The population flow has changed again!人口流向又有变化了！

The population flow has changed again!

Recently, the population data of each province has almost come out, and there are new changes.

An obvious change in the population trend is that the first-tier metropolitan areas with population growth have seen reductions one after another.

The first is the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area. Following the negative growth of 298,400 in 2021, the scale of population loss will expand to 423,000 in 2022.

Among them, the population of Beijing decreased by 43,000, the population of Tianjin decreased by 100,000, and the population of Hebei Province decreased by 280,000.

If this rate is reduced, the entire Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will have a net outflow of 3 to 4 million people in 10 years, or even more.

There is also the Yangtze River Delta metropolitan area. Last year, the population increase of the entire Yangtze River Delta was only 470,000, which fell below 1 million for the first time in 10 years, setting a record low.

The net increase in population in Jiangsu Province has also been reduced by half from 280,000 to 100,000.

Zhejiang's net population increase from 720,000 to 370,000 was also halved.

Shanghai has experienced direct negative growth. The permanent population has decreased from 24.89 million to 24.75 million, which is the largest population reduction in 10 years.

As a highly economically active area, the Yangtze River Delta has always been attractive for its population. But even in a big city like Shanghai, the trend of population loss has begun to appear in recent years.

What are the trends in population mobility?

One is the internal migration of metropolitan areas.

For example, in the Yangtze River Delta metropolitan area, the population flowing out of Shanghai came to Anhui. The net population increase in Anhui is increasing year by year, with a net increase of 140,000 last year.

The second is the migration from first-tier to second-tier urban circles.

Last year, the net increase of Chongqing's population increased by 77,000, the net inflow of population in Jiangxi Province was 94,000, and the net inflow of population in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region was 65,000.

The situation is similar in Chengdu, where the population will increase slightly from 828,000 in 2021 to 842,000.

Data that votes with your feet is often the most powerful.

The attractiveness of the metropolitan area is not as strong as before. With the reshuffle of population mobility, the second-tier provincial capital cities have risen.

Why do many people want to go to second-tier cities?

I think there are two reasons.

1. The cost of living in first-tier cities is too high.

Let alone buying a house, just raising a baby can drain people dry.

If you want baby chickens and engage in various trainings, it is possible to spend hundreds of thousands a year.

Previously, a child-rearing researcher had done statistics, and if a child was to be brought up to adulthood, the first-tier cities would start with a million. How many ordinary families can afford this cost?

2. Driven by industrial migration.

Except for a few such as Huawei who moved to Dongguan, and the surrounding urban agglomerations, except for the nearby transfer of low-end manufacturing, high-end industries will not choose the surrounding metropolitan area.

Because these surrounding urban agglomerations have no other advantages other than the proximity of logistics, and they have not formed an industrial chain. Like Hebei and Tianjin, Beijing's industry has been transferred, but they can't take over.

Looking back at the current second-tier cities, they are very friendly to landing companies. Whether it is policies or business environment, they are very similar to the early first-tier cities.

First of all, many second-tier companies are very willing to invest in attracting investment, especially in high-end industries. The surrounding metropolitan areas do not have this advantage to compete with second-tier companies.

You can see that BOE invested tens of billions in Hefei. At that time, the Hefei government took out its wealth to invest in BOE shares. In addition, there were huge land and tax incentives.

There are also some strong second-tier cities that take the lead in developing emerging industries and directly compete with big cities for industries.

For example, Hangzhou High-tech Zone introduced a group of top high-tech enterprises such as Geely Group and Hailiang Group through the investment promotion of the industrial chain in the early years, and is committed to the research and development of top core technologies such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, big data, and the Internet of Things.

It also took the lead in building a large health industry cluster. Today, half of the world's top ten pharmaceutical companies have invested in Hangzhou Economic and Technological Development Zone.

What if there is no industrial chain in the second-tier cities? Then make one and vertically integrate the entire industrial chain.

Weihai High-tech Zone, for example, customized a laser printer industrial park covering an area of 6,000 mu for the HP industry chain. At the same time, it customized supporting services such as production, R&D, testing, and certification for the development of the industry chain, and finally introduced the United States Hewlett-Packard Company.

In addition, some strong second-tier cities, such as Wuhan, Chengdu, and Chongqing, generally have the advantages of higher education resources, and there is no shortage of talents. It is easy for companies to recruit people, and the cost of employing personnel is much lower than that of the first-tier companies.

Especially for high-end industries, their research institutes need talents, not logistics, so when most companies invest, they will first choose regional central cities such as Hangzhou, Chengdu, Wuhan, Xi'an, and Hefei.

These are not available in cities in other metropolitan areas, the most typical cities are Zhongshan and Huizhou.

I saw fans leaving messages at the bottom of our articles asking, "Why is there so much land in Zhongshan, cheap house prices, good location, and a good environment, but the economy is not developed?"

I think I don’t need to say the answer. Zhongshan is indeed like this fan said. Compared with many cities, the conditions are already very good, but Zhongshan does not have a large talent pool. The resources of colleges and universities are average, and companies cannot recruit them in the past man.

Over the years, the infrastructure of second-tier cities has been improving. Medical care, education, transportation and subway...the first line and some second lines are gradually available. For details, please refer to our previous article: Capital retreat?

In addition, housing prices in second-tier cities are not expensive, and now some young people, even those without family background, are unwilling to go to first-tier cities.

The migration of industry and population actually represents the direction of buying a house.

Now you have some money but you can’t afford the first-tier cities. I don’t recommend you to buy in the surrounding urban agglomerations.

Think about it, you live in Shenzhen and bought it in Huizhou. Now there is no subway, and the transportation is inconvenient. It takes hours to commute back and forth. The education and medical conditions are not good. If you really want to see a doctor, you have to go to Shenzhen run.

