The struggle between the United States and "the United States" 美国与“美国”的斗争，将在十字路口决定世界的选择

The struggle between the United States and "the United States" will determine the choice of the world at the crossroads

In the future, when the world's academic circles review the history of the 21st century, they will definitely attach great importance to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2022. Because it was this meeting that made the West completely wake up, and the "peaceful evolution" of China, making China repeat the mistakes of the collapse of the Soviet Union, completely lost the possibility

When we observe 2022 today, we can find that not only the West is re-examining their relationship with China, but most other countries in the world are also asking: Should we follow China and move towards a community with a shared future for mankind, or should we make peace with the United States? Western countries come together to encircle China

A crossroads has appeared before mankind

Let me make a very important digression: When we talk about the "West", we often start from the traditional concept, take countries and country groups as units, and generally regard the United States, Europe, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, etc. as having similar Countries with "elected systems" are classified as "Western". And the United States is not only the leading country of this "West", but also undoubtedly a unitary element.

But what we should realize today is that not only outside this "West", but also Russia, the Arab-Islamic world, South American countries, the African Union of Nations, and the most extensive developing countries and groups of countries exist; Inside the "West", there are also some other countries and country groups such as the European Union, NATO, and the Five Eyes Alliance. It is particularly worth mentioning that some alliances are established on the basis of race. The "Five Eyes Alliance" is a group composed of the United States, Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, which are of Anglo-Saxon race.

What is even more strange is that there are other types of transnational alliances (such as secret societies) that exist in the world. We know that there are at least such organizations as the Freemasonry. We would make a big mistake if we ignored the substantial existence of these clandestine societies. As for what role these organizations play in the field of international relations, we have not reached a consensus so far. But we have accepted that they carry weight.

The most important thing is that within the "West", there still exists an invisible transnational group composed of common interests, which is constantly changing, but whose core remains the same. For example, we have recognized the monopoly industry capital, and the transnational financial capital in which all interests are ultimately concentrated in its hands. These monopoly industrial capitals and transnational financial capitals not only dominate the United States, but also hide behind the scenes, so it is difficult to identify.

Since they use the United States of America as a tool to rule the world, I will call it "the United States" in this article to distinguish it from the United States itself. Today, this "America" is also splitting. In fact, we can clearly recognize that there are actually two Americas: one is the governing body in the form of a state, the United States of America, which is the "normal" America; and the other is a transnational, monopoly They are not the United States, they are beyond the United States, they are just using the "United States of America" as a tool to rule the world. So they acted more in "their" self-interest than in the interest of the United States of America. This can explain many unexplainable facts. Therefore, I would like to remind readers again and again that the "United States" in this article refers to something, so as to distinguish it from the United States of America itself.

Proceeding from this, when we talk about the West, the United States, and "the United States" and start to re-examine their relationship with China, we should observe and analyze more specifically and deeply which part of the "West", the United States, and "the United States" What kind of views are formed on China and what kind of countermeasures are being proposed. At this time, we can see that the world we are facing today is really colorful, and each has its own thinking and countermeasures. However, in the end, what we should really face is a world dominated by the most powerful monopoly group - "the United States". This is a prerequisite for me to write this article. We must give up some stereotypes of traditional concepts to observe the overall situation of the world today.

Let's get down to business.

In 2022, human society reaches a crossroads

Three major events in 2022—Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, the successful convening of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and its return to the international diplomatic arena, and the midterm elections in the United States—have triggered an unprecedented scale in the field of international relations. Political reshuffle.

The shuffler is nothing more than to see what good cards are in his hand, which player can form an alliance with other players, and to dominate and control the future direction and trend of the game...

This big reshuffle first brought us a series of question marks:

In the context of the United States' comprehensive suppression of China in recent years, the three-hour meeting between Xi and Bai during the G20 Bali summit seems to have eased the Sino-US conflict to a certain extent. Where will Sino-US relations go?

The military conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to the brink of war between NATO led by the United States and Europe and Russia. Will there be a war or even a nuclear war between Russia and the West?

After the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, German Chancellor Scholz visited Beijing, and French President Emmanuel Macron came to China as a guest in April this year, and caused a storm of international public opinion because of his remarks on "European strategic autonomy"... Europe should not become a vassal of the United States", does it mean that China and Europe are seeking a new path of cooperation?

This series of question marks marks a new crossroads in the world today.

But at the same time, we have to emphasize that this big reshuffle is very likely to be a latent serious crisis, as predicted by Russian President Vladimir Putin in a famous video speech at the World Economic Forum on January 27, 2021. It is possible to plunge the world into an "all against all" conflict or even war. The military conflict between Russia and Ukraine has opened the prelude to this "all against all" war. And today, on May 9, during Russia's "Victory Day of World War II" military parade, President Putin asserted that "a war against Russia has broken out."

Putin speaks at the military parade commemorating the 78th anniversary of the victory in the Great Patriotic War

"All against all" means that this conflict will involve many aspects, which is very complicated and difficult to filter out. In fact, various conflicts in today's world overlap and are extremely complex. The "Russia-Uzbekistan" conflict was triggered by the United States' attempt to expand NATO to the Russian border in order to restrain the second largest military power Russia, but it caused a strong reaction from Moscow; the competition for the energy market between "Russia, the United States and Europe" has constituted new focus of conflict;

The relationship between "US and China" is the 21st century version of the "Thucydides Trap" caused by the first largest economy trying to restrain the rise of the second largest economy to challenge it;

The conflict between "Islam and Judeo-Christianity" originated in the Middle East (the handshake between Iran and Saudi Arabia marked the formation of the Middle East front), but it has already spread to the global scope and even penetrated deep into the interior of European countries;

The last thing to mention is that there are increasingly fierce conflicts of interest between "national industrial capital" and "transnational financial capital" within "the United States" from Europe to the Americas. This point will be mentioned below.

These conflicts have the potential to drag the world into a bottomless abyss. Or to put it in a very popular way, it is possible to drag mankind into the "Third World War", and this time it is very likely to be a nuclear war that will destroy mankind.

Why is there an "all against all" war? Because a globalization dominated by "the United States" is heading towards "death" in a certain sense.

This dying globalization was originally a globalization in which "the United States" formulates rules, "the United States" supervises the implementation of the rules, and "the United States" enjoys the huge dividends brought by the rules. It is the "ideal world" of the West. This "ideal world" is in the "U.S." through political hegemony, military interventionism, economic colonialism and cultural Western centrism, trying to push the "U.S."-led free market economy to the world. Establish a super-capitalism, and then promote the political implementation of the "elected system" in all countries. Finally, in the 1960s and 1970s, a global government of "free market economy + democratically elected system" will be established around the world. Then the great unification was summed up under the rule of "the United States" (the West).

This scene is not my own imagination, but the famous French scholar Jacques Attali (Jacques Attali) in his best-selling book "A Brief History of the Future" [ "Une brève histoire de l'avenir", the first edition of the French Fayard Publishing House in 2006 , Reprinted in 2015. ] described in. This is also the theoretical basis for the famous American scholar Fukuyama to put forward "the end of history".

However, this globalization process planned by the "U.S." was broken by one country. In the 1980s, this country began to implement reforms, open up its national policies, join the WTO, and fully integrate into the world... Until the beginning of this century, there appeared a scene that "the United States" was unwilling and unexpected: this country was in Under the premise of abiding by the rules of globalization formulated by the "United States", it developed step by step until it became the second largest economy in the world; and it will inevitably move towards the largest economy in the middle of this century. This country is of course the People's Republic of China!

For "the United States" and the West, although China has been included in its globalization track in many ways, it has always adhered to the sense of independence, especially since the beginning of 2012, it has straightened its waist and gradually begun to separate from the Atalis. The predicted evolution track of "free market economy + democratically elected system". The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2022 once again strongly proves that today, when China is gradually becoming one of the most powerful countries in the world, it will still be an independent and sovereign country. At the same time, the United States of America, a tool in the hands of the "America", is gradually declining. This pokes a hole in the globalized web predicted by "the United States" and the West.

What makes "the United States" and the West even more angry is that after China launched the Belt and Road Initiative, Made in China 2025, and the RMB globalization strategy, a large number of countries such as Russia, Iran, and Africa and Latin America are increasingly choosing sides. , forming another core of a China-led globalization. The various remarks made by French President Macron before and after his visit to China are more clear and clear that even Europe has begun to show signs of relative independence from the "U.S.".

The development path shown by China, in a sense, is also providing a new "alternative model" for many countries in the world that have adopted the development of the Western "elected system" but have not been able to get rid of their economic difficulties. The possibility of "another development path" is provided. This is intolerable to "America".

