Why do you say that the current situation is a major change unseen in a century?为什么说当前是百年未有之大变局？
Why do you say that the current situation is a major change unseen in a century?
The first thing is: On May 7, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida went to South Korea and started his visit for 2 days.
From the surface, it is very lively!
What kind of excitement?
In the pomp, no matter what the effect is, everyone must at least have some posture!
For example, after Fumio Kishida got off the plane, his first step was to go to the Kenchuwon in South Korea.
What is this Xianzhongyuan doing?
It is mainly to sacrifice and enshrine those who are considered by the South Korean government as patriots, national heroes, and military police. Many of them fought for Korean independence and died in the hands of the Japanese.
For example, inside, Hong Fantu is enshrined.
This person is very famous in South Korea. During the Japanese occupation of North Korea, he was the commander-in-chief of the Korean Independence Army. He led guerrillas many times to fight against the Japanese, but the Japanese were too ruthless. He couldn't fight anymore. He fled to the Soviet Union and died in Kazakhstan in 1943.
In 2021, the then South Korean government welcomed his bones back from Kazakhstan and announced a two-day national memorial service before burying his bones in Hyunchungwon.
These people and the Japanese are enemies!
But Kishida's trip is nothing.
Because the Japanese prime minister visits South Korea, he first goes to the Hyunchungwon, which has been done many times, and it is an old rule.
Make it a routine! If you don't go, it will look weird.
The media controlled by the South Korean government immediately said very excitedly: Fumio Kishida visited South Korea and was willing to pay homage to Kenchuwon, which left a very good impression on us.
Where is South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue?
I said before: He behaved too much, he was scolded very much in Korea!
Therefore, Yin Xiyue felt that Kishida's routine work was very important, and he looked overjoyed, thinking that Kishida really gave him too much face!
After the meeting, Yin Xiyue hurriedly said: South Korea must "get rid of the thinking that we cannot cooperate without rectifying history."
What about Kishida?
Immediately say: I express my "sadness" on historical issues.
Invading a country, causing great suffering to the country, and only expressing "sorrow" in the end, this kind of statement is too nonsense.
What if the Japanese really wanted to show repentance?
Kneeling on the ground, knocking his head to bleed, begging for forgiveness!
If he is willing to forgive, we all have to give this kind of man a thumbs up and praise him for his generosity in the most respectful tone!
Not even an apology, just "distressed", what does that mean?
Unexpectedly, the South Korean officials were overjoyed again, proudly, and announced to the outside world: This was mentioned by Fumio Kishida on his own initiative! It was purely "his own wish", and the two countries "did not communicate on this beforehand"!
mean?
They feel that if Fumio Kishida can say the word "distressed", it is already a great success!
What kind of feeling, needless to say here.
Anyway, from Syngman Lee to Moon Jae-in, the previous presidents of South Korea, no matter whether he is conservative or progressive, whether he is clean or corrupt, have never done something, this time Yin Xiyue has done it!
Also proud of it!
Yin Xiyue entertained Fumio Kishida at the state banquet
Can't help but remind people of one person: Li Wanyong!
This person is well-known in South Korea, and he is very comparable to the protagonist kneeling in front of our Yue Temple: he was the one who managed the treaty that North Korea was annexed by Japan!
Because he was so hated, he was assassinated by a man.
This patriotic assassin from North Korea is called Li Zaiming.
Because of the assassination of Li Wanyong, he was sentenced to death and enshrined in the Xianzhongyuan where Kishida had just been.
It’s a bit of a coincidence: now leading the Koreans, constantly criticizing Yin Xiyue’s behavior of licking the sun and beauty, his name is also Li Zaiming!
South Korea is now the largest opposition party, the leader of the Common Democratic Party!
No matter how Koreans look at it, at least two of them are happy:
Americans are happy.
The Japanese are happy.
why?
The original relationship between Japan, South Korea and the United States, as we have introduced before, is roughly like this:
America is an ally of Japan (Dad);
America is an ally of South Korea (Dad);
But what about Japan and South Korea?
But not only is he not an ally, but to some extent, he also has the taste of an enemy!
For a long time, the United States has been very happy with the relationship between Japan and South Korea! Because if the two become friends and the relationship is too good, the lives of Americans in East Asia may not be so easy!
How would you describe this relationship?
It should be something like this: before, South Korea was an ally of the United States, and Japan was an ally of the United States. If the United States is the father, then South Korea and Japan are brothers.
But now?
The Americans spoke: South Korea, Japan will be your father from now on, what about me? Count your grandpa.
When did this happen?
Last July, when NATO held a summit, Biden called Yin Xiyue and Kishida Fumio to attend, and then held a tripartite meeting!
This is the live scene at that time. Everyone pay attention to the expressions of these three people. After watching it, everything will be clear!
Do Koreans dare to refuse such a thing?
dare not.
Because on its territory, 25,000 American soldiers are stationed.
There is one more terrible thing: the South Korean president has no wartime command of his own army!
Armies are made to fight.
Without the command power in wartime, it means that you have no power at all!
The American knife is always on the neck of the South Korean president.
So whether it was Yin Xiyue's visit to Japan last time or Fumio Kishida's visit to South Korea this time, they are actually confirming one thing: after more than 70 years of independence, South Korea has once again crawled at the feet of Japan under the arrangement of the United States!
Why does this happen?
The reason is simple: against us!
Therefore, these two visits must not be underestimated, because it means that the situation in Northeast Asia has changed a lot!
