The Great Depression, worse than 1930, is coming!比1930年更加严重的大萧条来了！
The Great Depression, worse than 1930, is coming!
According to US media reports, Europac CEO and chief economist Peter Schiff (Peter Schiff) warned that the United States is about to enter a new period of Great Depression.
He accused the official U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data of misleading the public. The U.S. is about to face a Great Depression worse than the 1930s, with prices soaring and wages stagnant, and prices in the Great Depression in the 1930s also began to fall.
According to a report on the blockchain professional website bitcoin.com on the 17th, Schiff warned that the coming economic crisis will trigger a situation worse than the Great Depression that the United States faced in the 1930s. He believes that the crisis will be triggered by high inflation caused by the government to stimulate the economy by increasing public spending, which will affect the assessment of US public debt.
We are going to have a crisis because we raised the US national debt ceiling, if we keep raising the national debt ceiling instead of solving the real problem: the debt itself. If they decide to stop raising the national debt ceiling, then the national debt ceiling will (instead) be the solution.
He explained that the coming Great Depression will be different from past recessions because of the continued rise in prices and the loss of purchasing power for Americans.
"It could be worse. It's a depression. It's not like the Great Depression in the 1930s, when people at least benefited from falling prices and got some relief. This time around, even those who were still working will suffer because they will lose the value of their salary" (everything goes up but salary doesn't)
Schiff also criticized the way the Fed calculates the consumer price index (CPI) data it uses to confirm inflation, saying its formula is designed to give low numbers. "Essentially you have to double the official figures to get a better idea of what's actually happening in prices," he declared, by which he meant that real inflation should currently be closer to 10%.
Schiff once predicted the financial crisis in 2008, so his opinions are widely valued in the industry.
What should I do if I have no money? Then fine!
Punish, punish hard.
This is the solution that Neihuang County in Henan came up with in the face of financial constraints.
A car has received 58 fines in two years, and it takes more than a month to receive a fine. The reason for the fine is the same, that is, over-limit transportation.
The fine is as high as 275,000, which is also the latest fine record created by Neihuang County, Henan Province.
In the past, many drivers who passed by Neihuang County reported that they frequently received notices of fines, and the content of the fines was overweight.
I was obviously not overweight before departure, but I would be overweight when I weighed in Neihuang County, and then I was fined a lot.
Facing the questions from the drivers, Section Chief Zhang of the Comprehensive Administrative Law Enforcement Brigade of the Neihuang County Transportation Bureau said without hesitation: After three years of the epidemic, there is no money in the finances now. Penalties, and there are tasks for fines.
First of all, I want to praise Chief Zhang for his courage to speak and act. Dare to speak means that he dares to say such things in front of the driver.
Today's officials, big and small, dare not speak like this even if they are not facing the camera. It can be seen that Chief Zhang is indeed not an ordinary person.
In what Zhang Zhang said, it is not difficult for us to see a few pieces of information:
The finances are out of money, is it because the finances of all the counties in the country are out of money? Why does Neihuang County alone have no money? I feel that if we follow this clue, we should find a lot of melons.
Captain Zhang said that this is called law enforcement in place, so does it mean that law enforcement has not been in place before the epidemic.
During the three-year epidemic, most of the time was confined at home. Don't say that the county's finances have run out of money, and even ordinary people's homes don't have much food left.
Even if you take ten thousand steps back, the common people have surplus food at home, so why should you pay your finances? What's the difference between this and a robber?
When you have spare money in your finances, do you benefit the common people?
Such things are not rare.
Just two days ago, a certain place in Shandong charged farmers 100 yuan per mu for straw disposal.
A netizen posted on the Internet that Dongcunjia Village, Tanfang Town, Qingzhou City, Shandong Province charged villagers for straw disposal, and attached a screenshot of the notice.
The content of the screenshot shows: At present, it is very difficult to dispose of straw, which is easy to cause road congestion and fire. In order to solve the problem, the standard of straw disposal fee is now charged, 100 yuan per mu, and the paying households will be issued a straw disposal certificate. 24-hour patrol, a fine of 1,000 yuan for disorderly driving without a license.
how? Is the village's finances also tight?
How much can one mu of wheat earn? Calculated on the basis of 1 yuan per catty of wheat, the average income per mu of land is about 1200 yuan, and some wheat with particularly good quality can only earn about 1500 yuan per mu of land.
He licked his face when he came up, charged 100 yuan for handling, and sent people to patrol, which is nothing more than the robbers who entered the village back then.
According to the village's response, this is done to prevent impacts on roads and the environment, and a sanitation company will be hired to dispose of the straw in a unified manner for the fee charged.
Straw needs to be treated uniformly? So next year, will the corn stalks also be dealt with uniformly? It is important to know that straw is not garbage. Putting it in the ground can be used as fertilizer, fuel, or even packaged to generate electricity. I have also seen on the Internet that straw is used to make high-density boards, and it can generate benefits.
Even if you have to charge a fee, have you asked your superiors for instructions? Have you discussed it with the villagers in the village? Do the villagers in the village have the right to know and the right to vote?
The expenditure of 100 yuan per mu of land, how is this figure calculated? Earn about 1,000 yuan per mu of land, plus the cost of wheat seeding, watering, and spraying, the net profit will only be less than 1,000 yuan, and you have robbed 10% of the benefits with just one sentence.
The pension of many rural elderly is only about 100 yuan a month.
There is also a law enforcement team patrolling 24 hours, and a fine of 1,000 yuan is found for violations.
