Taiwan's Anti-Japanese History!台湾抗日史！

On May 15, Li Dongxian, a taekwondo athlete from Taiwan, China, shined at the 2023 Asia-Pacific Senior Games held in Jeollabuk-do, South Korea. Successively won the men's 45-year-old and 40-year-old Taekwondo Poomsae individual and team bronze medals.

When receiving the award, Li Dongxian raised a five-star red flag and stood confidently on the awarding platform!

From the many creases on the flag, it can be seen that Li Dongxian treasured the five-star red flag very well.

His move won the praise and support of hundreds of millions of netizens, and at the same time broke the hearts of the green camp forces on the island.

1450 (Taiwan Navy) immediately organized an online siege against Li Dongxian. In addition to personal attacks with foul language, he also said that he received 5 million US dollars for raising the five-star red flag, and even said that he received 100 million yuan.

Some Taiwanese netizens ridiculed 1450, saying: Li Dongxian's behavior has made 1450's years of "hard work" a success overnight.

Li Dongxian is from Tainan, and Tainan is the most solid base of Dark Green. "A flat stomach should be flat" was Tainan's slogan back then, so the Green Camp was so hysterical.

Some Taiwanese politicians said that Li Dongxian should be "brought to justice". Chen Jianren, who replaced Su Zhenchang as the head of Taiwan's administrative agency, threatened in an interview with the media in Chiayi today: Relevant departments will investigate whether Li Dongxian is a member of the Communist Party and whether he has developed related organizations in Taiwan?

What scares the "Taiwan independence" forces the most is that Li Dongxian's actions will alert other young people in Taiwan, because he himself was once a green camp supporter.

Li Dongxian's change of thought is mainly due to two things:

1. Learn about the socialist system in the mainland and see the development of the mainland with your own eyes;

Second, I read the real history of Taiwan's anti-Japanese war, and this history is directly related to his ancestors.

Li Dongxian was born in 1986, but his story can be told from 1915, that is, his great ancestor Li Qingji.

Like Li Dongxian's age group, when they reach adulthood, many people will be brainwashed into "natural independence" by the green camp, because Taiwan's propaganda and educational institutions have blocked "Taiwan's anti-Japanese history" from them, and at the same time instilled in them Japanese "benevolent Taiwan" content.

In fact, this is a variant of "imperialized education". After Lee Teng-hui came to power, he categorically denied that Taiwan had a "history of resistance to Japan."

But the history written in blood is not something that "emperors" like Lee Teng-hui can obliterate by relying on lies.

In 1915, the most tragic anti-Japanese movement broke out in Taiwan-"噍巴哖 Incident".

噍巴哖 was a place name at that time, and it is now Yujing District, Tainan City.

The "噍巴哖 Incident" is also known as the "Xilai Temple Incident". Xilai Temple is located in the urban area of Tainan and is a local "Five Blessing Prince Temple". In 1915, anti-Japanese martyrs in the Tainan area took the "Wufu Wangye Temple" as a base for an uprising. They gathered here from all directions in the name of participating in religious activities to discuss the issue of armed resistance against Japan.

Headed by Yu Qingfang, Luo Jun, Jiang Ding, Li Qingji and others.

Their goal was to overthrow the Japanese colonial rule and establish a regime called "Daming Mercy Nation". After the event was completed, the Beiyang government was invited to send troops to Taiwan, and the people of Kaohsiung and Tainan joined in one after another.

However, due to poor behavior, the armed uprising was discovered by the "three-legged boy" (traitor), and the Japanese characterized it as an incident of Han people's armed resistance against Japan after learning about it.

Yu Qingfang and the others originally planned to launch an armed uprising in southern Taiwan in August 1915, but due to leaks, Luo Jun was arrested in early June.

In this way, the anti-Japanese organization had to launch an action in advance. On July 6, Yu Qingfang published the "Grand Marshal Yu's Announcement" calling for an uprising, and on July 9, the rebels rose up.

In the initial stage, the rebel army captured the police station, police station, Japanese government office and other institutions all the way, and the surrounding people joined in one after another. The battle went smoothly, and the team of hundreds of people suddenly grew to thousands of people.

At the beginning of August, Japan mobilized regular troops to pounce on the rebels.

On August 6, the two sides fought in Xibajiao. The weapons of the rebel army were only rifles, pistols, broadswords, and spears, while the Japanese army had machine guns and artillery.

Fighting until dark, more than half of the more than a thousand volunteers were killed or injured, so they had to split up to break through the encirclement at night.

The tragedy of the Battle of Xibajiao does not refer to the situation that day, but refers to the frequent massacres of villages by the Japanese army that occurred later.

In order to hunt down leaders such as Yu Qingfang, Jiang Ding, and Li Qingji, the Japanese killed village by village, killing more than 10,000 people (there is another saying that more than 30,000 people)

If the Japanese were to destroy a police station by the rebels, it would be compensated with the lives of a village of Taiwanese.

Beginning on August 7, the Japanese military and police conducted large-scale raids on mountainous areas, villages, and private houses where there were traces of rebel activities. They killed everyone and burned every house. This was a massacre of revenge.

So far, some "scary" place names in Kaohsiung and Tainan are derived from the massacre of that year.

For example, there is a place in Guidan Linkou (now Guidan, Nanxi District, Tainan City) called "Killer Pu". It was originally a valley that was indifferent to the world, but because the rebels got food and water from the locals when they fought here aid, the Japanese massacred the village here.

When the Japanese army surrounded Guidan, all the men over the age of 10 in the village had their hands tied behind their backs, and then they beheaded one by one with a samurai sword, and then pushed the corpses into the pit.

In Zhutouzaki, Nanhua (east of Tainan City), there is a place called "Wanwandui". Li Dongxian's ancestor Li Qingji was a local. In order to vent their anger, the Japanese army tied all the men over 16 years old to the open space (today's Yushan Primary School), shot them with machine guns, and massacred them all.