But compared with the second thing, this change is really too small, it can even be said to be insignificant!
What's the matter?
Look at this news: From May 18th to 19th, the China-Central Asia Summit will be held in Xi'an, and the capitals of the five Central Asian countries will come to China to participate in the summit.
This meeting is the first time since the establishment of diplomatic relations 31 years ago that the heads of state of the six countries held a summit in a physical form. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it was "a milestone".
Why do you say that compared with this incident, the Americans match up Japan and South Korea, and then force Japan to be the father of South Korea, and it is insignificant to be the father of Japan?
This again involves peeling back the second layer of the onion.
Let’s start with one word: the prosperity of the Han and Tang Dynasties.
Even after a thousand years, it is still fascinating.
Although there are many dynasties in Chinese history, many dynasties almost had a period of glory, which is what everyone calls a prosperous age.
But none of them can compare with the prosperity of the Han and Tang Dynasties.
Because the Han and Tang Dynasties were the two peaks of our ancient civilization.
Behind it, what secret is hidden?
First two pictures.
The first is a map of the territory of the Han Dynasty.
The second is the territory map of the Tang Dynasty
Then compare them with the other two pictures.
The first map is the Song Dynasty map.
The second is a map of the territory of the Ming Dynasty.
The Song and Ming dynasties are considered very good dynasties in Chinese history.
But why do people think they can't compare with Han Tang?
From the picture, you will find such a phenomenon: the territory of the Han and Tang Dynasties includes a part of the Western Regions including Central Asia; but neither the Song Dynasty nor the Ming Dynasty!
Speaking of this, some people may say: Those places in Central Asia are quite closed and backward, and the environment is quite harsh. They are either high mountains or deserts. Even if there is an oasis, it is nothing.
Not much with it, not much without it.
If you think so, you are wrong!
Because we have to think things upside down: those places in Central Asia, the environment is very harsh, either high mountains, or deserts, even if there is a little oasis, there is nothing, why the Han and Tang dynasties, desperately, have to put it Into the territory?
This involves peeling the third layer of the onion again.
In fact, there is only one reason behind this: the Silk Road!
Central Asia back then was very different from Central Asia in our impression now!
Because the trade route passes through, there are rich and prosperous places along the route!
To what extent?
During the Tang Dynasty, there was a rebellion in a country named Xiaobolu. The imperial court sent General Gao Xianzhi to lead the local border troops stationed there to fight against it.
In the edict, the imperial court asked Gao Xianzhi to send 10,000 infantry and cavalry.
The results of it?
A strange thing happened: all the soldiers sent out had horses, and even those who were infantrymen according to the "organization" all brought their own private horses!
All became cavalry!
You know: Even in ancient times, a horse was quite expensive, and ordinary people couldn't afford it.
How to describe this matter?
Almost everyone has a Ferrari!
Why was the Anxi garrison in the Tang Dynasty so rich?
Because of the Silk Road!
But when did these places change their impression and become closed and backward areas in everyone's impression?
This has to start with a big change more than 1200 years ago.
Anshi Rebellion!
We all know: after the Anshi Rebellion, the Tang army was busy suppressing the rebellion, and Tubo occupied the Hexi Corridor!
In the Tang Dynasty at that time, the territory shrunk to roughly such an extent.
With this incident, a major turning point in history also took place: what turning point?
During the Tang Dynasty, great breakthroughs had been made in navigation technology, and it was possible to engage in ocean voyages. But people still had "path dependence" before, so the Silk Road was still as prosperous as before.
But now that the Hexi Corridor has been occupied, and the Silk Road has been cut off, some people think: the commercial roads on land cannot go through, why not go by sea?
So the Maritime Silk Road appeared.
Compared with land transportation, sea transportation has great advantages: the sea is like a highway, and it can hold a lot of things. Compared with the land Silk Road, there is a long string of camels, thousands of miles of dust, and I don’t know where it is convenient.
With the rise of the Maritime Silk Road, the Land Silk Road has slowly declined.
To what extent did it decline in the end?
We all know that Dunhuang was an important town on the land Silk Road, and it was once very prosperous.
But in the Ming Dynasty, because there was not much trade volume, and it was far away from Jiuquan and Jiayuguan. Although there were oases, the Ming Dynasty was really not interested in guarding such a small border town, so they simply withdrew the locals and directly gave the city of Dunhuang Obsolete.
What was the result of this change?
This has to peel off the fourth layer of onion: After the rise of the Maritime Silk Road, not only China, but even the whole world have undergone great changes!
What has changed in China?
In terms of economic structure, the inland and the north are beginning to decline! But the coast and the south, start to rise!
This brings up a difficult problem: the economic center of gravity has shifted to the south, but the main national defense threat is in the north. What should we do?
For a country, what is the most convenient way to conduct national defense?
Defense and economic centers overlap.
This overlap means that civilian power can be brought into play when conducting military operations.
Let me give you a positive example: the Battle of Laoshan.
In July 1984, Vietnam quietly assembled heavy troops, preparing to seize the Laoshan area. At that time, our artillery group launched a fierce shelling on the Vietnamese army positions, and more than 700 cannons fired at the same time.
On July 12 alone, 3,400 tons of artillery shells were poured into the positions of the Vietnamese army.
The artillery fought wonderfully and enjoyed the fight, but soon there were not enough shells, and it was too late to rely on the PLA's own transport vehicles. What should I do?