The fine is an administrative penalty, and it says that the fine will be collected by the village. Who will give your village the right to enforce the law? And according to which provision of our country's constitution is the fine imposed? Whose pocket did the fine end up in? Ask your village to stand up and explain.
There is more than one example of this phenomenon of arbitrary fees and fines.
A few years ago, a truck driver named Jin Deqiang was fined 2,000 yuan because the Beidou GPS was disconnected when he passed the checkpoint.
After experiencing various protests and pleadings to no effect, they finally chose to commit suicide by drinking pesticides. Many people feel sorry for this, thinking that it is not worth doing for 2,000 yuan.
Jin Deqiang wrote in his suicide note: I am not worth the 2,000 yuan, I am speaking for the sake of the truck drivers.
Jin Deqiang used his own life to prove that he was wronged. He used his death to defend the rights and interests of truck drivers, just to say something to them, and to use his death to wake up the leaders to pay attention to this matter.
As the timeline pushes forward, on January 11, 2021, after failing to ask the person in charge of the company for the deducted salary of 5,000 yuan, Liu Jin, the rider of Ele.me, chose to paint his whole body up and down at the door of the delivery station. Self-immolation full of gasoline.
Is Liu Jin not worth the 5,000 yuan? No, he just wants everyone to pay attention to this matter, and he is also sorry for what happened to him.
The phenomenon of random fines is flooding in various fields, and it can be said that the whole of China has suffered from this phenomenon for a long time.
In Yulin, Shaanxi, a peddler at a fruit and vegetable shop bought 7 catties of celery, and the local market supervision department took out 2 catties for screening. After a month, he was told that the vegetables had failed the test and asked the hawker to recall them.
However, the 5 catties of celery had already been sold out, and the receipt could not be found. The local market supervision department imposed a fine of 66,000 yuan on the merchant for reasons such as being unable to recall and failing to truthfully explain the source of the purchase.
Also, during the May Day holiday this year, a brother died suddenly on the side of the road, but when people found him, they found a ticket for illegal parking on the passenger door of his car, which is really ironic.
At a certain highway intersection in Foshan, Guangzhou, 180,000 tickets were issued within one year, with a total fine of more than 120 million yuan.
Two old ladies in Yuncheng, Shanxi, had to secretly burn kangs at home to keep warm because their homes were too cold in winter. They were discovered by the patrol team. 2000 dollars.
There are countless similar things.
The purpose of the fine is to prevent this kind of phenomenon from happening again, not to relieve financial strain.
Too many fines in one place is a sign of local incompetence.
When fines should be considered in light of the actual situation, if civilians and rich people make the same mistakes and are fined the same amount of money, then what is the significance of education?
We are not overwhelmed with sympathy. Some people do have to be punished for making mistakes, but things should not go too far.
The ancients all knew that food salary should not compete with the people for profit, and those who receive the big ones should not take the small ones. If the common people are really cornered in the end, then who will be unlucky in the end?
Are law enforcement officers public servants? Or sir? This matter does not need us to emphasize again and again, water can carry a boat, and it can also overturn it. Remember that you are serving the people, not the RMB.
After so many years of persistent illness, it was time to heal the wound by scraping the bone.
China can use drones to intercept hypersonic missiles: Hong Kong media "South China Morning Post" reported that a Chinese scientific research team adopted a new algorithm to solve the theoretical problem of hypersonic drones intercepting hypersonic missiles. This will make the theory of hypersonic missile interception more perfect, and may even promote new developments in flight control computers, guidance systems, etc.!
The "South China Morning Post" stated in the report that the theory of using hypersonic drones to intercept hypersonic missiles was proposed by the research team of the Shanghai Institute of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering. The biggest problem in this theory is the problem of interception algorithm. The research team used a new algorithm to overcome this problem in one fell swoop.
This hypersonic drone (powered by an air-breathing engine) developed by a team of Shanghai scientists can fly at five times the speed of sound for long distances, and within 6.8 kilometers of flying to the threat of foreign missiles, it can release the carried " Kinetic Energy Weapons, Destroy Foreign Missile Threats! Such a drone can also be repeatedly bombed and used multiple times!
The United States has not even mastered hypersonic missiles. We have already begun to successfully test and intercept hypersonic missiles, which is a long way ahead.
There have been new changes in the investment of multinational companies in Shanghai: In addition to new factories and production lines, more R&D centers have accelerated to "fall in Shanghai"
The screenshots held by RIA Novosti show that an underground organization called the "Ukrainian Salvation Army" has invaded some government websites in Ukraine, issued a call to the Ukrainian people to fight the current authorities, and claimed that it has attacked Zelian on Bank Street in Kiev. Sky's office launched an attack.
According to reports, the existence of the "Ukrainian Salvation Army" was not known before.
"The Ukrainian Salvation Army responsibly declares that the attack on Bank Street was only a demonstration of our purpose and resistance. We represent the Ukrainian people," a statement posted on the hacked page of the Ukrainian state government's website reportedly said. , we decide when and where to bring Zelensky, his cabal and the oligarchs who are robbing our country to trial." The authors of the statement did not say when and what kind of attack on Bank Street was carried out. At present, the relevant statement has been deleted from the Ukrainian website, but the screenshots have been retained by some people.
According to reports, in addition to the Odessa State Government website, the above statement was also posted on the websites of the Izmail District Council and the Civil Defense Department of the state.
