reincarnation of fate命运的轮回

Before starting the topic, let's review what happened to Huawei in the past few years.

In 2017, Huawei’s mobile phone shipments were only 153 million units. In 2018, Huawei’s smartphone sales exceeded 200 million, just a little bit behind Apple. By 2019, Yu Chengdong said that it is expected that the annual shipments will exceed 250 million Taiwan, will overtake Samsung to become the world's number one.

Huawei has been devouring the high-end markets of Apple and Samsung. In 2018, Samsung shipped 292.3 million units, down 8% year-on-year, and Apple shipped 208.8 million units, down 3.2% year-on-year. Note that both are declining, while Huawei is growing. Huawei shipped 206 million units that year, more than 50 million units more than in 2017, a sharp increase of 33.6% year-on-year.

At that time, Huawei predicted that it would become the world's number one in 2019, and its shipments would reach 300 million units in 2020, while the markets of Samsung and Apple would shrink more and more.

As a result, the Trump administration began to hammer Huawei in 2019, banning Huawei's EDA and Google GMS from May, and Qualcomm stopped supplying Huawei.

In May 2020, all companies using American technology were required not to supply or manufacture for Huawei, so TSMC, MediaTek, Qualcomm, Intel, AMD, and SMIC all separated from Huawei.

In August 2020, all U.S. companies are prohibited from providing services to Huawei Cloud. In March 2021, all companies that use U.S. technology, including semiconductor, battery, antenna, and resistor and capacitor companies, are not allowed to supply Huawei.

Under this series of pressures, sales and profits of Huawei mobile phones plummeted.

In 2018, taking Q2 as an example, Apple took 62% of global mobile phone profits, Samsung took 17%, and Huawei took 8%.

According to Huawei's development plan, their family should gradually surpass Samsung and Apple in terms of sales after 2019, and gradually catch up with Samsung and Apple in terms of profits.

As a result, after being suppressed by the United States, the latest data in the first quarter of 2023 shows that Samsung accounts for 22% of global sales, Apple accounts for 21%, Xiaomi accounts for 11%, OPPO accounts for 10%, and VIVO Accounted for 7%.

In terms of profits, Apple accounts for 80% of global mobile phone profits, and Apple and Samsung account for a total of 96%. Apple and Samsung eat meat, and Chinese mobile phone manufacturers can only take a sip of soup.

Huawei only sold a measly 6.5 million units in the first quarter, which was directly excluded from key statistics and classified as other brands.

From the sales volume of 206 million units in the whole year of 2018 to 6.5 million units in the first quarter of 2023, it is estimated that it will be about 25 million units a year. It only took Huawei four or five years to be beaten by the United States to a sales volume of only 12 million units. %.

One can imagine the pressure of US sanctions.

The reason why the U.S. government is so cruel to Huawei is to prevent Huawei from upgrading its industry and keep the profits of high-end industries firmly in its own hands.

The profits of Apple and Samsung actually flow into the pockets of Americans.

The control of Samsung is still in the hands of the Li family, but their dividends are mainly taken by the United States. In Samsung's equity structure, foreign investors account for 55%, mainly from the financial consortia of Wall Street in the United States, major shareholders and affiliated companies. Accounting for 21%, Korean investors accounted for 19%.

U.S. capital accounts for half of the common stock, while U.S. investors account for 89% of the preferred stock, while Korean investors only account for 10%.

South Korea's per capita GDP is high but the people's life pressure is very high, because the profits are taken away by American companies, and the government has no money for secondary distribution.

In order to absorb the high profits of the global mobile phone industry, the Americans do not allow Chinese companies to get involved in high-end semiconductors. One appears and one is killed.

Since Huawei was hit hard by the United States in 2019, it relied on IT services such as carrier base stations, enterprise network services, and cloud computing to survive the disaster. It also caused some internal people to desperately want to build cars, thereby creating an urgent need for fresh profit points.

OPPO and Xiaomi are different. Their family does not have so many businesses, and their main income channel is almost only mobile phones. Their family cannot withstand the beating. If the United States imposes a ban, it will be a devastating blow to OPPO and Xiaomi.

For example, the 4nm chip developed by Zheku under OPPO is relatively advanced, and the pre-research of 2nm has also begun. Just like Huawei back then, it has begun to get involved in the core interests of the United States. A company like Apple will definitely not sit still and put pressure on the US government The senators and representatives in the country will kill their opponents in the bud ahead of time.

