The mainline status of artificial intelligence TMT cannot be taken away by China Special Estimation, nor can the Chinese prefix be taken away, nor can China Special Evaluation be taken away.人工智能TMT的主线地位，中特估抢不走，中字头抢不走，中特估也抢不走

 The mainline status of artificial intelligence TMT cannot be taken away by China Special Estimation, nor can the Chinese prefix be taken away, nor can China Special Evaluation be taken away.

One month later, I still insist on this point of view. The core position of big technology artificial intelligence TMT cannot be taken away by new energy, the Belt and Road Initiative, and China Special Evaluation. I think the core contradiction in the current market is that a wave of funds want to pull the index (first pull the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and then pull the GEM after encountering obstacles), and compete with each other with the funds that want to be in the TMT sector.

In March and April, when the chip tried to get stuck in AI as the main line, the chip sector peaked. Recently, when China Special Evaluation tried to block AI as the main line, China Special Evaluation reached its peak. I only describe objective facts. This board is pulling and sucking blood from each other to the extreme, playing to the extreme.

It was another day when the demons danced wildly, and the funds were crazily involved. On the one hand, AI and new energy are fighting each other. First, AI sucks new energy, and then new energy quickly counterattacks. It seems that AI is about to be killed! At the critical moment, the daily limit trend of AI+media, AI+games, AI+film, etc. has continued to work on new energy.

On the other hand, China Special Evaluation and consumer drugs were also competing against each other, and the battle was extremely tragic; as a result, China Special Evaluation continued, and pharmaceutical stocks led by CXO recovered. In short, the current market is confusing, the China Special Estimation is overwhelmed, the internal AI is fiercely divided, whether the new energy rebounds or reverses...! The funds are also too speculative, and if one side pulls the other side, it will be smashed. This market will have to chase down and kill up, and once the pattern is formed, it is easy to die!

In a word, making money depends on the trend. If you jump around like stepping on a tightrope every day, you should take it easy. When trading in stocks, you have to be a scumbag. When she is full of flair, then dance with her heart; when she is a jerk, you have to face it calmly; It's time to pull away.

In the track stocks, AI and new energy are fighting each other, and the battle is extremely tragic. First, the AI sucked new energy, and then the new energy quickly organized a counterattack. Seeing that AI was about to be killed, the new energy seemed to be taking off. At the critical moment, AI counterattacked again and continued to kill the new energy again.

To be honest, it is still unclear whether the new energy is a rebound or a reversal. A lot of funds are made as a rebound, and the speculation is too high. If there is a slight rise in other sectors, the funds will run away immediately. It's easy to bring.

Among the value stocks, China Special Evaluation and Consumer Medicine are also fighting fiercely. Originally, China Special Estimation has always been outstanding and aggressive, but today CXO led the pharmaceutical stocks to launch a round of offensive. Both sides come and go. At present, it seems that pharmaceutical stocks have a higher chance of winning. Watch the game continue to fight in the afternoon.

At present, it seems that the market has slowly recovered its diversity and vitality. In the past, China Special Evaluation and AI basically took turns to rise, and other sectors unilaterally knelt down and begged for mercy, acting as various blood bags.

It is expected to open slightly lower first, then directly pull up and fluctuate upwards, and then some short-term profit-making funds continue to sell chips, causing the market to fluctuate slightly and fall back, and then pull up again and fluctuate upwards. The middle Yang line of the lower shadow line. The market has been oversold in the short term, and it will start a big rebound tomorrow! ! !

When things get better, the market will be more balanced in the future, but it is still cruel that two or three thousand stocks fall every day, because this is the registration system.

Although it is a pity, after 24 consecutive trillion trading days are over, is it a crisis or an opportunity? How will the market style change?

Generally speaking, breaking trillions is not a bad thing at this stage, as the saying goes, nothing can be built without breaking. Instead, it gave us a good opportunity to rearrange the layout to eliminate the weak and retain the strong. Which sectors will stabilize before the index is the direction of the main attack of funds. What we have to do now is to control the position, patiently collect cheap chips, and embrace the next main line.

The essence of investment is to look for certain opportunities in the uncertainty of the future! And the way to improve investment certainty is to improve your cognitive ability! Once because of fear of the uncertainty of the future! Just try to isolate everything and thus become ignorant and numb!

The investment cognition ability is not good, so the cognition of things is not complete! Without knowing the real status quo, they published extremely superficial, ridiculous, out-of-the-way wrong and even extreme investment decisions! Mislead others and lose yourself! Most people stay in their comfort zone, understand everything, evaluate everything, and define everything in their own wrong or even old ways! Responsibility for everything! This is why most people are ordinary people!

Therefore, when investing, you must break the walls of your cognition and thinking! This is the process of our cultivation! Investing should practice internal strength like an ascetic monk! After ten years of sharpening a sword, I have never tried the frost blade!

It is a big bear market to carry new energy, and it is a big bull market to hold on to artificial intelligence! Look at the broader market today is a bear market! But my positions are clearly bullish! My two votes are Zhoujin’s Netspeed Technology, Zhongshi Technology’s Zhangchao 10%, and others are all around 5%! So my investment philosophy and cognition is not to hide from the market decline!

Your main energy should be to choose strong stocks, strong stocks that can withstand the decline of the market and pull the daily limit! Instead of studying the market up and down a few points every day! It is not meaningful! After the registration system! There are more and more individual stocks, and the market is becoming more and more divided! Too much energy to study the market is putting the cart before the horse!

At the end of April, I am bearish on the market and here comes an opportunity. Don’t be afraid of the so-called points, the downturn will kill you! Now this continuous sharp decline! It will inevitably bring about a quick rebound! The trading volume has exceeded one trillion for more than ten consecutive days! It means that it is only laundering retail accounts, and the big funds have not escaped!

