low tide camping露营退潮

 low tide camping

The fiery tourism market during the May Day holiday has given a shot in the arm to the industry that has been silent for a long time.

According to data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, from April 29 to May 3, a total of 274 million domestic tourists traveled across the country, recovering to 119.09% of the same period in 2019. With the lifting of travel restrictions, long-distance travel and cross-provincial travel have returned to the mainstream, but the camping business, which has been ripened by the epidemic, has entered a period of reshuffle. In places where people can't see, some camps have collapsed before the arrival of "spring".

Tao Ling (pseudonym) started a camping business in early 2022 and has invested in two campgrounds in Anshun, Guizhou. According to her, the local area has completed a wave of camp reshuffle. "Last year, a company invested more than 2 million yuan and set up more than 100 tents. The geographical environment is also very good, but they couldn't do it, and they lost everything in the end. "

It is not only the camps that have encountered difficulties, but the situation in the upper reaches of the industry is not optimistic.

After the disclosure of the first quarterly report, the share price of Mu Gaodi, which benefited the most from the "camping fever", plummeted by 9%, and then started a fluctuating downward trend. The market value fell by about 60% from the historical high. In addition, Yangzhou Jinquan, the "foundry" of many outdoor brands, has had disputes such as a single business structure and weak performance growth almost since the disclosure of the prospectus.

The trend has passed, and the era of "barbaric growth" of camping has come to an end. Where does the future of the industry go?

false fire shattered

"The phenomenon of campsite closures does exist. This is because the industry is paying for the false prosperity of the past three years." Li Yangjun, executive deputy secretary-general of the Camping Industry Professional Committee of the China Sports Federation, told 36 Krypton.

The industry believes that the outbreak of the domestic camping market began in 2020. Because consumers' understanding of camping was relatively rudimentary at that time, the camping market was mixed, and the prices were generally inflated. Li Yangjun said, "At that time, the gross profit of some camps could even reach 100%. I just invested 500,000 yuan, set up a few tents in the open space, and paid back my capital in one summer."

During the period when the unit price of customers was soaring, entrepreneurs were attracted by the story of "huge profits". According to the data from Tianyancha, in 2020, there will be more than 12,000 newly registered camping-related companies nationwide, and more than 33,000 newly registered companies in 2022, with an average growth rate of 33.3% in the past three years.

For more than a year, camping brands such as Hi King Wild Luxury Camp, ABC Camping, and Dare Wilderness have all received financing support, and listed companies Sanfu Outdoor and Mu Gaodi have also begun to increase their camping business.

The popularity of the camping market has also directly driven the sales of related products. The "2022 Taobao Live "New Camping" Insight Report" shows that in 2022, the overall GMV of the Taobao live camping category will increase by 70% year-on-year, and the unit price will increase by 34% year-on-year. At the performance briefing meeting in May of the same year, Mu Gaodi revealed that orders for some of the company's products have been scheduled until 2023.

In the days when long-distance travel is restricted, camping, as almost the only option for leisure travel, has attracted many platforms to enter the game. But when the boom in the industry faded, hidden problems also surfaced, and camping, which has been hot for three years, finally ushered in a "cooling off period."

The Baidu Index shows that the popularity of the word "camping" hit a high of 3300 during May Day in 2022, and then began to decline all the way. Until the next year when the temperature warmed up and the peak season came again, the popularity of camping picked up, which was only about half of that of the same period last year.

"Camping" Baidu search index change trend

In Li Yangjun's point of view, many camps are facing problems such as unclear positioning and chaotic management. "In the past three years, more than 90% of the camps were not compliant in terms of land and licenses." For consumers, some camps do have worrying service quality and inflated prices.

Therefore, in the process of breaking the circle of camping, the industry failed to survive well, but did a lot of "one-time business". According to Li Yangjun's understanding, the industry's conventional repurchase rate is only a dozen percent.

What is certain is that the days of "put up a few tents and make money" are not coming again.

Foundry, inventory and demand under pressure

As another main line of the camping economy, the upstream equipment market is also facing the problem of fading heat.

The CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that the main business models of my country's outdoor product manufacturers are OEM and ODM, and most of their customers are well-known overseas brands and retailers.

For example, the major customers of Mugaodi's OEM/ODM business are Decathlon, Go outdoors, Kmart and other brands; Yangzhou Jinquan, which also specializes in tents, mainly serves internationally renowned brands such as Coleman, The North Face, and Fjallraven.

