步。最底线的一个问题是，目前赫尔松、扎波罗热、顿涅茨克、卢甘斯克、克里米亚五个已经公投加入俄罗斯的州，乌克兰必须承认俄罗斯的主权。
这是双方较量的焦点。
在厮杀到精疲力竭之前，猛兽不可能放弃自己的猎物。
美国北约的目的是消耗俄罗斯，乌克兰蒙受多大损失并不重要。乌克兰泽连斯基很明显是傀儡政权。
既然如此，战争就会继续，不可能结束。
作为对七国集团反俄态度的回应，5月20日，正在乌克兰巴赫穆特鏖战的瓦格纳雇佣军团首领普里戈津在社交平台上公开宣布，该集团作战人员已经100%的控制巴赫穆特地区！
普里戈津称：瓦格纳作战人员全部出于自愿，感谢默默支持的俄罗斯民众和俄罗斯总统普京给予的为国家效力的机会。
5月21日凌晨，俄罗斯发布声明称，“普京祝贺‘瓦格纳’的突击部队以及为他们提供必要支持和侧翼掩护的俄罗斯武装部队的所有军人完成了解放阿尔乔莫夫斯克（乌方称巴赫穆特）的行动。”
此前，乌克兰在巴赫穆特发动大反攻，但遭到俄罗斯的强力阻击。双方围绕最后一平方公里，较量的尸横遍野，满城废墟。
至此，这场长达半年的城市攻坚战落下帷幕。
俄军选择这一天宣布胜利，显然是为了在与西方世界的博弈中展示力量！
巴赫穆特对俄乌战局的影响非常大，重要性不容低估。
正因如此，这座城市才成为双方的绞肉机，半年的争夺把北约为乌克兰训练的精锐消耗一空。乌克兰方面损失了几十个旅。
5月 8日，乌克兰武装部队总司令扎卢日尼在第聂伯罗彼得罗夫斯克地区的乌克兰武装部队东部集团的一个指挥所受重伤，至今生死难料。
据乌克兰方面称总司令住在最好的军事临床医院，包括外国专家在内的医生们正在紧张地抢救他的生命。
连总司令都重伤濒死，战局惨烈可想而知！
尽管死伤无数代价惨重，但北约依然支持乌克兰坚守此城。
巴赫穆特位于乌克兰东部，是一个重要的工业城市和交通枢纽，曾经是乌克兰最大的铁矿石加工中心之一。
这一地区对俄乌双方都具有重要的战略意义。
俄军占领巴赫穆特的战略价值奇大无比：
控制交通要道：巴赫穆特位于乌克兰东部地区的重要交通干线上，占领该地区可以控制该干线，从而使俄军可以更加容易地调动部队和物资。
削弱敌人防线：巴赫穆特地区是乌克兰东部重要阵地，占领该地区可以削弱敌人的防线，为俄军在乌克兰东部的进攻提供更有利的条件。
改善士气：占领重要城市可以提高俄军士气，增强其在冲突中的信心和决心。
乌克兰失去巴赫穆特，将严重影响乌克兰武装的信心，甚至影响西方支持乌克兰的信心！
失去巴赫穆特，意味着乌克兰的防线将大幅度向西退却！
不过，汉唐智库评论员认为，美国北约支持乌克兰的态度不会改变！
因为，目前，美国已经深度裹挟欧盟。
法国和德国是欧盟的两架马车，但在欧盟内部的影响力已经被美国扶持的新欧盟成员稀释。德国和法国在面对俄乌冲突的时候，立场和态度也存在分歧。
因此，法国期望的欧盟战略自主，恐怕遥遥无期。
既然失去了战略自主，那就只能接受现实，现实就是先享受一口核污染的空气。
此前，4月25日，英国国防部宣布已向乌克兰输送了数千枚“挑战者”-2坦克炮弹，其中包括贫铀穿甲弹。
5月13日，俄军对乌克兰西部城市赫梅利尼茨基发动空袭，该目标疑似为一个弹药库。空袭引发剧烈爆炸，升腾起核爆一样的蘑菇云。有人据此推测，该目标储存着英国提供给乌克兰的贫铀弹。
5月19日，俄罗斯联邦安全会议秘书尼古拉·帕特鲁舍夫说，“西方提供给乌克兰的贫铀弹被摧毁所导致的辐射云正在飘向西欧。这将给欧洲带来堪比轰炸广岛和长崎的灾难。”
为了安定人心，波兰国家原子能局称：“目前，波兰的辐射水平正常。波兰境内未出现对人类健康和生命或者对环境的危害。”
或许，这是俄罗斯在释放烟雾弹来影响欧盟的人心。
即便这次是虚惊一场，如果战争继续这样打下去，人类距离核战争还远吗？
俄乌战争如果演变为核战争，除了离岸观火的美国，亚欧大陆将无一人得利！