In places like Zhongshan, Huizhou, the industrial facilities are not as good as those of second-tier cities. It is better for the population to stay in Zhongshan and Huizhou and return directly to the second-tier provincial capitals.

If you have money to invest, you don’t have to worry about house prices not going up when you buy a house in a second-tier city.

In the past, the appreciation rate of the first-tier may be faster than that of the second-tier, but it may not be the case in the future, especially the first-tier non-core general housing, I guess it will not be able to outperform the houses in the second-tier core area.

For example, cities that have developed better in recent years, such as Chengdu, Wuhan, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Xiamen, Hefei, Xi'an, and other second-tier cities, the growth rate is not weaker than that of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen.

To be honest, it is impossible for first-tier cities to regain the momentum of crazy growth in the past. You must keep in mind the words whether to live in real estate or not to speculate. The more the city has a strong trend of real estate speculation, the tighter the supervision will be.

Moreover, the first-line capital threshold is high. For example, if you only have a down payment budget of 1 million, you can only buy leftovers in Shenzhen.

Instead, if you go to the second line, there are many choices for this budget.

There is a young couple next to me. Although they are still working in Shenzhen, they have already bought a house in Wuhan. The area is large, it is close to the subway entrance, and the surrounding schools and hospitals are all in operation. I plan to work for a few more years before going back.

Finally, do a small survey. If you can't afford a first-tier house, will you choose to go back to the second-tier house? Or three or four lines? Still insist on staying in the first-tier renting a house or buying a house in the surrounding metropolitan area.

  This year's trend seems to have completely changed. For example, in terms of employment or income, or even what everyone thinks, there are more and more phenomena that are different from before. Maybe people who are a little older may still recall the not-too-distant mid-1990s. Some people feel completely strange and strange.

The biggest anomaly is actually very simple, that is, everyone is very realistic, students are more curvy, the elderly are more self-examination, young and middle-aged people, that is, try not to consume, get married, or have W. As far as the group is concerned, the feeling has changed. In rural areas, N tubes have appeared. In cities, the prices of necessities have risen and fallen, and inflation and deflation have gone hand in hand.

From a microscopic point of view, stagflation has arrived. It is not easy for everyone to find jobs, and their income has also dropped greatly. Even if there is no drop, there will be no increase.

Macroscopically speaking, that is all walks of life, the primary, secondary and tertiary industries are in a downturn, whether it is production and processing, light industry manufacturing, or ordinary commerce and trade, as well as import and export, and even small service industries on the street, such as catering, hotel accommodation , life services, tourism, etc., are all on the decline!

You said that Zibo BBQ in Onion Province is on fire? After all, it is an isolated case. From the perspective of breadth, the cultural tourism of the southern slaves has not yet fully responded.

Flexible employment has also begun to lose its popularity. In this year's wave of unemployment, more and more people join in, with higher education and lower unit prices. , more and more volume; and self-media short video live streaming, the bonus period has passed, and now it is a process of rectifying the source and cleaning up the sand. Ordinary people have no special ability to do this, and they can't make money.

The same is true for young people. Graduates are under increasing pressure on Y. Everyone understands the value of the establishment, so they all go to the public examination to go to the shore. Even 985/211 and even the sea turtles go to the landing position in the small county. However, this has begun to eliminate the non-staffed ones. Although the regular ones have been partially expanded, the constraints cannot relieve the near thirst.

I even said a few days ago that the current failure rate of 16-24 has reached 19.6, this number is so weird! And some industries, such as education and training, have been wiped out in the past few years. As for the pillar D industry, after a short period of heat this year, it has fallen into a downturn.

As for other consumer industries, such as automobiles, commodities, and large-scale cultural tourism, they still haven't picked up. Everyone is short of money, except for Zhou Gongzi and Catfish Princess.

These are unusual appearances and signs.

When more and more companies quit, even those who survived mostly began to cut wages and employees, shrinking continuously, and the number of disabled people increased. Then there are new features.

This is why a large number of failures did not appear in the mask for three years, but this year has become the most difficult year to achieve Y. Even in the southeastern coastal areas, such as the free shipping area and the Yangtze River Delta, which are the frontiers with the strongest economy, and some first- and second-tier areas, many people cannot find jobs.

So this year there are ten new features!

1. There are more and more food delivery, courier delivery and online car-hailing on the street. There are also many older, educated people, and even many female practitioners. However, the unit price income is getting lower and lower, and the volume is getting higher and higher. The more powerful it is (as the Y rate is insufficient, forced to work flexibly).

2. There are more and more pharmacies, street stalls, and small restaurants, but the homogeneity is severe, there is no special competitiveness, and the survival period is even less than three months. , can only be forced to start a business, but the risk is getting higher and higher).

3. There are more and more people doing live broadcasting to sell goods, and some data say that 90% of them are not making money, while 13% of practitioners are losing money, but everyone is still flocking to it (the publicity channel allows more people to enter, but The industry is already rectifying its roots, so it is getting more and more volume).

4. Many companies in the tertiary industry in the city are no longer recruiting. Many companies have begun to lay off part of their employees. In many productive enterprises and factories, the number of recruits has dropped significantly, and piece-rate wages have also begun to decline. In this way, people over the age of 36 are no longer required.

5. The number of people buying F is obviously much less than in previous years, and even second-hand F is priceless (the bulk is becoming more and more cautious, and the mainstay of D production is not hot).

6. Nowadays, people are becoming more and more cautious when spending money. They definitely don’t spend what is unnecessary, but they don’t paint when they don’t need to spend. If they must be spent, they should be tight-fitting. Shop around; after all, you can’t earn much. Three years of savings in masks is almost exhausted. The wife and children at home need to eat, the parents need to take medicine for the elderly, water, electricity and heating network, fried rice, oil, salt and tea, weddings and weddings, weddings and weddings.