It must be emphasized again and again that, so far, one of the most important features of globalization followed by Western "elected system" countries is that the elected regime must serve capital; more precisely, it is for transnational monopoly What financial capital serves is for "America".

That is to say, under the rule of such a system, the regime even disregards its own national interests and its own people, and exclusively serves "the United States." China has made it clear that internally it serves the people, and externally it advocates the establishment of a community with a shared future for mankind, that is, to serve the common and beautiful future of all. This point is being recognized, understood and accepted by more and more countries and people in the world. In this context, "the United States" regards China as a "competitor", and we can naturally understand its subtext.

So far, today's human society is facing an unavoidable choice: take the development path of the "end of history" in the West, or take the diversified development path advocated by China. Humanity is facing a crossroads.

The Four Plates of Power: The Smallest and Perhaps the Most Fundamental Conflict

The human society before the crossroads is forming four major power plates and three major conflicts.

In addition to the People's Republic of China, which is committed to building socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era, and the Arab-Islamic world, which believes in Islam, the other two major power sectors actually exist within the West: they are the national industrial capital of the "developed countries" in Europe and the United States. Power plate and transnational financial monopoly capital power plate. It is these four power sectors that constitute the three major conflicts: between China and the United States, between Islam and Judeo-Christianity, and between Western national industrial capital and transnational financial monopoly capital.

In a sense, the latter two power sectors are essentially a struggle between the United States and "the United States". The former is represented by Trump elected by national industrial capital and the "red-neck and blue-collar" class that supports him, while the latter is represented by Hillary Biden, who is supported by Wall Street and serves transnational monopoly financial capital (including, of course, most of the EU countries controlled by transnational financial capital).

Why doesn't Russia form a major power plate? Isn't the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict the prelude to the "all against all" war? Russia's current main strength lies in its nuclear force and President Putin's personal charisma. President Putin has used the trump card of nuclear weapons to the extreme, so that no one in the world dare to underestimate Russia. But the problem is that after all, the deterrence of nuclear war is greater than the actual use. Since Putin, who was born in 1952, became the Russian president in 2000 (except for the nominal prime minister from 2008 to 2012), he has led Russia for 22 years so far. There is no never-ending feast. The "post-Putin era" will come one day. What will happen then, we cannot predict. Whether his successor has Putin's talent for understanding and manipulating the international situation, we don't know. The only thing we can be sure of is that apart from nuclear weapons, it is really difficult for Russia to form a major power plate. Of course, we have to look at the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on this point.

In fact, if we take a closer look at the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict and the domestic reactions and perceptions of this war in the United States, we can see that "the United States" supports Ukraine while the United States is relatively neutral about this war. This is very telling.

The future world structure will be a strategic judgment of "all against all", which means that future international conflicts will be diverse and have a very complex multiplicity; To contradict the distinction. We must recognize this difference in order to grasp the main contradiction. What we tend to overlook is precisely the contradiction between these two power sectors within the West. The problem is that the most inconspicuous conflicts may well happen to be the most fundamental ones...

Then why do we think that the national industrial capital and transnational financial capital in the West constitute the other two major power sectors in the world, and there are huge contradictions and conflicts between them? This is a consequence of globalization.

The French "mondialisation" of the word "globalization" first appeared in 1904 in the French paper newspaper Le Figaro. Historically, globalization was essentially a by-product of industrialization. Before industrialization, although there was circulation of goods and people between the East and the West, it was only a long-distance trade. What we call globalization began with the "discovery" of the New World by Columbus, which led to colonialism. The Industrial Revolution further made globalization a very lucrative business. This is the era of great voyages of "Globalization 1.0". Soon, Britain and the European continent, which were the first to industrialize, quickly became the big winners of Globalization 1.0. At this time, "Globalization 2.0" featuring the "Empire on which the sun never sets" the British Empire and the pound sterling emerged.

Until the First World War, the interests of American industrial capital and transnational financial capital had been in a perfect combination in the process of globalization. The war made the United States completely surpass the United Kingdom to become the world's most important economy, and the world's financial center also shifted from London to Wall Street. On the eve of World War I, after years of hard work and hard work, financial capital finally passed the Federal Reserve Act in the U.S. Congress, and established the Federal Reserve Bank, the Federal Reserve Bank, according to this law. The status of serving industrial capital evolves toward controlling and leading industrial capital.

By the 1920s, the two major forces of American industrial capital and financial capital, which had been in the struggle of control and anti-control, finally broke out in fierce conflict. American industrial capital set off a strong wave of anti-financial capital, and its representative figure was Henry Ford, the heavyweight of industrial capital and the founder of Ford Motor Group. At the same time, Nazi Germany and Hitler appeared internationally, especially in Europe. The United States then elected Roosevelt as president, leading and passing a series of bills that substantially limited financial capital's challenge to industrial capital.

Ford car production line in the 1920s

With the outbreak of World War II, the conflict between the two capitals took a turn for the better because of the appearance of the Nazis. "War" is an important means to make American industrial capital and financial capital form a chain of common interests. We all know very well the outcome of World War II. Both American industrial capital and financial capital made a fortune from the war and became the biggest winner of World War II.

After the end of World War II, American industrial capital and financial capital jointly built a new "Globalization 3.0 Edition": backed by US military strength, based on US manufacturing, financial investment and dollar hegemony as means, with the United Nations, the IMF With the World Bank as a tool, a new round of globalization jointly led by the United States and "the United States" was established, and in this round of globalization, a lot of money was made. Until one day, China started reform and opening up...

It was when globalization developed to the mid-1980s that China began to step onto the international stage. In the first two decades of reform and opening up, the "globalization" in which China participated brought huge profits to US industrial capital and transnational financial capital, but the seeds of a "crisis" had already been sown.

Things began to change as China grew from being the world's factory and provider of cheap labor to a competitor to the West. The national industrial capital of the United States and the West was the first to encounter the challenge of China, facing the outward migration of enterprises, large numbers of immigrants entering the country, a large number of bankruptcies of enterprises, sharp increase in unemployment rate, weak purchasing power of the middle class and the bottom working class, decline in living standards, and intensified religious conflicts. , social unrest and a series of crises.

As a result, anti-globalization voices gradually sounded. Because globalization has reached this stage, it has begun to harm the interests of industrial capital and the labor class employed by industrial capital. A scene that Marx did not foresee appeared: American manufacturing business owners, middle managers and technicians, as well as the working people at the bottom, opposed the competition of foreign imported goods, opposed the transfer of enterprises to foreign countries, and opposed the entry of immigrant labor into the country. an unprecedented united front. Industrial capitalists and the working class formed a united front. Their common slogan is: "Against Globalization!"

So far, American and Western industrial capital and transnational financial capital began to have conflicts on the issue of globalization. And as industrial capital faces more and more obvious challenges from China, whether to oppose or support globalization has become an increasingly sharp conflict between national industrial capital in the West and transnational financial capital—that is, the United States and "the United States". struggle!

For transnational financial capital, although globalization brings the fiercest competition, as long as the US dollar is still firmly in the hands of the Federal Reserve and as long as the US dollar remains the only settlement currency in the world, globalization will not pose a challenge. American financial capital—more precisely, "does not pose a threat to transnational financial capital".

Although this threat is increasingly approaching Wall Street due to the internationalization of the renminbi, the establishment of the Shanghai oil futures market with the renminbi as the settlement currency, and especially the fact that the renminbi has begun to replace the U.S. dollar to some extent and become the new international trade settlement currency. , but in a sense, the renminbi is still under the huge constraints of the US dollar: China's currency issuance is in a sense indirectly influenced by, or even controlled by, the US dollar. Of course, after the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict broke out, Russia announced that it would use rubles to settle all oil and gas fuel transactions, which also challenged the hegemony of the US dollar, but it was only a partial challenge.

Therefore, transnational financial capital hopes to continue to promote globalization, while industrial capital has begun to "anti-globalization" efforts. The conflict between the two has been highlighted since the Trump era. Thus, the United States and "America" began to part ways.

Seeing this, President Putin asserted that today is very similar to the 1930s, and the risk of a "all against all" war is approaching, which of course includes these two major power sectors within the West. We must never forget that the two world wars were first fought within the Western countries.

Rejecting Neocolonialism: Is China Becoming the Enemy of Transnational Financial Capital?

In the past decade or so, China has not only risen strongly economically, challenging Western industrial capital; but also in the financial field, China has insisted on maintaining its own financial independence, and has firmly held the right to issue currency in its own hands. The three places blocked and defeated the penetration of transnational financial capital into China. What the planners of the globalization process did not expect is that China not only did not fall into the trap of the "elected system", but also walked out of a Chinese-style democratic road, which attracted the attention of more and more developing countries in the world and even imitated it. .

