Spoiler G7搅局G7
The G7 summit held in Japan this time has a vivid feeling of G20.
Little Japan and his American father have made up their minds. The main theme of this G7 summit is how to deal with China, and it will be a "dragon slaying conference".
Canada doesn't have a backbone, and it just follows the big brother in the United States, and I will do whatever the big brother does.
The United Kingdom has its own ideas, and it still closely follows the United States in the overall situation.
Italy is purely here to make soy sauce. Before the meeting was over, Prime Minister Meloni ran away because of domestic floods.
Germany was forced to follow the United States, hey, what to do, there are still tens of thousands of American troops watching covetously, gritted their teeth, and followed.
As far as France is careful and thoughtful, Ge Laozi, I just finished chatting with China, this time I will follow your old Biden to sing anti-China tunes, no way; besides, my proud France wants to be independent in strategic diplomacy. No, I have to find something for you old boy, hehe.
Brother I arrange for you to go to G7
How to find trouble, find someone to disrupt the situation, who is it? who is coming
What can disrupt the situation the most?
Yes, Ukrainian Zelensky, he is here, who of you dares to neglect? Besides, didn't you Biden call the old fairy Modi, did the driver just want to ask him about the "second-hand dealer"?
However, this matter requires a sudden attack, and the cooperation of the eastern powers is required.
India: Don't look for me, I'm doing well with Russia, second-hand oil makes more money.
Macron: The Eastern Powers didn’t mention you, so let’s go.
Thus, we see
Before the G7 summit, Zelensky announced that he would participate in the video, so we saw Zelensky sitting on the special plane of the French government, went to the summit of the Arab League and bluffed, which made Saudi Arabia stand up to mediate between Russia and Russia. Wu clashed.
The French special plane is fast
Suddenly, Zelensky boarded the special plane of the French government and rushed eastward, crossed the Indian Ocean, traversed the entire southern part of China, and arrived in Hiroshima, Japan in the fastest way and speed, and suddenly attacked the G7 summit. You discuss the conflict between Russia and Ukraine , how can I do without the presence of the protagonist?
The little days were confused, what to do with this, so they hurriedly arranged security and reception, the little days had an unbelievable expression on their faces, and justified themselves to the media.
The old Biden is suffering, the hearts of the people are scattered, and the team is not easy to lead. The French Gallic chicken is for me. If there is no way to come, they will come.
As a result, the G7 summit had not had many meeting days, so it had to squeeze out one day, and each country had a separate meeting with the driver.
So, we saw the picture of the old fairy Modi and the driver "looking at each other". And I personally will definitely try my best." Can Zelensky eat it?
I'll give you a roti, do you want to eat it?
So, we saw the French little Ma secretly posted on the social platform: "For peace, unity and the earth".
Biden brought Brazil, Vietnam, and Indonesia to let them understand his intentions and see how I can handle China. Come and play with me. After the driver came, the three countries said they were fooled. Isn't this cheating me?
So, we saw that Brazilian Lula did not talk to Zelensky throughout the whole process.
The small days are sad enough, the G7 summit was held, the domestic people opposed it, and their own police were inspected by the American father, and Zelensky came to disrupt the situation, and they agreed to deal with China together, and the French, you come out and explain one time!
Frenchman: Ah, sorry, I went to visit Mongolia, goodbye. Turning his face to look at the Eastern Great Country, the Eastern Great Country silently nodded half a thumbs up.
Now there are two strange things, which are not only abnormal, but also violate the basic logic. Generally speaking, we all know that when interest rates are tightened, it is difficult for the stock market to rise, because raising interest rates will tighten liquidity. Without the promotion of funds, the stock market will naturally not rise. On the contrary, interest rate cuts are loose liquidity, and the capital market is often easier to rise.
But now it is just the opposite. One is that the United States is leading Europe and some other developed countries to raise interest rates. In theory, their interest rate hikes will tighten liquidity. Then the stock markets of these countries should not be easy to rise. But now the stock markets of European countries, and even the stock markets of Japan and India, have successively reached new highs in stages and even in history.
On the other side, our side has been cutting RRR and interest rates since last year. In theory, this is loosening and releasing liquidity to the market. Low, not much up. Some people say that this is the urination of A shares, but is it really just like that?
Not only does this matter seem abnormal, but the comparison between the two makes many domestic investors feel particularly uncomfortable. Why do foreign interest rates increase to a new high, but we are loose but not rising? Today I want to use this abnormal phenomenon to explore the essence behind it. What is it?
The nature of US interest rate hikes
First of all, at the financial level, whether it is raising interest rates or cutting interest rates, it should be said that these are different operations under different financial cycles. Then the meaning behind it must be different. I have analyzed in the past why we not only cannot raise interest rates when the United States raises interest rates, but instead have to cut RRR and interest rates.
The core reason for this is that the U.S. dollar is the central currency of the current international monetary and financial system. So when the United States is raising interest rates, it is actually taking away the liquidity of the world. At this time, if we also raise interest rates at the same time, there will be a big risk, that is, the risk of asset bubbles collapsing.
Why does this happen?
Because on the one hand, when the United States raises interest rates, global dollar capital will return to the United States. At the same time, if we want to avoid capital concentration and rapid return, and follow up with interest rate hikes, then for the domestic capital market, it will form a double tightening . One is the austerity brought about by international capital outflows, and the other is the austerity brought about by raising interest rates.
Then under the double tightening, the liquidity of the entire capital market will be drained in large quantities. At this time, assets with more bubbles face greater risks of collapse. So under the pressure of this kind of collapse, there are often two choices.
One is to raise interest rates accordingly, which can stabilize the exchange rate, but at the same time put pressure on domestic asset prices. Another option is not to raise interest rates, or even cut interest rates, to stabilize domestic asset prices, but at the same time the exchange rate will face depreciation pressure.