7. Prices are erratic. Some of the necessities of life are rising in price and others are falling in price. The overall consumption is deflationary, but it also manifests as stagflation. stagnation and slow L-curve continuation).

8. Many leased office buildings in commercial districts are vacant. The previous tenants’ companies went bankrupt or quit their leases. There are even many shops in the vegetable market that are empty.

9. Foreign M orders are falling off a cliff after the beginning of the year, and the number of employees is also reducing on a large scale (import and export are also starting to increase).

10. More and more people are forced to lie down and not go to work, or they can only work as freelancers, or rely on their parents to eat and wait for death. More people control their pockets, cut down their expenses, and dare not spend as much money as before. . And more and more young people don't fall in love and don't get married, and if they get married, they don't want a baby. Even if they already want a baby, they won't want two or three just because they let go.

Think about it, everyone?

Now the version was changed at the end of last year and the end of the year. Now it seems that the big market is recovering, but in fact, all walks of life are basically undergoing a major reshuffle.

For individuals, the age of 35 becomes more prominent. Those who are 35 years old can only graduate, and even those who go ashore are not good. They couldn’t go ashore before, and they could still hang out on the shore as a non-staff. Now they have begun to clear the non-staff. The general environment continues to be L-shaped, consumption is sluggish, and the Y is pulling. The income is unstable, and it is difficult to see through this year's market.

What's next? No one knows for sure.

It is precisely because the current events are so different from everyone's expectations that everyone is confused.

Still those few words, here are some suggestions:

Don't start a business, don't invest in Z, don't make troubles, save more money: the situation is not good, even if there is no business, life will be difficult, so you must ensure cash flow and a certain amount of savings for emergencies. And venture capital Teng, either burns savings or burns D funds, don't do it like this. Ordinary people have no resources, no connections, and no poor information. In this era of Chengdu dogs, that is to give away people's heads, so don't bother. Low-key, low-key.

The body is the capital of that, and ensuring health: health is the first element of survival, and only good health is the cost of going on. Although the times are gloomy, we must ensure our health, stay up late, reduce smoking and drinking, eat a reasonable diet, exercise properly, and ensure rest. In this era, you have to survive, resist, and others fall, and you can become the ultimate victor.

Don’t waste time, keep your job: Looking at 2023, it’s good to have a job. Now that you have a job, you can pay your salary on time. If you are not an ordinary person who is not short of jobs, don’t change jobs now. Survival is the first theorem, don't toss, don't be frightened, don't waver, just hang on.

Give it a go, become a motorcycle by being single, and roll to death: If you are single and the whole family is not hungry, then it doesn’t matter, but many social CHUs have wives and children, and old people to support, so there is no choice but to roll , then spend more time and energy than others, and you can still gain a little bit if you are involved in death. If you earn more than others, you will have more confidence. There is no way, Chuan Jianguo said it well, life is like this, and all sentient beings suffer.

Keep learning, part-time high-point sideline: If you have spare time, you can learn some skills and do a part-time job. Although it is tiring, you can earn more and improve your life. Dubbing, editing, collaboration, planning, self-media, e-commerce, You can live broadcast or anything, just earn more.

Lay flat, what do you like: This is suitable for single young people. If you are sure that you will not get H or W in the future, it will be simple. Parents usually have old insurance, so you can lie flat. We don’t make cakes anymore. Don't expect points, although the quality of life may not be very good, but it is much easier.

Those who are capable, China Resources Vanguard: Don’t pretend, it’s a showdown, who told us to vote for such a difficult South slave with poor TAi skills, if you are capable, learn more skills, whether it is basic such as electric welding, excavator, It is still advanced, such as biotechnology, computer, programming, etc., if you study foreign languages hard, you can get out. Although the outside area has been declining in recent years, it is still stronger than the southern slave as a whole. Northern European Luoba, Western European Luoba, Damei, Kangaroo, Maple Leaf, etc., are all fine, and they can still enjoy dividends for decades. After all, even the depression over there is still a ceiling compared to the southern slave.

In April this year, Lloyd, a member of the management committee of Freudenberg Group, just completed his long-awaited trip to China. He not only visited many companies under the group and upstream and downstream industries, but also the Shanghai Technology Innovation Department just established last year. Excited.

The reporter noticed that in recent years, multinational companies investing in China are no longer limited to building new factories and production lines, but also "moving" their R&D centers and business headquarters to Shanghai. Some companies' innovation parks have even been expanded three times in ten years to better cultivate local talents. human resources and serve the global market. For this reason, the agglomeration effect of Shanghai's global R&D center has been significantly enhanced, and the energy level of the headquarters economy has been continuously improved.

Strengthen the layout in China

Not long ago, the Freudenberg Group announced its annual report for the 2022 fiscal year, and its performance in China has become one of the highlights of the annual report. According to Lloyd, the Freudenberg Group achieved sales of over 11.7 billion euros last year, a year-on-year increase of 17%, of which the sales in Greater China were 10.22 billion yuan, accounting for about 11% of the total sales.

"Last year was the first time for Freudenberg to participate in the CIIE. The CIIE provides an excellent platform for foreign companies to introduce advanced technologies and products to China, and also creates a window for two-way communication with Chinese partners." Ke Debao Xu Beidi, representative of Bao Group in Asia, told reporters that as a "new friend" of the CIIE, Freudenberg established contact with many potential customers during the short five-day exhibition. For example, Freudenberg Power Systems Group used the CIIE The meeting completed its first show in China, and the Chinese team of Freudenberg Power Systems has reached cooperation intentions with a number of commercial vehicle and shipbuilding companies. Due to the fruitful harvest last year, Freudenberg will continue to participate in the CIIE this year. "The CIIE is open and diverse, and Freudenberg is full of expectations for this year's CIIE." Xu Beidi said.