Peter Lynch: 90% of the time in stock investment is spent in patience and waiting [cover your face] less than 10% of the real happy time. Many people want to avoid the 90% shock or consolidation and share the 10% rise time, but when you have this idea in your heart, you often lose 100% [Strong]

Although not price investment strategy! But the strategy of strong stocks also needs to wait patiently. The reason is the same! The nature of the stock will not change! because human nature never changes

My strategy is strong in the strong! It is to choose strong stocks in strong sectors! More welcome to pay attention to me:! I can only post one article, mainly analyzing the market and sectors! There will be an easter egg analysis of strong stocks! I:! Can post multiple times! Analysis of strong stocks mainly!

The market is too extreme! New energy is a bear market, and a bull market that embraces artificial intelligence [cover your face] My previous article is optimistic about the game, film and television media sector, if you don’t believe me, you can read the previous article! I never act secondhand! The main logic is that AI empowers and increases the efficiency of the film and television game industry + now is the inflection point of underestimation in the film and television entertainment industry!

Game media! Continue to skyrocket! The inflection point of the industry's trough + AI empowerment and efficiency! It will continue to erupt in the future! The extreme A-share structural bull market has been interpreted to the extreme. Institutional meat-cutting liquor new energy! Will increase positions and group artificial intelligence [strong]

Stock investment insists on doing the right thing: profits are earned, not traded!

The key to catching big fish is to wait for the fish to take the bait; the key to making big money in stocks is to cover your hands and wait for the main wave to arrive!

I have never seen people who frequently pull up and put down the fishing rod can catch big fish; I have never seen people who frequently exchange shares and trade in the stock market can make big money!

I also did not do well in many places, and there are many places that should be optimized and improved! We must continue to optimize the strategy, and continue to upgrade the version like chatGPT!

The energy of the market fluctuated sharply in April! The main line of artificial intelligence has also experienced a violent reshuffle! April grades are a thing of the past! Another new challenge in May! The big A is getting more and more shameless, and the heavyweight stocks top the index every day, but they don't fall! mad at you!

April closing summary: I have been holding the artificial intelligence chatGPT since the Spring Festival! Since February, my circle of friends and articles have said that artificial intelligence is the main line in the mid-term every day! But I sold a lot of doubling bull stocks! In April, the main line of artificial intelligence was adjusted and fluctuated! Not easy to do, the retracement is too big! Let's reflect on it and continue to optimize the strategy!

In front of such a big historical theme as artificial intelligence chatGPT! It still seems that the layout is too small, and there are many double tickets dug out at the bottom! I can't hold it! Shenzhou Taiyue Chinese online Tom cat Blue cursor and so on can't hold it when it is called back, it's all sold out

The index does not fall, and individual stocks fall every day! The short-term sentiment has collapsed, the daily limit is pitifully small, and even the board is even rarer! Those who hit the board are all suffocated, and those who chase the rise will give you a big face!

Now I can only play ambush and suck low, clinging to a main line without wavering! The current main line is the artificial intelligence chatGPT, and the others are all miscellaneous! The key is not to hold on when the artificial intelligence pulls back!

Investing in stocks essentially earns money from cognition and patterns! Stock selection depends on cognition! Shareholding depends on the pattern! If the cognitive ability is not good and the structure is too small, it will not be a big deal in the investment market!

In the stock market, when a concept subject as big as chatGPT comes out, it is like a downpour. If your pattern is only the size of a cup, you can earn a cup of money! If your pattern is only the size of a washbasin, then you can earn the money of a basin; if your pattern is a swimming pool, you can earn the money of a swimming pool; if your pattern is the sea! All money will go to you!

If you want to make money in the stock market, first change your leek thinking, and then provide your cognitive ability to study the essential logic that drives stocks up! Only after you know the underlying driving logic can you have a structure to hold shares, and you can hold the bargaining chips in your hand! Without being washed off the car!

If you have experienced more big market trends, your cognition will naturally improve. Knowing how high the bull stocks in the chatGPT trend can rise, your pattern will naturally become bigger and bigger!

Instead of studying this indicator today, and studying that theory tomorrow! This is what leeks love to do, and these are all auxiliary! Not the essence! Investing in stocks must not put the cart before the horse!

So I realized the 12-character stock trading scriptures:

Big theme, hard logic, hold the main line, grasp the leader!

Let’s not talk about it today, pay more attention to my and Weibo:! There will be continuous introductions in the following articles!

The most taboo thing about stock trading is fishing for three days and drying the net for two days. You must persevere, don't follow others' advice, and don't give up halfway. Only those who persist to the end can get rich returns.

Only when there is a gully in your heart will you not be afraid of the deep valley. In a person's life, he depends on noble people, walks on his own, and grows on experience. May you have stubbornness in your bones, faith in your soul, and strength in your heart.

A man who can survive in the stock market for a long time must be a strong and kind person! He can overcome the weakness of human nature, and his personality becomes more stable, he is an indomitable man

My strategy is not to gamble on double the number of demon stocks and get rich overnight! My strategy is to pursue about 10% per month, which can compound interest growth and triple it a year!

But it is difficult to achieve stable compound interest! Continue to work hard to study optimization strategies! Welcome and Weibo interested in my strategy:

There has been an obvious change in today's market. Although the index has performed poorly, there are signs of stabilization. However, the GEM began to rebound and strengthen. Compared with the previous market performance, the current adjustment of the GEM index is a good thing.