As a result, transnational financial capital also began to show its anti-China ferocious features. Its representative figure, Soros, published an article in the Wall Street Journal on September 9, 2019, clearly stating, "As the founder of the Open Society Foundations, I am more interested in defeating the current China than in the national interests of the United States." Concern” [Soros’s speech at the Davos Economic Forum in 2019 even directly referred to the competition between China and the West as “the battle for the future of the world”. ].

Soros

This is absolutely sobering.

China's full participation in globalization has enabled transnational financial capital to see a huge historical opportunity to make profits in China. But more importantly, in the history of the world, almost all countries that implement free market economy will eventually move towards the "elected system"; and as long as a country introduces a Western-style electoral mechanism—except for a few exceptions, such as Russia—transnational financial capital can pass through Funding politicians and single-handedly controlling the media to control the direction and results of the country's elections, elect agents of transnational financial capital interests to become the country's leaders, and then become the behind-the-scenes leaders and real rulers of the country.

Transnational financial capital believes that since China has started the free market economic reform, it will eventually move towards a "popular election system", and China will become the pocket of transnational financial capital. The day China embarks on this path will be the "end of history" in the world, transnational financial capital will become the master of the world, and the "world government" described by Attali will be ready to emerge.

However, what transnational financial capital never imagined was that China persisted in following its own unique path of socialist development and achieved remarkable success. In particular, China has proposed a future plan for a "community with a shared future for mankind", which further poses a direct challenge to the "world government"! Is it capital to establish a world government that rules the world, or is it led by China to build a "community of shared future for mankind" where everyone in the world is equal and prosperous? This challenge is historically shocking, so China has thus become the number one enemy of transnational financial capital.

After the successful convening of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, it became clearer that the transnational financial capital, that is, "the United States," is China's enemy. Because "peaceful evolution" has become a thing of the past; only by overthrowing China's current regime and system can it achieve its lofty goal of unifying the world. For the "United States", China can only be an "enemy", not a "competitor".

From this, we can see whether it is the United States, the industrial capital of the West, or "the United States", the transnational financial capital, that is China's real and main enemy.

Industrial capital sees China more as a "competitor". China becomes an "enemy" only when it comes to a struggle for hegemony. Seeing China as a "competitor" is due to industrial competition, and seeing China as an "enemy" stems from the struggle for hegemony—the "enemy" here is of the same nature as all other potential competitors for US hegemony. That’s why Trump publicly claimed that “the European Union is an enemy” in an exclusive interview with CBS’s special program “Face the Nation” before the “Putin-Putin-Trump meeting” on July 15, 2018. . He said:

"I think we have a lot of enemies. I think the EU is an enemy. Look at what they have done to us on trade. Now you don't think of the EU, but they are an enemy." When Trump said this , using the English word "foe" instead of "enemy"; both should have the same meaning at this level. If Trump used "adversary" (adversary), it would have a completely different meaning. The use of the word "foe" shows that in Trump's mind, the EU is really an enemy.

And when it comes to China, Trump said:

"Russia is an enemy in some ways. China is an enemy economically, of course they are. But that doesn't mean they're bad. It doesn't mean anything. It just means they're competitive."

This is how American industrial capital views China and the EU.

In the Biden era, not only has the fact that "China is the enemy of American hegemony" been roughly inherited, but China has once again become an ideological enemy. As long as we see Soros doing his best to support Biden's presidential campaign, we can see how clear the position of multinational financial capital on China is today. Therefore, on the issue of China, transnational financial capital and Western industrial capital have found a "common language" - "the United States" and the United States have established the same enemy!

However, we should filter out that the "common language" of the two on the China issue has different subtexts: industrial capital regards China as a competitor, and its goal is to maintain the leading position and hegemony of the United States; while overthrowing China's political system is secondary. However, transnational financial capital will not hesitate to launch a "new cold war" or even a hot war against China, in order to completely overthrow and eliminate China's political system, and eliminate the most important obstacle in their future prospects of dominating the world and establishing a world government.

America vs. "America": Will 2024 be a turning point?

In the field of international relations, we should admit that we do not know very well about many internal affairs in Western countries; sometimes we are even ignorant of many major historical events. These include the struggle and competition between the power sector of industrial capital and the power sector of transnational financial capital.

As we all know, France was the first country in the 1960s to ask the United States to honor its promise to exchange dollars for gold. At that time, French President Charles de Gaulle realized that the United States was overprinting U.S. dollars, and once the number of U.S. dollars printed exceeded the U.S. gold reserves, it would inevitably trigger a U.S. dollar crisis. As a result, de Gaulle ordered to send warships to the United States to exchange the "green paper" earned by France in foreign trade for gold with real eternal value.

It is precisely because of this that a few years later, in May 1968, a mysterious force instigated a massive "color revolution" on the French mainland under the banner of the "student movement". The first real "color revolution". The result was de Gaulle's downfall; other French and European attempts to exchange dollars for gold came to a screeching halt. From now on, don't even think about exchanging US dollars for gold.

French "May Storm" movement

This is the first duel between the two power plates. At that time, the United States was already the stronghold of transnational financial capital, while Charles de Gaulle was the most staunch European politician who defended French national industrial capital. May 68 is just one example that we don't know much about.

François Asselineau, the presidential candidate of the French "People's Republic" party (UPR), found after a long-term investigation that the establishment of the European Union and the creation of the euro by European countries were all represented by the United States at that time. It was realized under the secret instigation of transnational financial capital. At that time, the purpose of "the United States" was to bring Europe into the pocket of financial transnational capital, and then control Europe more comprehensively. To this day, we still don't know anything about it.

Judging from the history after World War II, France and Europe have long been in a "state of war" with the United States. This is a "secret" fact that is only known to some international elites. However, the United States, which is on the opposite side of Europe, was an "America" that supported globalization and controlled by transnational financial capital before Trump was elected; after Trump took office, the United States has transformed into an anti-globalized industrial capital control America. The United States is also the United States, but the power that controls the United States has changed. Under Trump is the United States, while under other presidents, such as Biden, it is "America": the "colonies" of transnational financial capital.

France's longest-serving president (two terms totaling fourteen years) François Mitterrand talks to journalist Georges-Marc Benamou before his death had a long conversation. Mitterrand uttered the following shocking words, which were published by the latter in the book "Le dernier Mitterrand" (Le dernier Mitterrand).

"France doesn't know anything about it," Mitterrand said, "but we are at war with the United States. Yes, in a perpetual war, a war of life and death, an economic war, a seemingly There seems to be no dead man's war. Yes, they are ruthless, these Americans, they are greedy, they are bent on taking power over the world alone. This is a war that no one knows, an eternal war, see It looks like it won't kill people, but it's actually a deadly war."

Benham called this passage "Mitterrand's political last words".

France's longest serving president François Mitterrand

Mitterrand also said: "I am the last great president. What I want to say is, the last president who sticks to the line of Charles de Gaulle. After me, there is no such president in France anymore, because there is the European Union, there is Globalization. In the future, France can always be called a fifth republic, but everything will be different. The French president will become a kind of super prime minister, a fragile super prime minister."

What de Gaulle insisted on was the independence and independence of France. In Mitterrand's view, France had lost this independence, and had lost it in a perpetual and unknown (especially unknown to the French) war with the United States. Why would the longest-serving president of the French Fifth Republic in more than half a century say such a thing? It is really worth people's deep thinking. Obviously, the "America" Mitterrand mentioned was essentially the United States controlled by financial transnational capital at that time.

When Trump, the representative of national industrial capital, came to power, the United States began to instigate completely opposite behaviors to disintegrate the European Union. Because the representatives of the United States have changed, the interests of the United States they represent have also changed. Trump's goal is also to conquer and control Europe, but the method is "anti-globalization". With this understanding, we can understand Trump's various bizarre, irrational, and seemingly illogical behaviors. On the contrary, France at this time elected Macron, representing the interests of transnational financial capital, and continued to have various conflicts with Trump... History is so incredible!

The duel between America and "America" continues today. Trump, representing the power of national industrial capital, is trying to make a comeback, while the power of transnational financial capital is using all means to prevent Trump from reappearing. The 2024 US election will be a defining year. The two major power sectors, national industrial capital and transnational financial capital, have reached the point where they cannot co-exist. This is obvious.

Therefore, we can foresee that this year, the duel between the United States and "the United States" will be extremely fierce. The question is, how intense will it be? Will there be bloodshed (and will Trump suffer the fate of the Kennedys)? Will there be a violent wave of anti-Semitism (will the likes of "Kanye" West appear in large numbers)? Will two very different stances on the outcome of the general election happen again? Will there be... civil war? A series of question marks are placed in front of us.