Every year on the "June 28th" of the lunar calendar, sacrificial activities are held here. The cause is the Zhutouzaki massacre.

There is also a "Murdering Pu" in Mugongzhuang, Zuozhen, Tainan. Because the village Baozheng Yan Chaoyang (equivalent to the township head) took in the leader of the rebel army, the Japanese army killed all the more than 1,000 adults in the village. Children under the age of 10 were locked in the public house of the Temple of the Three Realms, and then set fire to death.

Jiang Ding, one of the leaders of the rebel army, and his wife fled with their twin sons in order to escape. In order to prevent the cries of the babies from being heard by the Japanese army and implicating the fleeing villagers, she threw the twin sons into the river. If they were discovered by the Japanese army at that time, everyone would have to die.

In Jianwencao, Zuozhen, a family of 8 were killed. One person carried a log and floated along the Zengwen River to Xigang. It was not until Japan surrendered that he dared to return to his hometown to worship his ancestors.

In the textbooks of Taiwan Province, these massacres do not exist, but are passed down orally by local people from generation to generation.

Li Qingji was arrested after breaking out of the siege, but refused to surrender, and was killed by the Japanese with extremely brutal means. A jailer who was guarding Li Qingji was moved by his anti-Japanese spirit, so he secretly sent a letter from his family to his wife. His wife took their children and hid in the mountains and lived a life like a savage, only to escape the massacre of the village.

Then the family moved to southern Taiwan incognito. In 1986, Li Qingji's great-great-grandson Li Dongxian was born.

In March 2018, Nanhua District, Tainan City held a super crossing ceremony for 229 anti-Japanese martyrs with names and surnames in the "噍巴哖 Incident". Even babies are killed.

The appeal of the villagers is to ask the Taiwan authorities to truthfully record the atrocities of the Japanese massacring the anti-Japanese martyrs, but five years have passed, and the Taiwan authorities still refuse to recognize the brutality of the Japanese.

If Li Dongxian and other young people hadn't learned about these terrible histories through manuscripts, he would probably still follow the DPP and shout "freedom and democracy" in a daze.

The villages in Tainan that were almost wiped out include: Shazitian, Mangzimang, Zhuwei, Gangzilin, Neizhuangzizhuang, Jingpuliao, Zhongkeng, Nanzhuang, Beiliao, Zhutouzaki.

This is a photo of the Japanese military and police escorting martyrs to the court for trial. 866 people were sentenced to death with headbands.

Photos of Yu Qingfang and others passing by the Tainan parking lot before being hanged.

In 2015, on the 100th anniversary of the "噍巴哖 Incident", the Ma Ying-jeou authorities asked people to count the number of victims, and the number was 2,832, but the Jiaxian and Shanlin districts of Kaohsiung could not be counted.

Some "imperial people" scholars in Taiwan even deny such figures, and say that Tainan people are the most "loyal" to the Japanese. For traitors, their ancestors were the beneficiaries of the "massacre", and the property of extinct villagers was "rewarded" to these "imperial people". Therefore, how can Taiwan have anti-Japanese behaviors?

In fact, during the 50 years from 1895 to Japan's surrender, the bloody Chinese in Taiwan were slaughtered, and those who helped them on the stage were all "imperialized" traitors and scum.

Li Dongxian will definitely be retaliated against, because those "Taiwan independence" scum can't stand him and can't tolerate him.

But there will be more and more Li Dongxians, and the righteous men who are devoted to the motherland will definitely play an important role in liberating Taiwan.

On that day, the five-star red flag will be planted all over Taiwan!

Yesterday was a day when the Russian fans were more excited than the Russians. They cheered that Prigokin, the boss of Wagner's mercenaries, announced that he had occupied Bakhmut, although it was not the first time he had made such an announcement. Bingyu did not update Bakhmut's battle situation in yesterday's article, because he wanted to read more reports. But as the old saying goes, laughing too early is not the same as laughing your best. Sure enough, there was another dramatic change in the news today.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Mariar said that the Ukrainian army is still in the area of the aircraft monument in the city, and the army commander-in-chief, General Shirsky, said that they still control a small part of Bakhmut. The most cited yesterday was President Ozawa's oolong in an interview. The reporter asked two questions in one sentence: Mr. President, has Bakhmut been occupied as the Russian army claimed? Are Ukrainian troops still holding on to Bakhmut? It is obvious that this reporter is digging a hole for Zelensky, and whether he answers "yes" or "no", there is a possibility of being misinterpreted. As soon as the news came out, many Russian fans became excited, saying that he admitted to Bachmut's failure, and they were as excited as if they could eat four dishes during the Chinese New Year. Then Ukrainian Presidential Spokesperson Kivlov made a clarification. I don’t think Mr. President said, referring to the fact that Russia did not occupy Bakhmut. The Associated Press and other major media have also updated and clarified the news. But there is no media on Jianzhong.com who is willing to correct the report.

Recently, some netizens felt that the Ukrainian army's fighting in Bahmut was too slow and too aggressive, and the weapons supported by the West could not keep up, were not strong, and did not have good weapons. In this regard, you can compare the former Soviet Union's war in Afghanistan. At that time, the Soviet army withdrew after more than 10,000 deaths. Since then, the Soviet Union has also turned from prosperity to decline until it disintegrated. But the disintegrated Soviet Union did not usher in a real civilization, and the later Russia continued to call on history instead. If Western countries want to completely solve the big geese, they need to disintegrate them internally. At present, the internal antagonism of the big goose is already very serious, but the decisive turning point needs time to ferment. If you want to crush the S camel, you only need to add it one by one. straw. Adding too much at once will scare it away. This time, Big Goose lost more than 200,000 soldiers and was still unwilling to withdraw. Behind it is the bunker boy who is red-eyed after losing, unwilling to step off the poker table, looking at the few chips in his hand, and thinking about a stud to win back his capital and face. It's a pity that until now, the cards have already been seen, and the fate of boiling the goose in warm water is inevitable.