In this case, the reason why two different choices are made depends on the specific situation in each country to make a choice. If the domestic asset price bubble is not large, you can choose to raise interest rates accordingly. The other is that if there are enough foreign exchange reserves, interest rates may not be raised, or even lowered. This can not only stabilize domestic asset prices, but also stabilize the exchange rate through foreign exchange reserves.
Very simple, we chose the latter one. At the same time, Türkiye, which is a maverick, also chose the latter. But Turkey does not have as many foreign exchange reserves as we do, which puts pressure on the Turkish lira to depreciate. After the depreciation of the lira, it will also push up the import price of energy and commodities in Turkey, which in turn will push up the domestic inflation in Turkey.
Fundamentally speaking, from the perspective of the United States, he definitely hopes that everyone will follow the first path, that is, everyone will follow along to raise interest rates. In this way, the whole world forms a comprehensive double austerity, that is, international financial austerity and domestic financial austerity.
As long as this step is reached, the United States will continue to raise interest rates sharply and rapidly, and the whole world will follow suit, quickly draining the liquidity of the market, causing a large number of asset bubbles to collapse. US dollars for bargain hunting.
So many people will have a question, when the United States is tightening, including Europe is also tightening, why did their domestic asset prices not collapse? Especially the bubbles in European and American stock markets are facing great valuation pressure.
This is a key point that we need to see the essence through the phenomenon.
Changing Expectations Behind U.S. Rate Hike Failure
In fact, this cycle of interest rate hikes in the United States has indeed put some pressure on asset prices around the world. Because of the return of the US dollar, a large amount of liquidity was taken away. But this kind of pressure is not the same for the United States and other developed countries.
Let's start with the United States.
As far as the United States is concerned, raising interest rates does not necessarily tighten the liquidity within the United States as it does under normal circumstances. This is a very uncommon phenomenon. Because under normal circumstances, raising interest rates will tighten liquidity, but the difference between the United States and other countries is that the United States uses US dollars.
As the international central currency, the U.S. dollar will flow out of the U.S. and abroad in large quantities during the easing cycle. Then when the United States raised interest rates, the dollar began to flow back. Although the Fed's interest rate hike will cause some domestic liquidity tightening in the United States, at the same time, as a large number of international dollars flow back to the United States, domestic liquidity in the United States will not form a serious tightening.
Regarding this, we can look at the data of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase account, which supports this. That is, after the US interest rate hike expectations were released, a large amount of dollars flowed back to the United States before the official rate hike began. The size of the Fed’s overnight reverse repurchase account has rapidly increased from less than US$100 billion to US$2.5 trillion at the peak.
Up to now, the U.S. has raised interest rates to 5%, and the size of the Fed’s overnight reverse repurchase account has remained at 2.2 trillion. This is the result of the return of global dollars to the U.S., and domestic liquidity in the U.S. is still loose.
So we see that after the United States started the interest rate hike cycle, domestic inflation in the United States has continued to remain high. In a way, this reflects that domestic liquidity in the United States is not tight. But it is different in Europe. On the one hand, the United States has raised interest rates, and on the other hand, there is the need for capital hedging brought about by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Under the two forces, European funds flowed out in large quantities. This also caused the stock markets of European countries to fall sharply.
We look at the stock markets of European countries, which experienced three sharp falls last year, in March, June and September. The corresponding behind this is that in March, the United States began to raise interest rates, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out at the same time. In June, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 75 basis points, while Europe's energy crisis worsened. In September, the Federal Reserve continued to strengthen expectations for interest rate hikes, while Russia started some mobilization.
But by October last year, the European and American stock markets basically bottomed out in the mid-term, and then began to gradually rebound. There have been two major turning points in this. They were in October last year and March this year. So especially the European stock market, under the dual pressure of the US interest rate hike and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, why can it also achieve two upward turning points?
Behind this should be said that there are two major expected changes. The changes in these two major expectations have something to do with Switzerland.
The first one was in October last year, which broke out successively, the thunder crisis of the British pension fund, and the thunder crisis of Credit Suisse in Switzerland. These two crises have sent a clear signal to the United States, that is, the allies of the United States are almost unable to bear such a rapid and substantial interest rate increase.
Then there was the first adjustment in expectations, which finally landed after the Fed raised interest rates in November. That is, November will be the last time the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at such a high rate of 75 basis points, and subsequent interest rate hikes will gradually reduce the rate hikes. For the financial market, this means that the most dangerous moment in the entire interest rate hike cycle has passed.
Then the second expected major change is that in March this year, Silicon Valley Bank of the United States went bankrupt, and at the same time Credit Suisse once again exposed the thunder crisis. After Credit Suisse exposed the thunderstorm crisis, the market is still rumored that Deutsche Bank may also experience a thunderstorm.
There is no doubt that whether it is the mine explosion crisis within the United States or the explosion of these major allies of the United States, it will cause a collective collapse in the entire Western world. This would defeat the entire financial austerity effort in the United States. At this time, the Federal Reserve made another move, which changed the expectations of the financial markets of the entire Western countries.
After the Swiss Credit Suisse explosion, the Federal Reserve joined forces with the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England to conduct centralized currency swaps. Behind this move by the Federal Reserve, there is a clear meaning that the United States, at least in the short term, will cover up the financial crisis of its allies. Conversely, the United States will not rely on killing allies to maintain its own survival in the short term.
For Europe, Japan, the United Kingdom, these traditional allies of the United States, this is a major benefit, and it is also a very important expectation that they will be safe in the short term.
What followed was that their stock market, after a correction, started a new round of rise, because they didn't have much to worry about. This is also the main reason why the stock markets in Europe, the UK, and even Japan are constantly hitting new highs and rising.
It is the change of these two expectations that has also changed the assessment of risk in the financial market. So in addition to the change in risk expectations, there is actually a question to be answered, that is, where will their money come from under the austerity? And this is the key to seeing the essence through the phenomenon.
When something goes wrong, there must be a demon
We can roughly see some clues in the operation of the Federal Reserve after the bankruptcy of banks in the United States. We often say that when things go wrong, there must be demons. Under normal financial tightening, it is impossible to have a large amount of funds to promote a sharp rise in the stock market. Conversely, if the stock market is still hitting new highs, there must be funds driving it.