When the local government issued an order, all cadres at all levels were dispatched to load all the vehicles in their units with shells.
However, the military situation is urgent, and this is not enough. Some people simply run on the road, as long as they can hold shells, they will stop the vehicles when they see them, and ask these vehicles to transport shells as quickly as possible.
The situation at that time was very touching. For example, there was a boss who was in the business of notoginseng medicinal materials. When his truck was stopped on the road, there was a whole truckload of medicinal materials in the truck, worth nearly 40,000 yuan. It was an incredible number at the time. After receiving the news, he immediately unloaded the goods on the spot, and then went to the warehouse to transport the shells.
There are many vehicles that unload goods on the spot: those carrying cigarettes and pigs.
Soon there was a long queue of vehicles on the road, and truckloads of shells were transported to the front line, so that the artillery could continue to fire violently.
To give another negative example: In 1081 AD, the Song Dynasty attacked Xia with five routes.
In 1081, during the reign of Emperor Shenzong of the Song Dynasty, the Northern Song Dynasty marched on five routes, dispatching more than 300,000 troops, from Longdong and northern Shaanxi to the capital of Xixia, which is now Yinchuan, and the distance between the dispatched location and the destination was only a few hundred miles.
As a result, the Song army had all attacked the city of Yinchuan, and Xixia was almost unable to support it. At this time, it was snowing heavily, and the Song army had no clothes and food. Not only did the Song army fail to become Xixia, but the entire army collapsed, losing more than 200,000 soldiers.
Back then, the Han and Tang dynasties were able to march across Central Asia with large armies, fighting thousands of miles away, almost invincible. Yinchuan City is very close to Xi'an, why couldn't the Song Dynasty attack it?
The reason behind it was that at that time, the overland Silk Road had been broken.
When the Silk Road was still on land, trade exchanges were frequent, and when wars were urgent, the Han and Tang dynasties could requisition the transport capacity of caravans in addition to their own transport capacity, so that they could fight thousands of miles away.
But in the Song Dynasty, the Song army could only rely on its own capacity to transport food and clothing.
How can this efficiency compare with a professional commercial transportation team? So at the most critical moment of the war, the Northern Song Dynasty lost the chain.
In Chinese history, why did such a phenomenon appear: During the Han and Tang dynasties, the military capabilities of the Central Plains dynasty were very strong, and they sent troops thousands of miles away at every turn, hitting Central Asia and so on. But after the Tang Dynasty, whether it was the Song Dynasty or the Ming Dynasty, it seemed that they were not so capable of fighting.
The reason behind it is actually that China's main foreign trade route has switched.
But the national defense threats in ancient China were all in the north.
In the Han and Tang Dynasties, because of the presence of the land Silk Road, business travelers frequently shuttled back and forth, so the transportation capacity was sufficient, and they were able to fight tough and big battles everywhere. Naturally, they were extremely powerful, and people were full of confidence and blood.
What about after the Tang Dynasty?
The situation is similar to that of the Northern Song Dynasty's five-way expedition against Xia. The people are still descendants of the ancient people, and the equipment of the troops is not bad. I can fight.
This is why the heyday of the Han and Tang Dynasties was the pinnacle of ancient Chinese civilization, and no other dynasties have surpassed it since then.
So, with the Maritime Silk Road, what kind of changes have taken place in the world?
Let's start with us!
There is a country that was inconspicuous before, and it has begun to rise!
who?
Japan!
A large number of Song Dynasty merchants went to Japan to sell silk, lacquerware, ironware, medicinal materials, and tea! Even spread agricultural and fishery technology to Japan!
Many people think that after the Battle of Baijiang Village, Japan sent a large number of Tang envoys to China, and then it developed.
Japan really began to develop in the Song Dynasty! After the rise of the Maritime Silk Road!
Here is an example: On New Year’s Eve, Japanese people have the custom of eating buckwheat noodles, which they call “Nian Yue Soba”.
Where did this soba noodles come from?
In the Southern Song Dynasty, a Hangzhou native named Xie Guoming went to Japan to do business and settled in Hakata Port, which is now Kyushu Island. At that time, the Japanese were living a hard life. Xie Guoming used buckwheat noodle temples to help the poor on New Year's Eve, so that everyone could have a full meal during the Chinese New Year.
Later, the Japanese gradually felt that eating soba noodles on New Year’s Eve not only brought good fortune and luck, but also cured diseases and misfortunes. Later, this custom became popular in Japan.
ImageEvery August, the Hakata District of Fukuoka Prefecture, Japan will also hold the "Da Kusu Thousand Light Festival", and people will carry the statue of Xie Guoming out to parade the streets.
Why didn't it happen before, but in the Ming Dynasty, there will be Japanese pirates? Even during the Wanli period, Japan could dispatch troops to invade the Korean peninsula?
Behind it is actually that with the Maritime Silk Road, Japan has already started to rise!
The Meiji Restoration only accelerated this process!
It also brought about an indirect consequence: because of the rise of the Maritime Silk Road, Europe began the era of great voyages in order to bypass Ottoman Turkey and find a direct sea route to us!
How did Columbus discover America?
He didn't want to be a great geographical discoverer at all. The original purpose of his voyage was just to find a sea route to us.
So when he set sail, he also specially brought his credentials on board.
Queen Isabel of Spain to Ming Emperor!
Why did the subsequent European navigators desperately go sailing? It's all about finding us!
Why do Europeans care about this?