Before that, 5 goose fighters were destroyed by the regiment, and then all the daggers were intercepted, and they were beaten in the face one after another. A victory for the tough guy fame. It's a pity that Big Goose is the same as Ma Baoguo: before the attack, everyone thought he was a master of a generation; after the attack, he turned out to be the king with a strong mouth.

While the Fort Boys were still immersed in Bakhmut's false victory, some units of the Ukrainian army had already invaded the Birgerode region in the Goose territory, and used tanks, helicopter gunships and drones. The Free Russian Army may be the first to attack (The big goose descends). At present, the local Russian Federation is entering a state of emergency, and local residents have sought refuge. The Bunker Boys called the "special military operation" the "Patriotic War" during the military parade on Red Square on May 9, but they did not expect it to be a prophecy. Here we must praise the bunker boy's unrestrained military talent, and labeled the "special military operation" as the "Patriotic War", which is absolutely worthy of the title of "Crouching Dragon and Phoenix".

There is one more thing to pay special attention to. Prigkin said he would hand over the position to the military on May 25. Let's take a look at the battle situation. Now Wagner is attacking in the downtown area and wants to fulfill his oath to win Bachmut. However, the Xiaowu army attacked the Big Goose National Defense Army on the high ground in the suburbs, and the left and right pincers looked like a pocket. The bandit army seems to be aware of this danger, he seized the time to announce the completion of the task, seems to want to take this kind of accountable victory, get the project money, slap his ass and leave, evacuate this dangerous pocket as soon as possible, and put away the hot people. The sweet potatoes were handed over to the regular army.

In the early hours of the 16th, the Goose fired 18 missiles at the Ukrainian capital from the sea, land and air, which were 100% intercepted by the Patriots. The bunker boy expressed dissatisfaction. On the 18th, the Russian army launched another 30 missile attacks on Ukrainian cities. According to statistics, this time, among the 30 missiles, there were 22 kh101 and kh555, 6 daggers, and 2 Iskander k. As a result, only 29 missiles were intercepted. Obviously, this time the face was not as painful as the last time, which saved a lot of face for the bunker boy.

Biden, who is attending the G7 summit in Hiroshima, Japan, told other leaders on the 19th that the United States will support its allies in training Ukrainian pilots for F16 fighter jets. The decision marks a stark shift in Biden's attitude.

In addition, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Belgium formed the Ukrainian Aid Alliance to form a fund to maintain and upgrade the Ukrainian F16. Finland, Canada, etc. intend to assist the F18 Hornet and are seeking approval from the United States. According to another source, Japan expressed its intention to assist F15 heavy fighter jets. Countries such as the Baltic Sea and Poland are unable to assist Western-style fighters, saying that they can send all MiG-29s to Ukraine. If F16 can be used in conjunction with F15, it will be unrivaled under the stars.

When it comes to this goose fan definitely disagrees, and will definitely brag about how impressive the Russian-made fighter jets are. Compared with contemporary American-made fighter jets, they have better performance in speed, range, and maneuverability. At major air shows, Cobra maneuvering and falling leaves vector engines are often displayed. But such an excellent aircraft, why hasn't it shot down an American-made fighter jet in 40 years, but on the contrary, it has been shot down by hundreds of them?

With Zelensky's lightning diplomatic offensive, European countries are rapidly changing their attitudes towards the big goose. For example, the United Kingdom has guaranteed a decisive military victory to Ukraine. The most outrageous thing is the French government, which not only assured Zelensky of absolute support, but also directly attacked the goose. According to the requirements of Paris, France, the athletes of Goose can participate in the Olympic Games, but they must meet one condition: apply for participation as refugees. WTF? Refugee status? You are typically not very lethal and extremely insulting. You are too insulting. Great Emperor, listen to me, if we don't go, we won't be insulted by that. Ha ha!

How big was Crane's personnel loss? Opinions vary widely on this topic.

In other words, there are too few authoritative and reliable answers. Of course, there is another important reason for talking about this topic, which is closely related to how the future conflict between Russia and Ukraine will end.

Let me first talk about my basic views on the loss of Ukrainian personnel, and talk about a few figures that I think are relatively authoritative and reliable.

The first number was mentioned by Zaluzhny, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, when he visited the United States on January 21, 2023. When Zaluzhny visited the United States, he told the Americans: Since the beginning of the war, the Ukrainian army has suffered a total of 257,000 "irreparable losses."

Zaluzhny's statement is very interesting. What is "irreparable loss"? Think about it, those who died in battle are irreparable, and those who are injured should be able to recover as long as they recover from their injuries and can return to the front line, and those who are irreparably injured should be those who are seriously injured and unable to return to the front line. By. Of course, some of those captured will not come back, and this is also irreversible.

The personnel losses of these three items are added together, and the total given by Zaluzhne is 257,000. Note that this time is late January of this year.

The second figure that I think has reference value is provided by Israel's Mossad. Mossad is a world-renowned intelligence agency. Although Israel is a small country, its intelligence agency Mossad is famous. It is also known as the world's four major spy agencies along with the CIA in the United States, the KGB in the Soviet Union, and MI6 in the United Kingdom. .

What is the figure given by Israel's Mossad? 157,000 people died, 234,000 were injured, and 17,000 were captured. The number of Mossad is as of the first anniversary of the outbreak of the conflict, which is basically the same time as the number mentioned by Zaluzhne.

If we take the number of Mossad and do a simple calculation, if one-third of the injured are seriously injured and unable to return to the team, the number of losses should be 157,000, plus 17,000 captured, plus nearly 80,000. If a comparison is made, the number provided by Mossad is quite close to that of Zaluzhne, and their cut-off time is also quite close, which shows that this number is relatively reliable and reliable.

In addition to these two figures, there is another figure that has a strong reference value, and that is what Ukraine's Defense Minister Reznikov said.