It is easy to hold on to big customers, but the seemingly stable OEM business also limits the company's long-term development capabilities. And under the pressure of demand, the risk of international trade policy and exchange loss goes hand in hand.

Mu Gaodi predicts that in 2023, the revenue of foundry business will decline by 15%. Yangzhou Jinquan, which relies entirely on its major overseas customers for its own development, is facing a more difficult situation. Data show that in the past three years, Yangzhou Jinquan's export revenue accounted for nearly 98% of its main business, and the sales revenue from the top six customers accounted for nearly 80%.

The lack of the support of independent brands not only makes Yangzhou Jinquan miss the growth dividend of the domestic camping market, but also greatly reduces its profit space. From 2020 to 2022, the comprehensive gross profit margins of its main business will be 21.3%, 21%, and 27.4%, respectively, which are lower than the industry average.

In addition, according to the prospectus of Yangzhou Jinquan, after the technical transformation project of the company's production line is completed, it will add an annual production capacity of 250,000 tents and 350,000 sleeping bags, an increase of 82% and 22% respectively compared with 2021. However, as the company's production capacity utilization rate in the first half of 2022 is less than 90%, it is still doubtful whether Yangzhou Jinquan's new production capacity can be absorbed by the market.

In order to adjust the gross profit rate and get rid of the situation of being controlled by others, in the past two years, domestic camping equipment OEMs have successively begun to develop their own brands.

Comparison of the price bands of the main products of the camping brand, source: CITIC Securities

According to financial report data, in 2022, Mugaodi's own brand revenue will account for nearly 50% of revenue. Yangzhou Jinquan also stated in the prospectus that if a company develops its own brand, it will put forward higher requirements for funds.

According to data from CITIC Securities, the market share of each brand of camping equipment in 2021 will be around single digits, the competition pattern is extremely fragmented, and the position of leading domestic companies is not stable. And with the slowdown in demand growth and the increase in corporate inventories, the signs of a price war have emerged.

By the end of 2022, Mugaodi's inventory has reached 696 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31%, of which 409 million yuan is inventory. As of the end of the first quarter, the company's inventory was still 664 million yuan, accounting for 51% of the total assets.

Li Yangjun told 36 Krypton that in 2022, the upstream enterprises of outdoor equipment are generally optimistic about the market forecast, and the industry is increasing its horsepower and expanding production in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, the camping scene was restricted due to repeated epidemics, and leading brands began to take the lead in discounting inventory.

The Huaxi Securities Research Report also pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the price wars launched by brands such as Primitives and Explorers have had a greater impact on the industry. It is expected that Mu Gaodi's profitability will be under pressure in the first half of the year.

Competition "upgrade"

From the perspective of practitioners, although the "camping fever" spawned by the epidemic is a false fire, it has objectively accelerated the market education of camping culture. In the long run, the entire industry still has a lot of room for growth.

According to data from Soochow Securities, the penetration rate of China’s camping industry is about 1%, while the penetration rate in developed countries such as the United States and Japan is in the range of 10% to 20%. Among the camping equipment brands, Mogaodi’s gross profit rate is 30%, compared with the 55% gross profit level of the Japanese brand “Snow Peak”, which is also transformed from an OEM factory, there is still a lot of room for improvement.

iiMedia Consulting predicts that the core market size of China's camping economy will rise to 248.32 billion yuan in 2025, driving the market size to 1440.28 billion yuan.

A camp manager told 36 Krypton that compared with overseas outdoor culture, domestic “exquisite camping” has stronger social and sharing attributes. Under the general trend of competing for "upgrade", frisbee, script killing, and barbecue have become the basic configuration of camping, and music festivals, plantations, kayaks, hot air balloons and other projects have also begun to appear in the ranks of "camping +".

Zhang Yi, chief analyst of iiMedia Consulting, believes that the camping industry should not be understood as an isolated form of business, nor is it a "tourism replacement", but an emerging leisure scene that meets people's outdoor needs.

Li Yangjun also said that the single campsite with the highest investment in China has reached the level of 100 million yuan. It is equipped with hotels, container wooden houses and villas. "It is actually done in the way of a comprehensive resort."

Judging from the current market movements of the head camp, the expansion continues. According to the news from "HUI", "51Camp" made a strategic investment and acquired "GoSafari" at the end of last year. "Hi King" has a minimum guarantee target of 100 stores this year, and will hit 200 stores.

In the face of increasingly differentiated user needs and potential market space, camping equipment brand owners are also repeatedly mentioning the importance of new product development. However, it is still unclear whether the supply chain level of domestic outdoor products can meet the needs of brand owners.

