The Middle East is crazy, and it stabs the United States again 中东杀疯了,又捅美国一刀子

 The Middle East is crazy, and it stabs the United States again

1

Since this month, the global energy and political landscape has entered a new level of eating melons. The five major oil-producing countries in Saudi Arabia have once again cut production at the same time at the node of high oil prices.

Saudi Arabia cut production by an average of 500,000 barrels per day;

Iraq reduced by 211,000 barrels per day;

The United Arab Emirates reduced by 144,000 barrels per day;

Kuwait reduced by 128,000 barrels per day;

Kazakhstan cuts by 78,000 barrels per day

...These five brothers, together with a few little brothers around them, reduced the global crude oil supply by more than 1 million barrels per day in an instant. At the critical moment of high global inflation, the attending doctor, Saudi Arabia, not only did not give him a high fever. The energy market lost fire, but backhanded out a tube of "adrenaline".

On the same day, Russia, a good brother of the United States, began to cut production without saying a word, and continued to "actively" reduce crude oil production by an average of 500,000 barrels per day.

The U.S. official press spokesman immediately expressed regret for the production cuts by Middle East oil producers and Russia.

This wave of action is very counter-intuitive!

The world's leading crude oil supplier, when oil prices were high, not only did not step up shipments to make money, but instead cut production.

Russia, which is struggling with Ukraine, does not enter or sell more oil at a good price to subsidize the finances, but instead cuts production along with it.

On the contrary, the United States, the world's largest crude oil exporter, not only looked sad when faced with high oil prices, but was furious at the competitor's behavior of "not grabbing business".

Which one would you say these guys played?


According to the concept of our ordinary people, who does business without thinking about selling more when it is expensive?


Who doesn't want to sell more goods to make up for the family when the family is struggling?


Who doesn't want their competitors to grab two less deals from themselves when the market is good?


Why are all the brothers screwing up this time?


Listen to me, this is a big melon!




2





If we only look at the problem from the perspective of product trading in the crude oil market itself, the series of operations of the current Middle East brothers, the United States, and Russia are absolutely strange.


But the world is like this, nothing can exist independently from other factors, everything is related, and there is no absolute closed system.


When you think it’s about money, but you find something that has nothing to do with money, it must have a higher dimension, and this time Saudi Arabia is in a high-latitude area other than money, according to the waist of the United States. one knife.


We all know that Lao Mei used to have two big brothers in the Middle East, one was Israel and the other was Saudi Arabia. At that time, the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United States was really like Gao Qiqiang's frozen fish-bang bang hard.


But we all know that there is no love for no reason in this world. At that time, the reason why Saudi Arabia was so good with the United States was essentially the relationship between sales and God.


At that time, the United States was really short of oil! With the world's largest industrial system and the world's largest car ownership, the amount of oil burned every day is astronomical, and Saudi Arabia is so poor that only oil is left.


But later, with a technological breakthrough across the ages, this rigid alliance was broken, that is, shale oil extraction technology.


On the northern Great Plains of the United States, the second largest shale oil field in the world was discovered. Unlike Russia, the largest shale oil reserve country, and China, the third largest shale oil reserve country, his shale oil grows almost close to the surface. Yes, and on the Great Plains!


Russia's shale oil is the world's number one, but it's all piled up in Siberia. That thing just sends cotton jackets to workers, and the cost of mining has to be increased by a large amount.


Although China ranks third in the world, its storage is mainly distributed in the Yunnan-Guizhou-Sichuan area, where not only are the roads rugged and steep, but they are also buried deep.


Therefore, although the reserves of shale oil in the United States are the second in the world, its output is the first in the world, and it is the shale oil field with the lowest extraction cost.


Isn't this the end of the calf? !


The United States instantly changed from the world's largest oil importer to the largest oil producer. Not only did the United States share the same bed with it, but it also came to fight with it. Who can bear it?


Saudi: My love is like a tide, receding...




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Only the hatred between colleagues in this world is naked and firm.


Since the large-scale exploitation of shale oil in the United States, the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United States has actually begun to seem at odds.


But fortunately, the initial cost of extracting shale oil in the United States was very high, probably maintained at 60-79 US dollars per barrel.