Reznikov once said that since the outbreak of the conflict in 2022, Ukraine has conducted nine rounds of mobilization, recruiting a total of 950,000 people. There are still about 1 million uniformed people in Ukraine. Reznikov should have said this at the end of last year. From what Reznikov said, we can make some calculations. Before the conflict broke out, the total strength of the Ukrainian army was about 250,000. If there are some militias and local armed forces, it should be more than 300,000.

By the end of 2022, after 9 rounds of recruitment, 950,000 people have been recruited. Adding the original 300,000 people, there should be nearly 1.3 million people. However, Reznikov said that there are still more than 1 million uniformed people. Obviously, the sum of the original number and the number of conscripts is nearly 300,000 people short of the existing uniformed people. This is nearly 300,000 people. Where did it go? It should be the kind of "irreparable loss" that Zaluzhny said.

Judging from the sources of these three information, it is either from Ukrainian officials or authoritative intelligence agencies, and the three figures are basically the same when compared. The conclusion reached is that by February and March this year, which is the first anniversary of the outbreak of the conflict, Ukrainian soldiers have lost about 300,000 troops.

According to relevant information from all parties, there are currently 500,000 armed personnel of various types in Ukraine on the Udong front, with an average of hundreds of casualties per day.

Speaking of this, the figures mentioned above are the losses of Ukrainian soldiers, but I first talked about the losses of Ukrainian personnel. The loss of personnel includes not only the loss of soldiers, but also the loss of population. From the perspective of personnel losses What does it look like?

Ukraine's pre-war population was about 43 million. After the conflict broke out, 8 million people fled out, and another 9 million people stayed in the Russian-occupied area or entered Russia.

Calculated in this way, the actual population of the Ukrainian-controlled area should be more than 20 million people, more than 20 million people, and half of the women are removed, and there are still more than 10 million people left. More than 10 million, the population aged 20-40 should account for about 1/3, so it is about 3.6 million.

According to the general law of manpower mobilization, those who can be mobilized into the army account for 1/3 of the men in the recruiting age group. You can't take all these men into the army, because you still have to engage in production, and maintain daily life and social operations. So at most it is 1/3. How much is 1/3? It is 1.2 million.

According to this reasoning, Ukraine's domestic mobilization has basically reached its limit, because we saw that in the 10th round of mobilization in Ukraine, the age limit for recruiting personnel has been relaxed to 60 years old, which shows that human resources have reached their limit. Go any further, and human resources will be exhausted.

Why do we talk about these things? Some people say that casualties can tell who wins and who loses on the battlefield, and who wins and who loses. In fact, gains, losses, gains, and losses are all trivial matters, because compared with the results of conflicts and wars, casualties and losses can sometimes be ignored. However, in the context of the current Russia-Ukraine conflict, the loss of Ukrainian personnel is an important indicator. What metrics? It is an important value to see whether this conflict will end.

When a conflict is about to end, how does it end? First of all, both sides have the political will to end the issue, but it seems that neither side has a strong will.

Not long ago, the Chinese special envoy went to Kiev and met with Zelensky. Zelensky expressed two meanings in his first sentence. The first is that he will never accept land for peace, and the second is that he will not accept any form of freezing conflict.

Where did these two statements come from? The matter of land for peace should be aimed at Burns, director of the US Central Intelligence Agency. Because in mid-January 2023, CIA Director Burns was assigned by Biden to Ukraine and Russia. At that time, he tentatively proposed a plan that Ukraine would exchange 20% of its territory for peace.

Of course, this statement by Burns only represents the meaning of the moderate faction in the American political arena, and it has not formed the final advantage in the foreign policy of the United States. Even so, this thing was rejected by the Ukrainian side and Zelensky. What Zelensky said to our special envoy blocked the way.

Second, freeze conflicts of any kind are not accepted. What does this sentence mean? I have said before that the most likely way for the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is to sign a ceasefire agreement, not a peace agreement, as in the Korean War. Because there are too many legal issues that need to be resolved in the peace agreement, and there are too many things that need to be determined, it is difficult to sign it. What should we do? I will cease fire first, stop the conflict on the spot, and discuss the remaining issues slowly. This is the so-called frozen conflict.

Now, Zelensky has made it clear that he does not accept any form of frozen conflict. These two sentences reflect that the political will of Zelensky and Ukraine to stop the conflict is close to zero, and Ukraine is close to zero. Naturally, it is impossible for Russia to actively stop the conflict. This road will be blocked. up.

There is only one way to cease fire, that is, one side is really unable to continue fighting. This problem depends on three aspects: first, money; second, weapons; third, people. In terms of money, Ukraine is in much worse shape than Russia.

What is the state of Ukraine? The normal operation of the Ukrainian government currently has a gap of about 40-60 billion euros per year. At present, the financial resources provided by the EU to Ukraine each month are 5 billion euros, which is exactly 60 billion euros in 12 months, which can completely fill the gap in Ukraine. Therefore, the lack of money will not prevent Ukraine from fighting this battle.

Some people may say, this is the case now, will the EU be sustainable for a long time in the future? There is a number for reference.

At present, the assets of the Russian central bank that are frozen are about 300 billion euros, and there are also frozen personal assets of 20 billion euros, which means that the EU does not need to pay for them. 5 years without problems. So Ukraine will not be short of money, will it be short of weapons?

At present, the total amount of military aid provided or promised by the United States and Europe to Ukraine is close to 100 billion U.S. dollars. According to this standard, if we continue to fight, it should be no problem to fight for a year or two.

For Russia, I don’t need to explain the weapons, there will be no shortage. What are the remaining factors that may make the war impossible? are people. On this issue, Ukraine is especially more obvious. After all, the population of Russia before the war was three times that of Ukraine, and it can even reach six times at present.

Therefore, the assessment and speculation of Ukraine's human losses can roughly determine how long this conflict can last and how long Ukraine can last.