In the final analysis, it was the rise of the Maritime Silk Road. If it was still the Land Silk Road at that time, I am afraid that they have neither the ability nor the courage to cross the Eurasian continent from Europe and fight to the death with various nomads!
Having said that, you can peel the fifth layer of onion: What do the two things mentioned at the top mean?
The first thing means: From now on, South Korea will turn from the younger brother of the United States alongside Japan to become the younger brother of Japan.
Why does the United States arrange it like this?
We've said this many times before.
The entire Earth is mostly water, but there are two main continents: one is composed of Asia, Europe and Africa, and is about 84 million square kilometers; square kilometers.
But in terms of total population, the gap between the American continent and the Eurasian continent is even greater: the American continent has only about 1 billion people, while the Eurasian continent has a population of 6.2 billion.
Therefore, it stands to reason that the countries that rule the world should be countries located in Asia, Europe and Africa. But in fact, it is the United States of America, which is much smaller in size.
This situation is very strange: because the population of the entire American continent is not even as good as that of China.
Therefore, if the United States wants to rule the world, it must continue to provoke wars and instigate discord in the Asia, Europe and Africa continents, causing the entire Asia, Europe and Africa continents to be in turmoil. It must also deploy layers of defense lines along the coastline of this continent.
Once the Asian, European and African continents achieve internal integration and a powerful force emerges that can challenge it, then the US hegemony will enter the countdown.
So the United States is playing this game of chess.
And what about us?
It was another game of chess.
Simply put, it is: integration.
Because we are on this continent, we naturally have a convenient location, and this continent is our home and the foundation of our life, so we must find ways to increase mutual trust and cooperation between everyone to ensure peace.
Once the entire continent of Asia, Europe and Africa slowly ceases to be turbulent and achieves internal integration, then the hegemony of the United States will come to an end.
We need to do this, because in this world, there are already too many wars, poverty, famine, suffering, and the desperate eyes of orphans and widows, because if there is a mess around us, we will definitely be alone in the end.
Therefore, we must find a way to connect each block of this continent through various cooperation, especially major projects with geographical and strategic significance, to get through the two lines of Ren and Du, and to connect them thoroughly. block.
The reason is also very simple: strategic projects will lead to strategic relationships.
Having said that, we can come to a summary:
In the first sentence, I still want to repeat the point above: Compared with the upcoming summit in Xi'an, the actions of Japan and South Korea in the past two days are really too small.
One is strategic, the integration of China and Central Asia.
One is not even considered tactical, it is a half of a small peninsula on the border of the mainland and a few small islands on the edge of the Asian continent, being pushed by a maritime hegemonic country to engage in cooperation.
Although the acting is not bad, there is a bit of sincerity in it, and there is still a big question mark.
The second sentence is: The rise of sea power countries due to the decline of the land Silk Road will also decline due to the reconnection of the Eurasian and African continents.
After all, fundamentally speaking, they are all prospered because of sea trade, and of course they will also decline because of it.
And those countries that rose due to sea power will return to their original state: in the cold wind and rain, they will be reduced to the borders of this world.
Neither the United States nor Japan can escape this fate.
The third sentence is: a great reversal after a thousand years is coming to us.
A new world is about to be born: in the not-too-distant future, from the blue seas and silver sands of Southeast Asia to the snowy fields of the Arctic Ocean, from the waves of the East China Sea to the shadows of sails in the Mediterranean Sea, from the misty and rainy south of the Yangtze River to the deserts of the Middle East full of yellow sand, will soon become One.
Thousands of years later, reincarnation starts again, and a brand new world is coming.
In the end, I would like to remind everyone of that sentence: When you look at my official account, don't just watch the excitement, but also see if there is room for personal development and if there is any information worth noting.
After all, the drastic changes in the world will bring endless opportunities. Because of this drastic changes, some places will gather a lot of resources, so they will rise from the ordinary.
All we can do is to tell everyone about the changes in this world bit by bit.
The success or failure of you, or even your N-generation descendants, ups and downs, ups and downs, depends on whether you can seize the opportunity, how you will choose, and how you will do it in the next few decades.
It won't be long!
Opportunities will not wait for anyone!
This is an extremely rare era, and it is also an extremely rare opportunity. Everyone must grasp it well!
Liu Yuanchun, vice president of Renmin University of China, pointed out that the major changes unseen in a century have changed the external conditions and environment of my country's development, but more importantly, they have provided strategic space and opportunities for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. The emergence of anti-globalization trends in some countries has led to a slowdown in the growth of China's foreign demand, but it has also brought opportunities to force China to change its development mode. China has successfully launched supply-side structural reforms and vigorously promoted high-quality development. Emerging markets represented by China The rapid development of the country is bringing about the most revolutionary and positive change in the balance of international power since modern times; although the pace of global scientific and technological innovation has slowed down, the pace of China's innovation and development is accelerating, especially the world's new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation and China's Accelerate the transformation of economic development mode to form a historical intersection. China can use its vast domestic market and abundant innovative human resources to shorten the technological gap with developed countries more quickly through "learning by doing", and achieve cornering overtaking or even Changing lanes and overtaking; the profound reshaping of the global governance system has provided new space for China to participate in the reform of the global governance system. China's international discourse power is being improved. Improving global governance cannot be separated from Chinese wisdom, Chinese solutions, and Chinese power.