At present, China has gradually grown into Freudenberg's third largest market, and Freudenberg, which is of German origin, also pays more attention to localization. For China's new energy vehicle market, Freudenberg's different business groups have launched products and solutions to better meet the needs of domestic consumers. "For example, our shock absorption products can improve the comfort of drivers and passengers, non-woven products can isolate noise, filters can ensure clean air, sealing and special chemical products can ensure battery operation, and gas diffusion layers in fuel cells, etc." Luo said. Ed said.

Focus on localization and innovation

During the interview, the reporter noticed that the new technological innovation department located in Shanghai was often mentioned. In May last year, Freudenberg Group's technological innovation department was established in Shanghai, which mainly conducts forward-looking research in the fields of electric transportation, new energy, sustainable development and intelligent manufacturing.

"This innovation department focuses on the long-term dimension, such as studying the technological trends in 2050, so as to judge which product materials or solutions may be the growth points of Freudenberg's future business." Lloyd explained that in the future Oriented open innovation requires the discovery of emerging technologies in China and the cooperation with Chinese universities, research institutions and start-up companies. Xu Beidi also said: "Shanghai has gathered the headquarters and R&D centers of many world-leading companies, and has abundant universities and scientific research resources. Shanghai's innovation and technology platform can easily attract well-educated talents. It is very important for Bao Group.”

At present, the department is focusing on exploring emerging technologies in the fields of sustainable development such as raw material recycling and bio-based materials from relevant domestic universities, research institutions and start-up companies. In addition, emerging industries such as carbon dioxide capture and utilization, power battery recycling, renewable energy electrolysis of water to green hydrogen, high-temperature fuel cells, and machine vision are also the focus of attention.

Since the beginning of this year, strengthening China's local research and development capabilities has become one of Freudenberg's core strategies. Many companies under the group have decided to increase investment in research and development, especially in the Yangtze River Delta region. Xu Beidi said frankly: "The Freudenberg Group's Asian regional headquarters is located in Pudong, Shanghai. Many of our investments in China are concentrated in Shanghai as the core, including the Yangtze River Delta region of Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Setting the regional headquarters in Pudong, Shanghai gives us a We bring a lot of convenience."

As early as 2014, its subsidiary Klüber Lubricant started to build its Shanghai R&D center. After nearly ten years of development, the Shanghai R&D center has become Klüber's second largest R&D center in the world. Shu Mingde, Kluber's global chief technology officer, said that because China has a mature industrial chain and broad market opportunities, Kluber will continue to make efforts in traditional industries, and will also continue to make efforts in emerging industries such as smart manufacturing, new energy vehicles, and renewable energy. The field takes the lead in layout. This year also plans to increase investment in its Shanghai R&D center, and will continue to invest millions of euros in capacity expansion between 2026 and 2029 according to actual conditions.

Scientific research centers become investment rookies

Freudenberg is just a microcosm of global technology multinational companies increasing investment in scientific research in China. In recent years, many chemical material industry giants have chosen to establish or expand R&D centers in Shanghai to serve the Chinese market by cultivating localized talents.

Recently, Brudermüller, chairman of the executive board of BASF, said at the annual general meeting of shareholders that about half of the sales of global industries are in the Chinese market, while BASF’s sales in China account for less than 15% of the company’s total sales. Therefore, BASF is continuing to invest to continue Achieve business growth in China. He believes that the opportunities for investment and development in China far outweigh the risks, which will help make up for the slow development of the European market. To this end, BASF promises that by 2030 nearly half of its chemical manufacturing will be in China.

Lou Jianfeng, chairman and president of BASF Greater China, revealed a set of data that can explain the problem better: BASF China has more than 10,000 employees, of which about 10% are engaged in innovation and R&D. Shanghai Innovation Park is the R&D center of BASF Asia Pacific. The hub is also one of BASF's global R&D centers. Since it was put into use in 2012, the expansion has been completed twice. At present, the construction of the third phase of the Shanghai Innovation Park has been basically completed and will be completed in June this year. By then, BASF's total investment in the Shanghai Innovation Park will reach approximately 280 million euros.

As early as 2001, Covestro established a polymer R&D center in Shanghai and gradually developed into an innovation center in the Asia-Pacific region. Today, it has provided R&D service support to customers around the world. As the largest comprehensive production base of Covestro in the world, the Shanghai Integrated Base launched three projects last year, among which the elastomer factory is expected to be put into operation this year, and the water-based polyurethane dispersion (PUD) and its supporting production lines will also be completed next year. . Chen Yun, the general manager of the base, said that the Shanghai Integrated Base has entered its third decade and will focus on strengthening and supplementing the chain, completing the entire industrial chain and achieving zero carbon at the same time.

"In China for the world" has become a trend

Multinational chemical companies have increased their investment in scientific research in China, which has made up for the R&D shortcomings of the domestic chemical industry to a certain extent. Statistics show that in 2020, the R&D investment of the domestic chemical industry will account for 0.9% of the total revenue, while the R&D investment of the European Union, the United States, Japan and South Korea will account for 1.9%, 1.8%, 5.6% and 3.0% of the total revenue respectively. For this reason, the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting High-quality Development of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan" proposes that by 2025, the R&D investment of enterprises above designated size in the petrochemical and chemical industry will account for more than 1.5% of the main business income.