America 2024, we will wait and see.

Sitting on the mountain and watching the tiger fight: China's countermeasures

As for China, what we have to be highly vigilant about is whether the United States and the "U.S." will shift the internal conflict outward when it cannot be resolved, and turn around to fight against a common "enemy": China! This is what we should focus on the most.

In fact, "globalization" is a outline, and the outline is clear; drawing a line with globalization allows us to draw a clear line for the complex international situation. The election of Trump is a successful counterattack by the "anti-globalization" political forces. After Trump came to power, he led industrial capital and the working class to launch a new "war" against the supporters and leaders behind globalization. This war is not only an internal war in the United States (that is, against the establishment in Washington and the forces that support globalization composed of the three major powers of financial capital and the media), but it is also an international war of "America First", that is, to attack all countries at the same time. Financial capital of a country that supports globalization and has a trade surplus with the United States. This is an "invisible war" of conquest and anti-conquest, control and anti-control between the two major power sectors of industrial capital and transnational financial capital.

After Biden won the general election amid controversy and came to power, the battle between the United States and the "America" has not come to an end. On the contrary, the friction between the two sides has intensified, and the prospect is very dangerous. It has been suggested above that the 2024 US presidential election will be a duel. American strategists such as Kissinger have seen this scene. So I started actively looking for a solution. The most important solution is to move the contradiction outward, pushing their common "strategic competitor" to the core of the contradiction. This "opponent" is China, especially China after the successful convening of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. This is the most dangerous period between now and the 2024 US presidential election.

The successful convening of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is the complete bankruptcy of the "peaceful evolution" strategy that they have been operating in China for decades for the two major power sectors in the West. For industrial capital, China's transformation into a Western "processing factory" has come to naught. China is growing into a technological powerhouse capable of competing with the West. China continues to maintain a trade surplus with the United States with high-quality and cheap industrial products, and continues to maintain China's competitive advantages in low, medium and even high-end products in the international market, and continues to maintain strong economic growth. In other words, it continues to lead to the decline of American industries, the increase of unemployment rate, and the slowdown of economic growth rate.

As for transnational financial capital, although they have penetrated into China substantially, they have completed their layout in many fields in China and continue to make a lot of money. But the two most critical points have never succeeded. One is that China's finance and currency are always in the hands of the Chinese people, and no external forces are allowed to interfere; the other is that China adheres to the current national political system and firmly refuses to evolve into an "elected system" that can be secretly manipulated by the West. It is precisely because of these two points that China has so far maintained an independent sovereign power standing in the east of the world.

What angered the whole West, including the two power sectors, is that China has not only blazed its own path of development, and has become a model that many developing countries in the world want to follow. "The end of history" has a completely different future prospect: a community with a shared future for mankind.

This article has interpreted the subtext of "the end of history" and "world government". The "community with a shared future for mankind" proposed by China means that all countries, regardless of size, system, religion, race, or level of wealth, are equal, develop together, and jointly respond to various challenges facing mankind. We can imagine how anyone who pursues justice and fairness will react when the prospect of this scene spreads to the people of most countries in the world. This is the greatest challenge to the entire West, including "America" and the United States.

"The United States" and the United States must want to put China to death and then hurry up!

Therefore, today we must formulate strategies and strategies as soon as possible in the face of the two major Western powers that are sharpening their knives and may join forces once in a while.

First of all, we should precisely attack those who really intend to overthrow China’s political system, whether they are those in the multinational financial capital sector such as Soros and Pelosi, or those in the industrial capital sector such as Bannon and Pompeo. The biggest benefit of precisely striking such characters must be to "eliminate" the anti-China forces and make them lose their combat effectiveness.

Crack down on such characters, punish repeat offenders, and warn future generations; and the country will not suffer any major losses. We've actually started doing it. But apparently not enough has been done. Doing our best to strengthen the work in this area will have the effect of getting twice the result with half the effort. And in the short term, it will have immediate results, forming a direct and bloody blow to the United States and "the United States."

Secondly, from the perspective of countries and groups of countries, it is true that the European Union, Russia, the United States and China constitute the main contradictions among the many complicated contradictions in the world today; it is obvious that we should connect Russia to the north and Europe to the west. In particular, Europe should arouse our great attention. Because Europe is not only a member of the "West", but also a place where the struggle between national industrial capital and transnational financial capital is extremely fierce. As mentioned earlier, Trump even publicly regarded the European Union as an "enemy".

At the same time, the relationship between China and Europe is perhaps the most malleable. China-EU relations have three characteristics: first, there are strong mutual benefits and complementarities economically, and the probability of win-win cooperation is very high; second, there are no direct and inevitable conflicts in geopolitics; only some EU countries unilaterally intervene in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait and there is no public support at all; third, ideologically, only Europe, especially the European Parliament, criticizes China one-way, and most of them are based on rumors and lies. It can be seen that the card for improving China-EU relations lies in Europe's hands.

In fact, Europe has already realized this. Since German Chancellor Scholz visited China in November 2022, bilateral relations between China and Germany have begun to improve significantly. French President Emmanuel Macron, after his recent and exceptionally successful visit to Beijing, also made it clear that Europe should rethink its strategic positioning and should refuse to choose sides between Washington and Beijing. This proves that European political circles are starting to think about and take new measures towards China-EU relations. When China-EU relations turn around, the attempt by the United States and "the United States" to establish a Western anti-China united front will inevitably go bankrupt.

But the most important thing is to recognize and understand the historical composition, realistic contradictions and dynamic prospects of the two major power sectors of Western national industrial capital and transnational financial capital, as well as their impact on China's political, economic, financial, cultural, ideological and other fields. The degree of infiltration, depth and breadth, truly establish a strong line of defense ideologically. It is necessary to prevent it from establishing an anti-China united front, and using crises such as Taiwan independence and the South China Sea to launch a hot war against me to prevent China’s rise; The "spiritual war" in the "invisible" ideological field. This "spiritual war" can be said to have never stopped (remember how Nixon described "1999: Victory Without a Fight" against the Soviet Union?).

In fact, we should "treat others in the same way". There are a small number of Chinese friends who support China in the two major power sectors. We must support these people so that they have a greater voice on the international stage. Although we are also doing this work, but the intensity is far from enough. Today in the West, it has become a kind of "politically incorrect" behavior to publicly say a word that objectively evaluates China, or to write and publish an article that objectively introduces China, and the author has to bear huge political and public opinion pressure. We should try our best to reverse this situation and build a political, economic and public opinion team that is friendly to China, pro-China, and supportive of China in the opposing camp.

In addition to this, we also need to be detached from the fierce struggle between the United States and "the United States". When President Putin asserts that the situation today is similar to that in the 1930s on the eve of the outbreak of World War II, we should understand what he means. At this time, patience, waiting, keeping a low profile, sitting on the mountain and watching the tigers fight... should become our national policy.

If we filter the upcoming "all against all" war that may happen, from the Russia-Ukraine conflict to the possible war between NATO and Russia, from the conflict between Israel-Palestine and Israel-Iran (Ran) in the Middle East to the Jewish ——The struggle between Christianity and the Islamic world on a global scale, from the United States secretly supporting Taiwan independence to the friction between the United States and China in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea... One of the outstanding facts we can find is that "America"—that is, the power of transnational financial capital It is at the heart of almost every major conflict. Starting from this, don't we still have a hard time thinking about how to plan for the future, isolate our opponents, and build the broadest united front to respond to the challenges our opponents challenge us?