The "change" proposed by the official authority, a major change unseen in a century, includes five aspects: first, fundamental changes in the objects of world power; second, violent turmoil in the international structure; third, the threat of collapse of the world order; fourth, The century is undergoing major adjustments, and a new international political and economic order is gradually being established; 5. The competition of elements of the major changes is unprecedented. The fourth industrial revolution is in the ascendant, and artificial intelligence, robotics, virtual reality, and quantum technology are booming, which will profoundly change human production and lifestyle, and have an important impact on the development of the situation.
These contents mainly express the changes in the international political and economic order dominated by the United States. In my understanding, the so-called major changes unseen in a century refer to the change of the absolute advantage that the West has maintained over backward countries for a long time after entering the modern industrialized society. The absolute advantage of developed countries over developing countries has gradually turned into a relative advantage.
This is manifested in multiple levels: First, economically, at the beginning, developed countries were the center of the world economy, and the development of the world economy was controlled by developed countries, and the capitalist countries headed by the West were in a dominant position economically. Developed countries have an absolute advantage in the production of high-end finished products over emerging developing countries with resource-intensive and labor-intensive industrial primary products. On the other hand, the crisis of the capitalist economy led by the West also has an impact on the global economy. However, since the beginning of the 21st century, the gap between developed countries and developing countries has been tightened, and the ties between countries at the economic level have also deepened. The absolute advantages of developed countries at the economic level have become relative advantages. leave each other.
In terms of science and technology, the birthplace of world science and technology was Western Europe. In the long-term historical process, developed countries have been ahead of the world in terms of science and technology. The scientific computing of developed countries can be said to be a blow to developing countries. After entering the new century, with the gradual opening up of the world in science and technology, especially in the sharing of theoretical economics, the asymmetry of scientific and technological information between developed countries and developing countries has narrowed, and the sharing of technology has further reduced this gap.
At the military level, initially the capitalist countries headed by the West had an absolute military advantage. This military advantage enabled capitalist countries to turn backward countries into colonies; However, this gap is no longer absolute. Developed countries will also consume their own military resources when they take military action against developing countries. There are also more factors for developed countries to consider, including the Iraq War and the Vietnam War. .
The "change" of the "great change unseen in a century" includes five aspects: fundamental changes in the objects of world power; violent turmoil in the international structure; the threat of collapse of the world order; the century is undergoing major adjustments, and a new international political and economic order Gradually established; the competition of elements of major changes has never been seen before. The fourth industrial revolution is in the ascendant, and artificial intelligence, robotics, virtual reality, and quantum technology are booming, which will profoundly change human production and lifestyle, and have an important impact on the development of the situation. The major changes unseen in a century have changed my country's external conditions and environment, but more importantly, they have provided challenges and opportunities for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. The emergence of anti-globalization trends in some countries has led to a slowdown in the growth of China's foreign demand, but it has also brought opportunities for my country to change its development mode. China has successfully launched supply-side structural reforms and vigorously promoted high-quality development. Emerging markets represented by China The rapid development of the country is bringing about the most revolutionary and positive change in the balance of international power since modern times. The large-scale and rapid development of the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial revolution, coupled with the profound dissemination, diffusion, and scouring effects of the globalization process, has caused the world to take shape. New political, economic, social and cultural ecology.
The great changes are pregnant with the opportunity to promote the new type of economic globalization. The new type of economic globalization should be jointly participated and led by all countries in the world; we should continue to uphold and maintain the rules and regulations such as trade liberalization and multilateral trading system that have been fully proven to be correct and effective in practice, and continue to innovate, improve and develop; Hegemonism and power politics, the law of the jungle and zero-sum game should be eliminated, and the concept of extensive consultation, joint contribution and shared benefits should be upheld to truly realize democracy, equality, justice and rationality; it should be conducive to building an open world economy, promoting world peace and stability, and realizing Common development, common prosperity and common prosperity.
The major changes are giving birth to an opportunity to accelerate the reform of the global governance system. The globalization of the current world comes from the Western colonial era and has a strong color of racial oppression. This kind of globalization has caused resistance in many developing countries, making it difficult to continue to promote it. With the rise of emerging economies, the dominant position of the major western developed countries in the global economy has been replaced by emerging economies. The globalization led by traditional developed countries is bound to come to an end and needs to be adjusted. Newly industrialized countries are calling for reforms to the global governance system led by developed countries. If the global governance system led by developed countries cannot take the initiative to accept the reform demands from developing countries. Then developed countries will find ways to start anew and establish a new global governance system. This is why China's Belt and Road Initiative came into being.
The great changes have given birth to opportunities for China to lead and shape the times. The COVID-19 pandemic has unleashed a social, health, governance and economic crisis that we have not experienced in more than a century. China's response to the new crown is not so much an opportunity as a larger challenge. I think the biggest opportunity brought to China is: to give China a mirror to examine its real national strength in a realistic manner, which is an excellent opportunity to test the country's governance capabilities and governance level. If we can successfully pass this test, it will prove that China's institutional advantages and national strength are not boasted. The Chinese model is in line with the trend of world development. And the United States cannot stop this trend; if it does not pass this test or if it is extremely difficult in this test, it is also an excellent opportunity to spur reforms and lay a solid foundation for prosperity; , then there is a high probability that it will attract more hostility for its own rise and revival, set up more obstacles, trap itself in a cocoon, and fall into long-term predicament and decline. I am afraid that the people will pay the bill in the end.