Where do these funds come from? The behavior of the United States has already given the answer.
As we said earlier, the Fed’s interest rate hike is to tighten the liquidity of the world. In fact, there is still half a sentence behind it, which is the Fed’s shrinking balance sheet, which is the real tightening of the domestic liquidity in the United States.
In fact, since the United States started raising interest rates last year, although the rate and pace of interest rate hikes have been very fast, the Federal Reserve has stated at the beginning that it will simultaneously carry out a monthly balance sheet reduction plan of 95 billion U.S. dollars, but it has never been uncompromising from beginning to end. The deduction has been executed.
In other words, the United States has never thought about tightening its domestic liquidity. In other words, raising interest rates in the United States to control domestic inflation is nothing more than a pretense to deceive the public and nothing more. Because the effect of shrinking the balance sheet and tightening liquidity will be better, but the United States must not do this, because it is likely to cause a real collapse of the US stock market.
Not only did the United States not dare to tighten its domestic liquidity, but after March this year, because the interest rate level in the United States reached a high level of about 5%, American banks have gone bankrupt one after another. So in an emergency, the Federal Reserve engaged in a show operation, which was to raise interest rates while providing targeted releases to US financial institutions.
This is tantamount to the United States raising interest rates in the joint developed countries to drain the world's liquidity, while opening another hole to secretly release water to its domestic financial institutions. So now that the United States has covered the financial risks of its allies, Europe, Japan, the United Kingdom, and even India, behind the rising stock markets, are they also secretly releasing water to financial institutions?
On the other hand, on our side, we are neither allies of the United States, nor even with the United States. Once there is a liquidity crisis on our side due to US austerity and capital outflow, it is impossible for the United States to come to us for currency Swap, to provide us with liquidity support.
So from our point of view, how should we deal with it? The best way is for the capital market to fluctuate at a low level. Because at this time, if we also rise sharply or even hit new highs like the stock markets in Europe, Japan and India, it will only create opportunities for more speculative funds to escape from high positions.
And this is the core guiding spirit when investing in the tightening cycle in the United States. As long as you understand this principle at the macro level, you will neither envy others' new highs nor blame yourself.
Because in the tightening cycle of the United States, those countries that are not allies of the United States have only one core task, which is to save their lives, save their lives, and save their lives. There is only one corresponding approach, which is to prevent risks, prevent risks, and prevent risks.
High prices are only good for sellers, and low prices are good for buyers. Except for real estate, our valuation of other asset prices is not high. The largest asset management institution in Europe, Amunicio Asset Management, which manages 2.1 trillion euros in assets, is selling US assets and switching to Chinese assets.
So from a macro point of view, is it better for the stock market to be at a high level, or is it better to be at a low level? I believe that after sorting out the whole logic, everyone will understand why the stock market has not risen sharply while we are loosening. .
It’s just that there are fewer and fewer new cakes in this world, and everyone’s growth rate is slowing down, so it is inevitable to shift from an incremental game to a stock game.
Looking back on today many years later, we are likely to sigh: So today is the beginning of drastic changes.
Because a new system may have arrived.
In the long river of history, the rise of the new system is always closely followed by the decline of the old system. The decline of the old system means the collapse of the old chain of interests, and it means that new forces can start to fill the vacuum of the old forces, thus arranging their own power.
After the collapse of the Eastern Han Dynasty system, Yuan Shao and Cao Cao began to dominate the north; after the collapse of the Sui Dynasty system, Li Yuan and his son began to raise troops from Taiyuan; after the collapse of the British and French colonial systems, the United States and the Soviet Union began to extend their small hands into the Middle East and Africa...
This law, ancient, modern, Chinese and foreign, is absolutely inevitable.
Today, a new system with China at its core is rising across the Eurasian continent. Let's take a look at what is happening.
The loneliness of foreign companies
What is manifested in the outermost layer is the alternation of the old and the new in the brand system: foreign brands are declining, while domestic brands are rising.
In the field of clothing, Adidas' performance in China has declined for seven consecutive quarters, and its old rival Nike has not fared much better, maintaining a decline of four quarters. In stark contrast, Anta's performance has reached twice that of Adidas, and Xtep ushered in a round of 37.45% surge.
In the automotive sector, sales in the first quarter speak for themselves. BYD overwhelmed Volkswagen, Honda, and Toyota to become China's largest brand in terms of sales.
What is more special is the field of beauty and skin care. "Estee Lauder", which has been looked at for a long time, began to dive. Sales fell by 12%, and net profit fell by 72%. For such a big setback, Estee Lauder’s official explanation is: “Although the passenger flow in Hainan has exceeded the level of last year, the conversion rate of tourists is low, which has caused retailers to consume inventory faster than expected and reduce replenishment orders.”
Translate: Although there are many tourists in the duty-free shop in Hainan, there are fewer people who buy Estee Lauder.
Estee Lauder finally attributed the failure in Asia to the "epidemic and corresponding supervision". But the face is that in Asia, Estee Lauder's sales only dropped by 1%, but in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa where there is no supervision, Estee Lauder directly fell by 26%.
Moreover, China's epidemic control measures have already been relaxed. From January to February 2023, the sales of beauty and skin care products are unprecedentedly booming-the Hainan duty-free shop is showing a crowded trend, and there is no place to go to the toilet. I even asked my friend to bring me a bottle of perfume from there.
Everyone just doesn't buy you Estee Lauder, that's all.
In fact, there are many foreign brands with the same fate as Estee Lauder. They may not have high-end technical content, but their positioning is often relatively high-end-the kind that the poor can’t afford, the rich can’t look down on, but the middle-class people flock to it.
But now the situation has changed, people are not spending as much money as before, and the publicity and image of domestic brands have also come up... The good days of foreign brands are coming to an end.
In the final analysis, this is a process of "disenchantment".