According to the number of losses and the current rate of losses I mentioned earlier, Ukraine should not have a big problem until the end of this year.

But if the fight continues in 2024, there will be problems with the source of troops, and there will be a crisis of manpower. Is there a solution to this? Of course there is a solution. A large number of foreign soldiers and mercenaries entered.

There is a saying that there are at least 40,000 Polish armed personnel in Ukraine, and more than 10,000 armed personnel of other nationalities. I dare not say whether this number is accurate, but a large number of foreign armed personnel have entered Ukraine, join the Ukraine war, this is an indisputable fact.

However, whether foreign mercenaries can enter Ukraine in large numbers and win the battle for the Ukrainian army on behalf of the Ukrainians is also a big problem, because the entry of foreign armed personnel in large numbers will inevitably lead to spillover and escalation of the conflict. Is Europe willing to see this issue? Would the United States want to see it? I'm afraid this is a big problem.

5月15日，来自中国台湾的跆拳道运动员李东宪，在韩国全罗北道举行的2023亚太壮年运动会上大放异彩。接连夺得了男子45岁及40岁组跆拳道品势个人、团体铜牌。

在领奖时，李东宪将一面五星红旗展开举起，自信地站上了颁奖台！

从旗帜多处折痕可以看出，李东宪将五星红旗珍藏得很好。

他的这一举动获得了亿万网友的点赞和支持，同时也让岛内绿营势力心碎一地。

1450（台湾水军）立刻组织了一场针对李东宪的网络围攻，除了污言秽语的人身攻击之外，还说他举起五星红旗是收了500万美元，甚至说他收了1亿人民币。

有的台湾网友嘲讽1450说：李东宪的行为让1450们多年“辛苦”一夜破功。

李东宪是台南人，而台南是深绿最扎实的基本盘，“肚子扁扁也要挺扁”就是台南当年的口号，所以绿营会如此歇斯底里。

一些台湾政客说要“法办”李东宪，接替苏贞昌成为台行政机构负责人的陈建仁今天在嘉义接受媒体采访时威胁说：相关部门要调查李东宪是否是共产党员，是否在台湾发展相关的组织？

让“台独”势力最为害怕的是李东宪的举动会警醒其它台湾年轻人，因为他本人就曾经是一位绿营支持者。

李东宪的思想转变主要是缘于两件事：

一、了解到了大陆社会主义制度以及亲眼看到了大陆的发展；

二、读到了真实的台湾抗日史，而这段历史跟他的祖上有直接关系。

李东宪生于1986年，但他的故事可以从1915年讲起，也就是他的高祖李清吉。

像李东宪这个年龄段，到了成年之后，很多人就会被绿营洗脑为“天然独”，因为台湾的文宣和教育机构对他们封杀了“台湾抗日史”，同时向他们灌输日本人“有恩于台湾”的内容。

其实这就是“皇民化教育”的变种，李登辉上台后就断然否认台湾有“抗日史”。

但血写的历史并不是李登辉这类“皇民”凭借着信口雌黄就能抹杀的。

1915年台湾爆发了最惨烈的抗日运动--“噍吧哖事件”。

噍吧哖是当时的一个地名，现为台南市玉井区。

“噍吧哖事件”又称“西来庵事件”，西来庵位于台南市区，是当地的一座“五福王爷庙”。1915年，台南地区的抗日义士将“五福王爷庙”当成了起事的根据地，大家以参加宗教活动名义从四面八面聚集到此，共同商议武装抗日问题。

为首的有余清芳、罗俊、江定以及李清吉等人。

他们的目标就是要推翻日本人殖民统治，并建立一个叫“大明慈悲国”的政权，成事后，请北洋政府出兵入台，高雄和台南两地民众纷纷加入。

但由于行事不周，武装起义被“三脚仔”（汉奸）探知，日本人得知后将其定性为：汉人武装抗日事件。

余清芳他们原计划是在1915年8月在台湾南部发动武装起义，由于泄密，导致罗俊于6月初被捕。

这样，抗日组织不得不提前发起行动，7月6日，余清芳发表了《大元帅余告文》号召起义，7月9日义军起事。

在最初阶段，义军一路攻占了派出所、警察署、日本人官厅等机构，周边民众纷纷加入，战事颇为顺利，几百人的队伍一下子发展到了几千人。

8月初，日本调集正规军扑向义军。

8月6日，双方在噍吧哖交战，义军的武器只有步枪、手枪、大刀、长矛，而日军有机关枪、火炮。

战至天黑，一千多名义军已是死伤过半，只能趁夜分头突围。

噍吧哖战役的惨烈并不是说当天的情形，而是指后来发生的日军频频屠村血案。

为了搜捕余清芳、江定、李清吉等首领，日本人是一个村一个村地杀过去，累计杀了一万多人（还有一种说法是三万多人）

如果日本人被义军摧毁了一个派出所，那么就要用台湾人一个村的人命来抵偿。

8月7日开始，日本军警对有义军活动踪迹的山区、村落、民宅进行大规模搜捕，逢人就杀，逢屋便烧，这完全是报复性的屠杀。

至今为止，高雄和台南的一些“惊悚”地名都是来源于当年的大屠杀。

比如，龟丹林口（今台南市楠西区龟丹）有一个地方叫“杀人埔”，这里本来是一个与世无争的溪谷，然而因为义军在这里作战时得到过当地人的粮食和水源援助，日本人就对这里进行了屠村。

日军在包围龟丹时，将全村10岁以上男子全部双手反绑，然后用武士刀一个个斩首，再将尸体推入坑洞。

在南化竹头崎（台南市东部），有个地名叫“万人堆”。李东宪的高祖李清吉就是当地人，为了泄愤，日军将这里的所有16岁以上男子绑至空地（今天的玉山小学），用机关枪扫射，屠杀殆尽。