Because the individual bones of the two cities are generally rising, and they no longer belong to the few rising carnival markets, which shows that the rhythm of the market has returned to the stage of general recovery of small and medium-sized enterprises and various themes after the establishment of weights. Then, there are certain signs of plate rotation, at least it is no longer an environment in which individual finance rises or a small number of sectors rise, while most of the individual bones fall.

Having said so much, switching from large-cap stocks to small-cap stocks, and switching from high-end stocks to low-end stocks, this is the current strategy and thinking of non-retail funds. At the same time, the current valuation level and relative price/performance ratio of small and medium-cap stocks are also very high. Tell a little story, and the funds will eagerly follow up. At the same time, if you look at the flow of northbound funds, it is obviously a small-cap stock. All kinds of signs are showing that the market has undergone major changes unknowingly. If this change is well grasped, it will be a golden key.

How to Get Started with TMT Industry Investment Research: Fundamentals and Tools

Mainly from the perspective of investment analysis, the TMT industry has too many subdivisions and a large amount of information. Let’s talk about it from a macro perspective first, to help you find the starting point. If you really want to do research, you need to track subdivided industry information. The industry updates and changes quickly. You need to pay attention to industry information, communicate with industry insiders, and invest more time and energy.

1. Basic information of TMT industry

TMT: refers to telecommunications, media and technology (Telecommunication, Media, Technology), which is an industry produced by the integration trend of future telecommunications, media, technology (Internet) and information technology.

It mainly includes the four major industries of electronics, communication, computer and media.

The electronics industry mainly includes semiconductors, electronic equipment, and other components. Communications mainly include telecom operations, communications equipment manufacturing, and value-added services. Computers mainly include software, hardware, and IT services, and media mainly include news publishing, advertising and marketing, the Internet, and film and television.

Such a panorama of the entire industry covers many subdivisions. Almost every subdivision can be analyzed from market space, industry chain, competition pattern, technology cycle, Porter's five forces, valuation, major companies in the industry, development trends, etc. In-depth research on the direction, it will not be expanded here, and it will be further developed when there is a chance in the future.

From a macro perspective, the entire TMT industry chain looks like this:

Upstream industries include communications and electronics, midstream industries include computers, and downstream industries include media.

The importance of the TMT industry is very obvious. Information technology will drive the entire GDP in the future, and almost all industries can be related to TMT. TMT industry projects are also the top priority of early investment funds such as VC and PE.

2. TMT industry research tools and methods

1) Boston Matrix

The Boston matrix uses two indicators of market growth rate and relative market share to classify existing enterprises in the industry into four different types of enterprises, namely, star type, cash cow type, question mark type and thin dog type.

On the one hand, a high share of an enterprise in the industrial market indicates that the enterprise has a strong competitive strength, so the enterprise has a greater ability to obtain profits, and the greater the ability of investors to make profits from investment; on the other hand, a high sales growth rate of an enterprise, It indicates that the product has a good development prospect.

From the perspective of the Boston matrix, the star enterprises belong to the enterprises with high market growth rate and high market share. The products produced by such enterprises are often in the growth stage and have good market opportunities. Increasing investment in the future can enable enterprises to gain rapid development of;

The characteristics of cash cow enterprises are that they have a high market share, but the growth rate is not high. Their products have entered a mature stage, and the profits of the products are large, but because of the low growth rate, they do not need to expand investment. When investing in such enterprises , it is necessary to judge the changes in the future market environment, because once the market environment is not conducive to the development of the industry, the enterprise may become a thin dog and increase investment risks;

For question mark companies and thin dog companies, a selective investment strategy should be adopted. The investment in these companies is generally risky, and investment should be made according to specific conditions.

2) Analysis of Porter's Five Forces Model

We can understand the competitive environment of an industry by analyzing the five competitive forces, namely, the bargaining power of suppliers, the competition among existing firms in the industry, the threat of new entrants, the bargaining power of buyers, and the threat of substitutes.

The bargaining power of suppliers. In the market, suppliers, that is, companies that provide raw materials and services to the industry, can affect the profitability of existing companies in the industry and the competitiveness of products by increasing the price of products or reducing the quality of unit products. In the TMT industry, industries such as the communications industry, private network communications, and Beidou navigation have a greater choice of upstream suppliers, so the bargaining power of suppliers will be limited by competition in the same industry, and the TMT industry has a bargaining advantage.

Competition among incumbents in the industry. Generally speaking, when the entry threshold of the industry is low, there are many companies of similar scale, the demand for products grows slowly, and competitors provide almost the same products, the competition among existing enterprises in the industry will be relatively fierce. For the TMT industry, the transformation of the industry from the military market to the civilian market, the shortening of the product life cycle and the updating of technology will all affect the existing competition pattern and the development of existing enterprises.

Threat of new entrants. Although new entrants can bring new vitality and new resources to the industry, they will also compete with existing companies in terms of product raw materials and market share, reducing the profitability of existing companies. When new entrants enter the industry, there are also barriers to entry, mainly including product differences, government actions and policies, capital needs, and product technology. For the TMT industry, most of them have competition barriers. As long as the existing industry can keep up with the current industry development trend, actively develop new products and develop new technologies, then the threat of substitutes to the industry will not be great.

The bargaining power of buyers. Generally speaking, buyers mainly affect the profitability of existing enterprises by lowering product prices or demanding higher product quality. In the industry, when the number of buyers is small or the buyers have the ability to achieve backward integration, buyers have strong bargaining power. On the whole, buyers in the TMT industry have moderate bargaining power, and buyers pose little threat to the industry.

The threat of substitutes. If the products produced by similar enterprises are substitutes for each other, the competitive strategy of existing enterprises in the entire industry will be affected. On the one hand, the existence of substitutes will limit the profitability of other products and suppress the selling price of commodities; on the other hand , due to the invasion of substitutes, existing companies are forced to improve product quality or lower product prices. In the TMT industry, the speed of product introduction is very fast, and we need to examine the development potential of substitutes and the situation of profit expansion.