According to reports, the above-mentioned statement said: "Our motherland is on the verge of extinction! Zelensky, who came to power under the slogan of restoring peace and normalizing relations with Russia, provoked the largest conflict in Europe since World War II... We, the Ukrainian Salvation Army, Calling on all of you, brothers and sisters, to unite now and eradicate this malignant tumor called Zelensky that is killing our homeland."
The statement stated that there are many supporters of the "Ukrainian Salvation Army" and they have already acted.
According to the report, the organization said: "Zelensky and his entourage only follow the instructions of the United States, unconditionally implement all orders from Europe, and lead Ukraine to the hell of the 'civilized world'. As a result, Ukraine for the Anglo-Saxons and the Western collective The interests of the Slavs have been reduced to a 'civilized' battlefield for the Slavs, and hundreds of thousands of young Ukrainians are dying every day. At this very moment, a fratricidal war is being waged in the heart of Europe."
"Our goal is to save Ukraine, cleanse Bandera and the lackeys of the West, and restore fraternal relations with the Russian people," the statement said.
"Ukrainian Salvation Army" said: "We, Ukrainians, must regain power in our country. We must establish a new transparent, reliable, and truly belong to the people, not at the mercy of oligarchs and corrupt officials. Ukraine must be truly free! Only Free from the influence of the US and the West, corrupt officials and oligarchs, so we can restore peace and revive the economy in our land."
In 1930, unemployed American middle-aged men (pictures from the Internet)
In 1918, World War I ended. Britain, the former world hegemon, was battered and decimated in the war. The world financial center is transferred from London to New York. The US dollar gradually replaced the hegemony of the British pound. The United States has become the world's largest economic power, and the United States has entered a 10-year golden period of rapid development in history.
Until 1929, the era of the Great Depression in the United States came, and the economic crisis swept the world, which directly changed the world pattern.
Crazy consumerism prevails:
In the 1920s, the United States, which had won a great victory, began to usher in its own golden age, and industry and commerce entered a stage of unprecedented prosperity:
In the 1920s, the U.S. economy grew by 42%. The industrial output value of the United States accounts for 50% of the world;
American women began to gain the right to vote;
The rapid popularization of electricity has greatly improved industrial production and quality of life;
The unemployment rate has remained low for a long time, 2-3%, and has never exceeded 4%;
Chaplin's films are popular all over the world, entertaining tens of millions of viewers;
Charles Lindbergh flew from New York to Paris, driving a single-engine plane, to achieve the first human across the Atlantic;
Jazz was born, and jazz masters such as Louis Armstrong emerged in large numbers;
From 1926 to 1929, the number of people flying increased from 6,000 to 173,000;
Real estate in prime locations can increase by 300% or more a year;
Between 1923 and 1929, the Dow rose as much as 500%;
In 1926, men and women at the American ball (pictures from the Internet)
"The Great Gatsby" starring Leonardo DiCaprio is set in 1922, the golden age of the United States. A grassroots man, after getting rich, the only pleasure is "burning money". Even today, nearly a hundred years later, the scene is still luxurious and incredible: gorgeous costumes, expensive jewelry, luxurious villas, noisy banquets, shining sports cars, crazy enjoyment, luxury, and feasting. It looks like a symphony at the pinnacle of carnival in the prosperous age. This is not an exaggeration of art, but a mirror image of reality at the time.
The 1920s was a turning point for modern business. So far in business and life, various modern business forms, lifestyles, ideas and concepts such as consumerism, feminism, modern advertising and communication all come from this era. Including open high-end department stores, mail-order services, chain stores, advertising companies that promote consumption first, thick fashion magazines with a lot of advertisements, etc., were all born in this era. Well-known companies such as Sears, Avon, A&P, and Macy's have sprung up and developed rapidly.
Beginning in the 1910s, American advertisers and manufacturers discovered that women were the core of household consumption, and they were responsible for purchasing food, clothing, electrical appliances and other daily necessities for the whole family. So we began to focus on promoting women, and some people put forward the viewpoint that "men pay attention to organization and efficiency, and women pay attention to vision and consumption". In response to these phenomena, merchants have racked their brains to attract women at all stages to consume. Women's self-awareness began to awaken, and women began to serve as middle managers in companies and institutions. Women find that they can not only take care of the family, but also pursue self-enjoyment and value. So attending dinner parties, restaurant appointments, beauty salons, and shopping in shopping malls have become popular activities for women.
A car manufacturer began to produce cars in multiple colors. In the advertisement, it told women that the car they drove every day should match the dress. Women's smoking is also encouraged by advertisers, which is seen as an important symbol of women's rights. There are even advertisements claiming that "smoking can lose weight and help keep a slim figure."
Consumer awareness is on the rise. Whether it is a man or a woman, enjoying yourself in time and enjoying the present has become a life creed, especially for young people.
Feeling full and thinking about lust is the same in any era. When the upper body is full, it starts to think about the lower body. With material development, sex has become the most enthusiastic thing for young people. In this context, latex condoms were born. The production cost is lower, and the user experience is more comfortable. Men are more comfortable and women are safer. Then, driven by hedonism and consumerism, intimate or public sex activities began to explode.
American girls in the 1920s (pictures from the Internet)
At that time, young men and women in New York and other metropolises liked to hold various parties, one of which was the "touching party" at the ball, where the men and women who participated in the party touched each other, and then they couldn't help themselves. The follow-up scenes can be imagined by the judges. The 18th Amendment to the Constitution at the time declared a nationwide ban on alcohol because drinking raised many moral questions. But people who enjoy themselves will not really obey this law. At parties, it has become a common scene for girls to take off their high heels and fill them with wine for boys to drink. Alcohol consumption in the United States is growing by more than 50% annually. All kinds of luxurious clubs provide all kinds of sensational services.