这里现在每年农历“六月二八”都要举行祭祀活动，起因就是竹头崎屠杀事件。

台南左镇木公庄也有一个“杀人埔”，由于该村庄保正严朝阳（相当于乡长）收留过义军头领，日军就将全庄1000多名成年人全部杀死。10岁以下儿童则被反锁在三界公庙的公厝内，再放火烧死。

义军首领之一江定，他的妻子为了逃生，带着双胞胎儿子逃难，为了避免婴儿哭声被日军听到，连累逃难乡亲，她将双胞胎儿子扔进了河中。如果当时被日军发现，所有人都得死。

左镇简文草，一家8口被杀，一个人抱着木头顺着曾文溪溪水漂到西港，直到日本投降才敢回乡祭祖。

而在台湾省教科书当中，这些屠杀事件是不存在的，只是由当地人代代口头相传。

李清吉在突围之后被捕，拒不投降，结果被日本人以极为凶残的手段杀害。当时看押李清吉的一名狱卒由于被他抗日精神感动，将他的一封家书偷偷送到了他的妻子手中。他的妻子带着孩子躲进深山，过着野人般的生活，这才躲过了屠村惨案。

然后这家人隐姓埋名辗转南台湾，1986年李清吉的玄孙李东宪降生。

2018年3月，台南市南化山区为“噍吧哖事件”229位有名有姓的抗日烈士举办了超渡大法会，另外还有28名婴儿的牌位，可见，当年屠村时，日本人连婴儿都杀。

村民的诉求就是要求台湾当局如实记录日本人屠杀抗日义士的暴行，但5年过去了，台湾当局仍然拒绝承认日本人的兽行。

如果李东宪等青年人不是通过手抄本得知这些可怕的历史，他很可能还会浑浑噩噩跟着民进党喊什么“自由民主”。

被杀到几乎绝户的台南村庄有：沙仔田、芒仔芒、竹围、冈仔林、内庄仔庄、菁埔寮、中坑、南庄、北寮、竹头崎。

这是日本军警押送义士到法院审判时的照片，带着头笼的有866人被处以死刑。

余清芳等人被绞死前路过台南停车场时的照片。

2015年在“噍吧哖事件”100周年之时，马英九当局曾让人统计过遇难人数，数字为2832人，但高雄的甲仙和杉林两区无法统计。

台湾一些“皇民”学者连这样的数字都要否认，还说台南人最“忠诚”于日本人。对于汉奸来说，他们的祖上是“大屠杀”受益人，绝户村民的财产都“赏”给他这些“皇民”，所以，台湾怎么能够有抗日行为呢？

实际上，从1895年到日本投降的50年期间，台湾有血性的中国人被杀得人头滚滚，而扶到台上的都是些“皇民化”的汉奸败类。

李东宪肯定会遭到报复，因为那些“台独”败类见不得光也容不下他。

但李东宪们一定会越来越多，心向祖国的义士们也一定会为解放台湾发挥重要作用。

到那一天，五星红旗必将插遍台湾岛！

昨天是俄粉们表现的比俄国人都兴奋的一天，他们在欢呼说瓦格纳雇佣军的老板普利戈金宣布已经占领了巴赫穆特，尽管他已经不是第一次这样宣布了。冰语昨天文中没有更新巴赫穆特战况，是想看看更多的报道。不过正如那句老话说的，笑的太早不等于笑得最好。果然今天新闻又有了戏剧性的变化。

乌国防部副部长玛利亚尔表示，乌军仍然在该市飞机纪念碑一带，陆军总司令希尔斯基上将表示，他们仍然控制着巴赫穆特一小部分。昨天被引用最多的是小泽总统接受采访闹出的乌龙，记者用一句话问了两个问题：总统先生，巴赫穆特是否已经像俄军声称的那样被占领了？乌克兰军队是否还在坚守巴赫穆特？很明显这名记者在给泽连斯基挖坑，不论回答“是”或者“否”都有被误读的可能。消息一出，许多俄粉就嗨起来了，说他承认了巴赫穆特的失手，兴奋的就跟过年能吃上四个菜一样。随后乌总统发言人基夫洛夫做出了澄清，总统先生说的我认为没有，指的是大俄并没有占领巴赫穆特。美联社等各大媒体也对新闻作出了更新澄清。可是简中网没有媒体愿意再更正报道。

最近有网友觉得乌军在巴赫穆特打的太慢，太窝火，而且西方支援的武器也跟不上，也没有力度，也没有好武器。对此大家可以对比前苏联阿富汗战争，那时苏军死了一万多就撤军了。此后，苏联也由盛转衰，直到解体。但解体的苏联并没有迎来真正的文明，后来的俄罗斯反而不断向历史招魂。西方国家想彻底的解决大鹅，就需要在内部瓦解他们，目前大鹅内部对立情绪已经很严重，但决定性的转机需要时间来发酵，想要压S骆驼，只需一根一根给它添加稻草。一次加太多反而会把它吓跑。这次，大鹅损失二十多万士兵，依然不愿意撤兵。其背后是地堡男孩输红了眼，不愿意走下牌桌，看着手里不多的筹码，还想着一把梭哈，赢回本钱，找回面子。可惜，打到现在，底牌早已经被看尽，温水煮大鹅的命运不可避免。

前有5架鹅战机被团灭，后有匕首全部被拦截，接二连三被打脸，鹅粉心里苦，鹅粉不敢说，鹅粉太需要一场胜利来安慰自己受伤的心灵，太需要一场胜利为硬汉扬名。可惜，大鹅和马保国一样：动手前，大家都以为他是一代宗师;动手后，原来是嘴强王者。