3) PEST analysis

Analyze the current situation of the TMT industry through four factors: politics, economy, society and technology.

Political factors (P) refer to political forces and related laws and regulations that have actual and potential influence on the business activities of the industry. Policy changes release institutional dividends, leading to the transformation of government functions, the improvement of administrative efficiency, the reform of the judicial system, and the strengthening of national security. These changes have a great guiding effect on the industrial structure preference of the future capital market.

Economic factors (E) refer to a country's economic system, economic structure, industrial layout, resource status, economic development level, and future economic trends. Specific to the TMT industry, the impact of economic factors is manifested in three aspects. First, macro-based variables are boosting the economy in the short term; second, the basic economic system is accelerating; third, the fiscal and taxation system, urban-rural integration, and relaxation of investment access , Speeding up reforms in the construction of free trade zones, etc. The impact of economic factors on the TMT industry is reflected in the promotion of industrial Internet and service industry consumption upgrades and the acceleration of industrial innovation by affecting economic efficiency, economic structural adjustment and industrial transformation.

Social factors (S) refer to factors such as the national characteristics, cultural traditions, values, religious beliefs, education levels, customs and habits of industry members. Changes in the total population, age structure, income level and consumption structure are the key and core to catalyze the development of the industry. At this stage, the consumer entities, consumer services, and consumption patterns of the TMT industry have undergone tremendous changes. This change has led to information consumption leading the upgrade of information products and information services, leading to product convergence and lower user selection/transfer costs, and the competition for users has shifted to the entrance competition, and then reorganize the industrial ecology.

Technical factors (T) include not only those inventions that cause revolutionary changes, but also the emergence, development trends and application prospects of new technologies, new processes, and new materials related to enterprise production. The borderless information has accelerated the progress of science and technology, and the industrial life cycle has begun to shorten.

4) Product and technology maturity curve analysis

It can be seen mainly from product and technology cycles, industry and company cycles. It can be divided into technology germination period, expectation expansion period, bubble bottom period, steady crawling bright period, and real production peak period.

Pay attention to which stage the demand comes from. The bottom of the bubble is a good time to invest in the market, because the later products need to be mass-produced stably. At the beginning of the second media promotion, it is often easy to overestimate, but there are no products that can be mass-produced. After all, the products for technology enthusiasts in the early stage are all customized and not suitable for mass production.

This requires an in-depth examination of products and technologies in combination with specific subdivided industries and companies. and judgment of trends. The maturity curve of emerging technologies released by Gartner shows the industry life cycle theory very well.

5) Business model dismantling

A successful business model must provide unique value. Often a combination of product and service uniqueness. Business models are hard to imitate.

By establishing their own differences, such as caring for customers, unparalleled implementation capabilities, etc., enterprises can increase the entry threshold of the industry, so as to ensure that the source of profit is not violated.

To put it simply, it is about the question of "what to do, how to do, and how to make money" for enterprises.

When conducting research on companies in the TMT industry, we can mainly use three models, namely, business model, profit model and marketing model, to find out how the target company makes money. The business model refers to what products or services the enterprise provides, how to implement the business process, including whether the business logic is feasible, whether the technology is feasible, whether it conforms to consumer psychology and usage habits, and whether the enterprise's manpower, funds, and resources provide sufficient support, etc.

6) Valuation tools

Relative valuation method: The multiplier method is mainly used, which is relatively simple, such as P/E valuation method, P/B valuation method, EV/EBITDA valuation method, PEG valuation method, price-to-sales ratio valuation method, EV/ Sales revenue valuation method.

Absolute valuation method: It is characterized by the use of discount methods, such as dividend discount model, free cash flow model, etc.

7) DuPont Analysis

The relationship between several major financial ratios is used to comprehensively analyze the financial status of the enterprise. Specifically, it is a classic method used to evaluate the company's profitability and return on shareholders' equity, and to evaluate corporate performance from a financial perspective. The basic idea is to decompose the return on net assets of the enterprise into the product of multiple financial ratios step by step, which is helpful for in-depth analysis and comparison of enterprise operating performance.

3. Key development trends of TMT industry

Technological innovation and development in multiple fields such as new infrastructure, 5G, Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, big data and cloud computing, and several fields are intersected and penetrated each other, including the interactive integration of multiple sub-sectors of TMT , will effectively drive the growth of future demand in many fields in the TMT industry.

New infrastructure: In a broad sense, new infrastructure refers to infrastructure construction that is different from traditional "infrastructure" and mainly focuses on the technological end. Therefore, computer subdivisions including Xinchuang, network security, medical IT, and financial IT also belong to the category of new infrastructure in a general sense.

5G:

5G applications include the three major directions of industrial digitalization, smart life, and digital governance; 5G general applications (that is, applications that may be applied to various 5G scenarios in various industries in the future) include 4K/8K ultra-high-definition video, VR/AR, drones/ Vehicles/ships and robots are four major categories; 5G is applied to industries, medical care, education, security and other fields, and will also produce X-type innovative industry applications.

From the perspective of the 5G industry chain, 5G construction will drive the development of multiple sub-sectors of TMT.

The first to benefit is the upstream 5G equipment vendors, including network master equipment vendors, base station equipment and optical communication equipment, etc., mainly involving the communication industry and the electronics industry;

Midstream includes communication, electronics and computer fields such as system integration, network optimization, operators, mobile terminals and terminal radio frequency;

The market for 5G downstream application scenarios is vast, and applications in emerging fields such as Internet of Vehicles, AR/VR, and Internet of Things will bring broad market space.

