Return to Central Asia, a key step in China's revival重返中亚，中国复兴的关键一步

On May 18 and 19, the China-Central Asia Summit was held in Xi'an, Shaanxi Province. The five Central Asian countries were Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. This summit between China and the five Central Asian countries is a China-led grand event held in China following the summit between China and the League of Arab States and the summit between China and the Gulf States in December last year.

Today, the leaders of the five countries participated in a welcome ceremony with the cultural characteristics of the Tang Dynasty in Xi'an Datang Paradise, and experienced the glory of Chang'an today. 1500 years ago, the ancestors of the Central Asian countries shared the glory of the prosperous Tang Dynasty with the Central Plains. Because many areas in Central Asia belonged to the Tang Dynasty at that time, for example, Li Bai, a representative of Chinese literature, was said to have been born in a place called Suiye in Central Asia. Today they also enjoy the strategic dividend of the Belt and Road Initiative, a major eastern country.

The five Central Asian countries have a total area of 4 million square kilometers, a population of 74 million, and a total GDP of about 300 billion US dollars. All five countries are landlocked, but have abundant energy resources. It is estimated that the oil reserves in Central Asia and the Caspian Sea region are 150 billion to 200 billion barrels, accounting for about 18% to 25% of the world's oil reserves. The proven natural gas reserves have reached 7.9 trillion cubic meters, and the five Central Asian countries are therefore called the second Middle East. Kazakhstan's uranium reserves rank second in the world, and Turkmenistan's natural gas reserves are 6 trillion cubic meters, ranking fourth in the world. Uzbekistan's gold reserves rank fourth in the world. In addition, Central Asia is also rich in cash crops such as grains and cotton.

The geographical locations of these five countries are quite important. Since ancient times, they have been strategically important places that have been repeatedly contested among major powers. Our Chinese ancestors started from the Han Dynasty, along the Hexi Corridor all the way to the west, opened up the world-famous Silk Road, and opened up a new world for the Chinese Han people. It can be said that under the conditions of limited transportation in ancient times, the Silk Road was the ancient world trade routes. Now we have restored this trade route and brought it back to life.

Today, the New Silk Road starts from Xi’an, passes through Lanzhou, arrives at Urumqi, exits the gate of China, leads to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Turkey, then north to Russia, and then to Europe. The five Central Asian countries are the gates of our Silk Road, the first stop when we leave the country.

Looking at history, we will find a rule: all dynasties that controlled Central Asia were the era when the Chinese nation was relatively strong. In the Western Han Dynasty, the famous general Chen Tang defeated the Zhizhi Shanyu in the battle, and played a national prestige. Many countries in Central Asia surrendered to the power of the Han Dynasty. This is the use of military strength to influence Central Asia. It can be seen that not only economic commodities such as silk affect Central Asia, but China’s military strength also affects Central Asian countries. Under the deterrence of the Han Dynasty, they are the guardian countries of the Silk Road. Allow the Silk Road to be destroyed.

During the Tang Dynasty, it even expanded its influence to Central Asia, turning Central Asia into the territory of the Tang Dynasty. The Tang Dynasty established 9 Protectorate Houses, the largest of which was the Protectorate House in Anxi. The jurisdiction once completely covered the north and south of the Tianshan Mountains, including present-day Xinjiang, eastern and southeastern Kazakhstan, all of Kyrgyzstan, eastern Tajikistan, most of Afghanistan, northeastern Iran, the eastern half of Turkmenistan, and most of Uzbekistan. Until the Kaiyuan period, the influence of the Tang Dynasty in Central Asia retreated to the east, but still influenced Central Asia.

When Gao Xianzhi led the army to rush for thousands of miles and confronted the Arab Empire, the Arab Empire felt the strength of the Tang army. After the defeat, the Tang Dynasty continued to expand in Central Asia. Many small countries in Central Asia also chose to stand between the Tang Dynasty and the Arab Empire. Later, the Arab Empire sent envoys to Tang and was willing to communicate with Tang. It can be seen that the war did not affect the relationship between the two countries, and the prestige of the Tang Dynasty in Central Asia was still very high.

During the Yuan Dynasty, it directly annexed the countries of Central Asia, and Central Asia was a few khanates that split from the Mongolian and Yuan Dynasties. After the Qing Dynasty regained Xinjiang, the Central Asian region was connected with the Central Plains Dynasty, and some countries in Central Asia became vassal states of the Qing Dynasty. When breaking away from the Central Plains Dynasty, after the Central Plains Dynasty lost the Western Regions, the economic development of Central Asia was also affected. Some small countries also lost their economic sources due to the interruption of the Silk Road. In the end, their domestic economies collapsed and eventually perished.