Huawei's blood is thick, and the mobile phone department is so miserable that it can still achieve 642.3 billion in revenue and 35.6 billion in net profit in 2022.

But Huawei has actually suffered a lot of beatings. You must know that Huawei’s net profit in 2019 is 62.7 billion yuan, 64.6 billion yuan in 2020, and 113.7 billion yuan in 2021. Compared with the past, this data in 2022 has fallen heavily, but Huawei Gritting your teeth, you can still hold on.

OPPO and Xiaomi do not have as many businesses as Huawei. They are weak and cannot withstand the beatings of the US emperor. We must understand that it is not easy for OPPO and Xiaomi.

After Huawei was punished by the United States, many people ridiculed Xiaomi for having no backbone in front of the US government. They figured out that there is only one Huawei in China, and OPPO and Xiaomi are mainly engaged in mobile phones. Their first priority is to survive, and they will have a future if they survive.

So if the United States keeps chasing after our high-end semiconductor industry, will we have no hope of development?

From the perspective of the overall macroscopic development law, it is unlikely.

For example, Zheku’s 3,300 R&D personnel were disbanded this time, and they were quickly snatched up by other Chinese companies. Experienced headhunters, when Zheku announced on May 11 that the company’s IT account and access control system would be upgraded, they were keenly aware of this. The company was about to be disbanded. On the night of the 11th, these headhunters found familiar employees of Zheku, and even managed to get the Zoom password of Zheku's online meeting on May 12, and they began to recruit people.

Starting at noon on May 12, semiconductor headhunters began to rob Zheku's resigned employees, and the QR codes of the headhunters were spread all over the sky.

More than 60 companies, including Huawei, Tesla, Geely, Pingtouge, Meituan, and Xiaomi, quickly digested this wave of talents.

Everyone does not have to worry about their lives. From January to April 2023, the demand for recruitment of mid-to-high-end talents in the chip field has doubled compared to 2021, and the salary has increased by nearly 80%, with an average annual salary of 560,000.

Don't worry about people with an annual salary of 560,000 and 100,000 to 200,000. Really, they are doing well.

As long as there are people, there will be industry, and as long as there is industry, there will be hope.

The development of China's chip industry has not been interrupted, they just flowed to other companies, such as HiSilicon, which is unbeatable in the United States.

Because HiSilicon chips cannot find TSMC and Samsung OEMs, the inventory is exhausted. The market share in the first quarter of 2022 will only account for 1%, and the market share will drop to 0 in the third quarter.

But recently, when a Japanese company Fomalhaut Techno Solutions disassembled Huawei's 5G small base station, it found that the proportion of parts from American companies was less than 1% (27% two years ago), and the parts from Chinese companies accounted for 55% (2 years ago). is 48%), the semiconductor products in it are not the products of the American companies Analog Devices and ON Semiconductor in the past, but the HiSilicon products of Huawei.

Chips on mobile phones require a 5nm process, but small base stations only require a mature 28nm process. HiSilicon cannot place orders with TSMC and Samsung, but some Chinese companies can complete OEM production.

HiSilicon has shifted from mobile phones to small base stations, which shows that HiSilicon is still exploring the way to survive, and Huawei has not given up on HiSilicon.

Huawei's R&D investment in 2021 and 2022 has reached an astonishing 142.7 billion and 161.5 billion yuan, accounting for 25% of the annual revenue, which shows that Huawei has not fallen down and is still struggling to save itself.

Not only did Huawei not give up HiSilicon, but it also promoted it to a first-level department, which is on an equal footing with Huawei's cloud computing, digital energy and other businesses.

At present, HiSilicon does not set any profit requirements. The whole group provides ammunition for HiSilicon, which is climbing against the wind, and then cooperates with local Chinese chip manufacturers who are also sanctioned by the United States. First, they will focus on chips in the fields of telecommunications equipment, automobiles, and televisions. Save your team's fighting power.

At present, Hisilicon is still developing a new Kirin chip. The specific progress has not been announced to the public. We ordinary people don’t have to worry about it. As long as the HiSilicon team is still there, the hope of the chip is there.

The U.S. sanctions against Huawei in the past few years are the hegemonic behavior of the U.S. not to allow China to enter high-tech and high-profit industries. However, it is impossible to stop the flow of talents in the industrial field. Emerging industrial countries will definitely eat high-tech and high-profit industries. industrial.