"In the past, multinational chemical companies were accustomed to the convenience and benefits brought by globalization, and slowed down the pace of basic research and development with high investment and high risk. However, under the background of energy transformation, multinational chemical companies will restart R&D and innovation." China Chemical Industry Information According to the analysis of the center, scientific and technological innovation is and will continue to become the core competitiveness of global chemical companies. In the next three years, the development opportunities of China's chemical industry will focus on technological change, double carbon and stable economic growth.

A research report by the Shanghai Development and Reform Research Institute also pointed out that the status of foreign-invested R&D institutions in Shanghai in their parent companies and in the world is constantly improving, and they are gradually developing R&D activities that are of great strategic significance for long-term development in China and the world . At present, a large number of foreign-funded R&D institutions in Shanghai have the ability to develop new products for Asia and the world, and the innovation model of "in China for the world" has become an important development trend of foreign-funded R&D institutions in China.

In recent years, Shanghai has continuously increased its efforts to attract foreign investment, and the agglomeration effect of R&D centers has been significantly enhanced. In December 2020 and November 2022, Shanghai successively issued revised policies on foreign-funded R&D centers and regional headquarters of multinational corporations, adding "global R&D centers" and "division headquarters of multinational corporations" to continuously improve the economic level of headquarters. Last year, Shanghai added 60 regional headquarters of multinational companies and 25 foreign-funded R&D centers. Over the past 20 years, a total of 891 regional headquarters of multinational companies and 531 foreign-funded R&D centers have been established, continuing to play the role of resource gathering and radiation of the headquarters.

最近各个省份的人口数据都差不多出来了，又有新变化。

人口走势有一个很明显的变化是，之前那些人口增量一线都市圈，纷纷出现了调减的情况。

先是京津冀都市圈，继2021年负增长29.84万人后，2022年人口流失规模扩大至42.3万人。

其中，北京市人口减少了4.3万人，天津市人口减少了10万人，河北省的人口减少了28万人。

如果按照这个速度减下去，10年整个京津冀地区将会净流出人口高达300-400万人，甚至会更多。

还有长三角都市圈。去年整个长三角的人口增量只有47万人，10年来首次跌破100万，创下了历史最低。

江苏省的净增人口数量也从28万人减少到10万人，减少了一半。

浙江从净增人口72万人减少到37万人，也是减半。

上海市更是出现了直接负增长的情况，常住人口从2489万人减少到2475万人，是10年内人口减少最多的一次。

长三角作为经济高度活跃的地区，一直都有人口吸引力。但即便是像上海这样的大城市，这几年人口流失的趋势也开始显现出来了。

那人口流动走向都有哪些趋势呢？

一是都市圈的内部迁移。

比如长三角都市圈，从上海流出的人口，来到了安徽。安徽的净增人口在逐年增加，去年已经净增14万。

二是从一线到二线城市圈的迁移。

去年重庆的人口增量净增了7.7万，江西省净流入人口9.4万人，内蒙古自治区净流入人口6.5万人。

成都的情况也类似，人口从2021年的82.8万人略微增加至84.2万人。

用脚投票的数据往往才是最有力的。

大都市圈的吸引力，已经不如之前那么强劲。随着人口流动大洗牌，二线省会城市已经崛起了。

为什么很多人都想往二线城市跑了？

我认为有两点原因。

1、一线城市的生活成本太高了。

先不说买房，光是养娃这一项，就能把人给榨干。

如果你要鸡娃，搞各种培训，一年几十万都有可能。

之前有育娃研究员做过统计，要把一个孩子培养到成年，一线城市随随便便就是百万起步。试问有多少普通家庭可以付得起这个成本？

2、产业迁移驱动。

除了华为这种少数转移到东莞的，还有周边城市群除了低端制造业就近转移外，高端产业都不会选择周边都市圈。

因为这些周边城市群，除了物流近之外没有其他优势，也没有形成产业链。像河北和天津一样，北京的产业是转移过来了，但他们承接不住啊。

反观现在的二线城市，对落地的企业非常友好，无论是政策还是营商环境，像极了早期的一线城市。

首先，很多二线在招商引资上，特别是高端产业上是很舍得投入的，周边都市圈没有这个优势去跟二线去抢。

你看像京东方去合肥投资几百亿，当时合肥政府拿出了家底投资京东方股份，另外土地、税收都有巨大优惠。

还有一些强二线城市，率先发展起新兴产业，直接和大城市抢产业。

比如杭州高新区早年通过产业链招商，引进了一批像吉利集团、海亮集团的顶尖高新企业，致力于人工智能、云计算、大数据、物联网等顶尖核心技术的研发。

还率先打造了大健康产业集群，如今全球前十大药企中，已有一半在杭州经济技术开发区投资。

二线城市没有产业链怎么办？那就制造一条出来，把整个产业链给垂直整合了。

像威海高新区，为了惠普产业链量身定制了占地6000亩的激光打印机产业园，同时针对产业链发展所需定制配套了生产、研发、检测、认证等服务，最终引进了美国惠普公司。

另外，一些强二线，比如武汉、成都、重庆普遍都有高校教育资源优势，不缺人才，企业想招人很容易，用人成本也比一线低很多。

特别是高端产业，他们的研究院需要的是人才，不需要物流，所以大部分企业去投资的时候，都会首选杭州成都武汉西安合肥这样的区域中心城市。

这些是其他都市圈的城市所不具备的，最典型的就是中山、惠州这些城市。

之前就看到粉丝在我们文章底下留言问“为什么中山地多，房价便宜，位置不错，环境又好，经济却不发达呢？”

