The export channel to China is officially opened! 输华通道正式打通！“高度依赖美国的局面正在被改写”

 The export channel to China is officially opened! "The situation of high dependence on the United States is being rewritten"

On May 4th, a cargo ship full of corn from South Africa arrived at Machong Port in Guangdong, China. The first ship weighing 53,000 tons of feed corn arrived in China, marking the official opening of the South African corn export channel. Not long ago, on January 7, the first shipment of 68,000 tons of corn from Brazil crossed the Pacific Ocean and also berthed at Machong Port, announcing the opening of a new era for Brazilian corn to be exported to the Chinese market.

Relevant experts told the "Global Times" reporter that China has successively opened up Brazil and South Africa as two sources of corn imports, changing the previous situation where China's corn was highly dependent on the United States and Ukraine, two northern hemisphere countries. The trend of "rising in the south and falling in the north" means that China's corn imports, which were previously dominated by the United States, are undergoing major changes in 2023.

The proportion of corn in the United States has dropped sharply

According to the data inquired by the Global Times reporter from the General Administration of Customs, in the first quarter of this year, China imported about 7.52 million tons of corn. Among them, the most imported corn was 2.85 million tons from the United States, accounting for 37.8%; followed by Brazilian corn with 2.16 million tons, accounting for 28.8%; Ukrainian corn was 2.086 million tons, accounting for 27.7%.

In the previous two years, the United States and Ukraine occupied the absolute dominance of China's imported corn, accounting for more than 90%. Data show that in 2021, China will import 28 million tons of corn, of which the United States will account for 70% and Ukraine will account for 29%. Among the corn imported by China in 2022, American corn will account for 72%, and Ukrainian corn will account for about 26%.

The comparison of the above data clearly shows that in the composition of China's corn imports, the proportion of corn from the United States has dropped significantly in the first quarter of this year. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s export report on May 4 also showed that in the 2022/23 season starting September 1, 2022, the total U.S. corn exports to China were 8.03 million tons, a sharp drop of 45.2% year-on-year. According to data from the US Department of Agriculture, importers from China have canceled orders for 624,000 tons of US corn in late April this year.

The Rise of the "Power of the Southern Hemisphere"

According to the latest report released by the research institution "Guomao Futures", in the past first quarter of 2023, China imported 2.1628 million tons of Brazilian corn, accounting for 29.33% of Brazil's total corn exports in the first quarter. As a result, China surpassed traditional importing countries such as Japan and became the largest buyer of Brazilian corn.

After opening up the export channel of Brazilian corn to China, China quickly included South Africa in its corn import territory. COFCO, which opened the door to the Chinese market for South African corn, stated in a press release that corn is the most important local crop in South Africa, accounting for about 40% of all crops. South Africa's corn production and export volume rank among the top ten in the world. Feed-grade yellow corn produced in South Africa has low moisture content, low impurities, and high quality. It is an important source of high-quality feed corn in the world.

Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times reporter in an interview that as soon as the first corn ship came to China, there would be a second and a third. He said that behind the opening of the corn channel from South Africa to China is a series of complicated work, "This means that the problems involving the entire import and export and upstream planting have been solved, and it also means that more South African corn will become With the choice of Chinese traders, more South African corn will come to China.”

COFCO stated in a press release on May 4 that from the perspective of the construction of the global agricultural product supply chain, it has continuously opened up corn export channels from Brazil and South Africa to China, and promoted the formation of major corn producing areas in the northern hemisphere such as the United States and the Black Sea, and corn in the southern hemisphere such as South America and South Africa. The complementary circulation pattern of the main producing areas is conducive to further balancing the global seasonal and regional corn supply fluctuations and helping to stabilize China's global corn supply chain system.

The Security Significance of Import Diversification

Corn is an important feed grain in China and occupies an important strategic position in food security. Corn was mentioned 5 times in the No. 1 Central Document this year, second only to soybeans which were mentioned 8 times. Statistics show that in recent years, China's corn imports have been increasing year by year, and China is the world's largest corn importer. Previously, the United States and Ukraine had always occupied an absolute dominant position in China's corn imports.

The No. 1 document of the Central Committee clearly stated that the role of international trade in agricultural products should be played, and the strategy of diversification of agricultural product imports should be implemented in depth. Li Guoxiang believes that the diversification of food imports is also one of the important guarantees for food security. He told the "Global Times" reporter that the diversification of corn sources means that the risk of imports is reduced. In addition to natural disasters, rising geopolitical tensions also suggest that China's grain imports should strengthen risk management and "don't put all your eggs in one basket."