I recently read several articles about the history of the development of China's construction machinery and aircraft carriers, and found that the development of these industries is very similar.

For example, in the construction machinery industry, China first learned the Soviet Union’s mechanical excavation technology in the 1950s, then explored hydraulic excavation technology in the 1960s, and introduced hydraulic excavation technology from Europe and the United States in the 1980s. In the 2000s, our excavators were killed by foreign companies, leaving only Yuchai. .

But in the 2010s, China’s excavators suddenly exploded. Sany, Zoomlion, XCMG, Liugong, and Lonking emerged. The overall development of China's industry has given space for the development of construction machinery. In addition, Sany and Zoomlion have hired a large number of retired Japanese engineers, so that our technology has quickly caught up with developed countries.

To give a specific example, South Korea’s Hyundai and Doosan excavators used to be the favorites of domestic contractors. In 2011, a Hyundai 6-ton excavator cost more than 100,000 yuan, and a 20-ton excavator cost 800,000 yuan. The market share of excavators is as high as 30%, and Koreans make money while lying down.

After 2016, retired Japanese engineers came here by plane carrying boxes. Sany Zoomlion XCMG exploded under the blessing of their technology. Now a domestic 6-ton small excavator only costs 120,000 yuan, and a 20-ton excavator only costs more than 400,000 yuan. The Koreans were so loud that the market share plummeted to 2% last year.

South Korea's current trade deficit with China is caused by the slight overtaking of this kind of industrial field.

The same thing happened with the flight training content of Chinese aircraft carriers. A large number of retired U.S. Air Force personnel will help us train aircraft carrier pilots, so that the deck command actions of Chinese and American aircraft carriers when they take off and land are almost exactly the same.

In October 2022, Dugan, who had served in the U.S. Marine Corps for ten years and was good at flying AV-8B Harrier attack aircraft, was suddenly arrested when he returned to Australia from China. Dugan was originally an American. He renounced his American citizenship and settled in Australia in 2002. The United States accused him of providing pilot training for China at a flight school in South Africa between 2010 and 2012, involving techniques for launching and landing aircraft from naval aircraft carriers.

There are now many ace pilots from the United States coming to China. For example, the female pilot Emily Johnson (Emily Johnson), who has an extraordinary reputation in the US Air Force and civil aviation system, is now working in China to earn money.

The global flow of the industrial chain is irreversible. Where the money is, there are the people. Whether it is a senior retired technician from Japan or an ace pilot from the United States, they also flow with the money, and the money brings them to China. The industry The upgrade of the chain will also be completed in China.

In 2022, a major event occurred in the semiconductor industry. The United States did not allow American personnel to work in Chinese semiconductor companies. At that time, there was a lot of turmoil. Some soft-hearted intellectuals began to shout again. The sky is about to fall. This is actually a historical process It’s just a small twist in the process. These technicians have a lot of ways, either to give up their American citizenship, or to change to other nationalities, as long as they have enough money, enough treatment, and enough honors. Really, there are many international exchange personnel in this world. Can't live.

This time the U.S. is doing its best to rectify Huawei and upgrade our semiconductors, which is a short-term effect. If you look at the history line, it will delay our semiconductors for ten years at most, and what we should do ten years later.

The laws of history are irreversible, and the obstruction of the United States is just a pebble in the trend of history. It can give us a pause, but it cannot stop us from moving forward.

Our Chinese nation often produces some people who hate their own nation and want to kneel and lick in front of the Japanese and foreigners, because these people will take the interests of the Japanese and foreigners, but think about it the other way around, there are many people in other countries Those who want to make money and are willing to work internationally are actually pretty much the same.

Where there is yin, there is yang, where there is positive, there is negative, and everything will be balanced by itself.

When I was in Beijing, I would hear some intellectuals brag to me that her son joined Apple to earn US dollars. Now Americans and Japanese work for us for high income, and they are also interacting. This is an international exchange. It's not shabby to say the least.

Advanced industrial countries will definitely have old skilled workers retiring, and there will be surplus technicians who cannot find jobs. This will give opportunities to late-developing industrial countries. defeat the advanced industrial nations.

I think the latter will also happen to China and India. India may have excavator companies in the future, and their companies will also hire retired skilled workers from Sany Heavy Industry with high salaries. Can we stop these skilled workers from going abroad? ?