郑若麟：美国与“美国”的斗争，将在十字路口决定世界的选择

未来世界学术界在回顾二十一世纪历史时，一定会高度重视2022年中国共产党召开的二十大。因为正是这次会议，使西方彻底醒悟，“和平演变”中国、使中国重蹈苏联崩溃的覆辙，完全失去了可能性。

我们今天在观察2022年时，则可以发现，不仅西方正在重新审视他们与中国的关系，世界上其他国家大多也都在询问：我们究竟应该向中国看齐、走向人类命运共同体，还是应该与美国和西方国家一起来围堵中国？

一个十字路口出现在人类面前。

说一句相当重要的题外话：当我们论及“西方”时，我们往往从传统概念出发，以国家和国家集团为单位，将美国、欧洲以及日、澳、新、加等大致拥有相类似的“民选体制”的国家归为“西方”。而美国不仅是这个“西方”的领袖国家，而且毫无疑问地是一个单元元素。

但今天我们应该认识到的是，不仅仅在这个“西方”的外部，还有俄罗斯、阿拉伯—伊斯兰世界、南美国家、非洲国家联盟以及最广大的发展中国家和国家集团的存在；而且在“西方”的内部，也有欧盟、北约、五眼联盟等其他一些国家和国家集团的存在。特别值得一提的是某些联盟是以种族为基础而建立的，“五眼联盟”就是美、英、加、澳与新西兰五国以盎格鲁—撒克逊人种构成的一个集团。

更令人深感诡异的，则是世界上还存在着一些其他类型（如以秘密社团等形式）而生存的跨国联盟，我们知道的至少就有共济会这样的组织存在。如果我们忽略这些秘密组织实质性的存在，我们就会犯大错误。而这些组织在国际关系领域究竟在起着何等样的作用，我们到目前为止尚未形成共识。但我们已经接受，它们具有举足轻重的份量。

最重要的，则是在“西方”内部，还存在着由共同利益而构成的、时刻在变化之中、但其核心却又始终如一的隐形的跨国集团。比如，我们已经认识到的垄断产业资本，以及所有利益最终都归纳集中至其手中的跨国金融资本等。这些垄断产业资本和跨国金融资本不仅统领着美国，而且又隐身幕后，因此令人难以辨识。

由于他们利用美利坚合众国作为统治世界的工具，因此我在本文中暂且称之为——“美国”，以区别于美国本身。今天，这个“美国”也在发生分裂。事实上我们可以清晰地认识到，实际上存在着两个美国：一个是以国家形式出现的统治机构美国——美利坚合众国，也就是“正常的”美国；而另一个，则是跨国的、垄断的、隐形的利益集团，他们不是美国、超越美国，仅仅是利用“美利坚合众国”作为统治世界的工具。因此他们的作为更多地是为了“他们”自身的利益，而非美利坚合众国的利益。由此方能解释很多难以解释的事实。故我要再三恭请读者注意，本文中的“美国”是有所指的，以区别于美利坚合众国本身。

由此出发，当我们在论及西方、美国和“美国”、并开始重新审视他们与中国的关系时，我们应该更具体、深入地观察、分析“西方”、美国和“美国”究竟哪个部分对中国形成哪类看法、正在提出哪类对策。这时我们便可以看到，今天我们面对的世界真是五彩缤纷，各有各的思考、各有各的对策。但是，最终我们真正应该面对的却是由最强大的垄断集团——“美国”——所主导着的这个世界。这是我撰写此文的一个前提条件。我们必须放弃某些传统观念的窠臼，来观察今天的世界大局。

下面言归正传。

2022，人类社会抵达一个十字路口

2022年的三件大事——俄罗斯在乌克兰发动特别军事行动、中国共产党第二十次全国代表大会成功召开并重返国际外交舞台和美国中期选举——在国际关系领域引发了一场规模空前的政治大洗牌。

洗牌者，无非是要看一看自己手中有哪些好牌王牌绝杀牌、与哪个牌手可以结盟共同对付其他牌手、以主导及控制牌局的未来走向和趋势……

这场大洗牌首先给我们带来了一系列的问号：

美国在近几年全面压制中国的背景下，习拜在G20巴厘岛峰会期间长达三个小时的会晤似乎在一定程度上缓和了中美矛盾，中美关系到底会走向何方？

俄乌军事冲突导致美欧领导的北约与俄罗斯之间走到了战争的边缘，俄罗斯与西方之间会不会爆发战争甚至核大战？

中共二十大之后，德国总理朔尔茨走访北京、法国总统马克龙于今年四月前来中国作客，并因发表“欧洲战略自主”言论而引发了一场国际舆论风波……马克龙有关“欧洲不应成为美国附庸”的发言，是否意味着中欧之间正在寻求一条新的合作道路？

这一系列的问号标志着当今世界正在步入一个新的十字路口。

但与此同时我们也不得不强调，这场大洗牌很有可能如俄罗斯总统普京于2021年1月27日在世界经济论坛一次著名视频演讲中所预言的那样，一场潜伏的严重危机很有可能使世界陷入一场“所有人反对所有人”的冲突甚至战争之中。俄乌之间的军事冲突已经拉开了这场“所有人反对所有人”的战争之序幕。而在今天5月9日俄罗斯“二战胜利日”阅兵时普京总统断言，“一场针对俄罗斯的战争已经爆发”，这绝非耸人听闻，而是坦言当今世界正在发生的事实。

普京在纪念卫国战争胜利78周年阅兵式上讲话

“所有人反对所有人”，意味着这场冲突将涉及多方面，非常复杂、难以滤清。事实上，当今世界各类矛盾重重叠叠、异常复杂。“俄乌”冲突源于美国为抑制第二大军事强国俄罗斯而试图把北约扩充至俄罗斯边境、但引起莫斯科的强烈反弹而引发；“俄罗斯与美、欧”之间对能源市场的争夺已经构成新的冲突焦点；

“美中”之间则是第一大经济体试图抑制第二大经济体崛起对其形成挑战而导致的“修昔底德陷阱”的二十一世纪版；

“伊斯兰与犹太—基督教”之间的冲突则源于中东地区（伊朗和沙特阿拉伯握手言和标志着中东战线的形成），但早已扩展至全球范围、甚至深入到欧洲国家内部；

最后还要提及的，是“美国”内部从欧洲到美洲，“民族产业资本”与“跨国金融资本”之间也正在发生日益激烈的利益冲突。这一点下面还会提及。

这些冲突均有可能将世界拖进一个无底的深渊。或用一句非常通俗的话来说，即有可能将人类拖进“第三次世界大战”，而这一次很有可能是毁灭人类的核大战。

为什么会出现“所有人反对所有人”的战争？因为一个由“美国”所主导的全球化，正在走向某种意义上的“死亡”。

这个濒临死亡的全球化，原本是“美国”制定规则、“美国”监督规则的实施、“美国”享受规则带来的巨额红利的全球化，是西方的“理想世界”。这个“理想世界”是在“美国”通过政治上的霸权主义、军事上的干预主义、经济上的殖民主义和文化上的西方中心主义，试图将“美国”主导的自由市场经济推向全球，建立一个超级资本主义，进而推进所有国家都在政治上实施“民选体制”，最终到本世纪六、七十年代，在全世界范围内建立一个“自由市场经济＋民选体制”的全球政府，世界便大一统归纳在“美国”（西方）的统治之下。

这一幕并非我个人的臆想，而是法国著名学者雅克·阿塔利（Jacques Attali）在他的畅销书《未来简史》[ 《Une brève histoire de l'avenir》，法国Fayard出版社2006年初版、2015年再版。]里所描述的。这也是美国著名学者福山提出“历史的终结”的理论依据。

但是，这一在“美国”规划中的全球化进程，却被一个国家打破了。这个国家在上个世纪八十年代开始推行改革、开放国策，并加入世贸组织、彻底融入世界……直至本世纪初，出现了“美国”所不愿意、也未曾预想到的一幕：这个国家在遵守“美国”制定的全球化规则的前提下，竟然一步步发展起来，直至成为世界第二大经济体；且将在本世纪中叶不可避免地迈向第一大经济体。这个国家当然就是中华人民共和国！

对于“美国”和西方而言，中国虽然在多方面已经被纳入其全球化的轨道，但始终坚持独立自主意识，特别是从2012年伊始更是挺直了腰杆，逐渐开始脱离阿塔利们预见的“自由市场经济＋民选体制”的演变轨道。2022年召开的中共二十大则再次强力证明，今天在中国逐渐迈向世界最强大国家之一时，将依然是一个独立自主的主权国家。而与此同时，“美国”手中的工具美利坚合众国却在一步步迈向衰落。这就在“美国”和西方预示的全球化大网中捅破了一个窟窿。

更令“美国”和西方愤怒的是，在中国推出一带一路、中国制造2025以及人民币全球化战略之后，俄罗斯、伊朗仍至非洲、拉丁美洲等一大批国家都越来越明确地择边而站，形成了一个以中国为主导的全球化的另一个核心。而法国总统马克龙在访华前后所发表的种种言论，则更清晰、明确地表明，甚至连欧洲内部也开始出现一股相对独立于“美国”的苗头。

中国展现出来的发展道路，从某种意义上来说，也正在为世界上很多采纳了西方“民选体制”发展却始终未能摆脱经济困境的国家，提供了某种新的“另类样版”，提供了“另一种发展道路”的可能性。这是“美国”所无法容忍的。

在这里必须再三强调的是，到目前为止，西方“民选体制”国家遵循的全球化的一个最重要的特点，就是选举产生的政权必然是为资本服务的；更确切地说，是为跨国垄断金融资本服务的，是为“美国”服务的。