Li Guoxiang analyzed that due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the focus of Ukrainian corn exports has shifted to Europe, and due to the uncertainty of the renewal of the Black Sea Agreement, China’s import of corn from Ukraine has been restricted; while the United States, China’s largest source of corn, has continued to suppress China. Relations between the two countries continued to become tense. Li Guoxiang believes that from the perspective of national food security, especially under the risk of geopolitical conflicts, it is necessary for China to develop more sources of corn imports. Now, the pattern of "the United States is the only one" in the field of China's corn imports is being rewritten.

输华通道正式打通！“高度依赖美国的局面正在被改写”

5月4日，一艘满载着玉米的货轮自南非顺利抵达中国广东麻涌港，首船重5.3万吨饲料玉米到达中国，标志着南非玉米输华通道的正式打通。不久前的1月7日，第一船6.8万吨玉米从巴西跨越太平洋，同样停泊于麻涌港，宣告着巴西玉米开启了出口中国市场的新纪元。

相关专家对《环球时报》记者表示，中国连续开辟了巴西、南非两个玉米进口来源国，一改之前中国玉米高度依赖美国、乌克兰两个北半球国家的局面。“南升北降”的趋势意味着中国玉米进口此前“美国一家独大”格局在2023年正在发生重大改变。

美国玉米占比大降

《环球时报》记者从海关总署查询到的数据显示，今年一季度，中国进口玉米约752万吨。其中自美国进口的玉米最多，为285万吨，占比37.8%；其次是巴西玉米，数量为216万吨，占比28.8%；乌克兰玉米208.6万吨，占比27.7%。

在此之前的两年，美国和乌克兰占据着中国进口玉米绝对主导位置，占比超过九成。数据显示，2021年，中国玉米进口2800万吨，其中美国占比70%，乌克兰占比29%。2022年中国进口的玉米中，美国玉米占比72%,乌克兰玉米约为26%。

上述数据对比清晰地显示出，在中国玉米进口构成中，来自美国的玉米占比在今年第一季度出现了巨大下降。美国农业部5月4日出口报告也显示，始自2022年9月1日的2022/23年度，美国对中国玉米出口总量为803万吨，同比大降45.2%。据美国农业部数据，今年4月下旬，来自中国的进口商已累计取消62.4万吨美国玉米订单。

“南半球力量”强势崛起

研究机构“国贸期货”最新发布的一份报告显示，在过去的2023年第一季度，中国进口的巴西玉米达到 216.28 万吨，占巴西玉米一季度总出口量的 29.33%。中国也因此超过了日本等传统进口国，成为巴西玉米最大买家。

在开辟巴西玉米输华通道后，中国又迅速把南非纳入玉米进口版图中。为南非玉米打开中国市场大门的中粮集团在一份新闻稿中称，玉米是南非当地最主要的农作物，产值约占全部农作物的40%，南非玉米产量和出口量均位居世界前十。南非生产的饲料级黄玉米，水分低、杂质低，品质优良，是全球高品质饲料玉米的重要来源。

中国社会科学院农村发展研究所研究员李国祥接受采访时告诉《环球时报》记者，有第一艘玉米船来到中国，就有第二艘、第三艘。他表示，南非到中国的玉米通道的打通背后，是一系列复杂的工作，“这意味着涉及整个进出口以及上游种植等环节的问题都被解决了，也意味着将有更多南非玉米成为中国贸易商的选择，更多南非玉米会来到中国。”

中粮集团在5月4日的新闻稿中称，从全球农产品供应链建设来看，连续打通巴西和南非玉米输华通道，推动形成美国、黑海等北半球玉米主产区与南美、南非等南半球玉米主产区互为补充的流通格局，有利于进一步平衡全球季节性、区域性玉米供给波动，有助于稳定中国玉米的全球供应链系统。

进口多元化的安全意义

玉米是中国重要的饲料粮，在粮食安全中占有重要的战略地位。今年中央一号文件中5次提及玉米，仅次于被提及8次的大豆。数据显示，近年来中国玉米进口量呈逐年递增趋势，是世界上最大的玉米进口国。此前，美国和乌克兰在中国玉米进口中一直占据着绝对主导地位。

中央一号文件明确提出，发挥农产品国际贸易作用，深入实施农产品进口多元化战略。李国祥认为，实现粮食进口的多元化也是粮食安全的重要保障之一。他告诉《环球时报》记者，玉米来源多元化，意味着进口风险的降低。除了自然灾害外，不断加剧的地缘政治紧张也提示中国粮食进口应该加强风险管理，“不要把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里”。

李国祥分析说，由于俄乌冲突，乌克兰玉米出口重心转向了欧洲，且由于黑海协议的续签存在不确定性，中国自乌克兰进口玉米受限；而此前中国最大玉米来源国美国则持续打压中国，两国关系不断紧张。李国祥认为，从国家粮食安全的角度上来看，尤其是地缘政治冲突风险之下，中国有必要开拓更多的玉米进口来源。现在，中国玉米进口领域“美国一家独大”的格局已经正在被改写。