It cannot be stopped, it is impossible to stop it, as long as the conditions are right, Indian factories have a cost advantage, and as long as they perform normally, they will catch up with us.

For this kind of historical reincarnation, we must treat it with a normal mind, neither fearing powerful enemies, nor being complacent, and we should face the battle and take precautions.

Now I see those soft-boned intellectuals in China who touted the United States and Japan to the sky, and the reaction is not so fierce. I think from a philosophical point of view, this is called hedging. It is a hedging for international exchange personnel to come to China to make contributions. Where there is positive there is negative, and where there is yin there is yang. There are no absolutes in everything. Since we have taken the benefits of international exchange personnel, it is no big deal to put up with these soft-boned hedging.

In addition to technology flow, China can absorb the transfer of the global industrial chain, and there is also a very important scale effect.

When I visited Peak Company, their chairman mentioned that the dyeing technology of Peak’s uppers has developed by leaps and bounds compared with before, and that Peak can produce better and better-looking shoes. That is to say, this is not the progress of one company. It is a phenomenon that only the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain progress at the same time.

This phenomenon is increasing in China. It is because China's industrial system is the most comprehensive in the world and the industry categories are the most abundant. It is the interweaving of various industries that produces a coupling effect that gives Chinese manufacturing a cost advantage and a technological advantage.

A professor of chemistry in Jiangsu said that he followed the government to visit companies and found that a material that was stuck could be replaced by processing waste from another industry. Without their low energy consumption, low cost and high quality, it is no problem to make ordinary products to replace them.

The professor said that this is the advantage of cross-industry, which can only be achieved by China, which has the most complete industrial system in the world.

The combination of technology accumulation and scale coupling effect makes China's technological upgrading irreversible.

In the end, Chinese industrial products can kill the Quartet internationally.

In April 2023, China exported 2.02 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.8%, and imported 1.41 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.8%. The trade surplus reached 618.4 billion yuan, a surge of 96.5% over April last year.

This is an outrageous statistic.

Because last year's data was already very high, and this year, with such a high base, it has achieved another 96.5% skyrocketing.

Not only April, our trade surplus in the first four months increased by about 40%, and this year we will have a very arrogant trade surplus again.

What does this mean? It means that the whole world is looking for China to buy things, which can be produced in China and sold to them.

The main force of China's exports in April was automobiles, ships, auto parts, solar cells, medical instruments and appliances, luggage, steel, mechanical and electrical products, etc. Among them, automobiles were the most fierce, with an increase of 195%, and ships increased by 195%. 79%.

In the future, China's cheap labor and labor-intensive products will become more and more difficult to foreign trade, while high-tech electromechanical products will become better and better.

If industrial products are divided into four categories: cheap products, ordinary products, mid-to-high-end products, and high-end products, then China has shifted from focusing on cheap and ordinary products to ordinary and mid-to-high-end products.

The production of cheap products should be lost as soon as it should, and this cannot be stopped.

Moreover, China’s attack on high-end products is also very fierce. The automobile industry has basically been won, and mobile phones and semiconductors were almost won, but because this is the profit pool of American industry, others are not allowed to compete with it, and they have been suppressed since 2019. down.

The time to take it down was delayed by ten years.

It is no wonder that the United States is nervous. There are not many achievements in the civilian consumer industry. Apple is the benchmark they set to the world. China has already eaten so many industries and opened up the production of industrial products to the world. After being captured by Huawei in 2019, it is estimated that Xiaomi, OPPO, and VIVO will soon compete with Apple in sales today, and the happy life of Americans will drop a lot.

On the contrary, this incident shows from a side that the United States is really worried that the high-end field will be breached by us, and it is always keeping an eye on all our companies that may reverse them.

But if you stick to it for a long time, you will lose. The process of industrial circulation is irreversible, and the United States has played itself badly in finance, and the manufacturing industry does not know how long it can last.

I firmly believe that high-end industries in the United States must flow to China. At the same time, I also firmly believe that some of our industries will flow to India one day.

When India 30 to 50 years later, their Huawei, Sany Heavy Industry, and DJI also appeared, can we prevent Chinese engineers from helping them upgrade?

I don't think so. Arresting a few people and condemning them morally can't stop the law of history from happening.

Doesn't India have very serious land issues, caste issues, and education issues?