我想这个答案已经不用我说了，中山确实如这个粉丝说的这样，相比于很多城市，条件已经很好了，但是中山没有大量的人才储备啊，高校资源一般，企业过去了招不到人啊。

这些年来，二线城市的基础配套一直都在完善。医疗、教育、交通地铁......一线有的二线也慢慢都有了。详细可以看我们之前这篇文章：资本大撤退？

再加上二线城市房价还不贵，现在有些年轻人，没有家庭背景的也不愿意去一线卷了。

产业、人口的迁移，其实也代表着买房的方向。

现在手里有点钱但是买不起一线城市的，我不建议你往周边城市群买。

你想想你住在深圳，买在惠州，现在没有地铁，交通也不方便，光是通勤时间来回就要花上好几个小时，教育医疗条件也都不好，真要看病，还得往深圳跑。

像惠州中山这种地方，产业配套都不如二线城市，人口留在中山惠州还不如直接回流二线省会城市。

那手里有钱要投资的，买二线城市的房子，你也不用担心房价不涨。

过去也许一线升值速度跑得比二线快，但未来不见得，尤其是一线非核心的普宅，我估计会跑不赢二线核心区的房子。

比如这几年发展得好一些的城市，成都、武汉、杭州、南京、厦门、合肥、西安等二线城市的涨幅，其实不比北上广深弱。

说实在的，要想让一线城市重现以前疯狂涨幅的势头，那是不可能的。房住不炒这几个字要牢牢记住，越是炒房风气重的城市，上头盯得越紧。

而且一线的资金门槛高啊，比如说你只有一百万的首付预算，在深圳你只能买到边角料。

反而去二线，这个预算的选择就很多了。

我身边就有一对小夫妻，人虽然还在深圳上班，但已经在武汉买了房子。面积大、离地铁口近、周边学校医院全齐活了，打算再打几年工就回去了。

最后做个小调查，如果你买不起一线的房子，会选择回二线吗？还是三四线？还是坚持留在一线租房或者去周边都市圈买房。

 今年的风向，貌似是完全的变了。如论事就业还是收入，乃至大家都想法，跟以前不一样的现象，出现的越来越多，可能年纪稍微大点的人，可能还会回忆起并不遥远的90年代中期，而年龄小一些的人，就完全是陌生又诡异的感觉。

最大的反常其实很简单，就是大家都格外现实了，学生更卷了，老人更省检了，年轻人和中年人，那就是尽量不消费了，不婚恋了，不生W了，而在群体来说，那就是感觉变了，在农村出现了N管，在城市就是必需品物价有涨有降，通胀通缩并行。

微观来说就是滞胀到了，大家工作不太好找了，收入也大大的降了，就算没有降，也没有任何增长了。

宏观来说，那就是各行各业，第一二三产业都不景气，无论是生产加工，轻工业制造，还是普通的商贸经贸，以及进出口，乃至街上的小服务业，就是餐饮、酒店住宿、生活服务、旅游等，都在下降！

你说葱省淄博烧烤火了？那毕竟是个个例，从广度来看，全南slave的文旅，还没有完全回复。

灵活就业也开始不香了，快递外卖网约车，在今年的失Y潮中，越来越多的人加入，学历越来越高，单价越来越低，甚至东南地区还有过那个啥，越来越卷；而自媒体短视频直播带货，红利期已过，现在是正本清源大浪淘沙的过程，普通人没什么特殊的能力去做这个，也挣不到钱了。

年轻人也是如此，毕业生们就Y压力越来越大，大家都明白编制的香，所以都去考公考编上岸，就连985/211甚至海龟，都去卷小县城的上岸位置。然而这又开始清退编外的，虽然正编的有部分扩大，但是约束解不了近渴。

甚至前几天都说了，当前16-24的失Y率都到了19.6了，这个数字很那个啥啊！而有些行业，例如教培前些年已经被抹掉了，至于支柱的D产行业，今年在短暂的热了一下之后，又陷入阴跌温凉了。

至于其他的消费产业，例如汽车，大宗以及大规模文旅，还是没起来，大家爱手里都缺钱，除了周宫子和鲶鱼公主。

这是不寻常的表象和信号。

当越来越多的企业不做了，就算幸存的也大多开始减薪减人，不断收缩，失Y人员增加。那么就有了新的特征。

这就是为什么大量的失Y没有出现在口罩三年，而是今年成了就Y最难的一年。甚至东南沿海地区，例如包邮区和长三角等地，作为经济最强的前沿，以及一些一二线，也有很多人找不到工作。

所以今年出现了十个新的特征！

1、街上送外卖、送快递和网约车越来越多，还出现了许多年龄大、有学历的人，甚至还有许多女性从业者，然而单价收入越来越低，卷的越来越厉害（就Y率不足，被迫灵活就业）。

2、药店、地摊、小餐饮越来越多，但是同质严重，没有特殊竞争力，存活期甚至不足三个月，成本越来越高，收益越来越低（咩有就Y渠道和承载，只能被迫创业，但是风险越来越高）。

3、做直播卖货的人越来越多，而有数据说其实90%的人不挣钱，而13%的从业者在赔钱，但是大家还是趋之若鹜（宣传的风口让更多人进入，但是行业已经在正本清源，所以也是越来越卷）。

4、城市里许多第三产业的公司，都已经不在招聘，很多公司还开始部分辞退裁员，剩下的要么降低工资，要么工资不涨降低福利。很多生产性的企业工厂，招聘人数大大下降，计件工资也开始下降，就这样36岁以上的都也不要了（就Y岗位进一步收缩，大家挣不到，经营和生产类企业都在收缩）。

5、买F的人，明显比之前几年少了很多，甚至二手F都有价无市（大宗越来越谨慎，D产支柱火热不在）。

6、当前的人，花钱越来越谨慎，没必要的肯定不花，可花可不花的也不画了，必须要花的也要紧身的花，货比三家；毕竟挣不到多少，积蓄在口罩三年也耗的差不多了，家里老婆孩子要吃饭，父母养老要吃药，水电暖气网，炒米油盐茶，红白喜事人情世故，全都要花钱（消费大规模降级）。