也就是说，这样的体制统治下，政权甚至置本国利益、本国民众于不顾，而专门为“美国”服务。中国则明确提出对内是为人民服务，对外则提倡建立人类命运共同体，即为所有人的共同美好未来服务。这一点正在为世界越来越多的国家和民众所认识、理解和接受。在这种背景下，“美国”将中国视为“竞争对手”，我们自然能够知晓其潜台词。

至此，今天的人类社会面临一个无法回避的抉择：走西方“历史终结”式的发展道路，还是走中国倡导的多样化发展道路。人类正面临一个十字路口。

四大力量板块：最不起眼的也许是最根本的冲突

十字路口面前的人类社会正在形成四大主要力量板块和三大冲突。

除了致力于建设新时代中国特色社会主义的中华人民共和国、信奉伊斯兰教的阿拉伯—伊斯兰世界之外，另外两大力量板块实际上存在于西方内部：它们是欧美“发达国家”内部的民族产业资本力量板块和跨国金融垄断资本力量板块。正是这四大力量板块，构成了三大冲突：中美之间、伊斯兰与犹太—基督教之间、以及西方民族产业资本与跨国金融垄断资本之间。

从某种意义上来说，后两大力量板块实质上是美国与“美国”之争。前者由民族产业资本选出来的特朗普和支持他的“红脖蓝领”阶级所代表，而后者则由华尔街所支持的为跨国垄断金融资本服务的希拉里—拜登所代表（当然还包括了跨国金融资本所控制的欧盟国家中的大部分）。

为什么俄罗斯不会形成一大力量板块？俄乌军事冲突不正是“所有人反对所有人”的战争之序幕吗？俄罗斯目前主要力量在于核军力和普京总统的个人魅力。普京总统正是将核武器这张王牌用到了极致，以至于当今世界任何人都不敢轻视俄罗斯。但问题在于，核战争毕竟威慑力大于实际使用，而1952年出生的普京自2000年出任俄罗斯总统以来（除了2008至12年名义上担任总理外），迄今已经领导俄罗斯长达22年。天下没有不散的筵席。“后普京时代”总有一天会到来。届时会发生什么事，我们难以逆料。他的继任者有没有普京的理解和操控国际格局之天赋，我们均不得而知。我们惟一可以肯定的是，除了核武器，俄罗斯还真是难以构成一大力量板块。当然，这一点我们还要看俄乌冲突的结果而议。

事实上，如果我们仔细研究俄乌军事冲突和美国国内对这场战争的反应和看法，我们可以看出，对于这场战争，“美国”支持乌克兰而美国则持相对中立态度。这是非常说明问题的。

未来世界格局将是“所有人反对所有人”的战略研判意味着未来国际矛盾将是多样化的，具有非常复杂的多重性；但其中又必然地会有主要的矛盾和次要矛盾乃至更次要矛盾的区别。我们必须认识这种区别，才能抓住主要矛盾。而我们往往忽略的，恰恰是西方内部的这两力量板块之间的矛盾。问题在于，最不起眼的冲突，很有可能恰好是最根本的冲突……

那么为什么我们认为西方内部民族产业资本和跨国金融资本构成了世界另外两大力量板块，而且他们之间正在产生巨大的矛盾和冲突呢？这正是全球化带来的一个结果。

“全球化”这个词的法语“mondialisation”最早出现在1904年法国纸质媒体《费加罗报》上。从历史上看，全球化实质上是工业化的一个副产品。在工业化之前，虽然也有东西方商品和人员的流通，但那只是一种远距离的贸易而已。我们所谓的全球化是从哥伦布“发现”新大陆、进而导致殖民主义而开始的。工业化革命进一步使全球化成为利润非常丰厚的事业。这是“全球化1.0版”的大航海时代。很快，率先工业化的英国和欧洲大陆很快就成为全球化1.0版的大赢家。此时出现了以“日不落帝国”大英帝国和英镑为特征的“全球化2.0版”。

直至第一次世界大战，美国产业资本与跨国金融资本的利益在全球化过程中一直处于完美无缺的结合状态。战争使美国彻底超越英国而成为世界最主要的经济体，而世界金融中心也从伦敦城转向华尔街。就在一战前夕，金融资本经过多年的钻营和努力，终于在美国国会通过了《联邦储备法》（Federal Reserve Act），并根据该法成立了联邦储备银行，即美联储，从而使金融资本从服务于产业资本的地位朝着控制和主导产业资本的方面演变。

到上个世纪20年代，一直处于控制与反控制斗争中的美国产业资本与金融资本这两大力量终于爆发激烈冲突。美国产业资本掀起一股强烈的反金融资本浪潮，其代表人物正是产业资本的重头悍将、福特汽车集团公司的创始人亨利•福特。与此同时，国际上特别是在欧洲，也出现了德国纳粹和希特勒。美国随后选出罗斯福担任总统，主导并通过了一系列法案，从实质上限制金融资本对产业资本的挑战。

20世纪20年代的福特汽车生产线

随着第二次世界大战爆发，这两大资本之间的冲突因为纳粹的出现而出现了转机。“战争”是使美国产业资本与金融资本形成共同利益链的一个重要手段。二战结果我们都非常清楚，美国产业资本和金融资本双双从战争中大发横财，成为二战最大的赢家。

二战结束后，美国产业资本和金融资本联手构建了一个新的“全球化3.0版”：以美国军事实力为后盾、美国制造业为基础、金融投资和美元霸权为手段，以联合国、货币基金组织和世界银行等为工具，建立起美国和“美国”共同主导的新一轮全球化，并在这一轮全球化中，赚得盆满钵满。直到有一天，中国开始了改革开放……

正是在全球化发展到上个世纪八十年代中期，中国开始登上国际舞台。在改革开放的最初二十年里，中国参与其中的“全球化”给美国产业资本和跨国金融资本带来的还是巨额利润，但“危机”的种子已经播下。

随着中国从一个世界工厂、廉价劳动力的提供者，逐渐成长为西方的一个竞争对手的过程中，形势开始发生变化。美国和西方民族产业资本首先遭遇中国的挑战，面临企业向外迁移、移民大量入境、企业大量破产倒闭、失业率剧增、中产阶级和底层劳动阶层购买力疲软、生活水平下降、宗教矛盾趋于激化、社会出现动荡等一系列危机。

于是，反全球化的声音渐渐响起。因为全球化到了这个阶段，开始损害产业资本和产业资本所雇佣的劳动力阶层的利益。马克思所没有预见到的一幕出现了：美国制造业企业主和中层管理和技术人员阶层，以及底层劳动人民在反对外来进口商品竞争、反对企业转移到外国、反对外来移民劳动力进入本国等领域，形成了一个前所未有的联合阵线。产业资本家与劳动阶层形成了统一战线。他们的共同口号是：“反对全球化！”

至此，美国及西方产业资本与跨国金融资本在全球化问题上开始出现矛盾。且随着产业资本面临来自中国越来越明显的挑战，反对还是支持全球化，已经成为西方内部民族产业资本与跨国金融资本——即美国与“美国”——之间的日益尖锐的冲突、斗争！

对于跨国金融资本来说，全球化尽管带来最激烈的竞争，但只要美元的印币权还牢牢地掌握在美联储手中、只要美元仍然是世界惟一的结算货币，全球化就不会构成对美国金融资本——更确切地应该说是“不会构成对跨国金融资本”——的威胁。

尽管这一威胁因人民币的国际化、以人民币为结算货币的上海石油期货市场的建立，特别是今天人民币开始在某种程度上取代美元而成为新的国际贸易结算货币，都越来越逼近华尔街，但人民币从某种意义上来说，目前依然受到美元的巨大掣肘：中国货币发行量从某种意义上间接受美元的影响，甚至是控制。当然，在俄乌军事冲突爆发后，俄罗斯宣布用卢布来结算所有的石油天然气燃料交易，也对美元霸权提出了挑战，但也仅仅是局部的挑战而已。

因此， 跨国金融资本希望继续推进全球化，而产业资本则开始了“逆全球化”的努力。两者之间的冲突，从特朗普时代开始凸显出来。于是，美国与“美国”开始分道扬镳。

正是看到了这一点，普京总统断言，今天与上个世纪三十年代非常类似，一场“所有人反对所有人”的战争风险正在走近，其中当然包括西方内部的这两大力量板块。我们千万不能忘记，两次世界大战都是在西方国家内部率先打起来的。

拒绝新殖民主义：中国正在成为跨国金融资本的敌人？

到了最近十来年，中国不仅在经济上强劲崛起，挑战西方产业资本；而且在金融领域，中国坚持维护本国的金融独立，将货币发行权一直牢牢地掌握在本国手中，一而再、再而三地阻击、击垮了跨国金融资本对中国的渗透。更令全球化进程设计者所没有想到的是，中国不但没有掉进“民选体制”的陷阱，而且走出了一条中国式的民主道路，吸引了世界上越来越多的发展中国家的关注甚至模仿。