Looking at the problem by stretching the historical line, all problems are not problems. The problems that seem impossible to change now are just small ripples in the ups and downs of macro laws.

Land issues, caste issues, and education issues cannot be solved in India now, but fifty or one hundred years later, they will always overcome this hurdle.

Just like we don’t believe that the Soviet Union disbanded overnight, we don’t believe that US imperialism has declined to the point where it relies on LGBT to cover up domestic conflicts, and we don’t believe that China has suddenly entered a 40-year period of rapid development and is infinitely close to US imperialism.

The most advanced technologies in the world, including ceramic production, silkworm rearing, tea planting, glass manufacturing, steam engines, atomic bombs, and computers, were exclusive to one country at first, but soon flowed to other countries.

Today's lithography machines are the same, and semiconductor chips are the same. They cannot be avoided. This is the reincarnation of fate and the cycle of cause and effect.

We must not only have firm courage, believe that we will overcome the blockade of the United States and obtain the transfer of high-end industrial chains, but also be vigilant enough to prevent the industrial chain from flowing to India and prevent the country from entering a prosperous period in the future. We prepare ourselves for Americanization.

命运的轮回

展开正题前，我们先回顾一下这几年时间，发生在华为身上的事情。

2017年时，华为手机出货量仅为1.53亿台，2018年华为智能手机销量破2亿，离苹果仅差一点点，到2019年，余承东就表示，预计全年出货量要超过2.5亿台，将赶超三星成为全球第一。

华为一直在吞噬苹果和三星的高端市场，在2018年的时候，三星出货2.923亿台，同比跌8%，苹果出货2.088亿台，同比下滑3.2%，注意这两家都在下滑，而华为是在增长的，当年华为出货2.06亿台，比2017年多卖出5000多万台，同比暴增33.6%。

华为当时预计2019年将成为世界第一，2020年出货量将达到3亿部，三星和苹果市场将越来越萎缩。

结果2019年特朗普政府开始猛锤华为，从5月开始禁华为的EDA和谷歌GMS，高通停止对华为供货。

2020年5月，要求所有使用美国技术的公司，不能给华为供货和代工，于是台积电、联发科、高通、英特尔、AMD、中芯国际纷纷割离华为。

2020年8月，禁止美国所有公司对华为云提供服务，2021年3月，所有使用美国技术的企业，包括半导体、电池、天线、电阻电容公司，都不得对华为供货。

在这一系列打压下，华为手机的销量和利润暴跌。

2018年的时候，以Q2举例，全球手机利润苹果拿走62%，三星拿走17%，华为拿走8%。

按华为的发展计划，他们家应该在2019年后陆续在销量上超过三星苹果，并在利润上逐渐追赶三星苹果。

结果遭美国抽风一样铆足劲打压后，到2023年第一季度的最新数据，前几名变成了三星销售占全球22%、苹果占21%、小米占11%、OPPO占10%、VIVO占7%。

利润方面，苹果占全球手机利润的80%，苹果加三星总共占96%，苹果三星吃肉，中国手机厂商只能喝一小口汤。

华为第一季度只有可怜的650万部的销量，直接不纳入重点统计，被归为other品牌。

从2018年全年的2.06亿台销量，跌到2023年一季度的650万台，估计一年就2500万台左右，华为只用了四五年时间，就被美国打到销量只有原先的12%。

美国制裁的压力之大，可想而知。

美国政府之所以对华为这么凶狠，就是为了阻止华为产业升级，将高端产业的利润牢牢掌握在自己手里。

苹果和三星的利润，其实都是流向美国人口袋的。

三星的控制权还在李家手里，但他们的红利主要是美国拿走的，三星股权结构里，外国投资者占比达55%，主要是美国华尔街的金融财团，大股东和关联企业的占比达21%，韩国投资者占股19%。

普通股美国资本占一半，优先股里，美国投资者高达89%，韩国投资者仅占比10%。

韩国人均GDP高但百姓生活压力非常大，就是因为利润被美国公司拿走的缘故，政府没有钱进行二次分配。

为了吸食全球手机产业的高利润，美国人不容许中国企业向高端半导体染指，出现一个，捶死一个。

华为从2019年被美国痛击后，是靠运营商基站、企业网络服务、云计算等IT服务渡劫，还造成内部一部分人极想造车，从而创造新鲜利润点的迫切需求。

而OPPO、小米不一样，他们家没有这么多业务，主收入渠道几乎只有手机，他们家经不起捶打，美国要是下禁令，对OPPO、小米是毁灭性打击。

像OPPO旗下哲库研发的4nm芯片已经较为先进，2nm的预研也已经开始，就跟当年的华为一样，开始染指美国最核心利益，苹果这样的公司一定不会坐以待毙，就会施压美国政府里的参议员众议员，提前将对手扼杀在萌芽期。