It can be seen from this that the importance of the Silk Road is an important channel for communication between the East and the West. Eurasian civilization cannot do without the Silk Road. Without the Silk Road, other continents lack the prosperity of civilization. At the same time, wars often occurred in Central Asia because of the Silk Road. Prosperity is also caused by this line, and wars are also caused by this line.

As the starting point of the Silk Road, China has played an important role in history. When China was strong, the Silk Road also prospered. When China declined, the Silk Road also declined. one ring. During the prosperous period, China controlled the Western Regions, and the security of the land Silk Road was guaranteed, and the route would prosper.

In modern times, Central Asia was controlled by Tsarist Russia, and later incorporated into the territory of the Soviet Union. However, Central Asia did not develop vigorously, and finally became independent due to the disintegration of the Soviet Union. However, for a long time, Central Asia was still Russia's sphere of influence. But American power is also lurking in Central Asia. As the United States gradually withdraws from the Middle East and Central Asia, Russia is held back by the Russia-Ukraine war and has no time to take care of the situation in Central Asia. Central Asia and us are getting closer and closer, and the relationship is getting tighter. It is time to return to Central Asia and restore the Silk Road. It's brilliant.

From ancient China, Persia, and Arabia to the current Soviet Russia and the United States, historical facts have proved that whoever effectively controls Central Asia will be in its heyday, and if it withdraws from Central Asia, its national power will also decline.

Today we put forward the strategic concept of the Belt and Road Initiative, which is to rejuvenate the Chinese nation and build a community of shared future for mankind. From last month’s peace promotion in the Middle East to this month’s Central Asia summit, we want to unite Asian countries closely and build A large Asian plate, marginalizing those island countries in the world that try to engage in offshore separation, such as the United States, Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, Australia and other countries.

The entire Asian continent, with resources and energy from countries such as the Middle East and Central Asia, coupled with China's entire industrial chain manufacturing industry, is not afraid of the blockade and sanctions of the world's island countries at all. If you dare to surround me, I will edge you. Losing control of the Asian continent, the fate of these countries is like Wang Xiaoer's Chinese New Year, declining and falling behind every year. And the king of the continental power era will eventually return, and we will re-dominate the world in an unprecedented civilized way.

Saudi Arabia, the super catfish of global change

The country of Saudi Arabia, looking at it now, cannot be underestimated.

Since the crown prince came up, Lu Ziye, things that broke the rules have happened from time to time, it can be said that there has been a "catfish effect".

In fact, recently, Saudi Arabia has done several major events, each of which directly stirred up the global economy and geopolitics.

Let's take a look at it first. On Monday, Saudi Arabia suddenly announced a cut in oil production capacity, which directly blew up Biden.

The reduction in oil production means that Saudi Arabia has to protect prices.

However, if Saudi Arabia guarantees prices, what about the inflation in Western countries in the United States? Inflation can't be controlled, isn't that the PUA Fed continues to raise interest rates?

And we all know that the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to the point of detonating the banking crisis. If this continues, will there be no accidents?

Therefore, looking at Saudi Arabia as the five scumbags of war, but the things they did could kill the Americans by no means.

Coupled with the fact that Saudi Arabia is flirting with Russia and China, it is estimated that the Americans have already gritted their teeth.

So far, the United States can only use the withdrawal of security guarantees as a threat, but we have not seen Saudi Arabia taking it seriously. After all, Saudi Arabia has always sided with the Republican Party. Yes, this directly involves the big issue of the bipartisan struggle in the United States.

If the above incidents are explosive enough, then Saudi Arabia and Iran came to China to discuss cooperation and resumption of diplomatic relations, which is even more explosive.

Although they all believe in Islam, they belong to completely different camps and have been fighting in various ways. Now, they have given China enough face, and under China's mediation, they have accelerated the peace talks and cooperated in doing business. This would have been unimaginable 2 years ago.

The core reason is obvious, China has given the Saudi Crown Prince what he wants.

Saudi Arabia now sees that it will not be able to survive for a few years by relying on fossil energy alone, and urgently needs industrialization transformation and new energy transformation. And these two pieces can help Saudi Arabia, and looking at the world, it is China. What's more, China is already a super buyer of Saudi oil, and it directly sends money to Saudi Arabia to help the smooth transition of its industrial transformation period. May I ask, Saudi Arabia wants long-term internal stability, and still doesn't listen to you?