由此，跨国金融资本也开始露出反华的狰狞面目。其代表性人物索罗斯于2019年9月9日在《华尔街日报》上发表文章明确表示，“作为开放社会基金会的创始人，我对打败当下中国的兴趣，超过了对美国的国家利益的关心”[ 索罗斯于2019年在达沃斯经济论坛上的一次演讲甚至直接将中国与西方之间的竞争称之为“世界未来前途之争”。]。

跨国金融资本的代表人物索罗斯

这绝对发人深省。

中国全面加入全球化，使跨国金融资本看到在中国赢利的巨大历史机遇。但更重要的是在世界历史上几乎所有实施自由市场经济的国家最终都会走向“民选体制”；而一个国家只要引进西式选举机制——除了少数例外，如俄罗斯——跨国金融资本都能通过一手资助政客、一手控制媒体，来控制这个国家的选举走向和结果，选出跨国金融资本利益的代理者成为国家领导人，进而成为这个国家的幕后主导者和真正统治者。

跨国金融资本认定，中国既然开始了自由市场经济改革，就一定会最终走向“民选体制”，中国就将成为跨国金融资本的囊中之物。而中国迈上这条道路之日，便将是世界“历史之终结”，跨国金融资本就将成为世界的主人，阿塔利所描述的“世界政府”将呼之欲出。

然而跨国金融资本万万没有想到的是，中国坚持走自己的独特的社会主义发展道路，而且取得了显著的成功。特别是中国提出“人类命运共同体”的未来规划，进一步向“世界政府”提出了直接挑战！到底是由资本来建立统治全球的世界政府、还是由中国主导建立全世界人人平等、共同富裕的“人类命运共同体”？这一挑战具有历史性的震撼，因此中国便由此而成为跨国金融资本的头号敌人。

中国共产党成功召开二十大以后，跨国金融资本即“美国”以中国为敌的态势更为明确了。因为“和平演变”已成明日黄花；只有推翻中国现政权和体制，才能实现其一统天下的远大目标。对于“美国”来说，中国只能是“敌人”，而不是“竞争对手”。

由此，我们可以看到，究竟是美国即西方产业资本、还是“美国”即跨国金融资本才是中国真正的、主要的敌人。

产业资本更多的是将中国视为“竞争对手”。只有在涉及霸权之争时，中国才会成为“敌人”。视中国为“竞争者”是因为工业竞争、视中国为“敌人”则是源于对霸权之争——这里的“敌人”，与其他所有有可能成为美国霸权竞争者的性质是一样的。所以特朗普在2018年7月15日“双普会—普京与特朗普会晤”之前接受美国哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）专题节目“Face the Nation”专访时，公开声称“欧盟是一个敌人”。他说：

“我想我们有很多敌人，我认为欧盟是一个敌人，看他们在贸易上对我们所做的事。现在你不会想到欧盟，但他们是一个敌人。”特朗普在说这段话时，用的是英文单词“foe”，而不是“enemy”；两者在这个层面上的含义应该是相同的。如果特朗普用的是“对手”（adversary）那就完全是另外的含义了。用“foe”这个词，说明在特朗普心目中，欧盟还真是一个敌人。

而在谈到中国时，特朗普说：

“俄罗斯在某些方面是敌人。中国在经济领域是敌人，他们当然是敌人。但这并不意味着他们就是坏的。这并不意味什么。这仅仅意味着他们具有竞争力而已。”

这是美国产业资本对中国和欧盟的看法。

到了拜登时代，不仅“中国是美国霸权的敌人”这一点大致继承下来了，而且中国再度成为意识形态的敌人。我们只要看到索罗斯竭尽全力支持拜登竞选总统就可以看到，跨国金融资本今天对中国的立场是何等的清晰。于是，在中国问题上，跨国金融资本与西方产业资本找到了“共同语言”——“美国”和美国树立起同一个敌人！

只是，我们应该滤清两者在中国问题上的“共同语言”具有不同的潜台词：产业资本视中国为竞争对手，目标是维持美国的领先地位、霸权主义；而推翻中国政治体制则是次要目标；而跨国金融资本则不惜对中国发动一场“新冷战”、甚至热战，以求彻底推翻和消灭中国政治体制，消灭他们一统天下、建立世界政府未来前景中最主要的障碍。

美国与“美国”的决斗：2024年会不会是一个转折点？

在国际关系领域，我们应该承认，我们对很多发生在西方国家内部的事务并不是十分了解；有时我们甚至对很多重大历史事件都一无所知。其中就包括产业资本力量板块与跨国金融资本力量板块之间的斗争、较量。

众所周知，法国是上世纪60年代第一个要求美国兑现美元换黄金的承诺的国家。当时法国总统戴高乐意识到美国正在滥印美元，而一旦美元印数超过美国的黄金储备，将不可避免地引发美元危机。结果，戴高乐便下令向美国派出军舰，将法国在外贸中赚取的“绿纸”换回真正有着永恒价值的黄金。

也正是因为如此，几年后，在1968年5月，一股神秘的力量策动了法国本土上的一场声势浩大的、打着“学生运动”旗号的“颜色革命”，这可能是历史上第一场真正的“颜色革命”。其结果是戴高乐下台；法国和欧洲其他想用美元换回黄金的做法戛然中止。从此不要说拿美元换黄金，甚至想都不敢再想。

法国“五月风暴”运动

这就是两大力量板块之间的第一场决斗。当时美国已经是跨国金融资本的大本营，而戴高乐则是捍卫法国民族产业资本的最坚定的欧洲政治家。68年五月风暴恰恰是我们不太了解的一个例子。

法国“人民共和联盟”党（UPR）总统候选人费朗索瓦·阿塞利诺（François Asselineau）经过长期调查发现，欧洲国家建立欧盟、创立欧元，都是在当时以“美国”为代表的跨国金融资本的秘密策动下实现的。当时“美国”的目的是将欧洲纳入金融跨国资本的囊中，进而更全面地控制欧洲。直至今天，我们对此也依然一无所知。

从二战后的历史看，其实法国以及欧洲早就与美国处于“战争状态”之中，这是一个只限于部分国际上层人物才了解的“秘密的”事实。只是，处于欧洲对立面的美国，在特朗普当选之前，是支持全球化的、跨国金融资本控制的“美国”；而在特朗普上台之后，美国则又蜕变为反全球化的产业资本控制的美国。美国同样是美国，只是控制美国的力量发生了变化。特朗普治下的是美国，而其他总统如拜登治下的则是“美国”：跨国金融资本的“殖民地”。

法国在位时间最长的一位总统（两个任期共十四年）弗朗索瓦·密特朗（François Mitterrand）在逝世前与记者乔治—马克·贝纳姆（Georges－Marc Benamou）进行了长时间的谈话。密特朗说出下面这段令人惊心动魄的话，被后者发表在《密特朗的最后时刻》（Le dernier Mitterrand）一书中。

密特朗说：“法国对此一无所知，但我们与美国正处于战争之中。是的，一场永恒的战争之中，一场生死攸关的战争，一场经济战争，一场看上去似乎不会死人的战争。是的，他们冷酷无情，这些美国人，他们贪婪成性，他们一心要独自攫取对世界的权力。这是一场人所不知的战争，一场永恒的战争，看上去似乎不会死人，但实际上是一场会死人的战争。”

贝纳姆将这段话称之为“密特朗的政治遗言”。

国在位时间最长的总统弗朗索瓦·密特朗

密特朗还说：“我是最后一位大总统。我想说的是，最后一位坚守戴高乐路线的总统。在我之后，法国再也没有这样的总统了，因为有了欧盟，有了全球化。在未来，法国可以一直称为第五共和国，但一切都不同了。法兰西总统将成为某种超级总理，地位脆弱的超级总理。”

戴高乐坚持的就是法兰西的自主独立。而在密特朗看来，法国已经失去这一独立，而且是在与美国进行的一场永恒的、人所不知的（尤其是法国人所不知的）战争中失去的。为什么这位法国第五共和国半个多世纪来在位时间最长的总统会说过这样的话？实在是值得人们深思。显然，密特朗所言的“美国”，实质上就是当时由金融跨国资本控制的美国。

当民族产业资本的代表人物特朗普上台后，美国开始策动的则是与此前完全相反的行为，是为了解体欧盟。因为美国的代表变了，其所代表的美国利益也就一起变了。特朗普的目的同样是为了征服和控制欧洲，方式方法却是“逆全球化”行为。理解了这一点，我们对特朗普的种种怪诞、非理性、表面上毫无逻辑的行为，就能够一通百通了。而反过来，这时的法国却选出了马克龙，代表着跨国金融资本的利益，继续与特朗普产生种种矛盾……历史就是这样令人匪夷所思！