In 1922, a New York mother complained to The New York Times: "We must now protect boys from young girls." In 1927, a group of women started a campaign with the slogan of ending the sex party. Even as late as 30 years later, in the 1950s, Life magazine recalled these acts as "(these parties) well-known, but appalling," as the 1950 Kinsey Report shows: Prosperous 1920s, and 1900s In contrast, premarital sex among teenage girls increased by a staggering 350%.
Crazy house prices and the stock market
Having a house and a car has become an important criterion for choosing the opposite sex, even if it is not a marriage partner. If a boy doesn't have these, he becomes synonymous with a loser. Therefore, whether they are working-class or middle-class, even if they are just out of school, or country people who have just come to New York from the countryside, their dream is to have their own house and car.
1920 American suburban real estate advertisement (picture from the Internet)
In the 1920s, when Americans bought their first house, they needed to pay a 33% down payment of the full price of the house. If the buyer does not have enough down payment or even penniless, intermediary agencies and financial institutions can provide down payment loans, that is to say, an American can buy a house with nothing and rely on loans for everything. Buying a house by borrowing money has become very common.
In 1898, there was one car for every 18,000 people in the United States. Fifteen years later, in 1913, there was one car for every eight people. It was also in this year that Henry Ford introduced an assembly line and launched the Model T. In 1927, 26 million cars had been sold. The population of the United States was only 117 million that year.
Republican Coolidge was elected president with the campaign slogan of "Order and Prosperity" and was successfully re-elected. "The number one priority for Americans is to do business", encouraging people to invest in various ways. With the rise of the real estate market and stock market, real estate and stock speculation have become the focus of people's lives. The house is no longer a tool for living, but a product of financial speculation. In Florida, USA, there were less than 80,000 people at that time, and 25,000 of them were real estate agents. Real estate in prime locations can increase by 300-500% a year. By the craziest day in 1926, homes in Miami's prime locations were being bought and sold as many as 10 times a day. Thanks to the ubiquity of cars, real estate developers began building homes in suburban and rural areas to sell to middle-class urban families for vacations or as first homes for low-income people. In the seven years from 1922 to 1929, more than 880,000 new homes were built in the United States each year.
In the 1920s, the bustling streets of the United States (pictures from the Internet)
Stock trading has become the mainstream of life. From business tycoons like JP Morgan to investors like Livermore, to the middle class, housewives, and even drivers and chefs, they all rushed to the stock market. People mortgage their houses and invest in the stock market, but the houses are actually bought with loans. Even the down payment is borrowed. Leverage is becoming ubiquitous. At the craziest time, the leverage of stock market allocation was as high as 10 times. During the peak period, more than 4.5 million investors participated in the allocation of funds, with funds exceeding US$8.5 billion. It is equivalent to more than 60% of the market value of the stock market, which is more than the total amount of currency in circulation in the United States at that time. Whether it's the media or friends around, they are all talking about stocks and encouraging investment. In everyone's chats, there are all kinds of true and false myths about getting rich overnight by speculating in stocks.
Borrowing money to buy a house, a car, or even stocks and investments has become a practice. But even if you don't speculate in real estate and stocks, you want to give gifts to girls, but you don't have money, various financial institutions will help you borrow money, regardless of whether you have the ability to repay. Home appliances, clothes, Christmas Valentine's Day gifts, etc. can all be paid in installments. There is nothing that cannot be resolved in installments. Personal debt was over $100 billion at the time. In 1929, before the crash, the average annual income of an American farmer was only $273.
From 1923 to 1929, due to the extremely active trading, the US Dow Jones Index rose by as much as 500%, and rose to the highest peak of 381.17 points on September 3, 1929.
The entire United States fell into a kind of irrational exuberance.
Global Economic Crisis Caused by the Great Depression
It is a pity that the stock market and housing market cannot keep going up like people's desire. Greenspan said: "It is difficult to determine the bubble unless it bursts." Due to the excessive financialization of the United States and the long-term surplus in international trade, a large amount of gold has been gathered in the United States, and the liquidity is close to drying up. The crisis started to break out.
On Black Thursday, October 24, 1929, the U.S. stock market crashed suddenly. Shares fell 11%. Big Wall Street bankers started to bail out the market, closing down just 2%. The stock also rose 1% over the next three days.
On October 28, Black Monday, the stock plummeted again by 13%;
On October 29, Black Tuesday, it plunged another 12%, and the trading volume reached a record 16 million shares. Big bankers, including JPMorgan, intervened again, but panic had begun to flow like a flood;
It finally bottomed out on July 8, 1932, with a low of 41.22 points. The entire stock market has lost 89% of its peak in 1929. That fell to the lowest point on record in the 20th century.
It was not until November 23, 1954, more than 20 years later, that the Dow regained its pre-1929 level.
In October 1929, bankrupt stockholders stood outside the exchange (picture from the Internet)
The well-known American investment guru Livermore became famous in one fell swoop by shorting the U.S. stock market during the stock market crash. Made $100 million. Back then, a well-paid worker in the United States earned just over $1,000 a year.