In places like Saudi Arabia, where artesian wells are everywhere, the cost of crude oil extraction is even higher, which is more than ten dollars a barrel.


The two sides did not have a particularly sharp competitive relationship, but later shale oil refining technology made a huge breakthrough, and the cost of a barrel of more than 60 US dollars, Kuku gave it to less than 40 US dollars.


This is when something went wrong. Originally, US shale oil was used as domestic crude oil reserves, and the rest only came out to compete with Saudi Arabia for two bites when international oil prices were high.


Seeing the face of American soldiers, Saudi Arabia will endure it, but once the cost of shale oil drops by 40%, then under the condition of ordinary oil prices, the United States will also grab Saudi food.


Therefore, in the past few years, Saudi Arabia has adopted a dumping strategy, continuously increasing production to keep the international oil price below 30 US dollars, and its main goal is to starve the oil old in the United States to death.


However, as the United States continues to spread wars around the world, especially the oil-producing countries in the Middle East, almost all of them except Saudi Arabia have been bullied by the United States.


In addition, once the Russia-Uzbekistan war started, no matter how much you suppressed the international oil price, it would be impossible to lower it below 30. In the end, as the United States pulled out the "oxygen pipe" of the European Union, the international oil price completely let itself go.




4





However, the United States shouldn't have kicked Russia out of the SWIFT system, and it has dug a sinkhole for itself.


The idea of the United States itself is quite beautiful, kick Maozi out, so that the energy market of the European Union will belong to itself, but it never expected that it would use too much force!


The dollars that Chuan Jianguo and Bai Zhenhua produced from crazy inflation failed to flow into the Chinese market to eat meat, but were all kept in their own homes.


And the old Maozi directly overturned the US dollar settlement of crude oil in a rage. Now if he wants to buy oil from Maozi, he can either use rubles or RMB.


This directly caused all dollar inflation to be suffocated on the oil price, and at the highest point, the oil price directly rushed to more than 80 dollars a barrel.


With the collapse of U.S. dollar credit, the "ghost settlement" that China took the lead in using currency swap agreements has also begun to exert force. A large number of third world countries that have no ability to resist risks have thus escaped the blade of the U.S. dollar harvest.


This is very difficult!


Whose debt collection is to make the poor ghost pay back the money? Aren't they all rushing to pay off the debt with Xi'er?


But now through currency swaps, the third world countries have exchanged dollars from the big players in China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, and then returned them to the United States, which has completely paralyzed the United States!


Xin said: "Did I ask you to collect debts for US dollars? Why do I want this torn paper?! This is printed by myself, and what I want is your mine!"


So now there is a problem. The United States has basically not harvested valuable assets in this wave, and what is flowing back into the United States is the most flooded dollar.


The crude oil market is even more embarrassing. The more expensive the crude oil price, the more US crude oil companies earn, but all you get back from selling oil is dollars!


This is tantamount to exchanging the real gold and silver of the United States for other people's printed paper. This will not help the US economy except to continue to push up hyperinflation.


And the five countries in the Middle East and Lao Maozi suddenly continued to push up the price of crude oil at this juncture. The timing can be said to be quite beautiful!


Everything is inflation, but the operation of the country and the economy will never depend on currency but on materials.


When the price of oil goes up, the national energy procurement of the United States is directly forced to a dead end.


With the high oil price of $79 a barrel, is the U.S. government still purchasing energy reserves?


If you continue to purchase reserve energy, you will have to put more dollars into the market, but the biggest problem in the United States now is that there are too many dollars.


The Fed is still suicidally raising interest rates and trying to make a final effort to control inflation, and you will purchase energy at sky-high prices and continue to inject dollars into the market.


This is like taking a sip of heat-clearing and detoxifying and then drinking donkey penis soup. I don’t know if it will keep healthy or not, but it will definitely hurt the kidneys!


But if you don't make energy purchases, what do you use to stabilize prices? You can't control inflation without enough cheap energy being put on the market.


Because food and energy are the basis of all price levels, the price of food has been played crazy by myself, and now the price of energy is also crazy. You have stopped energy procurement, and CPI is no longer there, right? !