A female friend of mine put it bluntly: the quality of domestic brands has caught up now, and they are willing to spend money on marketing, and many KOLs have been found to be "just bad money" - in the end everyone thinks, Your foreign brand is just mediocre.
The reason for this "disenchantment" is that the strength of China's manufacturing industry has improved.
Another friend of mine is now looking for BYD Han when he buys a car, and other brands don't work well. Why, because BYD launched the "Looking Up" series of products that everyone looks up to, because BYD's cars are indeed getting more and more beautiful. In fact, it’s not just Dizi, the computer he bought recently is also from China-made Shenzhou—in his words, the price/performance ratio beats “alien”.
When technology and workmanship become more and more excellent, the brand will naturally become high-end, because consumers will make choices.
The changes behind the three data
The change in brand selection is the most superficial, because this has reached the end consumers. The front-end changes are actually more profound.
The last three statistics are quite scary.
The first data is the change of China's export data to different countries from January to April this year.
For the first time this year, the share of China's exports to countries along the "Belt and Road" has exceeded the share of exports to the United States, Europe, and Japan.
The second data is the cross-border settlement data of RMB.
In March this year, the proportion of cross-border settlement in China surpassed that of the U.S. dollar for the first time.
The third data is China's surplus and deficit data.
From January to April this year, the export volume increased by 10.6% year-on-year, while the import volume only increased by 0.02%.
Add one more data: According to Xinhua News Agency, in terms of export products, in the first four months (2023), my country exported 4.44 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, accounting for 57.9% of the total export value. Among them, driven by the export of new energy vehicles, the export of automobiles increased by 120.3% year-on-year.
When the four data are combined together, there is a picture:
My biggest clients are those "Belt and Road" countries.
The currency I use most is RMB.
The category I sell the most is mechanical and electrical products,
And what I sell is very high-end,
Mainly new energy vehicles and lithium batteries.
Overall, I'm now buying less and selling more.
To sum it up: a transnational economic system that does not include the United States, does not use the US dollar, and has taken shape. This system is based on the "Belt and Road" and has China as the core. The RMB is the main currency of this system. China is the main currency in this system. The output is industrial products represented by mechanical and electrical products, and the input is various resources represented by mineral oil.
Have you felt the shock of the new system? Without relying on Europe, America and Japan, we can still live well.
And it is best not to rely on Europe, America and Japan - the situation in Europe and the United States is not very good now. If Europe and the United States are still our major customers, then they will soften, and we will have no way to harden them. Fortunately, we have changed. We have turned the countries along the “Belt and Road” into big customers. It doesn’t matter if Europe and the United States are soft.
Most importantly, although the nature of customers has changed, the total volume has still increased. In the first quarter of 2023 (January-March), exports were 5.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.4% over the same period in 2022. In 2019, the figure was 3.77 trillion yuan.
Anyway, who's money is not earned?
China is filling the vacuum
Now that China's new system has risen, theoretically, there must be a vacuum that has been filled.
As for the matter of "filling the vacuum", the most typical one is Russia.
Since February last year, when Russia's "special military operation" shocked the world, European and American companies began to collectively withdraw from Russia.
The sudden departure of European and American companies has left a huge vacuum in the Russian market. In this case, who will fill the vacuum is a very simple question.
There are only a few economic highlands in the world, and Europe and the United States have withdrawn. Could it be that you expect Africa and South America to fill in the holes?
So what we see is: According to data from the Ministry of Commerce of China, the bilateral trade volume between China and Russia will reach a record US$190.271 billion in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 29.3%. China has been Russia's largest trading partner for 13 consecutive years. In 2022, China's export of mechanical and electrical products to Russia will increase by 9% year-on-year, high-tech products will increase by 51%, and automobiles and parts will increase by 45%. After-sales service of related products has become an important part of China-Russia service trade cooperation. By the end of 2022, the yuan's share in Russia's import settlements has jumped from 4% at the beginning of the year to 23%, and its share in export settlements has soared from 0.5% to 16%.
Before the "special military operation", the largest mobile phone brand in Russia was Samsung, the second largest was Xiaomi, the third was Apple, and the fourth was Realme (owned by Oppo). But now, Samsung and Apple have basically disappeared from the Russian market, and Xiaomi and Realme have directly swallowed nearly 80% of the market share.
The situation in the auto market is similar. Of course, Lada in Russia is the best, and its share has directly increased from 22% to 28%. Chery and Great Wall from China have both benefited from 3% of the market share to 6%. , Geely also changed from 1% to 3%.
The retreat of foreign car companies directly caused the market share of Chinese auto brands in the Russian market to jump from 8% to 17%.
In this link, the most tragic ones are the Koreans.
Samsung's original share of more than 40% in the Russian market was directly cleared, and Hyundai and Kia's original 23% share in the Russian market was reduced to 19%.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Korean predecessors spent decades building up the land, and the younger generations abandoned it like a shoestring, and said no to it... It's really "the heart of the poor is not hurt".
Moreover, the Koreans have been "unfavorable" recently, and the export value of almost all categories except auto parts has fallen sharply by double digits. The export of liquid crystal products fell by 62.3%, the export of home appliances fell by 44.7%, the export of wireless communication equipment fell by 40.3%, and the semiconductor fell by 33.8%. Auto parts are good, and they also fell by 5.3%.
After all, what business do you Koreans have to do with the ongoing disputes between Russia and Ukraine? Well now, the Russian market, which took years for Xiaomi and Chery to win, can now lie down and win. South Korea itself is a country that is extremely dependent on exports. Now that you have given up your business for many years, you really don't know the decision-making mechanism behind this.
After decades of developing feelings, I haven't even developed my wisdom. I'd better go back and read "Six Kingdoms" more.
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The "Three New Things" of the New System
Supporting China's new system is of course China's strong industrial strength, because we are the largest industrial country and almost package the production of most products in the world.
Among the vast Chinese manufacturing industry, the most eye-catching ones are the "three new products" - new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar batteries.