当地堡男孩还沉浸在巴赫穆特的虚假胜利中时，乌军有部分单位已经攻入大鹅境内比尔格罗德州，并且使用了坦克、武装直升机和无人机，打头阵的可能是自由俄罗斯军团（大鹅降兵）。目前当地俄联邦正在进入紧急状态，当地居民纷纷避难。地堡男孩5月9号红场阅兵时把“特别军事行动”称为“卫国战争”，没想到一语成谶。这里必须称赞一下地堡男孩的天马行空的军事才能，把“特别军事行动”打成“卫国战争”，绝对配的上“卧龙凤雏”的称号。

还有要特别注意一个问题。普里格金表示，他5月 25 日就要把阵地交给军方。大家看一下战局，现在瓦格纳是在市中心地区猛攻，想要完成自己拿下巴赫穆特的誓言。但是小乌军队在郊区高地对着大鹅国防军猛攻，左右夹击看起来很像一个口袋。贼配军好像意识到了这种危险性，他抓紧时间宣布完成任务，似乎很想带着这种交代得过去的胜利，拿上工程款，拍屁股走人，尽快撤离这个危险的口袋，把烫手山芋交给正规军。

在16 日凌晨大鹅从海陆空分别向乌克兰首都打出了 18 枚导弹，被爱国者百分之百的拦截。地堡男孩表示不服， 18 日俄军再次向乌克兰城市发射了 30 枚导弹袭击，据统计，这回 30 枚导弹中有 22 枚 kh101和 kh555，6 枚匕首， 2 枚伊斯坎德尔k。结果仅有29 枚导弹被拦截，很明显，这次打脸没有上次疼，为地堡男孩挽回不少面子。

正在日本广岛参加G7峰会的拜登 19 日告诉其他领导人，美国将支持其盟友对乌克兰飞行员进行 F16 战机的培训。这一决定标志着拜登态度的明显转变。

此外，英国、荷兰、丹麦、比利时组成援乌同盟，组成基金用于维护升级援乌F16。芬兰、加拿大等有意向援助F18大黄蜂，正寻求美批准。另据消息称，日表示有意援助F15 重型战斗机。波罗的海与波兰等国无力援助西式战机，表示可以将所有米格 29 全部援助乌。F16如能与F15 搭配使用，星空下将无可匹敌。

说到这鹅粉肯定不同意，一定会吹俄制战机有多么亮眼的数据，和同时代美制战机相比，速度、航程、机动性都有更佳表现。各大航展上经常大秀眼镜蛇机动、落叶飘矢量发动机。可是这么优秀的飞机，为什么 40 年来没有击落过一架美制战斗机，相反自己却被击落了上百架？

随着泽连斯基的闪电外交攻势，欧洲国家正在快速的改变自己对大鹅的态度，比如说英国就向乌克兰作出了决定性军事胜利的保证。最离谱的那还是法国政府，不仅向泽连斯基保证了绝对的支持，而且还直接对大鹅动起手来。按照法国巴黎的要求，大鹅的运动员可以参加这次奥运会，但是必须得满足一个条件：以难民身份申请参加。什么玩意儿？难民身份？你这就典型的杀伤力不强，侮辱性极大。你这也太侮辱人了。大帝，听我的，咱不去，咱不受那份侮辱。哈哈！

乌克兰的人员损失究竟有多大？这个话题，各方的说法相差太远。

换句话来说，权威靠谱的答案太少，当然，讲这个话题还有一个重要原因，这个问题跟未来俄乌冲突如何结束密切相关。

先说说我对乌克兰人员损失的一些基本看法，讲几个我认为相对权威靠谱的数字。

第一个数字是乌军的总司令扎卢日内，2023年1月21日访美的时候讲到的。扎卢日内在访美的时候，当时他对美国人说：开战以来，乌军总共遭受了25.7万人“不可挽回的损失”。

扎卢日内的这个表述很有意思，什么叫“不可挽回的损失”呢？想一想，阵亡的这是不可挽回的，受伤的只要伤愈能够重返前线，应该是还可以挽回的，而不可挽回的受伤者应该是伤重致残无法重返前线的这部分的伤者。当然，被俘的也有一部分回不来，这也是不可挽回的。

这三项的人员损失加在一起，扎卢日内给的总数是25.7万。注意这个时间是今年的1月下旬。

第二个我认为有参考价值的数字是以色列的摩萨德提供的。摩萨德是世界著名的情报机构，虽然以色列这个国家不大，但是他的情报机构摩萨德大名鼎鼎，和美国的中情局，苏联的克格勃，英国的军情六处，并称为世界四大间谍机构。

以色列的摩萨德给出的数字是多少呢？死亡15.7万人，受伤23.4万人，被俘1.7万人。摩萨德这个数字是截止到冲突爆发一周年，和扎卢日内讲的数字基本上时间差不多。

如果我们把摩萨德这个数字，做一个简单核算，受伤人数当中如果1/3属于伤重无法归队，损失的人数应该是15.7万，加被俘的1.7万，再加将近8万人。如果做一个比对，摩萨德提供的数字和扎卢日内那个说法相当的接近，而且它们截止的时间也相当的接近，说明这个数字是比较可靠，比较靠谱的。

除了这两个数字之外，还有一个数字具有较强的参考意义，那就是乌克兰的国防部长列兹尼科夫的说法。

列兹尼科夫曾经说，自2022年冲突爆发以来，乌克兰进行了9轮动员，一共征招了95万人。目前乌克兰依然有穿制服的人大约100多万。列兹尼科夫讲这个话应该是在去年的年底讲的，从列兹尼科夫这段话，我们可以做一点推算，冲突爆发前，乌克兰军队的总兵力大约是25万多人，算上一些民兵和地方武装的话，应该是30多万。

到2022年底，经过9轮征召，征招了95万人，加上原有的30多万，应该是将近130万人。可是列兹尼科夫讲目前还有100多万穿制服的人，显然原有人数，征召人数之和与现有的穿制服的人相比，差了将近30万人，这将近30万人哪去了，应该就是扎卢日内所说的那种“不可挽回的损失”。