So now there is such a deadlock: as long as the oil price continues to rise, the US inflation will collapse from left to right.


As for the US government persuading domestic energy giants to take the initiative to lower oil prices?


For the United States, this is much more difficult than changing a president.


THE END

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中东杀疯了,又捅美国一刀子


1




从这个月起,全球能源和政治格局又进入了一个吃瓜新高度,以沙特五大产油国在油价高企的节点上,再次同时减产。

沙特日均减产50万桶;
伊拉克日减21.1万桶;
阿拉伯联合酋长国日减14.4万桶;
科威特日减12.8万桶;
哈萨克斯坦日减7.8万桶
……

这兄弟五个一波骚操作,加上身边几个小兄弟一起,全球原油日供应量瞬间再次缩减了100多万桶,正值全球通胀高温的节骨眼上,主治医生沙特不仅没给高烧不退的能源市场败火,反而反手掏出了一管“肾上腺素”。

同日,作为美利坚的好兄弟俄罗斯,二话不说也跟着开始减产,继续“主动”日均减产原油50万桶。

美国官方新闻发言人,对中东产油国和俄罗斯的减产行动,当即表示了遗憾。

这一波动作下来就很反直觉了啊!

全球首屈一指的原油供应商,在油价高企的时候,不仅不加紧出货赚钱,反而减产。

正在跟乌克兰死磕的俄罗斯,不进不趁着好价钱多卖点油补贴财政,反而跟着一起减产。

反倒是作为全球原油最大出货商的美国,在面对高油价的时候不仅一脸愁容,反而是被竞争对手“不抢生意”的行为气得暴跳如雷。

你说这个几个玩的是哪一出呢?

按照咱们普通人的概念,谁做生意不是想着在贵的时候多卖出去点?

谁家里拮据的时候不想多出点货找补一点家用?

谁又不想自己的竞争对手在行情好的时候少跟自己抢两单生意?

怎么这次哥几个全都拧着来了呢?

听我讲,这可是个大瓜!



2




如果我们仅从原油市场本身产品交易的角度来看问题,现在的中东兄弟以及美国、俄罗斯的一连串操作那绝对是很奇怪的。

但是世界就是这样,没有任何一个事情是能够脱离其他因素独立存在,一切事情都是关联的,不存在绝对的封闭系统。

当你以为是钱的问题时,却发现某些事而跟钱一点关系都没有,他必然还有更高的维度,而沙特这一次就是在钱之外的高纬度地区,照着美国腰子上来了一刀。

咱们都知道,老美以前在中东有两个大兄弟,一个是以色列另一个就是沙特,那会儿的沙美关系那真的是跟高启强的冻鱼似的——邦邦硬。

但是我们都知道,这个世界上不存在无缘无故的爱,那会儿的沙特之所以跟美国好得蜜里调油,本质上那就是销售跟上帝之间的关系。

那会儿美国是真缺油啊!全球最大的工业系统加全世界最大的汽车保有量,每天烧掉的油那都是天文数字,而沙特穷得就剩下油了。

但是后来随着一项跨时代的技术突破,这种刚性的同盟关系被打破了,那就是页岩油提取技术。

美国的北部大平原上,发现了全球第二大的页岩油田,并且跟第一大页岩油储备国俄罗斯和第三大储备国中国不同,他丫的页岩油几乎就是贴着地表长的,而且还是在大平原上!

俄罗斯的页岩油全球第一,但是都堆在西伯利亚地区了,那玩意儿光是给工人发棉袄都得把开采成本干上去一大截。

而中国虽然世界第三,但是存储也主要分布在云贵川地区,那地方不仅道路崎岖崇山峻岭,而且埋得还深。

所以美国的页岩油虽然储量是世界第二,但是产量却是世界第一,而且是开采成本最低的页岩油田。

这不就完犊子了?!

美国瞬间从全球第一大石油进口国,变成了第一大石油生产国,自己最大的客户不仅跟自己同床异梦了,还跑来跟自己打擂台,这谁受得了啊?