华为血厚，手机部门惨到这种程度，2022年全年还能做到6423亿营收，净利356亿。

但华为其实也是扛了多少顿毒打，要知道华为2019年净利是627亿元、2020年是646亿元、2021年是1137亿元，2022年这个数据相比过去是重重摔了下来，但华为咬着牙还能撑得住。

OPPO和小米没有华为这么多业务，他们血薄，经不起美帝的毒打，我们要体谅OPPO和小米的不容易。

华为被美国恶整后，许多人嘲讽小米在美国政府面前没有骨气，搞清楚中国只有一家华为，OPPO和小米主营全在手机，他们首要任务是活命，活下去才有未来。

那如果美国一直追着我们的高端半导体产业猛打，我们就毫无发展希望了吗？

从整体宏观发展规律上来看，不太可能。

像哲库这次3300名研发人员解散，迅速被其他中国公司抢光了，经验老到的猎头，在5月11号哲库宣布公司IT账号和门禁系统要升级时，他们就敏锐地感觉这家公司要解散，11号晚上这些猎头就找到熟识的哲库员工，甚至想办法拿到了哲库5月12日线上会议的Zoom密码，就已经开始捞人了。

5月12日中午开始，半导体猎头开始抢夺哲库离职员工，猎头拉群的二维码传得满天飞。

华为、特斯拉、吉利、平头哥、美团、小米等60多家企业，迅速消化了这一波人才。

大家也不用为他们的生活操心，2023年1-4月，芯片领域中高端人才招聘需求，比2021年翻了一倍，工资增幅近80%，平均年薪高达56万。

大家就别拿着十几二十万年薪，替56万年薪的人着急了，真的，他们过得挺好。

只要有人在、产业就在，产业在、希望就在。

中国芯片产业的发展并没有被打断，他们只是流向了其他公司，比如美国打不死的海思。

海思芯片因为不能找台积电和三星代工，库存耗尽，2022年一季度市占率仅占1%，第三季度时市占率已降为0。

但最近有日本企业Fomalhaut Techno Solutions在对华为5G小基站拆解时，发现里面美国企业零部件比重也不到1%（两年前是27%），中国企业零部件占55%（两年前是48%），里面的半导体产品，并不是过去的美国企业亚德诺和安森美的产品，而是采用的华为旗下海思产品。

手机上芯片需要5nm工艺，但小基站只需要28nm成熟工艺，海思不能向台积电和三星下单，但中国企业有部分能完成代工生产。

海思从手机转向了小基站，可见海思还在探索存活之路，华为并没有放弃海思。

华为2021、2022年研发投入达到了惊人的1427、1615亿元人民币，占全年收入的25%，说明华为一直没有倒下，还在奋斗自强自救。

华为不仅不放弃海思，还将其提升为一级部门，和华为的云计算、数字能源等业务平起平坐。

目前海思不设任何盈利要求，全集团为逆风爬坡的海思提供弹药，再与同样被美国制裁的中国本土芯片制造商合作，先专注于电信设备、汽车、电视机等领域的芯片，保存团队战斗力。

目前海思也还在开发新款的麒麟芯片，具体推进情况一直没对外公布，我们普通人也不用瞎操心，只要海思的团队还在，芯片的希望就在。

这几年美国对华为的制裁，都是美国不允许中国进入高科技、高利润行业的霸权行为，但工业领域的人才流动是不可能阻止的，新兴工业国是一定会吃下高科技、高利润产业的。

最近读了几篇中国工程机械和航母发展的历史，发现这些产业的发展都很相似。

比如工程机械产业，中国1950年代先学苏联的机械式挖掘技术，1960年代再摸索液压挖掘技术，1980年代引进欧美的液压挖掘技术，2000年代时我们的挖掘机被外企杀到只剩一家玉柴。