从这三个信息的来源看，要么是来自于乌克兰官方，要么是来自权威的情报机构，而且三个数字相对比的话基本上差不多。得出的结论是到今年二三月份，也就是冲突爆发一周年的时候，乌克兰的兵员损失大约30万左右。

按照各方相关的消息，目前在乌东前线，乌克兰还有各类的武装人员50万人，每天的伤亡平均在数百人。

讲到这，前面讲的这些数字都是乌克兰兵员的损失，但是我在最初讲的是乌克兰人员的损失，人员的损失不仅仅包括兵员了，还包括人口的流失，那么从人员损失的角度大概是一个什么样子呢？

乌克兰的战前人口大约4300万人，冲突爆发后有800万人外逃跑出去了，另外还有900多万人留在了俄占区，或者是进入了俄罗斯。

这样一算，乌克兰控制区现在实有的人口应该是2000多万人，2000多万人，刨去一半的女性，还剩一千多万。一千多万，20-40岁的人口应该占1/3左右，这样算下来大约是360万。

按照一般的人力动员的规律，能够动员入伍的占应招年龄段男性的1/3。你不能把这些男人都拉去当兵，因为你还要搞生产，还要维持日常的生活和社会的运转。所以顶多是1/3。1/3是多少呢？是120万。

如果照这个推理看，乌克兰国内的动员基本上已经达到极限了，因为我们看到乌克兰的第10轮的动员，征招人员的年限已经放宽到了60岁了，这说明人力资源已经达到极限。再往下走，人力资源就会枯竭了。

为什么要讲这些东西？有人说讲伤亡可以看出战场上谁得谁失，谁赚谁赔。其实得、失、赚、赔，都是小事，因为和冲突战争的结果相比，伤亡损失有的时候可以不计代价。但在当前俄乌冲突这个大背景下，乌克兰的人员损失却是一个重要的衡量指标。什么衡量指标呢？是看这场冲突会不会结束的一个重要值。

一场冲突要结束，怎么样才会结束呢？首先是双方有结束的政治意愿，现在看这个意愿双方都不强烈。

前不久中国特使去了基辅，见了泽连斯基，泽连斯基第一句话表示了两层意思，第一个是绝不接受土地换和平，第二个是不接受任何形式的冻结冲突。

这两个说法从哪来的？土地换和平这个事儿，应该是针对美国中情局局长伯恩斯而言的。因为2023年1月中旬的时候，美国中情局局长伯恩斯受拜登的指派去了乌克兰和俄罗斯，当时试探性的提了一个方案，就是乌克兰用20%的领土换取和平。

当然，伯恩斯的这个说法只是代表了美国政坛当中主和派的意思，在美国的对外政策当中并没有形成最后的优势。即使如此，这个东西也被乌克兰方面被泽连斯基拒绝了。泽连斯基跟我们特使说的这话，把这条路堵死了。

第二个，不接受任何形式的冻结冲突。这句话什么意思呢？之前我曾经说过，俄乌冲突结束，最可能的形式是像朝鲜战争那样，签一个停火协议，而不是和平协议。因为和平协议需要解决的法律问题太多，需要确定的东西太多，很难签下来，怎么办呢？我先停火，停止冲突就地停火，剩下的问题慢慢谈，这就是所谓的冻结冲突。

现在，泽连斯基明确表示了不接受任何形式的冻结冲突。这两句话，反映的是泽连斯基和乌克兰方面对于停止冲突的政治意愿趋近于零，乌克兰方面趋近于零，俄罗斯方面自然也不可能主动的停止冲突，这条路就堵死了。

剩下要停火，只有一条路，就是有一方实在打不下去了，这个问题取决于三个方面：第一，钱；第二，武器；第三，人。从钱的方面来说，乌克兰的状态比俄罗斯要差得多。

乌克兰是什么状态呢？乌克兰政府的正常运转，目前每年大概存在400-600亿欧元的缺口。目前，欧盟每个月给乌克兰提供的财政资源是50亿欧元，12个月正好是600亿，完全可以把乌克兰的这个缺口填上。所以缺钱的问题，不至于让乌克兰把这个仗打不下去。

可能有人说，现在是这样，将来欧盟能够长期持续下去吗？有一个数字可供参考。

目前被冻结的俄罗斯央行的资产大约3000亿欧元，另外还有被冻结的个人资产200亿欧元，也就是说不用欧盟自己掏钱，单是这一笔钱按照每年600亿欧的速度，可以花5年没有问题。那么乌克兰不会缺钱，会不会缺武器呢？

现在美国和欧洲提供或者承诺提供给乌克兰的军事援助总额已经接近1000亿美元，按照这个标准的话再打下去，打个一两年应该是没有问题。

对俄罗斯来说武器不用我解释了，不会缺，剩下去最大有可能让仗打不下去的因素是什么呢？是人。在这个问题上，尤其是乌克兰更加的明显，毕竟俄罗斯战前人口是乌克兰的三倍，而目前甚至可以达到6倍。

所以，评估推测乌克兰的人力损失，可以大体上判断出这场冲突还能持续多久，乌克兰还能够撑多久。

如果按照我前面说的那个损失数和目前的损失速率的话，乌克兰打到今年年底应该是问题不大的。

但是如果2024年接着打，在兵源上就会有问题，就会出现人力的危机。有没有解决办法呢？当然有解决办法。国外的军人、雇佣军大量的进入。

有这么一个说法，说现在乌克兰境内的波兰籍的武装人员至少有4万人，其他各国国籍的武装人员超过1万人，这个数准不准确我不敢说，但是有大量的外籍武装人员进入乌克兰，加入乌克兰作战，这是不争的事实。

但是，外籍雇佣兵能不能够大量进入乌克兰，替乌克兰人替乌克兰军队打赢这场仗呢，我觉着问题也很大，因为外籍武装人员大量进入，势必会导致冲突的外溢和升级。这个问题欧洲愿不愿意看到？美国愿不愿意看到？恐怕这是一个大问题。