According to Scherbina and Nicholas' Great Depression paper "Real Estate Prices During the Great Depression," properties purchased in 1920 plummeted 51% (in inflation-adjusted prices) by the end of 1939, and prices did not return to normal until 1960, 21 years later. . In 1932, 270,000 people lost their homes. In 1933, 1,000 loans were canceled every day. 50% of all home mortgages in the US are in default. After the Great Recession, individual homeowners applied to banks for 41,000 emergency loans, and only 3 were approved. Land prices fell, and by 1933 land prices in Chicago alone had plummeted 70%. The decline in non-core cities was even greater. Between 1929 and 1933, construction of residential properties fell by 95%. After 1929, the entire real estate industry collapsed completely, and it was not until 1950 that it recovered to the level of 1926 again.
In April 1930, 7,000 unemployed Americans were waiting for 25 job opportunities (pictures from the Internet)
Due to the collapse of the financial industry and the decline in consumption power, various factories began to reduce production, reduce production scale, and lay off workers, resulting in a soaring unemployment rate. More than 100,000 companies have gone bankrupt and more than 11,000 banks have closed down. Urban residents lost their houses and could only build crude shelters with planks, old iron sheets, sacks, and cardboard. Because there is no money to buy gasoline, the cars are pulled by oxen instead. A large number of wealthy businessmen and bankers, because of bankruptcy, can only push carts on the streets to sell apples.
In 1928, the unemployment rate was only 3.2%;
In 1930, the unemployment rate increased by 200% to 8.7%;
In 1931, the unemployment rate increased to 15.9 percent;
In 1932, the unemployment rate soared to 23.6 percent;
In 1933, the unemployment rate was 24.9%.
In 1933, more than 15 million people were unemployed. This is the highest unemployment rate ever recorded in the United States.
Misfortunes never come singly, and in the mid-1930s a vicious drought swept through the agricultural heartland of central America. The cotton boll weevil spread and cotton production was reduced. Under multiple blows, farmers fell into the abyss of debt. It's hard to even have a full stomach. Farmers flooded into the city, but they couldn't find jobs, so slums began to form, causing serious security incidents.
In 1932, the bloodshed of veterans in the United States shocked the whole country. During World War I, the U.S. government promised that retired soldiers could receive a substantial subsidy in 1945. But by 1932, more than 10,000 starving soldiers and their families demanded immediate subsidies from the government, but were rejected. Police shot and killed two ex-soldiers as they dispersed the crowd, sparking riots. The military began to mobilize tanks to quell the riots, and it was Patton who was later known as the commander of the battle. Four people were killed and hundreds were injured in the incident. President Hoover was criticized for this and lost his chance of re-election.
In 1932, the suicide rate in the United States reached its peak (picture via the National Library of the United States)
Unemployment combined with bankruptcies caused by investment failures caused the annual suicide rate in the United States to soar to the highest level in history from 1929 to 1933. From 18.0 per 100,000 people in 1928, it rose to 22.1 per 100,000 people in 1932, the highest in U.S. history. Most of them are men. In modern times, for every 1 percent increase in unemployment, suicides typically increase by about 1 percent, according to Steve Stack, a professor at Wayne State University. From 1929 to 1933, the number of abnormal deaths in the United States reached more than 7 million, most of which were due to suicide and malnutrition. At that time, there were even some black jokes about suicide in the United States: When guests checked into the hotel, the waiter would ask them if they wanted a room where they could sleep? Or a room that is convenient for jumping off the building?
As the most economically powerful country, the economic crisis caused by the Great Depression in the United States quickly swept the world. Stocks in all financial markets around the world except Japan began to plummet on October 24, 1929. As a defeated country in World War I, Germany is riddled with holes. It needs to repay war indemnities and restore its economy. It only needs to borrow money from the world leader, the United States. But after the Great Depression, the United States could not protect itself, which directly led to Germany's economic crisis. Production has come to a standstill, the unemployment rate has soared to 30%, nearly 6 million people are unemployed, social contradictions are very sharp, populism has begun to rise, and politics has turned to extremism. In January 1933, Hitler's Nazi Party came to power, and a larger-scale war was ready.
Between 1929 and 1931, Japan's economy declined by 8%. Japan stimulated its economy through deficit spending and depreciation of the yen.
By 1933, Japan was gradually emerging from the depression. But the economic crisis caused a serious political crisis, and Japan established a fascist dictatorship. From 1931, Japan invaded and occupied Northeast China. Germany, Italy and Japan frantically invaded foreign countries, and the Second World War kicked off.