Internet of Things:

The Internet is the core and foundation, aiming to realize the interconnection between things at any time and place, perform ubiquitous computing, and become a ubiquitous network.

The 5G era of the Internet of Things will achieve end-to-end latency on the order of milliseconds and a massive number of connections, infinitely shortening the distance between people and people, people and things, and things and things.

artificial intelligence:

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the use of machine learning and data analysis methods to give machines the ability to simulate, extend and expand human-like intelligence. It is essentially a simulation of human thinking processes. According to the relationship between the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, artificial intelligence can be divided into basic support layer, intermediate technology layer and downstream application layer.

Cloud Computing and Big Data:

A business that obtains the required fast provisioning and releasing resources (such as network, server, storage, application, etc.) from the shared pool of configurable computing resources anytime and anywhere to minimize the workload of resource management and service provider interaction model. According to the deployment mode, it is mainly divided into public cloud, private cloud and hybrid cloud.

It has been 10 years since cloud computing has been developed from product application to development, but the overall scale of China is still relatively small, and there is a gap of 3-5 years compared with developed countries. With the business model and industrial chain of global cloud computing manufacturers tending to be stable, China The cloud computing market is growing at a high rate.

人工智能TMT的主线地位，中特估抢不走，中字头抢不走，中特估也抢不走

人工智能TMT的主线地位，中特估抢不走，中字头抢不走，中特估也抢不走。

一个月后我依旧坚持这个观点，大科技人工智能TMT的核心地位，新能源抢不走，一带一路抢不走，中特估也抢不走。我觉得目前市场的核心矛盾在于，一波资金想拉指数（先拉上证，遇阻后拉创业板），跟想做TMT板块的资金互相PK。

三四月份时候芯片试图卡位AI做主线的时候，芯片板块见顶。最近中特估试图卡位AI做主线的时候，中特估见顶。我只描述客观事实。这盘面在极致的拉扯和互相吸血，博弈到极致。

又是群魔乱舞的一天，资金疯狂的内卷。一边是AI和新能源互相厮杀，先是AI吸血新能源，随后新能源迅速反击，眼看AI要被干下去了！关键时刻，AI+传媒、AI+游戏、AI+影视等涨停潮，又把新能源干下去了。

另一边，中特估和消费医药也在PK，战况极其惨烈；结果中特估下去了，CXO为首的医药股有所回暖。总之，现在市场让人看不清，中特估大热倒灶，AI内部惨烈分化，新能源到底反弹还是反转...！资金也是投机性偏多，这边拉那边就砸，这行情就得追跌杀涨，一格局就容易完蛋！

一句话，赚钱靠的是趋势，如果每天像踩钢丝一样跳来跳去，那就要悠着点了。炒股就要做渣男，当她风情万种时，那就尽情共舞；当她是磨人精时，就得要淡定面对；当她无理取闹，除非你想长期抱紧她，否则就是要抽身离去的时候了。

赛道股里边，AI和新能源互相厮杀，战况极其惨烈。先是AI吸血新能源，随后新能源迅速组织反攻，眼看AI就要被干下去了，新能源似乎要起飞了，关键时刻，AI又逆袭了，再度把新能源干下去了。

说实话，目前还是看不出新能源是反弹还是反转，很多资金都是当反弹来做的，投机性偏多，稍有其他板块起来，资金立马就跑，新能源人心不齐，队伍不好带了。

价值股里边，中特估和消费医药也是战况激烈。原本中特估一直独秀，气势逼人，但今天CXO带领医药股发起一轮攻势，双方你来我往，目前看来医药股胜算更高一点，中特估冲高被看下来了，且看下午继续博弈厮杀。

目前看来，市场慢慢恢复了多样性，活力好很多了。之前基本是中特估和AI轮流上涨，其他板块单方面跪地求饶，充当各种血包。

预计会先小幅低开，然后直接拉升震荡上行，接着部分短线获利资金持续卖出筹码导致大盘小幅震荡回落，后面又拉升再次震荡上行，临近尾盘回落少许，最后收出一根有下影线的中阳线。大盘短期已超跌，明天将开启大反弹！！！

情况好起来，后续市场会更加均衡，但依旧是残酷的每天两三千只股票下跌，因为这就是注册制。

虽然很可惜，但连续24个万亿交易日结束了，之后是危还是机？市场风格又会发生何种变化？

总体来说，现阶段破万亿不是坏事，俗话说不破不立。接下来反而给到了我们重新布局去弱留强的好机会。哪些板块会先于指数企稳，就是资金主攻的方向。现在要做的就是控制好仓位，耐心收集便宜筹码，拥抱接下来的主线。

投资的本质就是在在未来的不确定性寻找确定性机会！而提高投资确定性的方法就是提升自己的认知能力！一旦因为恐惧未来的不确定性！就尝试去隔离一切的时候，因此就会变得无知和麻木！

投资认知能力不行，所以对事情的认知不全！没有了解到真正的现状，就发表了极其肤浅荒谬，偏僻错误甚至极端的投资决策！误导了他人还迷失了自己！大部分人都是待在自己的舒适圈里面，用自己错误的甚至陈旧的方式了解一切，评价一切，定义一切！职责一切！这是大部分人都是普通人的原因！

所以做投资一定要打破自己认知的墙，思维里的墙！就是我们修炼的过程！投资要像一个苦行僧一样修炼内功！十年磨一剑，霜刃未曾试！

死扛新能源的是大熊市，抱紧人工智能的是大牛市！看大盘今天是熊市！但我的持仓明明都是牛市啊！我的两个票 上周进的网速科技 中石科技张超10% 别的也都在5%左右！所以我的投资理念和认知就是不要去躲大盘下跌！