However, things are not so simple.

At present, Chinese companies have poured into Saudi Arabia in a blowout style, directly helping Saudi Arabia to carry out large-scale infrastructure construction, factory construction, 5G configuration, and so on. The scale and scale are so large that it has reached the point where it is jaw-dropping.

Faced with the premise that the United States can freeze and confiscate Russia's foreign reserves at any time, Saudi Arabia is actually panicking.

Because, no matter what the previous relationship was, once the United States turns its face, there is no bottom line, so who will not panic?

For Saudi Arabia today, the dilemma at the strategic level is obvious.

If you don’t listen to the United States, you may be abolished directly; if you listen to the United States completely, your national strategic autonomy will disappear.

Considering that the debt crisis in the United States, financial market turmoil, credit collapse and other major events that have not been seen in decades are gradually breaking out, Saudi Arabia can only find another way out.

What's even more exasperating is that the United States' own development of shale oil is equivalent to the US version of "domestic circulation as the mainstay, domestic and international dual circulation as the supplement".

The complementarity between the United States and Saudi Arabia in the industrial field has now directly become a direct competitor.

In other words, the petrodollar system has actually experienced a serious crisis after the development of shale oil in the United States.

So, you let Saudi Arabia not worry, how is it possible?

Saudi Arabia is stable internally, all of which rely on selling oil to make money and distribute benefits internally. Now that you have abolished the tools used by others to make money, Saudi Arabia may have been killed by the internal people demanding welfare before the external threat emerged.

Therefore, Saudi Arabia's change is not brain-dead, but a struggle. Between external threats and internal stability maintenance, Saudi Arabia can only passively choose "to fight against the outside world before securing the inside."

As a result, geopolitical relations began to loosen, petrodollars can be ignored, these are things that are visible to the naked eye.

In addition, in the recent financial turmoil in the United States and Western countries, Saudi Arabia is more or less a stakeholder. However, what we have seen is that neither the United States nor Switzerland cares about Saudi Arabia's interests at all. Harvesting directly, causing Saudi Arabia to lose blood, led to the resignation of the responsible ministers.

On the one hand, Saudi Arabia has been cultivating the financial markets of the United States and the West for a long time; on the other hand, if something really happens, people can still cut you off from Saudi Arabia at will, and even Switzerland can directly rob it.

Therefore, for Saudi Arabia, seeing the increasing risks in the financial markets of the United States and Western countries, how is it possible not to go east and do a hedging?

With the insanity of today's Americans, there really are three advantages and two disadvantages, which directly cut off your Saudi Arabia's massive foreign investment, which was originally a "reasonable" thing.

As the saying goes, "raise soldiers for a thousand days, and use them for a while."

Saudi Arabia is eager to reconcile with all parties in the Middle East, ostensibly to resolve the power vacuum after the withdrawal of US forces.

However, the real key is that since Saudi Arabia wants to develop its economy and transform its industries, it absolutely needs a peaceful environment.

For Saudi Arabia, doing business everywhere, even with past enemies, is an important phased strategy.

However, these changes in Saudi Arabia have begun to profoundly affect all aspects of finance, geography, entities, and the game of great powers.

The change in Saudi Arabia means that the petrodollar system is further loosened. In the future, without the support of a large number of real assets at the bottom of the dollar, the long-term depreciation of the dollar is already inevitable.

When the "Saudi-Russia-China" industrial cycle system is established, it is equivalent to the establishment of a strong interest alliance between core resources and core manufacturing.

And the opponents of this system will be the ever-expanding debts of the United States and Western countries, as well as their shameless excessive currency issuance.

This also means that once the "Saudi-Russia-China" industrial cycle system jointly controls production capacity, the degree of global stagflation in the future can only be overestimated, not underestimated.

After all, the specific characteristics of stagflation are that, compared with the demand side, there is a serious shortage of supply and prices soar directly.

Of course, this also means that in the long run, the price of precious metals is worth looking at.

Because, as the handle of the global fiat currency, the loss of the credit of the US dollar will be a major phenomenon-level disaster for the global economy and geopolitics.

Since there has been no high inflation for 40 years, everyone still has the habit of thinking about the dollar credit accumulated in the past 40 years. Therefore, in the event of an avalanche, no snowflake is innocent.