7、物价飘忽不定，生活必需品，有的涨价有的降价，整体子消费是通缩的，可是又表现为滞胀，米面粮油，肉蛋奶鱼，水果蔬菜，衣服鞋帽，针头线脑，无不如此（停滞和慢慢的L曲线持续）。

8、很多商业区出租的写字楼空置，之前的租户公司倒闭破产或者退租揍了，甚至菜市场都有许多店铺是空的（创业低迷，企业生存艰难）。

9、外M订单是，开年后也是断崖式下滑，从业人员的用工数量也在大规模减少（进出口也开始拉）。

10、越来越多的人被迫躺平不上班或者只能自由职业者，要么依靠父母混吃等死S，更多的人是控制口袋，缩减开支，不敢像以前那样大手大脚花钱了。而越来越多的年轻人，不恋爱不结H，结H了也不要娃，就算已经要了，也不会因为放开，要两个三个。

大家想想是不是这样？

现在去年年终岁末转换了版本，现在看上去大行情在复苏中，但实际上各行各业基本都在大洗牌。

对于个体来说，35岁变得愈发突出。35的只能毕业，甚至上岸的都不香了，之前上不了岸，还能干个编外的在岸边晃悠，现在也开始清编外了，本以为开年后会是好开始，没想到却是大环境持续L形，消费萎靡，就Y拉了，收入不稳，看不透今年的行情。

下一步会如何?没有人说的准了。

正因为当前的事和大家都预期有太大的差异，让大家都迷茫了。

还是那几句话，给点几个建议：

不创业，不投Z，不折腾，多存钱：形势不好，就算没有zhai务，日子也不好过，所以要保证现金流和一定的储蓄，以备不时之需。而创业投资腾，要么烧储蓄，要么烧D款，别这样搞。普通人没资源没人脉没信息差，在这个卷成都dog的时代，那就是送人头，千万别折腾。低调，在低调。

身体才是那啥的本钱，保证健康：健康才是生存的第一要素，身体健康才有走下去的成本。虽然时代灰暗，但是还要保证自己健康，少熬夜，少烟酒，合理饮食，适当锻炼，保证休息。在这个时代，熬着了，抗过去了，别人倒下去了，自己才能成为最终胜利的人。

苟住别浪，保住工作：看2023这样子，能有个工作就不错了，现在有工作还能按时发薪的，如果不是大牛大咖不缺饭碗的普通人，就现别换工作，生存下去才是第一定理，别折腾，别得瑟，不要浪，苟住。

搏一搏，单身变摩托，往死里卷：如果是一人吃饱全家不饿的单身，那么无所谓，但是许多社CHU有老婆孩子，有老人要养，那没办法，就只能去卷了，那就付出比别人更多的时间和精力，往死里卷，还是能有点收获的，比别人多点收益，就多点底气。没办法，川建国说得好，人生就是这样，众生皆苦。

保持学习，兼职高点副业：有闲余时间，可以学点技能，做个兼职，虽然累，但毕竟能多挣一点，改善下生活，配音，剪辑，协作，策划，自媒体，电商，直播什么的都可以，多挣点是点。

躺平了，爱咋咋地：这个适合单身年轻人，如果确定今后不结H，不要W，那就简单了，父母一般也有老保，完全可以躺平了，咱也不做蛋糕了，也不指望分了，虽然生活质量可能不太好，但是轻松多了。

有能力的，华润万家：不装了，摊牌了，谁让咱们投TAi技术差，投了如此艰难的南slave，有能力的，就多学点技能，无论是基本的例如电焊，挖机，还是高级的例如生物技术，计算机，编程等，在好好学学外语，可以润出去。虽然外边这些年也在下降，但是整体还是比南slave强点的。北欧罗坝，西欧罗坝，大漂亮，袋鼠，枫叶等，都可以，还能吃几十年红利，毕竟就算那边的洼地，对比南slave也是天花板。

今年4月，科德宝集团管理委员会成员洛伊德刚完成期待已久的中国之行，不仅参观了集团旗下多家公司和上下游产业，其中去年刚设立的上海技术创新部门更是让她兴奋不已。

记者注意到，近年来跨国企业投资中国不再局限于新建厂房和生产线，还将研发中心和事业总部“搬”来上海，一些企业的创新园区甚至十年三度扩建，以便更好地培养本地化人才和服务全球市场。为此，上海的全球研发中心的集聚效应显著增强，总部经济能级不断提升。

加强在华布局

前不久，科德宝集团公布了2022财年年报，其中在华业绩成为年报亮点之一。据洛伊德介绍，去年科德宝集团实现销售额超117亿欧元，同比增长17%，其中大中华区销售额102.2亿元，占总销售额约11%。

“去年是科德宝第一次参加进博会。进博会为外企将先进科技与产品引入中国提供了一个绝佳的平台，同时也创造了与中国合作伙伴双向沟通的窗口。”科德宝集团亚洲地区代表许倍帝告诉记者，作为进博会“新朋友”，科德宝在短短5天的展会期间与许多潜在客户建立了联系，比如科德宝电能系统集团就借助进博会完成了中国首秀，后续科德宝电能系统中国团队与多家商用车和造船企业达成合作意向。由于去年的收获颇丰，今年科德宝还将继续参加进博会。“进博会是开放和多元的，科德宝对今年的进博会充满期待。”许倍帝说。

目前，中国已经逐渐成长为科德宝的第三大市场，德系血统的科德宝也更加重视本土化。针对中国的新能源汽车市场，科德宝不同业务集团已推出产品和解决方案，更好适配国内消费者的需求。“比如，我们的减震产品可以提高驾乘者的舒适度，无纺布产品隔绝噪音，过滤器保证洁净空气，密封和特种化工产品保证电池运行，燃料电池里面的气体扩散层等。”洛伊德说道。