他指责美国官方公布的消费者物价指数（CPI）数据旨在误导大众，美国即将面临比1930年代更加严重的大萧条，物价飞涨，薪水不涨，30年代的大萧条物价也开始下降。
据区块链专业网站bitcoin.com 17日报道，希夫警告即将到来的经济危机将引发比30年代美国所面临的大萧条更严重的局势。他认为，这场危机将由政府通过增加公共支出来刺激经济，所导致的高通货膨胀所引发，而这将影响美国公债的评估。
我们将面临一场危机，因为我们提高了美国国债上限，如果我们继续提高国债上限，而不是解决真正的问题：债务本身。如果他们决定停止提高国债上限，那么国债上限（反而）就会成为解决问题的方法。
“这可能会更糟，这是一场萧条，不同于1930年代的大萧条，那时人们至少还受益于物价下降而获得了一些缓解。这一次的经济危机，即使那些还在上班工作的人也将遭受损失，因为他们将失去他们薪水的价值”（万物疯涨但薪水没涨）
希夫还批评了美联储用于确认通货膨胀的消费者物价指数（CPI）数据的计算方式，称其公式设计，就是为给出低数值结果。他宣称：“基本上你必须将官方数字翻倍才能更好地了解实际的物价变化情况”，他的意思是真正的通膨指数当前应该接近10%。
希夫曾经预言了08年的金融危机，因而他的意见在业界受到广泛的重视。
财政没钱怎么办？那就罚款！
《南华早报》在报道中称，用高超音速无人机拦截高超音速导弹的理论是上海机电工程学院研究团队提出来的。这一理论存在的最大难题是拦截算法问题。此次研究团队采用新算法，一举攻克这一难题。
这种上海科学家团队研制的高超音速无人机（由吸气式发动机提供动力）可以以五倍以上的音速进行远距离飞行，在飞行至外来导弹威胁的6.8公里内，便可以释放携带的“动能武器”，摧毁外来导弹威胁！这样的无人机还可以反复挂弹，多次使用！
美国连高超音速导弹都还没有掌握，我们已经开始成功试验拦截高超音速导弹了，领先了一大截啊。
跨国公司投资上海有了新变化：除了新建工厂和产线，更多研发中心加速“落沪”
俄新社掌握的截图显示，一个名为“乌克兰拯救军”的地下组织入侵了乌克兰的一些政府网站，向乌克兰民众发出与现任当局作斗争的号召，并宣称已对位于基辅银行街的泽连斯基办公室发动攻击。
报道称，此前“乌克兰拯救军”的存在并不为人知晓。
据报道，在乌克兰敖德萨州政府网站被黑页面上发布的一份声明中说：“乌克兰拯救军负责任地宣布，对银行街的攻击只是展示我们的目标和抵抗能力。我们代表乌克兰人民，我们决定何时何地对泽连斯基及其阴谋集团和正在掠夺我们国家的寡头们进行审判。”声明的作者并未言明何时对银行街实施了何种攻击。目前，相关声明已从乌克兰网站上删除，但截屏被一些人保留了下来。
报道称，除敖德萨州政府网站外，上述声明也发布在该州伊兹梅尔区议会和民防司网站上。
据报道，上述声明说：“我们的祖国濒临灭亡！以恢复和平和与俄罗斯关系正常化为口号上台的泽连斯基，挑起了二战以来欧洲最大规模的冲突……我们，乌克兰拯救军，呼吁你们所有人，兄弟姐妹们，现在团结起来，清除正在杀死我们祖国的这个名叫泽连斯基的恶性肿瘤。”
声明表示，“乌克兰拯救军”支持者众多，他们已经行动起来。
报道称，该组织说：“泽连斯基及其随从仅听从美国的指示，无条件执行欧洲的所有命令，将乌克兰引向‘文明世界’的地狱。结果，乌克兰为了盎格鲁-撒克逊人和西方集体的利益沦为斯拉夫人的‘文明’战场，每天都有成百上千年轻乌克兰人丧生。此时此刻，一场自相残杀的战争正在欧洲的心脏地带上演。”
声明说：“我们的目标是拯救乌克兰，清理班德拉和西方走狗，恢复与俄罗斯人民的兄弟关系。”
“乌克兰拯救军”说：“我们，乌克兰人，必须在我们国家重新掌权。我们必须建立新的透明、可靠、真正属于人民、不受寡头和贪官摆布的权力体系。乌克兰必须真正自由！唯有摆脱美国和西方、腐败官员和寡头的影响，我们才能在我们的土地上恢复和平、振兴经济。”
1918年，第一次世界大战结束。原为世界霸主的英国，战争中被打得千疮百孔，元气大伤。世界金融中心由伦敦转到纽约。美元逐渐取代英镑的霸权。美国成为世界第一经济强国，美国开始进入历史上10年的黄金高速发展期。
直到1929年，美国大萧条时代到来，经济危机席卷全球，这直接改变了世界格局。
疯狂的消费主义盛行：
1920年代，大获全胜的美国开始迎接着属于自己的黄金时代，工商业等进入到一个空前繁荣的阶段：
1920年代，美国经济增长了42％。美国工业产值占世界的50%；
美国女性开始取得投票权；
电力迅速普及，大大提升了工业生产和生活品质；
失业率长期保持低水准，2-3%，从未超过4%；
卓别林电影风靡全球，娱乐了上千万观众；
查尔斯林德伯格从纽约飞到巴黎，驾驶单引擎飞机，实现了人类第一次横跨大西洋；
爵士乐诞生，路易斯阿姆斯特朗等爵士乐大师群星辈出；
从1926年到1929年，坐飞机的人数从6000人，增加到173000人；
黄金地段的房地产一年涨幅可以达到300%甚至更多；
在1923年至1929年间，道琼斯指数上涨高达500%；