The new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial revolution is accelerating the reshaping of the world, the in-depth development of economic globalization is accelerating the change of global governance, the in-depth development of multi-polarization in the world has made the international balance of power more balanced, and the intensified strategic game between major powers has promoted profound changes in the international system. The world is undergoing major changes unseen in a century. A deep understanding of the rich connotations of this "changing situation" and a firm grasp of the major opportunities brought about by the changing situation to the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation are realistic requirements for opening up a broad space for development in the new era and realizing the "two centenary" goals.
It provides strategic space and strategic opportunities for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. The emergence of anti-globalization trends in some countries has led to a slowdown in the growth of China's foreign demand, but it has also brought opportunities to force my country to change its development mode. China has successfully launched supply-side structural reforms and vigorously promoted high-quality development. Emerging markets represented by China The rapid development of the country is bringing about the most revolutionary and positive change in the balance of international power since modern times. The large-scale and rapid development of the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial revolution, coupled with the profound dissemination, diffusion, and scouring effects of the globalization process, has caused the world to take shape. New political, economic, social and cultural ecology. The new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial revolution is accelerating the reshaping of the world, the in-depth development of economic globalization is accelerating the change of global governance, the in-depth development of multi-polarization in the world has made the international balance of power more balanced, and the intensified strategic game between major powers has promoted profound changes in the international system. The world is undergoing major changes unseen in a century. A deep understanding of the rich connotations of this "changing situation" and a firm grasp of the major opportunities brought about by the changing situation to the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation are realistic requirements for opening up a broad space for development in the new era and realizing the "two centenary" goals
It provides strategic space and strategic opportunities for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. The emergence of anti-globalization trends in some countries has led to a slowdown in the growth of China's foreign demand, but it has also brought opportunities to force my country to change its development mode. China has successfully launched supply-side structural reforms and vigorously promoted high-quality development. Emerging markets represented by China The rapid development of