你的主要精力应该是选强势股，能抗住大盘下跌能拉涨停板的强势股！而不是每天研究大盘涨跌几个点！意义不大！注册制后！个股越来越多，市场越来越分化！太多精力去研究大盘就是本末倒置！

四月底大盘我看跌出机会来了，所谓几点不要怕，阴跌害死人！现在这种连续大幅下跌！必然也会带来快速反弹！连续十多天成交量在万亿以上！说明只是在洗散户，大资金没跑！

彼得林奇：股票投资90%时间都是在忍耐和等待中度过[捂脸]真正快乐时光不到10%。很多人想躲过这90%震荡或者盘整，分享10%上涨时间，但当你心生这个念头时候，你损失的往往是100%[强]

虽然不价投策略！但强势股策略也要忍耐等待 道理是一样的！股票的本质不会变！因为人性不会变

我的策略是强中强！就是选强势板块的强势股！更多的欢迎关注我的：！只能发一篇，分析大盘和板块为主！会有强势股彩蛋分析！我：！可以发多次！分析强势股为主！

行情太极端！死磕新能源是熊市，拥抱人工智能的牛市[捂脸]我之前的文章看好游戏 影视 传媒板块，不信的话你翻翻前面文章去！我从不马后炮！主要的逻辑是AI为影视游戏行业赋能增效+现在是影视娱乐行业低估拐点！

游戏传媒！继续暴涨！行业低谷拐点+AI赋能增效！后面还会继续爆发！极端的A股结构性牛市，演绎到极致了。机构割肉白酒新能源！将加仓抱团人工智能[强]

股票投资坚持做对的事：利润是捂出来的，而不是交易出来的！

钓大鱼的关键是等鱼上钩；股票赚大钱的关键是捂住等主升浪到来！

从未看到过把鱼竿频繁拉起、放下的人能钓到大鱼；也从未看到过在股市里频繁换股、交易的人能赚到大钱！

我也是好多地方没做到好 还应该优化改进的地方很多！还要继续优化策略的，像chatGPT一样不断升级版本！

4月份大盘精力大幅震荡！人工智能主线也经历猛烈洗盘！4月份成绩已经成为过去式了！5月份又是新的挑战！大A越来越不要脸，每天权重股顶指数，就是不跌啊！气死你！

四月收盘总结：从春节后我就抱着人工智能chatGPT！2月开始我朋友圈和文章也每天都再说人工智能是中期主线了！但我卖飞了好多翻倍牛股！四月份人工智能主线回调震荡！不好做，回撤太大！还是反思一下，继续优化策略吧！

人工智能chatGPT这样大的历史题材面前！还是显得格局太小，底部挖掘出好多好多翻倍票！都拿不住！神州泰岳 中文在线 汤姆猫 蓝色光标等等回调的时候拿不住，都卖飞了[破涕为笑]

指数不跌，个股每天跌的稀里哗啦的！短线情绪已经崩溃了，涨停板少的可怜，连板更稀有！打板的通通闷杀，追涨的给你大面！

现在只能玩埋伏低吸了，抱死一条主线不动摇！现在的主线就是人工智能chatGPT，其他的都是杂毛！关键是在人工智能回调的时候不能抱的住！

投资股票本质上赚的是认知和格局的钱！选股靠认知！持股靠格局！认知能力不行，格局太小，在投资市场中成不了大事！

股市里chatGPT这样大的概念题材出来就好比下了一场倾盆大雨，你的格局如果只有一个杯子的大小那就能赚一个杯子的钱！你的格局如果只有脸盆大小，那你就能赚一脸盆的钱，如果的格局是个游泳池，你就能赚一个游泳池的钱，如果你的格局是大海！所有的钱都会流向你！

如果你想在股市里赚钱先改变韭菜思维，然后提供认知能力去研究驱动股票上涨的本质逻辑！知道知道了底层驱动逻辑之后才能有格局持股，才能拿的住手里筹码！而不被洗下车！

经历的大行情多了，认知自然而然就会提升，知道了在chatGPT风口的牛股能涨多高，你的格局自然会越来越大！

而不是今天又研究这个指标，明天又研究那个理论！这是都是韭菜爱干的事，这些都是辅助！不是本质！投资股票千万不能本末倒置！

所以我悟道的12字炒股真经：

大题材 硬逻辑 抱主线 抓龙头！

今天先不展开讲了，多多关注我的和微博：！后面文章会有持续的介绍！

炒股，最忌讳的就是三天打鱼 两天晒网，要有持之以恒的毅力，不人云亦云，不半途而废，只有坚持到底的人，才能获得丰厚的回报。

心有沟壑，才会无惧深谷。人这一辈子，引路靠贵人，走路靠自己，成长靠经历。愿你骨子里有倔强，灵魂上有信仰，内心中有坚强。

能在股市中长期生存下来的男人，一定内心强大且善良的人！能克服人性弱点，性格变得越发沉稳，是顶天立地的男人

我的策略不是赌个连板翻倍妖股一夜暴富！我策略追求的是每月10%左右，能复利增长 一年翻3翻！

但要做到稳定复利难啊！还要继续努力研究优化策略！对我策略感兴趣的欢迎和微博：

今天的市场出现了一个明显的变化，虽然指数表现不佳，但是已有企稳的信号。而创业板开始反弹走强，相较于前期的市场表现，当下创业板上涨指数调整的走势，反而是一件好事情。

因为，两市的个骨都在普涨，不再属于少数上涨的狂欢行情，说明市场的节奏已经回归到权重搭台后，中小创，各类题材普遍回升的阶段。那么，板块有了一定的轮动迹象，起码不再是单独的金融上涨或少部分板块上涨，而大部分个骨下跌的环境。