From this point of view, we also want to thank Biden. This guy delays time every day to prevent thunder, isn't it also giving us all more time to prepare?

Changes in the Middle East have never been negligible, otherwise why did Bush Jr. go out to fight?

Saudi Arabia is constantly moving closer to China, which is connected with major events such as our Belt and Road Initiative, the US dollar system, the Federal Reserve interest rate, global inflation levels, and China's export situation.

Judging from the current trend that has taken shape, China did not directly confront the United States, but chose to poke at the weak places of the United States' global dominance, which is a very clever move.

In the future, more and more Middle Eastern countries will settle with us in RMB, so the long-term stable and slightly overvalued RMB exchange rate will also be inevitable.

This also means that our domestic inflation situation and our core assets actually have greater support from foreign capital.

Everything is just getting started and going in the right direction.

 5月18日与19日这两天，中国——中亚五国峰会在陕西省西安市举行，中亚五国分别是哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、土库曼斯坦。这次中国与中亚五国的峰会，是继去年12月，中国与阿拉伯国家联盟峰会，以及中国与海湾国家联盟峰会之后，在中国举办的由中国主导的盛会。

五国领导人今日在西安大唐芙蓉园，参加了带有大唐文化特色的欢迎仪式，领略了今日长安的辉煌。1500年前，中亚诸国的先祖们和中原地区共享着盛唐的荣耀。因为在当时中亚很多地区都属于大唐，比如我国的文学代表人物李白，据说诞生在中亚地区一个叫碎叶的地方。今天他们同样享受着东方大国一带一路的战略红利。

中亚五国总面积有400万平方公里，人口7400万，GDP总量约3000亿美元。五国全都是内陆国，但是有丰富的能源资源。据估计，中亚及里海地区的石油蕴藏量为1500亿-2000亿桶，约占世界石油储量的18%-25%。而已经探明的天然气储量达到7.9万亿立方米，中亚五国因此被称为第二个中东。哈萨克斯坦的铀矿储量高居世界第二，土库曼斯坦的天然气储量为6万亿立方米，居世界第四位。乌兹别克斯坦的黄金储量是世界第四位。另外，中亚还盛产谷物、棉花等经济作物。

这五个国家的地理位置相当重要，自古以来，就是各大国之间反复争夺的战略要地。我们的华夏先祖从汉朝开始，顺着河西走廊一路向西，开拓了举世闻名的丝绸之路，打开了华夏汉族的新天地，可以说，在古代交通受限的条件下，丝绸之路就是古代的世界贸易路线。如今我们又修复了这条贸易路线，让它重新焕发了生机。

如今，新丝路从西安市出发，经兰州，到乌鲁木齐， 出了中国的国门，通往哈萨克、吉尔吉斯、塔吉克、乌兹别克、土库曼，然后到伊朗和土耳其，再北上俄罗斯，再通往欧洲。中亚五国是我们丝绸之路的家门口，出境第一站。

翻开历史，我们会发现一个规律：凡是控制中亚的朝代都是中华民族比较强盛的时代。在西汉，名将陈汤灭郅支单于之战，打出了国威，中亚许多国家都臣服在汉朝的强大之下。这是动用军事实力影响中亚地区，可见，不仅只有丝绸等经济商品影响中亚，中国军事实力同样影响中亚各国，在汉朝的威慑下，他们是丝绸之路的守护国，汉朝不允许丝绸之路遭到破坏。

而唐朝时期，更是把势力扩展到中亚，让中亚地区变成唐朝的版图。唐朝设立9个都护府，其中最大的是安西都护府。辖区一度完全覆盖天山南北，包括现今的新疆、哈萨克斯坦东部、东南部、吉尔吉斯斯坦全部、塔吉克斯坦东部、阿富汗大部、伊朗东北部、土库曼斯坦东半部、乌孜别克斯坦大部等地。直到开元年间，唐朝在中亚的势力退回到东部，但依旧影响着中亚。

当高仙芝率领军队千里奔袭，和阿拉伯帝国硬刚时，让阿拉伯帝国，感到唐军的强大，失败后的唐朝，依旧在中亚扩张。许多中亚小国，同样在唐朝和阿拉伯帝国间选择站队。而之后的阿拉伯帝国派使者来唐，愿意和唐交往，可见战争并没有影响两国的关系，唐朝在中亚地区的威望还是很高的。