Why are these three the most eye-catching? Because I stepped on the pulse of the times.
In fact, all countries are now transitioning to new energy sources. After all, the price of oil is here, and the streets of the United States are full of Japanese cars that are famous for their fuel efficiency. Sooner or later, everyone will switch to new energy sources - this is the basic condition for China's "three new" to rise in the global market.
Among them, the most ruthless is the automobile industry. China's new energy vehicles have become the "superstar" that drives exports, and BYD is the well-deserved king.
In the first quarter of 2023, China exported 248,000 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 1.1 times. Among them, the BYD family exported 43,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 12.8 times, and it is true that a critical hit hurts.
In fact, it is not just BYD. Geely's exports also increased by 53% in the first quarter, and the growth rate of new energy exports reached more than 75%.
It can be said that the entire Chinese new energy vehicle industry is making efforts.
And don't think that this is just a "flash in the pan". The issue that BYD is more worried about now is "capacity"-making cars is not a problem, the problem is whether it can be transported to foreign countries.
So BYD has built its own "fleet" very rarely: Guangzhou Shipbuilding International, a subsidiary of China Shipbuilding Group, said that it will have a good start in 2023 and successfully effective the construction order of two 7000-car dual-fuel PCTC (car carrier) of BYD Group.
According to news on the Internet, BYD plans to spend 5 billion to build 8 car carriers, 6 of which are basically confirmed, and the remaining 2 will depend on the situation.
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I really want to give Wang Chuanfu the title of "Chuanfu New Energy Electromagnetic Demonstrating Sage and True King".
Benefiting from the big win in the auto industry, other industries quickly followed suit, such as lithium batteries and solar cells.
In the first quarter of 2023, the export value of lithium batteries was 15.969 billion US dollars, with a total of 837 million exported. The amount increased by 79.9% year-on-year, while the quantity decreased by 7.3%. In other words, in one year, the average price of a lithium battery has increased by US$10.
The export of solar cells is also very fierce, although the attention may not be as great as that of lithium batteries. But the quantity is very large - China's solar cell exports exceeded 90 billion yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 23.6%.
New energy trams, lithium batteries, solar batteries... These are all products that were born and developed in Europe and the United States, but they all flourished in China.
No way, who let us Chinese be best at mass production and cost reduction.
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International Responsibilities of Manufacturing Powers
After not relying on Europe, the United States and Japan, the main engines of China's exports are several groups including countries along the "Belt and Road"—ASEAN, Africa, Russia, and Latin America.
Of course, the market changes in Russia are still unique, after all, this is an event dominated by political factors. However, changes in markets such as ASEAN are purely a reflection of China's manufacturing influence.
Before discussing the influence of China's manufacturing industry, we must first clarify a fact: China's reform and opening up has indeed grown rapidly in strength for so many years. After rapid development, it is impossible for us to do those labor-intensive low-end manufacturing industries anymore, so we will definitely transfer some low-end industries to places where labor is cheaper.
Low-end industries will definitely transfer from well-developed areas to less-developed areas-this is the basic law of economic development.
It is also because of the existence of this law that China's export patterns to ASEAN, Russia, Latin America, and Africa are different.
Let’s look at ASEAN first. Among the four major regions, ASEAN is the place with the best economic development. The combination of several countries ranks fifth in the world, second only to the United States, China, Japan, and Germany.
However, everyone knows the situation in ASEAN. Although the scale of the economy is large, the level of development is not high and uneven. The per capita GDP of Singapore can be compared with that of Western European countries, but countries like Myanmar and Cambodia are basically the same. We can only share a room with players from the African region.
In short, ASEAN as a whole is in a state of political stability and far away from war, but the industry is too backward to make money.
In fact, Africa and South America are similar, but they are not as rich as the ASEAN bloc.
There are so many countries in Africa, many of which are still in a state of warlords, and there is no way to develop their economies. The African countries that trade more with China are basically a few relatively stable countries in contemporary Africa - South Africa, Angola, Nigeria and so on.
Under such circumstances, it would be a joke to expect any industry in these regions to be available. In fact, for the vast majority of developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, being able to make money by selling resources is already a "big blessing".
It is precisely because of the existence of this pattern that China's new system has shown its greater significance.
In this new system, China plays the role of an "integrator" - China imports raw materials from these countries and then exports manufactured products to these countries.
It seems to be similar to what Western countries did before, but if you look closely, you will find that what China is doing is completely different—in short, China's new system can be called "immeasurable merit."
Let's look at Vietnam first.
Of course, China exported a large number of industrial products to Vietnam, and the Vietnamese mobile phone rankings were basically "slaughtered" by Chinese brands, but China also exported "raw materials" to Vietnam—Vietnam has undertaken many labor-intensive industries in China, Nowadays, it is also a big garment producing country, but Vietnam's industrial foundation is weak, so it still needs to import fabrics from China.
China does not simply make "scissors" through manufactured products, that is too low-level. We not only sell you manufactured products, I also sell you raw materials for production. You buy my equipment and raw materials to make money, and after making money, you buy my finished products to enjoy.
I make money, and you make money, and everyone has a bright future.
Then there is Africa.
What we see in the news every day is that China has given loans to XX African countries again, and built railways and reservoirs for others... Many netizens always like to put on a high-ranking posture at this time, and then say sadly, "again Putting money on the outside.
This is the cognitive problem of "Summer insects can't speak ice".
In fact, what is the essential difference between Africa and Vietnam? It's just that Vietnam's infrastructure is okay, so we don't need to repair the airport.
Our routine is always: relying on my industrial strength, to provide you with the necessary modern foundation, and then wait for you to grow stronger, and then I will sell you more advanced things.
Why is China so keen on helping third world countries?
Answer: Because we are the largest industrial country in the world, and because we have the largest and most complete industrial system - we help them build infrastructure, and when their economy develops and the people have money, they can then buy our mobile phones and cars , toys, home appliances.