说了这么多，大盘股切换到小盘股，高位股切换到低位股，这就是目前非散户资金的策略与思维。同时中小盘股目前的估值水平和价格相对性价比也非常之高。稍微讲点故事，资金就会迫不及待地跟进，同时你看北向资金的流向，明显也是小盘股。种种迹象都在显示，市场已经在不知不觉中发生着重大的变化，这个变化把握好了，就是一把金钥匙。

如何入手TMT行业投资研究：基本面和工具

主要从投资分析角度，TMT行业细分太多，信息量大。这里先从宏观地讲讲，帮助大家找到入门抓手，如果真要研究，细分行业信息要跟踪，行业更新变化快，需要关注行业信息，和行业内人交流，投入更多时间和精力。

一、TMT行业基本信息

TMT:指电信、媒体和科技(Telecommunication,Media,Technology),是未来电信、媒体、科技(互 联网)、信息技术的融合趋势所产生的产业。

主要包括电子、通信、计算机、传媒四大行业。

电子行业主要有半导体，电子设备，其他元器件。通信主要有电信运营，通信设备制造，增值服务。计算机主要有软件，硬件，IT服务，传媒主要有新闻出版，广告营销，互联网，影视。

整个行业全景图这样，涵盖的细分领域很多，几乎每个细分领域都能从市场空间，产业链，竞争格局，技术周期，波特五力，估值，行业主要公司情况，发展趋势等方向深入研究，这里不展开，以后有机会再深入展开吧。

从宏观来看，整个TMT行业产业链是这样的：

上游行业有通信，电子，中游行业是计算机，下游行业是传媒等。

TMT行业重要性就十分明显了，信息技术未来拉动整个GDP,几乎所有行业都能和TMT扯上关系。TMT行业项目也是VC和PE等早期投资基金的重中之重。

二、TMT行业研究工具和方法

1）波士顿矩阵

波士顿矩阵运用市场增长率和相对市场份额两个指标，将产业中的现有企业区分为四种不同类型的企业，即明星类、现金牛类、问号类以及瘦狗类。

一方面，企业在产业市场中的占有率高，说明企业的竞争实力强，那么企业获取利润的能力大，投资者投资获利的能力也越大；另一方面，企业的销售增长率高，预示着产品有好的发展前景。

从波士顿矩阵来看，明星类企业属于高市场增长率以及高市场份额的企业，这类企业所生产的产品往往处于成长期，有很好的市场机会，在未来加大投资能够使企业获得迅速的发展；

现金牛类企业的特点是拥有高的市场占有率，但是增长率不高，其产品已经进入成熟期，产品的利润大，但是因为增长率低，所以不需要扩大投资，在投资这类企业时，需要判断未来市场环境的变化，因为一旦市场环境不利于产业的发展，企业可能会变为瘦狗类，加大投资风险；

对于问号类企业和瘦狗类企业，要采用选择性投资战略，对这些企业的投资一般风险较大，要视具体情况进行投资。

2）波特五力模型分析

分析供应者讨价还价的能力、行业间现有企业的竞争、新进入者的威胁、购买者讨价还价的能力以及替代品的威胁这五种竞争力量，我们可以了解行业的竞争环境。

供应者讨价还价的能力。在市场中，供应者，即那些向行业提供原料产品及服务的企业，可以通过提高产品的价格或者降低单位产品的质量，影响行业中现有企业的盈利能力以及产品的竞争力。在TMT行业中，像通信行业、专网通信以及北斗导航等行业对上游供应商的选择余地较大，因此供应商的议价能力会受到同业竞争的限制，TMT行业拥有议价优势。

行业间现有企业的竞争。一般来说，当行业进入门槛低、规模相近企业多、产品需求增长缓慢、竞争者提供产品几乎相同时，行业中现有企业间的竞争就会相对激烈。对TMT行业来说，产业从军用市场向民用市场的转变、产品生命周期的缩短以及技术的更新都会影响现有的竞争格局，以及现有企业的发展。

新进入者的威胁。新进入者虽然能够给行业带来新活力和新资源，但是也会与现有企业产生产品原料以及市场份额方面的竞争，降低现有企业盈利能力。而新进入者在进入行业时，也存在进入障碍，主要有产品差异、政府行为与政策、资本需要以及产品技术等。对TMT行业来说，多数有竞争壁垒，只要现有产业能够紧跟当前行业的发展趋势，积极开发新产品，研发新的技术，那么替代品对行业的威胁就不会很大。

购买者讨价还价的能力。一般来说，购买者主要通过压低产品价格或者要求提高产品质量，影响现有企业的盈利能力。在行业中，当购买者数量不多或者购买者有能力实现后向一体化时，购买者就具有较强的讨价还价的能力。综合来看，TMT行业的购买者议价能力适中，购买者对行业的威胁不大。

替代品的威胁。相似企业生产的产品如果互为替代品，那么整个行业中现有企业的竞争战略都会受到影响，一方面，替代品的存在会限制其他产品的获利能力，压制商品的售价；另一方面，由于替代品的侵入，现有企业被迫提高产品质量或者降低产品售价。在TMT行业中，产品推陈出新的速度很快,我们需要考察替代品的发展潜能以及盈利扩张情况。

3 )PEST分析

通过政治、经济、社会、技术四个因素，来分析TMT行业目前面临的状况。

政治因素（P）是指对行业的经营活动具有实际与潜在影响的政治力量和有关的法律、法规。政策变化释放制度红利，促成政府职能转变、行政效率提高、司法体制改革、国家大安全的加强等。这些变化对未来资本市场产业结构偏好有着极大的指导作用。