亚欧大陆团结起来，瓦解盎格鲁撒克逊人的战争阴谋！
美俄合作，很意外吗？
俄罗斯卫星通讯社近日发文，2022年，美国在对俄罗斯实施经济制裁的背景下，仍从俄罗斯购买了价值10亿美元的浓缩铀。
报道称，在铀浓缩这一领域，美国政府“显然未能找到替代方案”。美政府对俄罗斯采取的经济制裁中，有意避开了浓缩铀这一领域。
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“给你鼓掌的，不一定就是你朋友”，也有可能是准备背后打你黑枪的人。
不晓得这个道理广大软体动物门头足纲动物们明白不明白，反正我只要搜索这一类物种，多半标签里都会有一条：“怎么做好吃”。
美国虽然也搞了很多经济组织，但是有一点美国心里很清楚，光靠经济利益，是靠不住的。因为经济利益这个东西怎么说呢，是你的，也是美国的，但归根结底是谁的，最后还得靠实力说话，谁胳膊粗就是谁的。
所以美国真正核心的组织，不是各种各样的经济组织，而是军事组织。军事组织才是整个西方世界的强力纽带，而经济组织可能只是利益分配的机构。所以这么一看的话，北约这个军事组织的重要性，对于美国来说就是不可替代的。
北约的存在，本是为了对抗华约，苏联解体后，华约也就解体了，但是北约却越来越壮大。这里面核心的原因，对于美国来说，与其说北约是个为了应对外部威胁的组织，恐怕还不如说是美国为了控制内部成员的组织。
有了北约在安全方面对这些国家的绑架和控制，美国说起话来，要硬气多了。因为几十年的建设下来，在欧洲，情报系统和军事指挥系统，几乎都是由美国深度控制。想摆脱可能都摆脱不了，因为对于小国的领导人而言，一旦成为美国利益的反对者，你永远不知道，明天和意外，哪个会先到来。
铁幕已经落下
在这样的背景下，历史上只有法国的戴高乐，曾经在事实上脱离过北约。在他任上法国虽然名义上没有公开退出北约这个组织，但是法国于1966年公然退出了北约军事一体化机构，退出了北约军事委员会，并从1967年起不再分担北约军费，还将美国驻军驱逐出了法国。
而法国之所以能这么干，除了因为他们有个戴高乐之外，更重要的是在几年前的1960年，法国的第一颗原子弹爆炸成功，这让他们在军事安全上有了底气，可以对美国和北约说不。
但是随着冷战的结束，苏联解体之后，肉眼可见的，由美国主导了世界发展的方向，眼看着西方在瓜分苏联解体的巨大利益，法国于1995年又重新回到了北约军事委员会，在萨科齐担任总统时期，于2009年又重新加入了北约军事一体化机构，在军事安全上，再次成为了美国的小跟班。
有核武器，身为联合国五常之一的法国尚且如此，欧洲其他国家基本上并没有什么更好的选择。这就是北约存在的真实原因，不是因为欧洲需要美国保护，而是美国需要通过北约控制欧洲，事实上美国也是很成功的做到了这一点。
欧洲的情报系统，军事指挥系统，都是美国深度参与主导建设的，所以过去的一些年，欧洲各国的领导人电话被监控，欧洲国家在关键时刻的决策上，越来越缺乏独立性，而总是以美国利益优先，这么看起来也就不难理解了。
现在芬兰和瑞典，要加入了这个行列。作为二战时期就是中立国的芬兰和瑞典，明明可以继续保持中立，却迫不及待的加入了北约，它们看中的，可能并不是什么军事安全的保护，而是看到了美国的下一步战略，将会让它们别无选择。
如果说在俄乌冲突之前，这个事情还看不清楚，那么到现在，基本上已经可以看得很明白了，那就是在欧洲，沿着北约的边界，一道铁幕已经重新落下。
看得见的是俄乌冲突，还有看不见的地方，是俄罗斯与欧洲方向的经济和金融联系，正在美国和英国的推动下，一根一根被剪断。最先切断的是金融系统的联系，之后是民间交流的渠道，最后是最困难的能源通道。