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How much does it cost to help them build railways and airports? When these infrastructures are repaired, and when they have money, they will wear Li Ning Anta, drive Chery BYD, use Xiaomi Oppo, have Gree Haier at home, and play Tencent NetEase in their hands... How much is this?
So if we look at Chinese companies going overseas to different countries, we can see our layout:
Those who go to underdeveloped areas in Africa and Latin America have always been "infrastructure maniacs" such as China Railway, China Construction, and Power Construction, followed by equipment companies such as CRRC, XCMG, and Sany. When your domestic infrastructure is finally complete, and when you start selling ore and agricultural products to make some money, we will start selling you various production lines so that you can upgrade your industry and earn more money, and at the same time sell mobile phones, home appliances, and cars. , Let the people who get rich first in your country buy it...
China is never afraid of your being rich, what is afraid of is that you are too poor to afford my things.
We have mentioned in the article "The Fantastic Journey of "Made in China" in Afghanistan" before: Instant noodles are a high-end delicacy in Afghanistan, and they are good things that are only brought out when visiting relatives and friends and gatherings; the houses of Afghan local tyrants, from tiles to The windows are all imported from China with original packaging; Chinese battery cars have caused a sensation on the streets of Afghanistan; even second-hand solar panels can be in short supply in Afghanistan, supporting the rural electricity market in Afghanistan.
Being able to cover almost all the product needs of these third world countries from primitive to modern is our ability as the largest manufacturing country.
It is our responsibility as the largest manufacturing country to help them develop their economy, let them evolve from primitive to industrialized, and generate demand for higher-level commodities.
at last
Under the existing international order, the distribution of the entire interest is naturally inclined to the developed countries in Europe and the United States in terms of rules. They can sit back and enjoy the benefits, at the top of the food chain, take the most benefits. But today, they are already uncoordinated. The global power status and economic structure do not support the existing, irrational international order and interest structure.
But the United States does not want to change, and Europe still has luck. The United States and its allies are trying to maintain the old world, the old order, and the old pattern that are most beneficial to them. However, in Eurasia, from China to Russia, from Central Asia to the Middle East, and even South America and Africa outside Eurasia, everyone is promoting a new transformation.