元朝时期，直接吞并了中亚各国，中亚都是蒙元几个分裂出去的汗国。清朝收复新疆后，中亚地区又和中原王朝联系上，中亚有的国家还成了清朝的藩属国。在脱离中原王朝联系时，当中原王朝失去西域后，中亚地区的经济发展也受到影响。有的小国，还因丝绸之路的中断，失去了经济的来源，最后搞的国内经济崩溃，最终灭亡。

由此可见，丝绸之路的重要性，一条沟通东西方的重要通道，欧亚大陆文明是离不开丝绸之路的，其他大洲，都因没有丝绸之路，就缺乏文明的繁荣。与此同时中亚也因丝绸之路而经常发生战争，繁荣也是这条线，战乱也是因这条线。

而中国作为丝绸之路的起点，在历史上扮演着重要的角色，当中国强盛时期，丝绸之路也跟着繁荣，当中国衰落时，丝绸之路也会跟着衰落，只因缺乏中国这重要的一环。强盛时期，中国控制了西域，陆上丝绸之路的安全才得以保障，路线才会繁荣。

近代以来，中亚地区被沙俄控制，后来又被苏联纳入版图，但中亚并没有大力发展起来，最终因为苏联解体而独立，不过在相当长的时间里，中亚仍是俄罗斯的势力范围，但美国的势力也在中亚鬼影祟祟。随着美国逐步退出中东中亚，俄罗斯被俄乌战争所牵制，无暇顾及中亚局势，中亚和我们越走越近，关系越来越紧，是时候重返中亚，恢复丝绸之路往日的辉煌了。

从古代的中国、波斯、阿拉伯到现在的苏俄、美国，历史事实证明：谁有效控制中亚，谁就处于鼎盛时期，退出中亚，国力也跟随着衰落。

今天我们提出一带一路的战略构想，就是要让中华民族再次伟大复兴，建立人类命运共同体，从上个月的中东大促和到这个月的中亚峰会，我们要让亚洲各国紧密团结起来，建立一个大亚洲板块，边缘化那些妄图搞离岸离间的世界岛国，如美国，加拿大，日本，英国，澳大利亚等国。

整个亚洲大陆，有中东中亚等国的资源能源，再加上中国的全产业链制造业，完全不惧怕世界岛国们的封锁和制裁。你敢围堵我，我就边缘你。失去对亚洲大陆的控制权，这些国家的命运就像王小二过年，一年不如一年而衰败落后。而大陆权时代的王者终将归来，我们将会用一种前所未有的文明方式重新主导这个世界。

沙特，全球变局的超级鲶鱼

沙特这个国家，现在来看，不可轻视了。

自从王储上来，路子野，打破常规的事情时有发生，可以说已经大有“鲶鱼效应”。

事实上，近期，沙特干了好几件大事，每一件都是直接搅动全球经济和地缘政治的大事。

我们先来看看，沙特此前有一个周一，突袭式宣布石油产能减产，直接把拜登气炸了。

石油减产，意味着沙特要保价。

但是，沙特保价，那美西方国家的通胀怎么办？通胀控不住，那岂不是PUA美联储继续加息？

而我们都知道，现在美联储加息已经到了引爆银行危机的程度，这再加下去，还不出事？

所以，看着沙特像是战五渣，可人家干出来的事情，那绝壁是可以要了美国人的命。

再加上沙特跟俄罗斯、中国眉来眼去，估计美国人早就是咬牙切齿了。

截至目前，美国也只能用撤出安全保障作为威胁，可是我们没有看到沙特很当一回事。毕竟，沙特始终是站在共和党这边的。是的，这又直接涉及了美国两党乱斗的大问题。

如果说以上事件已经够劲爆了，那沙特跟伊朗来中国谈合作、谈复交，这就更加劲爆了。

尽管都是信仰伊斯兰教，但是，分属完全不同的阵营，一直各种乱斗。现在，竟然给足中国面子，在中国的斡旋下，加速推进和谈，还要合作做生意。这放在2年前都是不敢想的事情。

核心原因很明显，中国给了沙特王储想要的东西了。

沙特现在看出光靠化石能源混饭吃也混不了几年了，急需工业化转型和新能源转型。而这两块能够给予沙特帮助的，放眼全球，也就中国这一家了。况且中国已经是沙特石油的超级买家，直接塞钱给沙特助其产业转型期平滑过渡。试问，沙特要长期内部稳定，还不听你的？