沙特:我的爱如潮水,退了……



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这个世界上只有同行之间的仇恨才是赤裸而坚定的。

从美国大规模开采页岩油开始,沙美关系其实就已经开始貌合神离了。

但是好在,最初美国开采页岩油的成本是很高的,大概维持在60~79美元一桶的情况。

而沙特那种满地自流井的地方,原油开采成本往高了去也就是十几美元一桶。

双方并不存在特别尖锐的竞争关系,但是后来页岩油提炼技术获得了巨大突破,60多美元一桶的成本,库库的就让给干到40美元不到了。

这一下就出事儿了,本来美国页岩油也就是作为国内原油储备使用,其余的只在国际油价高企的时候出来跟沙特抢两口肉吃。

看在美国大兵的面子上,沙特也就忍了,但是页岩油成本一旦跌下40,那么在普通油价的情况下,美国也要抢沙特的饭吃了。

于是在前些年沙特采取的就是一个倾销策略,不停地增产把国际油价摁在30美元以下,主打的就是要饿死美国这帮油老。

但是随着美国不断地在全世界散播战争,尤其是中东几个产油国,除了沙特以外几乎全都被美国给嚯嚯了。

再加上俄乌战争一开干,国际油价你不论怎么压都不可能压到30以下了,最后随着美国拔了欧盟的“氧气管”,国际油价就彻底放飞自我了。



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但是,美国千不该万不该,不该把俄罗斯踢出SWIFT系统,这一下给可给自己挖了个天坑出来。

本身美国的想法是挺美的,把毛子踢出局,这样原来欧盟的能源市场就归自己所有了,但是万万没想到用力过猛了!

川建国和拜振华老哥俩疯狂通胀出来的美元,没能流进中国市场吃到肉,反而全憋在自己家里了。

而老毛子一怒之下直接把原油的美元结算给掀了,现在想找毛子买油,要么用卢布要么人民币。

这直接导致所有美元通胀都憋在了油价上,最高的时候油价直接冲到了80多美元一桶。

而随着美元信用的崩塌,中国带头用货币互换协议搞出来的“幽灵式结算”也开始发力,大量本身没有抗险能力的第三世界国家因此躲过了美元收割的刀锋。

这就很为难了!

谁家催债是为了让那个帮穷鬼还钱啊?还不都是奔着拿喜儿抵债去的吗?

但是现在通过货币互换,第三世界国家从中俄沙这几个大户手里换来了美元,然后还给了美国,这就把美国整麻了!

心说:“我找你催债是为了要美元吗??我要这破纸片干嘛?!这就是我自己印的,我要的是你家的矿山啊!”

所以现在出了一个问题,美国这一波基本没怎么收割到有价值的资产,而回流进美国的反而是现在最泛滥的美元。

而原油市场就更加尴尬了,原油价格越贵,美国原油公司虽说赚得越多,但是你卖油收回来的也全都是美元啊!

这等于是在拿美国自己的真金白银,去跟别人换自己印出来的纸片片,这对美国经济来说除了继续推高恶性通胀以外毫无助益。

而中东五国加上老毛子,在这个节点突然继续推高原油价格,时机把握得可以说是相当漂亮!

一切都是通胀,但国家和经济运转靠的永远都不是通货而是物资。

油价干上去了,美国的国家能源采购直接就被逼到了死角。

79美元一桶的高油价,你美国政府到底还采不采购储备能源了呢?

如果继续采购储备能源,那你就要向市场上投放更多的美元,但美国现在最大的问题就是美元太多了。

美联储那边还在自杀式加息想要为控制通胀做最后的努力,你这边就以天价进行能源采购继续向市场投放美元。

这就跟喝一口清热解毒再喝一口驴鞭汤一样,养不养生我不知道,但肯定伤肾!

但是如果你不进行能源采购了,那你拿什么平息物价?没有足够的低价能源投放市场,你就别想控制通胀。

因为粮食和能源是一切价格水平的基础,粮食价格已经被自己玩疯了,现在能源价格也疯了,你还停了能源采购,CPI不要了是吧?!

所以现在就形成了这么一个骑虎难下的死局:只要油价继续在天上,美国通胀往左往右都是崩。

至于说美国政府说服国内能源巨头们主动降油价?

这对美国来说,可比换个总统难多了。


THE END
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