李奥纳多主演的《伟大的盖茨比》，背景就是美国黄金时期的1922年。一个草根出身的男人，暴富之后，唯一的快感就是“烧钱”。直到近百年后的今天来看，场景依然是奢华而不可思议的：华美的服饰、昂贵的珠宝、豪华的别墅、喧嚣的宴会，闪耀的跑车，疯狂享乐、纸醉金迷、灯红酒绿。看起来就是一首盛世狂欢巅峰的交响曲。这并不是艺术的夸张，而是当时现实的镜像。
1920年代，是现代商业的转折点。迄今商业和生活中，消费主义、女权主义、现代广告和传播等多种现代商业形式、生活方式、思想观念，都来自这个时代。包括开放式的高档百货公司、商品邮购服务、连锁商店、宣扬消费至上的广告公司、厚厚的夹杂着大量广告的时尚杂志等等，都诞生在这个时代。知名的西尔斯（Sears）、雅芳（Avon）、A＆P、梅西百货（Macy's）等知名公司，如雨后春笋，迅猛发展。
从1910年代开始，美国广告商和制造商发现，女性是家庭消费的核心，她们负责购买全家的食品、衣物、电器等生活物品。于是开始针对女性做重点宣传，有人提出了“男人注重组织和效率，女人注重视觉和消费”的观点。针对这些现象，商家绞尽脑汁，力争各个阶段的女性来消费。女性的自我意识开始觉醒，女性开始在公司和机构担任中层管理人员。女人发现自己不仅可以照顾家庭，更要追求自我享乐和价值。于是参加晚宴、餐厅约会、美容院、商场购物都成了女性们喜好的热门活动。
有一家汽车制造商，开始生产多种颜色的汽车，在广告词里，告诉女性每天开的汽车要和连衣裙搭配。女性抽烟也得到广告商的鼓励，这被看成女性权利的重要象征。甚至有广告号称“吸烟可以减肥，帮助保持苗条身材。”
消费意识高涨，不管是男性，还是女性，及时行乐，享受当下，成了人生信条，尤其是年轻人。
饱暖思淫欲，这其实在哪个时代都一样，上半身吃饱了，就开始琢磨下半身的事。随着物质的发达，性爱成了年轻人最热衷的事情。在这个大背景下，乳胶避孕套诞生了。生产成本更低，用户体验舒适感更强。男人更舒服，女人更安全。于是，在享乐主义和消费主义的推动下，私密或公开的性爱活动开始爆发。
当时纽约等大都市的年轻男女，喜欢开各种派对，其中有一种是舞会上，“抚摸派对”，参加的男女相互抚摸，然后不能自已，后续的场景各位看官自己脑补。当时的宪法第18修正案宣布全国范围内禁酒，因为饮酒引发很多道德问题。但是享乐的人们，并不会真的遵从这条法令。在聚会上，女生脱下高跟鞋，倒满酒喂给男生喝，成了常见的场景。美国的酒类消费年增长超过50%。各种奢华的会所，提供各种耸人听闻的服务。
1922年，一位纽约母亲向《纽约时报》抱怨：“我们现在必须保护男孩子，以免他们受到年轻女孩的侵害。”1927年，一群妇女开始竞选运动，口号就是要结束这种性爱派对。甚至直到30年后的1950年代，《生活》杂志在回顾这些行为还说“ （这些派对）众所周知，但令人震惊”，1950年的《金西报告》显示：繁荣的1920年代，和1900年相比，少女婚前性行为增加了惊人的350%。
疯狂的房价与股市
有房有车，成了选择异性的重要标准，哪怕不是结婚对象。如果一个男生没有这些，就成了失败者的代名词。于是，不管是工薪阶层，还是中产阶级，哪怕是刚刚步出校门，或者刚从乡下来到纽约的乡下人，他们的梦想就是要有自己的房子和车子。
1920年代，美国人买第一套房子时，需要交房屋全款的33%的首付。如果买家没有足够的首付甚至一文不名，中介机构和金融机构可以提供首付的贷款，也就是说，一个美国人，可以一无所有，所有一切都靠贷款，就可以买下一套房子。靠着借贷买房，于是变得非常普遍。
1898年，在美国平均每18000人有一辆汽车。15年后的1913年，每8人就有一辆汽车。也就是在这一年，亨利·福特引入了一条流水装配线，推出T型车。1927年，已经卖出了2600万辆汽车。这一年美国人口才1.17亿。
共和党人柯立芝凭借“秩序与繁荣”的竞选口号当选总统并成功连任，“美国人的头等大事就是做生意”，鼓励民众通过各种方式进行投资。随着房市股市的上涨，炒房和炒股成了人们生活的重心。房子不再是居住的工具，而是金融投机产品。在美国佛罗里达，当时不到8万人，有 2.5 万是房地产中介。黄金地段的房地产一年涨幅可以达到300-500%。到最疯狂的1926年，迈阿密的黄金地段的房子一天被买卖多达10次。由于汽车普及，房地产开发商开始在城市郊区和农村地区修建房屋，卖给城市中产家庭度假，或者低收入人群作为首套房。在1922年至1929年的七年中，美国每年建造新房超过88万套。
炒股成了主流生活，从JP摩根这样的商业巨头，到利弗莫尔这样的投资者人，再到中产阶级，家庭主妇，甚至连司机和厨师，都冲向了股市。人们抵押了自己的房屋，投入股市，但是房子其实是贷款买入的。甚至首付都是借的。杠杆变得无处不在。最疯狂的时候，股市配资的杠杆高达10倍。高峰时期参与配资的股民超过 450 万人，资金超过 85 亿美元。相当于股市市值的60%以上，这比美国当时流通货币总额还要多。不管是媒体，还是周围的朋友，都在谈论股票，鼓励投资，大家闲谈之中，流传着各种真真假假的炒股一夜暴富的神话。
借钱买房买车甚至炒股和投资，成了惯例。但即使你不炒房炒股，你想给女生送礼物，但没有钱，各种金融机构帮你借钱，不管你有没有偿还能力。家电、衣服、圣诞节情人节礼物等都可以分期。没有什么是分期不能解决的。当时个人债务超过 1000 亿美元。而在崩溃前的1929年，一个美国农民的平均年收入只有273美元。