也许能源通道还会保留很久，甚至不可能被完全切断，但是当俄欧之间的经贸关系变得越来越少，那么双方维持这些合作的必要性也就越来越低。
这个时候经济规律和市场原则都开始失效了，既不谈什么成本最低，也不搞什么效率优先，一切都要为仇恨和斗争让路，很明显，俄欧之间的铁幕就已经落下，并越来越厚了。
这个时候，摆在芬兰和瑞典面前的，其实并不是什么俄罗斯的安全威胁，而是自己的经济发展，必须在战略方向上做一个选择，是选俄罗斯，还是选美国。站在芬兰和瑞典的角度，这个问题不需要思考，肯定是选美国。
俄罗斯在经济上自身都需要向东靠拢，这跟美苏冷战时期完全不一样。美苏冷战时，芬兰和瑞典在地理上也算是两强中间，保持中立就可以左右逢源，两头通吃。现在俄罗斯自己已经成了配角，芬兰和瑞典不可能再跟着跑龙套。
所以芬兰和瑞典需要思考的是，如何才能显得更有诚意？加入北约，把自己的独立性全部交出来，这就是芬兰和瑞典的投名状。
未来的北约，名义上还是军事组织，但实际在经济上，可能就是美国主导的内循环体系。并且北约成员与外界的经济合作，很可能不会像现在这么自主。毕竟俄罗斯的能源合作都可以切割，还有什么是铁幕切不断的呢？
新形态冷战
现在来看，有了北约作为后盾，西边的切割还是比较容易的。美国的意志，这一次可以说得到了充分的贯彻和执行。而乌克兰已经成了一个并不重要的点，它的使命就是帮助完成这一次切割和收割，然后在将来，是作为一个铁幕的缺口，用作战略缓冲，还是用作战略沟通，就看俄欧最终的博弈和选择了。
不管怎么看，整个俄欧之间，其实是大局已定，除非美国出事，否则很难再翻出什么新花样了，而真正棘手的是东边和中东。
美国在中东，现在没有这个实力来落下铁幕，阿拉伯国家这回是百分百谁也不会选的，美国现在逼他们站队也没用。然后是伊朗和土耳其，土耳其不出意外的话，作为北约国家，可能迟早会被拿下。
而伊朗到现在也还没谈成伊核协议，从历史和现实的角度来看，美国如果能阻止伊朗，让它不要成为在中东最大的反美者，就算是最大的战略成功了。以伊朗战略利益的绑定来看，这基本都不太可能。
综合下来看，美国在中东最好的选择就是顺其自然，不要强求这些国家选边站队，否则受伤的很可能会是自己。那剩下的就是东边的问题，东边要复杂一点，因为东边的产业链和供应链，其实是一个整体，美国和日韩一起，也只是掌握了一部分，另外一部分既得不到，又毁不掉，还取代不了。
不要小看这个认识，这是2018年贸易冲突以来，美国用血和泪换来的真实认知。所以这也让美国有点左右为难，费尽心思才想出这么一个新冷战的构想，又公开化推进了这么多年，付出的代价是巨大的，现在只能是硬着头皮一条道走到黑了。
美国所能想到的最高明的折衷办法，就是中国主导的RCEP和美国主导的印太经济框架之间，允许一些国家重叠，这样可以形成一个缓冲。
但是北约的成功经验，一定也会刺激美国进行举一反三，在亚洲，是不是也要搞一个新版的北约，来加大军事安全上对盟友的控制？如果盟友没有这种需求，美国可以为它们量身定制，创造这种需求。
现在美国已经有了这个初步的构想，由美国，英国和澳大利亚组建的，一个立足于印太地区的新的三边安全合作伙伴机制“AUKUS（奥库斯）”已经成型。说实话，这三个国家，本来就是五眼联盟的核心成员，再搞一个新的安全联盟，纯属多此一举。但是如果先建立一个核心框架，然后再拉人入伙，那这就是很必要的一步了。
现在最大的两个问题是，日本和印度。这两个都是美国新印太战略的核心成员之一，要把日本拉入到一个新的军事安全组织里，这是美国一句话的事。但是对于日本，要考虑的是这么做的负面作用，因为日本已经尽在掌握，不需要多此一举。而日韩作为两个经济合作组织的重叠部分，还要进行产业链和供应链的合作，玩火不宜太过刺激，这是美国的一个顾忌。