For the whole year of 2022, Mugaodi's research and development investment amounted to 36.1537 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42%, but only accounted for 2.52% of operating income. In Yangzhou Jinquan’s prospectus, from 2019 to 2021, its parent company’s R&D expenses accounted for 3.16%, 3.52% and 3.47% of the same period, respectively, which can be regarded as just passing the 3% requirement for high-tech enterprises’ R&D expense ratio.

As the tide of traffic recedes, the competition in the camping industry has become more intense. The previous extensive model will soon be eliminated, and players large and small in the domestic camping chain will inevitably face greater pressure in terms of supply chain, inventory and even profitability.

露营退潮

五一假期旅游市场的火热，给沉寂已久的行业注入了一针强心剂。

文旅部数据显示，4月29日至5月3日，全国国内旅游出游合计2.74亿人次，恢复至2019年同期的119.09%。伴随出行限制的解除，长线游、跨省游再度回归主流，被疫情催熟的露营生意却步入洗牌期。在人们看不到的地方，有的营地已倒在了“春天”到来之前。

陶玲（化名）2022年初开始露营创业，已在贵州安顺投资了两家露营地。据她所言，当地已经完成了一波营地的洗牌出清，“去年有一家投资200多万、搭了100多个帐篷，地理环境也很好，就是做不起来，最后血本无归。”

遭遇困顿的不止营地，行业上游的情况也不算乐观。

一季报披露后，“露营热”中获益最多的牧高笛股价大跌9%，随后开启震荡下挫走势，市值较历史高点跌去约六成。此外，诸多户外品牌的“代工厂”扬州金泉，几乎从披露招股书起就存在业务结构单一、业绩增长乏力等争议。

风口已逝，露营“野蛮生长”的时代落下帷幕，行业的未来何去何从？

虚火破灭

“露营地倒闭的现象的确存在，这是行业在为过去三年的虚假繁荣买单。”中体联露营产业专业委员会常务副秘书长李洋君告诉36氪。

业内认为，国内露营市场的热度爆发始于2020年。由于当时消费者对露营的认识相对初级，营地市场鱼龙混杂，定价普遍虚高。李洋君表示，“当时有营地的毛利甚至能做到100%，随便投了50万，在空地支几个帐篷，一个夏天就回本了。”

在客单价高涨的时期，创业者们被“暴利”的故事吸引入局。天眼查数据显示，2020年，全国露营相关企业新增注册达1.2万余家，2022年新注册企业达3.3万余家，近三年平均增速达33.3%。

前后一年多的时间里，嗨King野奢营地、ABC Camping、大热荒野等露营品牌均获得融资加持，上市公司三夫户外及牧高笛也开始加码营地生意。

露营市场的火爆，也直接带动了关联产品的销量。《2022年淘宝直播“新式露营”洞察报告》显示，2022年淘宝直播露营品类GMV整体同比去年增长70%，客单价同比去年增长34%。同年5月的业绩说明会上，牧高笛透露，公司部分产品的订单已排到了2023年。

在远距离出行受限的日子里，露营作为休闲出游的几乎唯一选项，吸引了众多平台入局。但当行业热潮褪去，潜藏的问题也浮出水面，火热了三年的露营终于迎来“冷静期”。

百度指数显示，“露营”一词的热度在2022年五一期间触及3300的高点，随后开始一路下滑。直到转年气温回暖、旺季再度到来，露营热度有所回升，也仅达到去年同期的一半左右。

“露营”百度搜索指数变化趋势

在李洋君的观点中，不少营地面临定位不清、管理混乱等问题，“过去三年有90%以上的营地在土地、证照方面是不合规的”。对于消费者来说，部分营地确实服务质量堪忧、价格虚高。

也因此，在露营的破圈过程中，行业未能很好地留存，而是做了大量的“一次性生意”。据李洋君了解，行业常规的复购率只有百分之十几的水平。

可以确定的是，“搭几个帐篷就能赚钱”的日子不会再来。

代工、库存与需求承压

作为露营经济的另一条主线，上游装备市场同样面临热度消退的问题。

中信证券研报指出，我国户外用品生产企业最主要的经营模式为OEM和ODM代工模式，且客户多为海外知名品牌商及零售商。

例如，牧高笛OEM/ODM业务的大客户是迪卡侬、Go outdoors、Kmart等品牌；同样专业做帐篷的扬州金泉，则主要服务于Coleman、The North Face、Fjallraven等国际知名品牌。