然而，事情并不是如此简单。

目前，中国企业已经井喷式的涌入沙特，直接帮助沙特进行大规模的基建、建厂，配置5G等等。尺度和规模之大，已经到了令人乍舌的地步。

在面对美国可以随时冻结、没收俄罗斯的外储的前提下，沙特心中其实也是发慌的。

因为，无论以前关系如何，美国一旦翻脸，可以如此没有底线，那谁还会不慌？

对于今天的沙特而言，面临的战略级别的两难是显而易见的。

你不听美国的，可能人家就直接废了你；你要全听美国的，自己的国家战略自主权就荡然无存。

考虑到现在美国的债务危机、金融市场风暴、信用垮塌等几十年未有的大事件逐步集中爆发，沙特其实只能另谋出路。

更可气的是，美国自己发展页岩油，等于美版“国内大循环为主，国内国际双循环为辅”。

美国和沙特在产业领域的互补，如今直接变成了直接的竞争对手。

也就是说，石油美元体系，其实在美国发展页岩油后已经出现了严重的危机。

那么，你让沙特没有担忧，如何可能？

沙特内部稳定，全部是靠卖油赚钱对内发福利。你现在把人家赚钱的工具给废了，那沙特还没有等到外部威胁出现，或许就已经被内部要求福利的民众给干死了。

所以，沙特的异动，并不是脑残式的，而是一种挣扎，在外部威胁和内部维稳之间，沙特只能被动选择“攘外必先安内”。

于是，地缘政治关系开始松动，石油美元可以忽略，这些都是肉眼可见的事情。

另外，近期美西方国家的不少金融风暴中，沙特多多少少都是利益相关方。但是，我们看到的是，不管是美国还是瑞士，根本都不关心沙特的利益。直接收割，让沙特血亏，导致人家相关负责的部长级别的大佬都下台。

一方面，沙特长期耕耘美西方的金融市场；一方面，真的有个什么事情，人家照样随意割你沙特，甚至瑞士可以直接打劫。

因此，对于沙特而言，眼见美西方国家金融市场的风险越来越大，不往东边走一走，不去做个对冲，如何可能？

以今天美国人的疯癫，真的有个三长两短，直接割了你沙特海量的对外投资，原本就是“情理之中”的事情。

正所谓“养兵千日，用兵一时”。

沙特急着跟中东地区的各方力量和解，表面看是为了解决美国力量撤出后的权力真空。

但是，真正关键的是，沙特既然要发展经济，要产业转型，绝对需要一个和平的环境。

对于沙特而言，到处做生意，哪怕是和过去的敌人做生意，都是阶段性的重要战略。

可是，沙特的这些异动，却已经开始深刻地影响金融、地缘、实体、大国博弈等方方面面了。

沙特的异动，意味着石油美元体系进一步松动，未来美元在没有大量实物资产底部作为支撑的情况下，美元长期贬值已经是必然的事情了。

当“沙特—俄罗斯—中国”产业循环体系构建起来后，等同于核心资源和核心制造业之间构筑了强大的利益联盟。

而这个体系的对手盘，将会是美西方国家的不断膨胀的债务，以及他们恬不知耻的超发货币。

这也就意味着，一旦“沙特—俄罗斯—中国”产业循环体系联合控制产能，则未来全球滞胀的程度只能高估，不能低估。

毕竟，滞胀的具体特征就是，相比需求端，供给严重短缺，物价直接飞起。

当然，这也意味着，长期来看，贵金属的价格是值得高看的一头的。

因为，作为全球法币的扛把子，美元信用不再，将是全球经济和地缘政治的重大现象级灾难。

由于40年没有高通胀，40年积累的美元信用大家还有思维惯性，所以，一旦雪崩，没有一片雪花是无辜的。

从这个角度而言，我们还要感谢拜登，这货天天拖时间，不让爆雷，不也是给我们所有人更多准备的时间吗？

中东地区的异动，从来不是可以忽略不计的，否则当年小布什为什么要出去干架？

沙特不断向中国的方向走近一点，连接的是我们的一带一路计划、美元体系、美联储利率、全球通胀水平、中国出口的形势等等重大事件。

以目前已经成型的趋势来看，中国并没有直接跟美国正面硬刚，而是选择在美国全球统治的薄弱地方猛戳，是非常高明的一步棋。

将来越来越多的中东国家用人民币跟我们结算，那么，人民币汇率长期稳健、略带高估也将是必然。

这也就意味着，我们国内的通胀形势，我们的核心资产，其实有了更大的外资支撑。

一切刚刚开始，向着正确的方向。