今天，美国和“美国”的决斗仍在继续。代表着民族产业资本力量板块的特朗普正在试图卷土重来，而跨国金融资本力量板块则明里暗里正在使用一切手段来阻止特朗普再现辉煌。2024年的美国大选将是决定性的一年。民族产业资本与跨国金融资本这两大力量板块已经到了无法共同生存的地步了。这是显而易见的。

因此，我们可以预见，这一年，美国与“美国”的决斗将是异常激烈的。问题在于，会激烈到什么程度？会不会出现流血事件（特朗普会不会遭遇肯尼迪家族的不幸命运）？会不会出现猛烈的反犹浪潮（“侃爷”Kanye West之类的人物会不会大量出现）？会不会再度发生对大选结果的两种截然不同的立场？会不会发生……内战？一连串的问号摆在我们面前。

美国2024，我们拭目以待。

坐山观虎斗：中国的对策

对于中国来说，我们不得不高度警惕的，则是美国和“美国”会不会在内部矛盾无法解决之际，向外转移这一矛盾，共同转身对抗一个共同的“敌人”：中国！这是我们最应关注的焦点。

事实上，“全球化”是一个纲，纲举目张；以全球化划线，可以让我们对复杂的国际格局理出一条清晰的线路。特朗普当选就是“反全球化”政治力量的一次成功反击。在特朗普上台后，便率领产业资本和劳动阶层对全球化背后的支持者和主导者发动了一场新“战争”。这场战争既是一场美国的内部战争（即反对华盛顿的权势集团和金融资本、媒体三大权力构成的支持全球化的力量）、但也是一场“美国优先”的国际战争，即同时打击所有支持全球化、且与美国有着贸易顺差的国家的金融资本。这是一场产业资本与跨国金融资本两大力量板块之间征服与反征服、控制与反控制的“隐形战争”。

拜登在争议声中赢得大选上台后，美国与“美国”的争斗并没有就此划上句号。相反，双方的磨擦更趋激烈，前景十分危险。上面已经提出，2024年美国总统大选将是一场决斗。基辛格等美国战略家们都看到了这一幕。于是便开始积极地寻找解决方法。而其中最主要的方案，就是矛盾外移，将他们共同的“战略竞争对手”推至矛盾的核心位置。这个“对手”，就是中国，特别是二十大成功召开后的中国。这正是现在至2024年美国总统大选之前最危险的时期。

中共二十大成功召开对于西方两大力量板块而言，是他们在中国经营了几十年的“和平演变”战略的彻底破产。对于产业资本而言，中国蜕变为西方的“加工厂”已经成为泡影。中国正在成长为一个足以与西方竞争的技术强国。中国继续以物美价廉的工业产品保持着对美国的贸易顺差，继续在国际市场保持着中国低、中甚至高端产品的竞争优势，继续经济的强劲增长。也就是说，继续在导致美国产业的衰落、失业率的增加、经济增长率的减缓。

而对于跨国金融资本而言，尽管他们已经大幅渗入中国，在中国的众多领域已经完成了布局，继续赚得盆满钵满。但在最关键的两点却始终没有得手。一是中国的金融—货币始终控制在中国人自己的手中，不容外部势力染指；另一点则是中国坚持现行的国家政治制度，坚定拒绝演变成西方能够暗中操控的“民选体制”。正是由于这两点，中国迄今一直保持着一个独立自主的主权大国而屹立在世界东方。

更令整个西方——包括两大力量板块在内——愤怒不已的，是中国不仅走出了一条自己的发展道路，不仅已经成为世界很多发展中国家意欲跟随的榜样，而且中国还提出了与西方“历史的终结”完全不同的一个未来前景：人类命运共同体。

本文已经诠释了“历史终结”和“世界政府”的潜台词。而中国提出的“人类命运共同体”则是所有国家不分大小、不分体制、不分宗教、不分人种、不分富裕程度一律平等，共同发展，共同应对人类面临的种种挑战。我们可以想象得到，当这一幕前景传播给世界大多数国家民众时，任何追求正义和公平的人们会如何反应。这对整个西方——包括“美国”和美国——而言，都是最大的挑战。

“美国”和美国必然是欲置中国于死地而后快！

因此，今天我们必须尽快制定面对磨刀霍霍、有可能一朝联手的西方两大力量板块的应对策略和战略。

首先我们应该精准打击真正意欲推翻中国政治体制的人物，不管他是跨国金融资本力量板块的人马如索罗斯、佩洛西，还是产业资本力量板块的人马如班农、蓬佩奥之流。精准打击这类人物的最大收益，必然是“消灭”反华生力军，使之失去战斗力。

打击这类人物，惩戒累犯、警戒后人；而国家不会有任何重大损失。我们实际上已经开始在做。但显然做得还不够。竭尽全力加强这方面的工作，将会起到釜底抽薪、事半功倍的效果。而且在短期内就会立竿见影，对美国和“美国”形成直接的、兵刃见血的打击。

其次，从国家和国家集团的角度出发，确实，欧盟、俄罗斯、美国和中国构成了今天世界诸多错综复杂的矛盾中的主要矛盾；我们应该北连俄罗斯、西通欧罗巴，这是显而易见的。特别是欧洲应该引起我们的高度重视。因为欧洲不仅是“西方”的一员，而且也是民族产业资本与跨国金融资本争斗博击异常激烈的地方。前面提及，特朗普甚至一度公开将欧盟视为“敌人”。

而与此同时，中国与欧洲之间的关系却可能是最具有可塑性的。中欧关系具有三个特征：一是经济上具有强烈的互惠互补性，合作共赢的机率甚高；二是地缘政治上没有直接、必然的冲突；只有欧盟一些国家单方面地要介入南海、台海事务；且完全没有任何民意支持；三是意识形态上只有欧洲、特别是欧洲议会对中国的单向批评，且多建立在谣言和谎言基础上。由此可见，改善中欧关系的牌在欧洲手里。

事实上，欧洲已经意识到这一点。从德国总理朔尔茨于2022年11月访问中国以来，中德双边关系开始明显改善。法国总统马克龙在最近异常成功地访问北京之后，亦明确地宣布欧洲应重新思考其战略定位，应该拒绝在华盛顿与北京之间择边而站。这证明欧洲政界对中欧关系正在开始一定的新思考、新举措。当中欧关系出现转机时，美国和“美国”试图建立起西方反华统一战线的图谋就必然会破产。

但最重要的，则是认清、理解西方民族产业资本与跨国金融资本两大力量板块的历史构成、现实矛盾和动态前景，以及他们对中国在政、经、金融、文化、意识形态等领域的渗入程度和深度、广度，真正从思想上建立起一道强有力的防线。既要防止其建立反华统一战线，利用台独、南海等危机对我发动一场热战，以阻止中国的崛起；更应防止其通过渗透、收买、寻求代理人等多种方式对我进行一场“看不见的”意识形态领域的“精神战争”。这场“精神战争”可以说一直没有停过（还记得尼克松是如何描述对苏联《1999：不战而胜》的吗？）。

我们其实应该“以其人之道、还治其人之身”。两大力量板块中均有少数支持中国的友华人士的存在。我们要力挺这些人士，使之在国际舞台上拥有更大的发言权。我们虽然也在做这项工作，但力度远远不够。今天在西方，公开说一句客观评价中国的话、撰写发表一篇客观介绍中国的文章，均已成为一种“政治不正确”的行为，作者要由此承受巨大的政治和舆论压力。我们应该尽力扭转这种局面，在对方阵营中建立起一支友华、亲华、挺华的政、经和舆论队伍。

除此以外，我们同时要对美国和“美国”之间的激烈争斗采取超然态度。当普京总统断言今天的形势与上个世纪三十年代第二次世界大战爆发前夕有着类似的局势，我们应该理解其言下之意。这时，忍耐、等待、韬光养晦、坐山观虎斗……应该成为我们的国策。

如果我们来滤一下即将可能发生的这场“所有人反对所有人”的战争的话，从俄乌冲突到北约与俄罗斯之间的可能的战争，从中东以巴、以伊（朗）冲突到犹太—基督教与伊斯兰世界在全球范围的争斗，从美国暗中支持台独到美国与中国在台海、南海诸领域的磨擦……我们可以发现的一个突出事实是，“美国”——即跨国金融资本力量板块在各大冲突中几乎都处于核心地位。由此出发，我们难道还想不清楚，到底应该如何规划未来、孤立对手、建立最广泛的统一战线，以回应我们的对手向我们发出的挑战？