经济因素（E）是指一个国家的经济制度、经济结构、产业布局、资源状况、经济发展水平以及未来的经济走势等。具体到TMT行业，经济因素的影响表现在三个方面，一是基于宏观的变量在短期提振经济；二是基本的经济制度在加速完善；三是财税体制、城乡一体化、放宽投资准入、自贸区建设加快改革等。经济因素对TMT行业的影响体现在通过影响经济效率、经济结构调整和产业转型，促进工业互联网、服务业消费升级，加速产业创新。

社会因素（S）是指行业成员的民族特征、文化传统、价值观念、宗教信仰、教育水平、风俗习惯等因素。人口总量、年龄结构、收入水平与消费结构变化，是催化产业发展的关键和核心。现阶段TMT行业的消费主体、消费业务、消费方式等发生了巨大变化，这种变化使得信息消费引领信息产品和信息服务升级，导致产品趋同和用户选择/转移成本降低，对用户的争夺转向入口的竞争，进而重组产业生态。

技术因素（T）不仅包括那些引起革命性变化的发明，还包括与企业生产有关的新技术、新工艺、新材料的出现、发展趋势以及应用前景。信息的无边界化加速了科学技术的进步，产业生命周期开始缩短。

4) 产品和技术成熟度曲线分析

主要可以从产品和技术周期，行业和公司周期来看。可以分为技术萌芽期，期望膨胀期，泡沫化谷底期，稳步爬行光明期，实质生产高峰期。

关注需求量出于哪个阶段，泡沫化谷底期是投资较好的入场时机，因为后期产品要稳定量产。二媒体宣传开始时候，往往容易估值过高，但是还没有出现能起来量的产品，毕竟前期给技术发烧友的产品都是定制的，不适合量产。

这个就要结合具体细分行业和公司，深入考察产品和技术。以及对趋势判断。高德纳公司发布的新兴技术成熟度曲线很好地展示了产业生命周期理论。

5）商业模式拆解

成功的商业模式要能提供独特价值。往往是产品和服务独特性的组合。 商业模式是难以模仿的。

企业通过确立自己的与众 不同,如对客户的悉心照顾、无与伦比的实施能力等,来提高行业的进入门槛,从而保证利润来源不受侵犯。

简单来说，就是关于企业“做什么、如何做、怎样赚钱”的问题。

TMT行业中的公司进行研究时，我们可以主要运用三种模式，即业务模式、盈利模式和营销模式，来弄清目标企业是如何赚钱的。业务模式是企业提供什么产品或服务，业务流程如何实现，包括业务逻辑是否可行，技术是否可行，是否符合消费者心理和使用习惯，以及企业的人力、资金、资源是否给予足够的支持等。

6）估值工具

相对估值法：主要采用乘数方法,较为简便, 如P/E估值法、P/B估值法、EV/EBITDA 估值法、PEG估值法、市销率估值法、 EV/销售收入估值法。

绝对估值法：特点是主要采用折现方法,如股利贴现模型、自由现金流模型等。

7）杜邦分析法

利用几种主要的财务比率之间的关系来综合地分析企业的财务状况。 具体来说，它是一种用来评价公司盈利能力和股东权益回报水平，从财务角度评价企业绩效的一种经典方法。 其基本思想是将企业净资产收益率逐级分解为多项财务比率乘积，这样有助于深入分析比较企业经营业绩。

三、TMT行业关键发展趋势

新基建、5G、物联网、人工智能及大数据与云计算等多个领域的科技创新与发展,并且几个领域又是 相互交集、互相渗透的,都包含TMT多个细分行业的交互融合,将有效带动TMT行业内多个领域未来需求的增长。

新基建：从广义来看,新基建是指与传统的“基建”相区别,主要发力于科技端的基础设施建设。因此,包括信创、网络安全、医疗 IT、 金融 IT 等计算机细分板块,也均属于泛义的新基建范畴。

5G:

5G应用包括产业数字化、智慧化生活、数字化治理三大方向;5G通用应用(即未来可能应用于各行业各 种5G场景的应用)包括4K/8K超高清视频、VR/AR、无人机/车/船、机器人四大类;5G应用到工业、医疗、教育、安防等 领域,还将产生X类创新型行业应用 。

从5G产业链上看,5G建设将带动TMT多个细分行业领域的发展。

首先受益的是上游 5G设备商,包括网络主设备商、基站设备和光通信设备等,主要涉及通信行业和电子行业;

中游包括系统集成、网络优化、运营商、移动终端和终端射频等通信、电子、计算机领域;

5G下游应用场景市场广阔,车联网、AR/VR、物联网等新兴领域应用将带来广阔的市场空间。

物联网：

互联网为核心和基础,旨在实现物与物之间在任何时间、地点的互联,进行无所不在的计算,成为无所不在的网络。

物联网 5G时代将实现毫秒量级的端到端时延和可达海量的连接数,无限拉近人与人、人与物、物与物之间的距离。

人工智能：

人工智能(Artificial Intelligence,AI)是利用机器学习和数据分析方法赋予机器模拟、延申和拓展类人的智能的能人工智能 力,本质上是对人类思维过程的模拟。依据产业链上下游关系,可以将人工智能划分为基础支持层、中间技术层和下游应用层。

云计算与大数据:

随时随地从可配置计算资源共享池中获取所需的快速供应及释放的资源(例如网络、 服务器、存储、应用等),来达到管理资源的工作量和服务商交互的最小化的一种商业模式。按照部署模式主要分为公有云、私有云和混合云。

云计算从产品应用到发展已经10年时间,但中国整体规模还是偏小,相比发达国家差距存在3-5年, 在全球云计算厂商的商业模式和产业链趋于稳定的情况下,中国云计算市场正处于高速增长。