the country is bringing about the most revolutionary and positive change in the balance of international power since modern times. The large-scale and rapid development of the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial revolution, coupled with the profound dissemination, diffusion, and scouring effects of the globalization process, has caused the world to take shape. New political, economic, social and cultural ecology. The new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial revolution is accelerating the reshaping of the world, the in-depth development of economic globalization is accelerating the change of global governance, the in-depth development of multi-polarization in the world has made the international balance of power more balanced, and the intensified strategic game between major powers has promoted profound changes in the international system. The world is undergoing major changes unseen in a century. A deep understanding of the rich connotations of this "changing situation" and a firm grasp of the major opportunities brought about by the changing situation to the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation are realistic requirements for opening up a broad space for development in the new era and realizing the "two centenary" goals
为什么说当前是百年未有之大变局？
第一件事是：5月7日，日本首相岸田文雄去了韩国，开始了访问，为期2天。
要是从表面上看，那是热闹得很啊！
怎么个热闹法呢？
在排场上，不管效果怎么样，大家至少算做了一些架势吧！
比如说岸田文雄下飞机后，第一步就去了韩国的显忠院。
这个显忠院是干嘛的呢？
主要是祭祀和供奉被韩国政府认为是爱国志士、国家功臣、军警的人。其中不少人，就是争取朝鲜独立，死在日本人手里的。
比如说在里面，就供奉着洪范图。
此人在韩国名气很大，在日本占领朝鲜的时期，他是朝鲜独立军的总司令，多次带着游击队，和日本人作战，但日本人太狠了，他实在打不下去了，就跑去了苏联，1943年死在哈萨克斯坦。
2021年时，当时的韩国政府把他的骨骸从哈萨克斯坦迎了回去，还宣布进行为期两天的国民追悼仪式，之后再把他的骨骸安葬到显忠院。
这些人和日本人，都是仇家啊！
但岸田此行，不算啥。
因为日本首相访问韩国，先要去显忠院，已经很多次了，是老规矩了。
算例行公事吧！不去反而显得怪。
韩国政府操控的媒体，立即非常兴奋地说：岸田文雄访问韩国，居然愿意去祭拜显忠院，给我们留下了很好的印象。
韩国总统尹锡悦呢？
之前我说过：他表现得太过舔日，韩国国内骂得很厉害啊！
所以岸田这一例行公事，尹锡悦觉得很了不得，一副乐不可支的样子，觉得岸田实在太给他面子了！
见面之后，尹锡悦赶紧抢先说：韩国必须“摆脱不清算历史就无法合作的思维”。
岸田呢？
马上说：对历史问题，我表示“痛心”。
侵略一个国家，给这个国家造成巨大的苦难，结果只表示“痛心”，这种说法实在太扯淡了。
如果日本人真想表示忏悔，该怎么办呢？
尹锡悦招待岸田文雄的国宴
但人们为啥觉得它们没法和汉唐比呢？
从图上看，会发现这么一个现象：汉唐两家，疆域中都包含中亚在内的一部分西域；但宋朝和明朝，却都没有！
说到这里，有人可能要说：中亚那些地方，挺封闭、挺落后的，环境也挺恶劣的，要么是高山，要么沙漠，就算有点绿洲，也没啥。
有它不多，没它不少。
如果这么想，那就错了！
因为我们要把事情倒过来想：中亚那些地方，环境挺恶劣的，要么是高山，要么沙漠，就算有点绿洲，也没啥东西，为啥汉唐两个朝代，拼死拼命，也要把它纳入疆域内呢？
这又得剥开第三层洋葱了。
安史之乱！
我们都知道：安史之乱后，唐军忙着镇压叛乱，吐蕃占据了河西走廊！
当时的唐朝，疆域缩到了大致这么一个程度。
随着这件事，历史也发生了重大的转折：什么转折呢？
于是就出现了海上丝绸之路。
和陆运比，海运很有优势：大海就像条高速公路，东西能装得很多，比陆上丝绸之路，弄一长串骆驼，万里风尘，不知道要方便到哪里去了。
随着海上丝绸之路兴起，陆上丝绸之路就慢慢衰落了。
这又得剥开第四层洋葱：海上丝绸之路兴起后，不但中国，甚至整个世界的格局，都发生了很大的变化！
中国发生了什么变化呢？
在经济格局上，内陆和北方，开始衰落！但沿海和南方，开始崛起！
这就带来一个难题：经济重心南移，主要国防威胁却在北方，怎么办？
对一个国家来说，怎么搞国防才最方便？
国防和经济中心重叠。
那么，随着海上丝绸之路，世界发生了什么样的变化呢？
先从我们身边说起！
有个之前根本一点都不起眼的国家，开始崛起了！
每年8月，日本福冈县博多区还会举办“大楠様千灯明祭”，人们会抬着谢国明的塑像出来游街。
这事我们之前说过多次。
所以美国要统治世界，必须在亚欧非大陆不断挑起战争，煽动不和，让整个亚欧非大陆动荡不已，还必须沿着这块大陆的海岸线，布下层层防线。
如果一旦亚欧非大陆实现内部整合，出现了一个能挑战它的强大力量，那美国的霸权，也就进入倒计时了。
所以美国下的是这盘棋。
而我们呢？
简单来说，就是：整合。
因为我们就在这块大陆，天然地就占有地利之便，而且这块大陆就是我们的家园，是我们安身立命之本，所以我们要想方设法，增加大家的相互信任，彼此合作，保障和平。
一旦整个亚欧非大陆慢慢地，不再动荡不安，进而实现内部整合，那美国的霸权也就到头了。
中国人民大学副校长刘元春指出，百年未有之大变局改变了我国发展的外部条件和环境，但更主要的是为中华民族伟大复兴提供了战略空间和战略机遇。一些国家逆全球化思潮泛起导致我国外需增长放缓，但也带来倒逼我国转变发展方式的机遇，中国成功开启供给侧结构性改革、大力推动高质量发展，以中国为代表的新兴市场国家快速发展正使国际力量对比发生近代以来最具革命性的积极变化；虽然全球科技创新速度有所回落，但中国创新发展的脚步正在加快，特别是世界新一轮科技革命和产业变革与我国加快转变经济发展方式形成历史性交汇，中国利用广阔的国内市场和丰富的创新人力资源，可以通过“干中学”更快缩短与发达国家的技术差距，在新技术创新浪潮中实现弯道超车甚至变道超车；全球治理体系深刻重塑，为中国参与全球治理体系变革提供了新空间，中国的国际话语权正在得到提升，完善全球治理离不开中国智慧、中国方案、中国力量。