抱紧大客户的日子固然轻松，但看似稳定的代工业务，也限制了企业的长期发展能力。且在需求承压之下，国际贸易政策、汇兑损失的风险如影随形。

牧高笛预计，2023年全年代工业务收入降幅将达到15%。将自身发展完全系在海外大客户身上的扬州金泉，面临的情况更为棘手。数据显示，近三年，扬州金泉外销收入占主营业务的比例接近98%，前六大客户销售收入占比近八成。

缺乏自主品牌的加持，不仅使扬州金泉错失了国内露营市场的增长红利，也大大压缩了其盈利的空间。2020年至2022年，其主营业务的综合毛利率分别为21.3%、21%、27.4%，低于行业平均水平。

此外，据扬州金泉招股书，公司生产线技术改造项目达产后，将新增年产25万顶帐篷以及年产35万条睡袋的生产能力，较比2021年分别增长82%、22%。但在公司2022年上半年产能利用率未及90%的情况下，扬州金泉的新增产能能否被市场消化，仍然存疑。

为调节毛利率、摆脱受制于人的局面，近两年，国内露营装备代工企业陆续开始发展自有品牌。

露营品牌主要产品价格带对比，图源：中信证券

财报数据显示，2022年，牧高笛自有品牌收入占比近五成。扬州金泉也在招股书中表示，企业若发展自有品牌，将对资金提出更高的要求。

中信证券数据显示，2021年各品牌露营装备市占率均在个位数左右，竞争格局极为分散，国内头部企业的地位并不稳固。且随着需求增速的放缓、企业库存增加，价格战的苗头已显现。

2022年底，牧高笛存货已达6.96亿元，同比增长31%，其中库存商品为4.09亿元。截至一季度末，公司存货仍有6.64亿元，占总资产比重达51%。

李洋君告诉36氪，2022年，户外装备的上游企业对市场的预估普遍比较乐观，上半年行业都在加大马力扩产。到了下半年，露营场景在疫情反复下受到限制，头部品牌开始带头打折清库存。

华西证券研报也指出，今年以来，原始人、探险者等品牌发起的价格战对行业冲击较大，预计牧高笛上半年盈利能力将承压。

竞争“升维”

站在从业者的角度来看，疫情催生的“露营热”虽是虚火，客观上却加速了露营文化的市场教育。长远来看，整个行业仍有非常大的增长空间。

东吴证券数据显示，中国露营行业渗透率约1%，美国、日本等发达国家的渗透率则在10%至20%的区间内。露营装备品牌商中，牧高笛的毛利率在30%，较比同样是代工厂转型而来的日本品牌“Snow Peak”55%的毛利水平，仍有很大的提升空间。

艾媒咨询预计，2025年中国露营经济核心市场规模将上升至2483.2亿元，带动市场规模将达到14402.8亿元。

有营地主理人对36氪表示，与海外的户外文化相比，国内“精致露营”的社交和分享属性更强。在竞争“升维”的普遍趋势下，飞盘、剧本杀、烧烤已经成为露营的基础配置，音乐节、种植园、皮划艇、热气球等项目也开始出现在“露营+”的行列里。

艾媒咨询首席分析师张毅认为，露营产业不应被理解为一个孤立存在的业态，也并非“旅游平替”，而是一个满足人们户外需求的新兴休闲场景。

李洋君也表示，国内投资最高的单体营地已经达到了亿元级别，配置酒店、集装箱木屋、别墅，“实则是在按照综合度假体的方式做了”。

从头部营地目前的市场动作来看，扩张扔在继续。据“营地会HUI”消息，“51Camp”去年底战略投资和并购了“GoSafari”，作为其在广东地区的运营团队，今年总的大目标要做到100家。“嗨king”今年保底目标100家，冲200家。

面对日益分化的用户需求和潜在的市场空间，露营装备品牌商也在反复提及新品研发的重要性。不过，国内户外用品的供应链水平能否满足品牌商的需求仍未可知。

2022年全年，牧高笛研发投入金额为3615.37万元，同比增长42%，却仅占营业收入比重的2.52%。在扬州金泉的招股书内，2019年至2021年，其母公司研发费用占同期比分别为3.16%、3.52%及3.47%，算是刚刚迈过高新技术企业研发费用率3%的要求。

随着流量潮水退去，露营行业竞争激烈程度更上一层楼。以往粗放式的模式很快会被淘汰，国内露营链条上的大小玩家，必然会在供应链、库存乃至盈利方面面临更大的压力。