The world trend is mighty. History tells us that those who obey will prosper, and history will eventually tell them that those who go against will perish.
日本这次举办的G7峰会，活生生开成了G20的感觉。
小日本跟他美国老爹合计好了，这次G7峰会的主基调就是怎么对付中国，要办成个“屠龙大会”。
加拿大没啥主心骨，一心跟着美国大哥，大哥怎么干我就怎么干。
英国有点自己的心思，大局上还是紧跟美国的。
意大利纯粹就是来打酱油，会还没开完总理梅洛尼就以国内水灾跑路了。
德国被迫跟随美国，哎，怎么办，国内还有好几万美军虎视眈眈的看着呢，咬咬牙，跟。
就法国小心思多，格老子的，我刚跟中国聊完，这次就跟着你老拜登唱反华的调子，不行；再说了，我高傲的法兰西可是要战略外交自主的。不行，非得给你老小子找点事，嘿嘿。
兄弟我安排你去G7
怎么找事，找个人搅局吧，谁呢？谁来了
最能搅局呢？
有了，乌克兰泽连斯基啊，他来了，你们谁敢怠慢？再说了，你拜登不是喊了莫迪老仙吗，司机正好要找他问问“二道贩子”的事情吗？
但是，这事要打个突然袭击，还要东方大国配合一下。
印度：别找我，我跟俄罗斯好着呢，二手油多挣钱啊。
马克龙：东方大国没说你，一边去。
于是，我们看到
G7峰会前，泽连斯基宣布要视频参加，于是我们看到泽连斯基坐着法国政府的专机，跑到阿盟峰会去咋咋呼呼了一顿，惹得沙特都要站出来斡旋俄乌冲突了。
法国专机就是快
突然，泽连斯基坐上法国政府的专机一路向东狂奔，过了印度洋，横穿整个中国南部后，以最快捷的方式和速度到达日本广岛，突然袭击G7峰会，你们商量俄乌冲突问题，没有我这个主角在场怎么行？
小日子懵圈，这这这如何是好，赶紧安排安保和接待，小日子头一脸不可思议，对着媒体自圆其说。
老拜登心里苦啊，人心散了，队伍不好带了，法国高卢鸡这个玩意给我来这一套，没办法来都来了，搞吧。
于是，G7峰会本来就不多的开会天数，不得不挤出一天，每个国家单独会谈司机。
于是，我们看到莫迪老仙与司机“对视”的画面，两人一脸严肃，莫迪老仙画了个油滋滋的印度飞饼给司机吃：“为了解决你们的困难，印度和我个人肯定会尽力”。泽连斯基吃得下去吗？
我给你个印度飞饼你吃不吃
于是，我们看到法国小马哥在社交平台暗搓搓的发布：“为了和平、团结和地球”。
拜登拉来巴西、越南、印尼本来要好好让他们领悟一下他的心意，看看我怎么拿捏中国的，跟我一起玩吧，司机来了后，三国直呼上当，不带这么玩的，这不是坑我吗。
于是，我们看到巴西卢拉全程没有跟泽连斯基会谈。
小日子也够悲催，举办个G7峰会，国内民众反对，自己的警察还被美爹检查，又跑来个泽连斯基搅局，说好的一起对付中国的呢，法国人呢，你出来解释一下！
法国人：啊，对不起，我访问蒙古去了，再会吧。转脸对着东方大国看了一眼，东方大国默默会心的点了半个赞。
现在出现了两个怪事，不但是很反常，而且可以说是违背了基本的逻辑。通常来说呢，我们都知道，一般在加息紧缩的时候，股市是很难涨的，因为加息会紧缩流动性，没有资金的推动，股市自然也就涨不起来。相反的，降息是宽松流动性，资本市场往往也更容易上涨。
但现在恰恰相反，一个是美国带着欧洲和其他一些发达国家在进行加息，理论上来说，他们加息会紧缩流动性。那么这些国家的股市，应该是不太容易上涨的。但现在欧洲国家的股市，甚至日本、印度的股市，都接连创出了阶段性，甚至是历史新高。
那另一边呢，我们这边，从去年以来，不断在进行降准降息，理论上来说，这是在进行宽松，向市场释放流动性，但是奇了个怪了，我们的股市却一直是处于低位，并没有怎么上涨。有人说这就是A股的尿性，但真的只是这样吗？
这个事不仅看起来反常，而且两相一对比，让国内很多做投资的，心里就感觉特别不爽。为什么国外加息加出了新高，我们宽松却就是不涨？今天我想透过这个反常的现象，去探索一下背后的本质，到底是什么？
美国加息的本质
首先在金融层面而言，不管是加息还是降息降准，应该说这都是不同的金融周期下，采取的不同操作。那么其背后的含义，肯定也是不同的。我过去分析过，为什么美国加息的时候我们不但不能加息，却反倒要进行降准降息的原因。
这里面最核心的原因，就是因为美元是现行国际货币金融体系的中心货币。那么当美国在加息的时候，实际上是在抽走全世界的流动性。在这个时候，如果我们也同时进行加息，就会出现一个很大的风险，就是资产泡沫崩盘的风险。
为什么会出现这种情况呢？
因为一方面美国加息的时候，全球的美元资本会向美国回流，同时，如果我们要避免出现资本集中快速回流，也跟随进行加息，那么对国内的资本市场而言，就会形成双重紧缩。一个是国际资本外流带来的紧缩，还有一个是自己加息带来的紧缩。
那么在双重紧缩之下，会大量抽干整个资本市场的流动性。这个时候，泡沫越多的资产，面临崩盘的风险就会越大。那么在这种崩盘的压力之下，往往就会有两种选择。
一种是跟着加息，这样可以稳定汇率，但同时会对国内的资产价格形成压力。还有一种是不加息，甚至是降息，来稳住国内的资产价格，但同时汇率会面临贬值的压力。
在这种情况下，之所以会做出两种不同的选择，就要看各自国内的具体情况，来进行抉择。如果国内资产价格泡沫并不大，可以选择跟着加息。另一种如果外汇储备足够多，可以不跟着加息，甚至降息。这样既可以稳定国内资产价格，也可以通过外汇储备来稳定汇率。
很简单，我们选择的就是后一条。同时特立独行的土耳其，也是选择了后一条。但是土耳其并没有我们这么多外汇储备，这就造成土耳其里拉贬值压力比较大。里拉贬值之后，也会推高土耳其能源和商品的进口价格，进而推升土耳其国内的通胀。
从根本上来说，站在美国的角度，他肯定是希望大家都跟着选择第1条道路，也就是大家都跟着一起加息。这样全世界形成一次全面的双重紧缩，即国际的金融紧缩和国内的金融紧缩。
只要走到这一步，美国就会不断大幅快速的加息，全世界跟着一起，快速的抽干市场的流动性，造成大量的资产泡沫崩盘，只有这样，美国才有机会出来，用超发的美元进行抄底。
那么很多人会有一个疑问，在美国紧缩的时候，包括欧洲也在进行紧缩，为什么他们国内的资产价格没有出现崩盘呢？尤其是欧美股市的泡沫，面临着很大的估值压力的情况下。
这正是我们需要透过现象去看本质的一个关键。
美国加息失灵背后的预期改变
这次美国的加息周期，在事实上，确实对全世界的资产价格，都形成了一定的压力。因为美元回流，带走了大量的流动性。但是这种压力，对于美国和其他的发达国家，还不一样。
我们先说美国。
对美国而言，加息，不一定就像常规情况下那样，会紧缩美国内部的流动性。这是一个很反常识的现象。因为正常情况下，加息就是会紧缩流动性，但是美国跟其他的国家不一样的地方，就在于美国用的是美元。
美元作为国际中心货币，在宽松周期里，都会大量的流出美国，流向国外。那么当美国进行加息的时候，美元开始回流。虽然美联储加息会造成美国国内的部分流动性紧缩，但是同时随着国际上大量的美元回流美国，美国国内的流动性，并不会形成严重的紧缩。