官方权威中提出了百年未有之大变局的”变”包括五个方面的内容：一、世界权力对象出现根本性变化；二、国际格局剧烈动荡；三、世界秩序出现坍塌的威胁；四、世纪正经历大调整，国际政治经济新秩序逐渐建立；五、大变局要素的比拼前所未有。第四次工业革命方兴未艾，人工智能、机器人技术、虚拟现实以及量子科技等蓬勃发展，将深度改变人类生产和生活方式，对变局发展产生重要的影响。
这些内容主要表达的是以美国主导的国际政治经济秩序的改变。在我理解所谓的百年未有之大变局是指在进入现代工业化社会后西方长期保持着对落后的国家的绝对优势发生变化，发达国家对发展中国家的绝对优势逐渐转变为相对的优势。
这具体变现为多个层面：首先是在经济上，在最初发达国家作为世界经济的中心，世界经济的发展都是受到发达国家的操控，以西方为首的资本主义国家在在经济上处于主导地位，发达国家在商品上生产高等制成品对于新兴的发展中国家以资源劳动力密集型的工业初等品具有绝对优势，另一方面以西方为首资本主义经济大危机也对全球范围经济产生影响。但是在进入21世纪以来发达国家与发展中国家的这种差距被拉紧，各国在经济层面上的联系也日益加深，发达国家在经济层面的绝对优势变为相对优势，虽有差距但都不能离开对方。
在科技层面，最初世界科学技术的发源地是西欧地区，在长期的历史过程中，发达国家在科学技术层面都是领先于世界，发达国家的科学计算可以说是对发展中国家是降维打击；在进入新世纪以后随着世界在科学技术逐渐开放，特别是在理论经济层面的共享发达国家与发展中国家科学技术信息不对称的差距缩小，技术层面的共享也进一步减少这种差距。
在军事层面，最初西方为首的资本主义国家在军事上具有绝对优势，这种军事层面的优势使资本主义国家能将落后国家变为殖民地；但是在近代以来，发达国家对发展中国家虽仍存在差距，但是这种差距不再是绝对的，发达国家对发展中国家采取军事行动同时也会消耗本国的军事资源，发达国家要考虑的因素也增多，包括伊拉克战争、越南战争就是具体案例。。
“百年未有之大变局”的“变”包括五个方面的内容：世界权力对象出现根本性变化；国际格局剧烈动荡；世界秩序出现坍塌的威胁；世纪正经历大调整，国际政治经济新秩序逐渐建立；大变局要素的比拼前所未有。第四次工业革命方兴未艾，人工智能、机器人技术、虚拟现实以及量子科技等蓬勃发展，将深度改变人类生产和生活方式，对变局发展产生重要的影响。百年未有之大变局改变了我国的外部条件和环境，但更主要的是为中华民族的伟大复兴提供了挑战和机遇。一些国家逆全球化思潮泛起导致我国外需增长放缓，但也带来倒促使我国转变发展方式的机遇，中国成功开启供给侧结构性改革、大力推动高质量发展，以中国为代表的新兴市场国家快速发展正使国际力量对比发生近代以来最具革命性的积极变化新一轮科技革命和产业革命的大规模快速发展，加上全球化进程深刻的传播、扩散、冲刷作用，使得世界正在形成新的政治、经济、社会、文化生态。
大变局孕育着推动新型经济全球化之机。新型经济全球化，应由世界上各个国家共同参与、共同主导；应继续坚持和维护已经被实践充分证明是正确有效的贸易自由化、多边贸易体制等规则体制，并不断创新、完善和发展；应消除霸权主义与强权政治、丛林法则与零和博弈，秉持共商共建共享理念，真正实现民主、平等、公正、合理；应有利于建设开放型世界经济，有利于促进世界和平稳定，实现共同发展、共同繁荣、共同富裕。
大变局孕育着全球治理体系加速变革之机。当前世界的全球化来自西方殖民时代，带有浓郁的种族压迫色彩。这种全球化让众多的发展中国家产生抵触情绪，从而难以持续的推广。随着新兴经济体的崛起，当前西方的主要发达国家在全球化经济当中的主导地位被新兴的经济体所取代。传统的发达国家所引领的全球化必然走向了末路，需要接受调整。新兴工业化国家要求对发达国家引领的全球治理体系作出改革。发达国家领导的全球化治理体系，如果不能主动接受来自发展的国家的改革需求。那么发展的国家将会想办法另起炉灶，建立一套新的全球治理体系。这就是中国的一带一路应运而生的原因。
大变局孕育着中国引领时代、塑造时代之机。新冠肺炎疫情引发了一场社会、健康、治理和经济多方面交织的危机，而这也是我们一百多年来从未经历过的。中国对新冠的应对与其说是机遇不如说是一种更大的挑战。我觉得给中国带来的最大机遇就是：给中国一面实事求是审视自身真实国力的镜子，是检验国家治理能力和治理水平的绝佳机会。如果可以顺利通过这次考验，则可以证明中国的体制优势和国家实力不是吹嘘出来的，中国模式与世界发展的潮流相契合，中国崛起也不是一个自我感动的口号，而是一种真实存在，且美国无法阻挡这个趋势；如果没有通过这次考验或在这次考验中极其吃力，也是一次鞭策改革的极佳契机，为走向兴盛夯实基础；如果在这次考验中故步自封、回避问题、转移矛盾，则大概率会为自身崛起与复兴之路招致更多的敌意，设置更多的阻碍，作茧自缚，陷入长期的困境与衰退中，最后买单的，恐怕是百姓。
新一轮科技革命和产业革命加快重塑世界，经济全球化深入发展推升全球治理加快变化， 世界多极化深入发展使国际力量对比变得更加平衡，大国战略博弈加剧推动国际体系深刻变革，世界处于百年未有之大变局。深刻认识这一“变局”的丰富内涵，牢牢把握变局给中华民族伟大复兴带来的重大机遇，是新时代开拓广阔发展空间、实现“两个一百年”奋斗目标的现实要求。
为中华民族伟大复兴提供了战略空间和战略机遇。一些国家逆全球化思潮泛起导致我国外需增长放缓，但也带来倒逼我国转变发展方式的机遇，中国成功开启供给侧结构性改革、大力推动高质量发展，以中国为代表的新兴市场国家快速发展正使国际力量对比发生近代以来最具革命性的积极变化新一轮科技革命和产业革命的大规模快速发展，加上全球化进程深刻的传播、扩散、冲刷作用，使得世界正在形成新的政治、经济、社会、文化生态。新一轮科技革命和产业革命加快重塑世界，经济全球化深入发展推升全球治理加快变化， 世界多极化深入发展使国际力量对比变得更加平衡，大国战略博弈加剧推动国际体系深刻变革，世界处于百年未有之大变局。深刻认识这一“变局”的丰富内涵，牢牢把握变局给中华民族伟大复兴带来的重大机遇，是新时代开拓广阔发展空间、实现“两个一百年”奋斗目标的现实要求
为中华民族伟大复兴提供了战略空间和战略机遇。一些国家逆全球化思潮泛起导致我国外需增长放缓，但也带来倒逼我国转变发展方式的机遇，中国成功开启供给侧结构性改革、大力推动高质量发展，以中国为代表的新兴市场国家快速发展正使国际力量对比发生近代以来最具革命性的积极变化新一轮科技革命和产业革命的大规模快速发展，加上全球化进程深刻的传播、扩散、冲刷作用，使得世界正在形成新的政治、经济、社会、文化生态。新一轮科技革命和产业革命加快重塑世界，经济全球化深入发展推升全球治理加快变化， 世界多极化深入发展使国际力量对比变得更加平衡，大国战略博弈加剧推动国际体系深刻变革，世界处于百年未有之大变局。深刻认识这一“变局”的丰富内涵，牢牢把握变局给中华民族伟大复兴带来的重大机遇，是新时代开拓广阔发展空间、实现“两个一百年”奋斗目标的现实要求
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