另一个则是印度，美国倒是想把印度拉到一个新的军事安全组织里来，但是众所周知，除非在这个组织里，美国听印度的安排，否则美国想搞印度恐怕还有点难。
美国跟印度是天生一对，印度惦记的是产业链转移，美国想的是必须先拿到控制权，这两件事，在它们眼中都是互为前提条件的大事，实际上是一个没法调和的矛盾。所以它们在表面上相互吹捧，其实私底下又彼此防备。
在美苏冷战时期，印度就是不结盟运动的主导者，印度要做就要做世界的一极，而不是做一个附庸，50年前就是如此，现在更是如此。说实话，印度心气很高，这个想法咱们可以支持它，跟我们就算不做朋友，也没必要做对手。印度跟美国则相反，就算不当大哥，但也不能当孙子。
所以摆在美国面前的这个情况，美国在亚太，很难跟俄欧的切割那样，搞得那么干净，这是由利益的深浅决定的，美国跟俄罗斯的直接利益不大，跟亚洲的利益则很深，这跟欧洲恰好是个反的，所以牺牲一下欧洲，反正有北约拿枪顶着后背，牺牲也就牺牲了吧。
这种做法，跟美苏冷战时期的做法，已然有了很大的区别。当年美苏冷战，以对抗为主，合作可以说很少。但现在的情况是，美国倒是想全面对抗，只是就像遇到了太极一样，不管什么硬招，就是使不上劲，这就很难办。
美国的新冷战，亚太的这些盟友应该感谢它的对手，为它们创造了两边合作的生存空间，否则就只有像东欧国家那样，被安全绑架着，一条道走到黑了。
美俄还会不会再联手
当下的俄罗斯跟美国和欧洲闹得势不两立，但是形势是变化的，我们不可能寄希望于它们一直斗下去。而且从战略上讲，长远来看，随着中美实力的变化，我们未来最要警惕的，其实还是美国和俄罗斯再联手。
这件事当然也不是空穴来风，在特朗普时期，其实美俄之间的关系也还过得去，众所周知，特朗普是普京的老迷弟。如果两年之后，真的是特朗普卷土重来，尤其是美国真的在竞争中处于下风，那么美俄合作，就不是没有可能。
目前的中俄战略合作，其实最大的原因，还是因为美国最强，它要两边出击，那么中俄背靠背进行战略合作，就是一种必然的选择。但是如果有一天，美国出了大问题，爆发经济危机，实力严重下滑，那么其在西边的战略施压也必定减弱，在战略上，美俄合作，也会成为一种必然的选择。
因为这一切在几十年前，确实也曾发生过，只不过当年是我们主动进行了战略选择，重置了国际平衡。
在1960年代后期，美国深陷越战泥潭，此时美苏之间的平衡，已经越来越向苏联倾斜，而苏联的野心也是逐渐膨胀，多次威胁过我们。当时我们是主动制造了乒乓外交的机会，去重新平衡这种国际关系，这才有了基辛格访华和中美建交。
可以看到那时的历史背景，最大的推动因素，是苏强美弱，这是战略上的先决条件。看清了这个本质，再看如今的中美发展趋势，如果我们用长期的战略眼光去看问题的话，对于俄罗斯的忠诚度，我们要有清醒的认识。
美国如果继续强大也就罢了，如果美国衰落了，俄罗斯和美国之间，很可能还会有重新合作的那一天。毕竟国际关系，本身就是在变动中发展前进的。还是那句话，国与国之间，没有长久的朋友，只有长久的利益。
最后
既然说到了俄罗斯的问题，假如现在你问我，支不支持俄罗斯？那我肯定是支持的，因为俄罗斯现在做的，是反霸权主义的斗争，我们本身也是霸权主义的受害者，它不进行这样的斗争，我们也要进行，它能主动去进行斗争，那肯定要支持它。尤其是未来，如果俄乌变成持久战，那保障俄罗斯不被拖垮是必要的。
但是战略资源毕竟有限，我们最重要的事情，还是要立足于自身，这也是当年苏联过度扩张留给我们的教训。把核心资源放在内部的发展上，强大自己，比把希望寄托于别人，寄托于外部环境的变化，要重要得多。
不管是苏联曾经的盟友，还是美国现在的盟友，它们的遭遇，给我们最大的启示就是，靠山山会倒，靠水水会流，靠谁也不如靠自己。
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