但到了2010年代，中国挖掘机突然大爆发，出现了三一、中联、徐工、柳工、龙工各种大飙子，将外企全部干下马，拿到了世界第一，个中原因，就是中国工业全面发展，给了工程机械发展的空间，加上三一、中联大量外聘日本退休工程师，使我们的技术飞速赶上了发达国家。

举个具体的例子，韩国的现代和斗山挖掘机，曾经是国内包工头大锅的最爱，2011年一台现代6吨的挖掘机要十几万，20吨级别的要80万，韩系挖掘机市场占有率高达30%，韩国人躺着也挣钱。

2016年后，日本退休工程师提着箱子坐着飞机过来了，三一中联徐工在他们的技术加持下大爆发，现在一台国产6吨小挖只要12万，20吨的只要40多万，打得韩国人哇哇叫，市场份额暴跌到去年的2%。

韩国现在对中国贸易逆差，就是这种工业领域一点点被超过造成的。

中国航母的飞行训练内容，也发生了同样的事情，大量退役后的美国空军人员，会帮助我们训练航母飞行员，以至于中美两国航母起降时的甲板指挥动作，几乎一模一样。

2022年10月，曾在美国海军陆战队服役十年、擅长驾驶AV-8B鹞式攻击机的杜根，从中国返回澳大利亚时突然被捕，杜根原是美国人，2002年放弃美国国籍定居澳大利亚，美国指责他在2010至2012年间，在南非一家飞行学校，为中国提供飞行员培训，涉及从海军航空母舰上发射和降落飞机的技术。

美国那边现在有不少王牌飞行员跑来中国，比如在美国空军和民航系统中拥有非凡声誉的女飞行员艾米莉.约翰逊（Emily Johnson），现在就在中国打工赚钱。

产业链在全球的流动是不可逆转的，钱在哪里，人就在哪里，不管是日本的资深退休技工，还是美国的王牌飞行员，他们也随着金钱流动，金钱把他们带向了中国，产业链的升级也就完成在中国。

2022年半导体界发生了一件大事，就是美国不允许美籍人员到中国半导体公司工作，当时也是一片风声鹤唳，一些心性酥软的知识分子，又开始喊完了完了，天要塌了，其实就是历史进程中的一点小波折而已，这些技术人员有的是办法，要么放弃美籍，要么改入其他国籍，只要钱给够，待遇给够，荣誉给够，真的，这世界多的是国际交流人员，拦不住的。

这次美国拼了老命整华为，搞我们的半导体升级，是一种短期效应，你把历史线放长了看，最多拖延了我们半导体十年，十年后我们该怎样还是怎样。

历史的规律不可逆，美国的阻拦只是历史潮流中的一颗小石子，能让我们暂停一下，但不能让我们停止前进。

我们中华民族常出一些极痛恨本民族，恨不得跪在日本人和洋人面前舔食的人，是因为这些人会拿日本人和洋人的利益，但反过来想一想，其他国家也有不少为了赚钱，愿意到国际上出工出力的人，其实大家都差不多。

有阴就有阳，有正就有反，任何事物它都会自己做平衡。

我在北京时，会听到一些知识分子，向我炫耀她儿子进了苹果公司赚美金，那么现在有美国人、日本人为了高收入为我们打工，也是相互作用的，这都是国际交流，说来也不寒碜。

先进工业国是一定会有老技术工人退休，也会有盈余的技术人员找不到工作，这就给了后发工业国机会，只要聘请到这些人，后发工业国有成本优势，就能在产品价格上打败先进工业国。

我想后面这种事也会发生在中国和印度身上，印度将来可能会出挖掘机企业，他们的企业也会高薪聘请三一重工的退休技术工人，那时候我们拦得住这些技术工人出国吗？

拦不住的，不可能拦得住，那只要条件合适，印度的工厂有成本优势，只要他们发挥正常，也会追上我们的。

对于这种历史的轮回，我们要抱着平常心看待，既不要畏惧强敌，也不可自满自鸣，该迎战迎战，该防范防范。

我现在看到国内那些，把美日吹捧上天的软骨头知识分子，反应已经不那么激烈了，我觉得从哲学上看，这叫对冲，这是国际交流人员来到中国做贡献的对冲，凡事有正就有负，有阴就有阳，凡事没有绝对，既然我们拿了国际交流人员的好处，就忍一忍这些软骨头的对冲，也没什么大不了的。