关于这个，我们可以看美联储隔夜逆回购账户的数据，对此进行了佐证。就是美国的加息预期释放之后，还没开始正式加息，就有大量美元回流美国，美联储隔夜逆回购账户的规模，从不到1,000亿美元，快速增加到高峰时期的25,000亿美元。
到现在，美国已经加息到5%的水平了，美联储隔夜逆回购账户的规模，依然维持在22000亿的水平上，这都是全球美元回流美国的结果，美国国内流动性依然宽松。
所以我们看到美国在开启加息周期之后，美国国内的通胀，一直持续在高位。这从某一个方面反映的是，美国国内的流动性并不紧张。但是在欧洲就不一样了，一方面是美国加息，一方面还有俄乌冲突带来的资金避险需求。
在两种作用力之下，欧洲的资金大量流出。这也造成欧洲各国的股市，一度出现了大幅下跌。
我们看欧洲国家的股市，在去年经历了三次大跌，分别是在3月、6月和9月。这背后对应的分别是3月份，美国开始加息，同期俄乌冲突爆发。6月份，美联储把加息幅度调高到75个基点，同时欧洲的能源危机恶化。9月份，美联储继续强化加息预期，同时俄罗斯开启部分动员。
但是到了去年10月份，欧美的股市基本是中期见底，然后开始逐渐反弹。这其中又经历了两次主要的转折。分别是在去年10月和今年3月。那么尤其是欧洲的股市，在美国的加息和俄乌冲突的双重压力之下，为什么也能实现两次向上的转折呢？
这背后应该说是，有两个重大的预期改变。那这两个重大预期的改变，都跟瑞士有关系。
第一个是在去年的10月份，先后爆出来，英国养老金基金爆雷危机，和瑞士瑞信爆雷危机。这两个危机，向美国发出了明确的信号，也就是美国的盟友们，已经快要承受不了这么快速大幅的加息了。
之后出现了第一次预期的调整，并最终在11月美联储加息之后落地。也就是11月，将会是美联储最后一次进行75个基点这种超高幅度的加息，之后的加息将会逐步缩小加息的幅度。这对于金融市场而言，就意味着整个加息周期里面，最凶险的时刻过去了。
那么第二个预期的重大改变，是在今年的3月份，美国硅谷银行出现破产，而同时瑞信再次曝出爆雷危机。在瑞信曝出爆雷危机之后，市场还在传言，德国德意志银行，也有可能会出现爆雷。
毫无疑问，不管是美国内部的爆雷危机，还是美国的这些主要盟友出现爆雷，都将造成整个西方世界，出现一次集体的大崩盘。这会让美国的整个金融紧缩功亏一篑。这个时候，美联储再次出手，改变了整个西方国家金融市场的预期。
在瑞士瑞信爆雷之后，美联储联合欧央行、瑞士央行、日本央行、英国央行，进行集中的货币互换。美联储的这个举动背后，传达出一个清晰的意思，那就是美国至少是在短期之内，将会对他的盟友所出现的金融危机，进行兜底。反过来说，美国在短期之内不会靠坑杀盟友来维持自己的生存。
这对于欧洲、日本、英国，这些美国的传统盟友来说，是一个重大的利好，也是一个非常重要的预期落地，那就是他们短期之内，安全了。
随之而来的，就是他们的股市，在经历了一次回调之后，又开启了一轮新的上涨，因为他们没有什么太大的后顾之忧了。这也是现在，欧洲，英国，甚至日本的股市都在不断创新高，不断上涨的主要原因。
就是这两个预期的改变，也改变了金融市场，对于风险的评估。那么除了风险预期的改变之外，其实还要回答一个问题，就是在紧缩之下，他们的钱从哪来？而这是透过现象去看本质的关键之所在。
事出反常必有妖
我们去看美国出现银行破产倒闭之后，美联储的操作，就大致能够看出一些端倪来。我们常说事出反常必有妖，在正常的金融紧缩之下，不可能还会有大量的资金去推动股市大幅上涨。反之，如果股市还在创出新高，那就一定是有资金在进行推动。
这些资金从哪里来？美国的行为，已经给出了答案。
我们前面说了，美联储进行加息，是紧缩全世界的流动性，其实后面还有半句话，是美联储的缩表，才是真正紧缩美国国内的流动性。
实际上去年美国开始加息以来，虽然加息的幅度和节奏都很快，然而美联储一开始表态的，每个月还要同时进行950亿美元的缩表计划，却自始至终，从来没有不折不扣的执行过。
换句话说，美国压根就没有想过，要紧缩其国内的流动性。也就是说，美国加息，控制其国内的通胀，不过是一个掩人耳目的幌子，仅此而已。因为缩表紧缩流动性的效果会更好，但是美国是万万不能这么做的，因为那很可能会把美股，真的搞崩盘。
美国不但不敢紧缩其国内的流动性，在今年3月之后，由于美国的利率水平达到了5%左右的高位，美国的银行已经接连出现破产倒闭的情况。于是紧急之下，美联储搞了一个骚操作，就是一边加息，一边给美国的金融机构进行定向放水。
这等于是美国一边在联合发达国家加息抽干世界上的流动性，一边另外开一个口子，偷偷的给其国内的金融机构进行放水。那么在美国已经对其盟友的金融风险进行兜底的情况下，欧洲、日本、英国，甚至是印度，他们的股市在不断上涨的背后，是否他们也在对金融机构偷偷放水呢？
而反观我们这边，我们既不是美国的盟友，甚至说跟美国都不是一伙的，那么一旦我们这边因为美国紧缩和资本流出，出现了流动性危机，美国是不可能来跟我们搞货币互换，来给我们进行流动性托底的。
所以站在我们的角度，应该怎么去应对呢？那最好的方式，就是资本市场在低位进行震荡。因为这个时候如果我们也像欧洲日本印度的股市那样，大涨甚至创出新高，只会给更多的投机资金创造高位出逃的机会。
而这就是在美国的紧缩周期里，进行投资的时候，最核心的指导精神，只要在宏观层面你明白了这个道理，就既不会羡慕别人创新高，也不会对自己怨天尤人。
因为在美国的紧缩周期里，那些不是美国盟友的国家，唯一的核心的任务，只有一个，就是保命、保命、保命。那对应的做法也只有一个，就是防风险，防风险，防风险。
价格高，只是利好卖出者，价格低，才是利好买入的。我们除了房地产以外，其他的资产价格估值并不高。欧洲最大的资产管理机构，管理着2.1万亿欧元资产的东方汇理资产管理公司，就正在出售美国资产，转投中国资产。
所以从宏观上讲，到底是股市在高位更好，还是在低位更好呢？我相信如果把整个逻辑梳理清楚之后，大家就会明白，为什么我们在进行宽松，股市却没有大涨，这背后的逻辑，与欧美在进行紧缩，股市却大涨，是同一个事情的一体两面。
只是这个世界现在新增的蛋糕越来越少，大家的增速都在放缓，那么从增量博弈转向存量博弈，就是一个必然。
最后
在现有的国际秩序下，整个利益的分配，从规则上是天然的倾向于欧美发达国家的。他们可以坐享其成，在食物链顶端，拿走最多的利益。但今时今日，他们已经是德不配位，全球的实力地位和经济结构，都不支持现有的，这种不合理的国际秩序和利益结构。
但是美国不想改变，欧洲也依然还有侥幸心理。美国和他的盟友们，妄图维护一个对他们来说最有利的旧世界，旧秩序，旧格局。然而在欧亚大陆上，从中国到俄罗斯，从中亚到中东，甚至远在欧亚大陆之外的南美和非洲，大家都在推动一场新的变革。
世界潮流，浩浩荡荡。历史告诉我们，顺之者昌，历史也终将告诉他们，逆之者亡。
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