着眼本土化创新

在采访过程中，记者注意到，位于上海的全新技术创新部门常常被提及。去年5月，科德宝集团技术创新部门在上海设立，主要围绕电动交通、新能源、可持续发展和智能制造等领域开展前瞻性研究。

“这个创新部门着眼的是长期维度，比如研究2050年有哪些技术趋势，以此来判断哪些产品材料或解决方案，可能是科德宝未来业务的增长点。”洛伊德解释道，以未来为导向的开放式创新，需要在国内发掘新兴技术，寻求与中国的大学、研究机构和初创公司的合作。许倍帝也表示：“上海汇聚了众多全球领先企业的总部与研发中心，并拥有丰富的高校和科研资源。上海的创新和科技平台，很容易吸引到受过良好教育的人才，这对科德宝集团而言颇为重要。”

目前，该部门正在重点挖掘国内相关大学、研究机构和初创公司在原材料回收再利用和生物基材料等可持续发展领域的新兴技术。此外，二氧化碳捕集和利用、动力电池回收、可再生能源电解水制绿氢、高温燃料电池、机器视觉等新兴行业也是关注重点。

今年以来，加强中国本土研发实力，已上升为科德宝集团的核心战略之一，集团旗下多家公司都确定加大研发的投入，特别是长三角地区的投资。许倍帝坦言：“科德宝集团的亚洲地区总部就设在上海浦东，我们在中国的投资很多集中在以上海为核心，包括江苏和浙江的长三角地区，将地区总部设在上海浦东给我们带来许多便利。”

早在2014年，旗下克鲁勃润滑剂公司开始建设其上海研发中心，经过近十年的发展，上海研发中心已成为克鲁勃全球第二大研发中心。克鲁勃全球首席技术官舒明德表示，由于中国拥有成熟的产业链和广阔的市场机遇，克鲁勃除了在传统产业继续发力，还将在智能制造、新能源汽车、可再生能源等新兴领域率先布局。今年还计划加大对其上海研发中心的投资，并将根据实际情况在2026年至2029年期间继续投资数百万欧元用于扩充产能。

科研中心成投资新秀

科德宝只是全球技术跨国公司加大在华科研投入的一个缩影，近年来不少化学材料行业巨头选择在上海成立或扩建研发中心，通过培养本土化人才来服务中国市场。

近日，巴斯夫执行董事会主席薄睦乐在年度股东大会上说，全球化工业约一半销售额在中国市场，而巴斯夫在华销售额占公司总销售额比重不到15%，因此巴斯夫正持续投资，以继续实现在华业务增长。他认为，在中国的投资和发展所面临机遇远大于风险，有助于弥补欧洲市场发展缓慢的不足。为此，巴斯夫承诺，到2030年将近一半的化工制造将在中国。

巴斯夫大中华区董事长兼总裁楼剑锋透露了一组数据更能说明问题：巴斯夫中国的员工超过1万名，其中大约10%的员工从事创新和研发，上海创新园是巴斯夫亚太区的研发枢纽，也是巴斯夫全球研发的中心之一。自2012年投入使用以来两度完成扩建，目前上海创新园三期工程建设已经基本完成，今年6月份即将竣工。届时，巴斯夫在上海创新园的总投资将达到约2.8亿欧元。

早在2001年，科思创在上海成立聚合物研发中心并逐渐发展为亚太区创新中心，如今已向全球客户提供研发服务支持。作为科思创全球最大的综合性生产基地，上海一体化基地在去年集中上马了三个项目，其中弹性体工厂预计今年投入运营，水性聚氨酯分散体(PUD)及其配套生产线也将于明年竣工。该基地总经理陈耘表示，上海一体化基地进入第三个十年，将聚焦于强链补链，完备整个产业链的同时实现零碳。

“在中国为世界”成趋势

跨国化工企业加大对华科研力量的投入，一定程度上弥补了国内化工行业的研发短板。有数据显示，2020年国内化工行业研发投入占总收入0.9%，而欧盟、美国、日本及韩国的研发投入占总收入分别为1.9%、1.8%、5.6%、3.0%。为此，《关于“十四五”推动石化化工行业高质量发展的指导意见》提出，到2025年，石化化工行业规模以上企业研发投入占主营业务收入比重达1.5%以上。

“过去，跨国化工企业习惯于全球化带来的便利与效益，放缓了高投入高风险的基础研发步伐，但在能源转型大背景下,跨国化工企业将重启研发及创新。”中国化工信息中心分析称，科技创新正在并将持续成为全球化工企业的核心竞争力，未来三年中国化工行业发展机遇聚焦在技术变革、双碳与经济稳增长。

上海市发展改革研究院一篇调研报告也指出，在沪外资研发机构在其母公司的地位和全球的地位都在不断提升，并且逐步开展对于在中国和全球长期发展具有重要战略意义的研发活动。目前，大量在沪外资研发机构已经具备为亚洲乃至全球开发全新的产品的能力，“在中国为世界”的创新模式已经成为在华外资研发机构的重要发展趋势。

近年来，上海不断加大吸引外资的力度，研发中心的集聚效应显著增强。上海先后于2020年12月和2022年11月发布了经修订的外资研发中心、跨国公司地区总部政策，新增“全球研发中心”和“跨国公司事业部总部”，持续提升总部经济能级。上海去年新增跨国公司地区总部60家，外资研发中心25家，20年来累计已设立跨国公司地区总部891家、外资研发中心531家，持续发挥总部的资源集聚和辐射作用。