中国能接住全球产业链的转移，除了技术流动外，还有个很重要的规模效应。

我在匹克公司参观时，他们董事长说起匹克鞋面的染色技术，上游比以前有了突飞猛进的发展，匹克才能生产出越来越好看的鞋子，也就是说，这不是一家公司的进步，而是产业链上下游同时进步才有的现象。

这种现象在中国越来越多，是因为中国工业系统全球最全面、工业门类最丰富，是各个行业交织在一起，产生了耦合效应，才使中国制造有了成本优势和技术优势。

江苏有位化学教授，说他跟着政府到处走访企业，发现某个卡脖子的材料，居然用另一个行业的废弃物加工一下就可以平替，这个材料并非做不出来，而是短时间内做不出他们的低能耗低成本高质量，做出普通产品平替一下是没问题的。

那位教授说，这就是行业交叉的优势，只有全球工业体系最全的中国能做到。

技术积累加规模耦合效应，使中国完成技术升级不可逆。

最终使中国工业品能在国际上大杀四方。

2023年4月，中国出口2.02万亿元，增长16.8%，进口1.41万亿元，下降0.8%，贸易顺差达到了6184亿元，比去年4月暴涨96.5%。

这是个离谱到极点的数据。

因为去年的数据已经非常高了，今年居然在这么高的基数下，又干出96.5%的暴涨。

也不只4月，我们前四个月贸易顺差增长了约40%，今年又将出现十分嚣张的贸易顺差。

这说明什么？说明全世界都在找中国买东西，由中国生产好卖给他们。

4月中国出口的主力，由汽车、船舶、汽车零配件、太阳能电池、医疗仪器及器械、箱包、钢材、机电产品等为主，其中最凶的是汽车，增长了195%，船舶则增长了79%。

以后中国廉价劳动力和劳动密集型的产品，外贸会越来越难，而机电高科技产品，则会越来越好。

如果把工业品分为廉价产品、普通产品、中高端产品、高端产品这四大类，那中国已经从以廉价和普通产品为主，转为普通和中高端产品为主。

廉价产品的生产该流失就流失吧，这个也是拦不住的。

而且中国对高端产品的进攻也很猛烈，汽车产业已经基本拿下，手机、半导体本来也快拿下了，但因为这是美国工业的利润池，不允许别人跟他抢，从2019年被打压了下来。

这个拿下来的时间，就因此往后拖延了十年。

也怪不得美国紧张，他们手头民用消费工业领域，硕果仅存的已不太多，苹果公司是他们向全世界树立的标杆，中国已经吃下这么多产业，敞开了向全世界生产工业品，要是手机在2019年被华为攻下来，那小米、OPPO、VIVO估计今天也快跟苹果在销量上有得一拼，美国人的幸福生活，就要下降好大一块。

这事反而从一个侧面说明，美国真的很担心高端领域被我们攻破，时刻紧盯着我们所有可能逆转他们的公司。

但是久守必败，工业的流转过程是不可逆转的，而美国又早在金融上把自己玩坏了，制造业也不知道还能撑到几时。

我坚信美国的高端产业必定流向中国，同时，我也坚信我们的产业，也有一天会有部分流向印度。

当印度三五十年后，也出现他们的华为、三一重工、大疆的时候，我们能阻止华人工程师去帮他们升级吗？

我觉得不能，抓几个人判刑、用道德谴责几个人，都不能阻挡历史规律的发生。

那印度不是有非常严重的土地问题、种姓问题、教育问题吗？

拉长历史线看问题，一切问题都不是问题，现在看起来不可能改变的问题，不过是宏观规律起伏时小小的波纹。

土地问题、种姓问题、教育问题印度现在确实解决不了，但五十年后，一百年后，总会跨过这道坎儿的。

就像我们不相信苏联一夜之间解散，不相信美帝今天衰落到要靠LGBT来掩盖国内矛盾，不相信中国突然进入四十年高速发展期，并无限接近美帝。

世界上以前最先进的技术，包括陶瓷生产、丝绸养蚕、茶叶种植、玻璃制造、蒸汽机、原子弹、电脑，最早开始时都是一国独享，但很快会流入到其他国。

今天光刻机也一样，半导体芯片也一样，躲不过的，这都是命运的轮回，是因果的循环。

我们既要有坚定的勇气，相信会战胜美国对我们的封堵，拿到高端产业链的转移，也要有足够的警惕，为未来国家进入繁荣期后，不让产业链流向印度，不让我们自己美国化而做准备。