在1923年至1929年间，由于交投异常活跃的关系，美国道琼斯指数上涨高达500%，并于1929年9月3日升至最高峰的381.17点。
整个美国陷入到了一种非理性繁荣。
大萧条引发的全球经济危机
可惜的是，股市和房市并不能像人们的欲望那样，一直涨下去。格林斯潘说：“ 泡沫是很难确定的，除非它破了。”由于美国国内过度金融化，国际贸易的长时间顺差，黄金大量汇集在美国，流动性接近枯竭。危机开始爆发。
1929年10月24日，黑色星期四，美国股市的突然崩盘。股价下跌了11％。华尔街大银行家开始救市，收盘跌幅仅为2％。接下来3天，股票还上涨了1％。
10月28日， 黑色星期一，股票再次暴跌13％；
10月29日，黑色星期二，再次暴跌12％，交易量达到创纪录的1600万股。包括摩根在内的大银行家再次干预，但是恐慌情绪已经开始像洪水一样奔流；
一直到1932年7月8日终于见底，最低报41.22点，整个股市由1929年的最高点计，一共蒸发掉89%。这跌到了20世纪纪录上的最低点。
一直到20多年后的1954年11月23日，道指才重上1929年前的水平。
美国著名的投资大师利弗莫尔就是在这次股灾中，做空美国股市，一举成名。赚了1亿美金。当年美国一个收入不错的工人一年收入才1000多美金。
根据Scherbina和Nicholas的大萧条论文“大萧条时期的房地产价格”， 1920年购买的房产到1939年底，暴跌51％（按通货膨胀调整后的价格），直到21年后的1960年价格才恢复正常。1932年，有27万人失去了自己的房子。1933年，每天有1000笔贷款被取消。美国所有房屋抵押贷款中有50％违约。大萧条发生后，个人房主向银行提出了41000笔紧急贷款申请，只有3个被批准。土地价格下降，到1933年，仅仅是芝加哥的土地价格，就暴跌70％。非核心城市下降幅度更大。在1929年至1933年之间，住宅物业的建设量下降了95％。1929年后，整个房地产行业彻底崩溃，直到1950年才再次恢复到1926年的水平。
由于金融业崩盘，消费力下降，各种工厂开始减产，缩减生产规模，解雇工人，导致失业率飙升。累计破产企业超过 10 万多家，倒闭银行 11000 余家。城市居民失去了自己的房子，只能用木板、旧铁皮、麻袋、纸板搭起了简陋的栖身之所。因为没钱买汽油，汽车改为用牛拉动，大量之前富有的商人和银行家，因为破产，只能在街头推着小车卖苹果。
1928年，失业率仅为3.2％；
1930年，失业率增长了200%，达到8.7％；
1931年，失业率增长到15.9％；
1932年，失业率猛增到23.6％；
1933年，失业率为24.9％。
1933年，超过1500万人失业。这是美国有史以来的最高失业率。
祸不单行，在1930年中，一场凶狠的干旱席卷了美国中部的农业心脏地带。棉铃象鼻虫的蔓延，棉花减产。多重打击下，农民陷入债务深渊。连吃饱肚子都很难。农民涌入城市，但也找不到工作，于是贫民窟开始形成，造成严重的治安事件。
1932年，美国发生震惊全国的退伍军人流血事件。一战中，美国政府承诺，退伍的士兵在1945可以领到一笔不菲的补贴。但到了1932年，一万多名饥饿的士兵和家人要求政府马上发放补贴，遭到拒绝。警察在驱散人群时，开枪打死两名退伍士兵，引发骚乱。军方开始调集坦克平息骚乱，指挥战斗的，是后来知名的巴顿。事件造成4人死亡，数百人受伤。总统胡佛因此被诟病，失去连任机会。
失业加上投资失利导致的破产，使1929-1933年，美国年自杀率飙升至历史最高水平。从1928年的每10万人的18.0，上升到1932年每10万人的22.1，这是美国历史记录的最高值。其中大多数是男人。韦恩州立大学（Wayne State University）教授史蒂夫·斯塔克（Steve Stack）表示，在现代，失业率每增加1％，自杀人数通常就会增加大约1％。1929年-1933年，美国非正常死亡人数高达700多万，大多数是因为自杀和营养不良。在当时，美国甚至出现了一些自杀的黑色笑话：在客人入住酒店时，服务员会问他们，是要一个可以睡觉的房间？还是一个方便跳楼的房间？
作为经济第一强国，美国的大萧条导致的经济危机，迅速席卷全球。全球除日本外，全球所有金融市场的股票在1929年10月24日开始暴跌。德国作为一战败国，千疮百孔，又要偿还战争赔款，又要恢复经济，只要向全球老大的美国借钱。但大萧条后，美国自身难保，这直接导致了德国陷入经济危机。生产陷入停顿，失业率飙升，高达30%，近600万人失业，社会矛盾十分尖锐，民粹主义开始兴起，政治转向了极端主义。1933年1月，希特勒的纳粹党上台执政，更大规模的战争蓄势待发。
日本在1929-1931年间，经济衰退了8%。日本通过赤字支出、日元贬值来刺激经济。
到1933年，日本逐渐摆脱了萧条。但经济危机引起了严重的政治危机,日本建立了法西斯专政。从1931年日本侵占中国东北。德意日疯狂对外侵略，第二次世界大战拉开序幕。
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