Infinite Possibilities of the Butterfly Effect: Going forward and subverting the world pattern!无限可能的蝴蝶效应：高歌猛进颠覆世界格局！

Infinite Possibilities of the Butterfly Effect: Going forward and subverting the world pattern!

On May 5, 2023, the first meeting of the 20th Central Finance and Economics Committee was held. The meeting emphasized the need to speed up the construction of a modern industrial system supported by the real economy. Insist on promoting the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and cannot simply withdraw from them as "low-end industries".

As the largest manufacturing country in the world, China has been constantly exploring how to enhance its competitiveness on the world stage. The development of medium and high-end industries is the only way to realize the great rejuvenation of Chinese civilization in the rise of China!

Over the years, China has been promoting industrial upgrading and has introduced many supporting policies. However, there have always been different opinions on the way of industrial upgrading.

On June 20, 2021, Fan Gang, a well-known Chinese economist, professor of economics at Peking University HSBC Business School, and director of the China Shenzhen Comprehensive Development Research Institute, a national high-end think tank, proposed at the "2021 Phoenix.com (Summer) Finance and Economics Summit": China Now, low-end industries can be transferred out without relying on the development of demographic dividends. China now does not rely on demographic dividends to develop, but relies on knowledge, technology, education, etc., and relies on improving the quality of human capital to develop. This is a new stage. Transferring some low-end industries can better develop high-end industries. Taking South Korea as an example in the 1980s, he said that China can also concentrate on the development of mid-to-high end.

Seeing Fan Gang's point of view at the time, the Han and Tang think tanks wrote an article clearly opposing it.

Although China's economy needs to achieve industrial upgrading and develop into global high-end industries, low-end industries have important social significance for solving the employment of China's huge labor force. More importantly, with the implementation of the U.S. policy of isolationism to contain China, it is necessary for the Chinese economy to maintain a production system of all categories, high, medium and low, and the entire industrial chain.

On the basis of maintaining the original advantages of low-end industries, it is the most secure development strategy to actively adjust the domestic economic layout and promote the development of mid-to-high-end industries according to local conditions.

So, what kind of difficulties does China face in promoting industrial upgrading and developing mid-to-high-end industries? How will the competitiveness and market space of high-end industries in other countries be affected after the rise of China? This is also a topic we need to study.

1. Medium and high-end industry types

The so-called mid-to-high-end industries refer to industries with high added value, high technology content, and high innovation capabilities, which have strong market competitiveness.

Mid-to-high-end products have strong competitiveness in the market.

Many people are willing to spend more time and money on innovative products. This is because mid-to-high-end products have higher technological content than ordinary products, which can improve people's quality of life, meet their needs for personalization, exclusiveness, and customization, and bring better user experience.

Generally speaking, mid-to-high-end products are more suitable for consumers who have higher requirements for user experience and quality.

With the improvement of people's living standards, the demand for high-end products continues to increase. This is a major factor for the rapid development of mid-to-high-end industries around the world.

Globally, there are various types of mid-to-high-end industries. Here are a few major categories:

1. High-end equipment manufacturing industry: such as aerospace equipment, marine engineering equipment, rail transit equipment, etc.

2. The new generation of information technology industry: such as computer, communication, Internet, etc.

3. Biomedical industry: such as biopharmaceuticals, high-end medical equipment, biopesticides, etc.

4. New material industry: such as rare earth materials, new energy materials, high-performance materials, etc.

5. Environmental protection and new energy industries: such as wind power, solar energy, hydropower, biomass energy, etc.

6. High-end service industry: such as finance, law, accounting, real estate, etc.

Through the above classification, we can find that the types of mid-to-high-end industries are different, but they all have one thing in common, that is, they are all in the stage of technological innovation and knowledge-intensive.

This is also an important reason to maintain high added value and innovative capabilities.

2. The relationship between production capacity and market of medium and high-end industries

If China wants to develop mid-to-high-end industries, two prerequisites are inseparable. One is technological innovation; the other is industrial layout to increase production capacity.

If there is technology but no production capacity, it will not be able to meet market demand. If there is production capacity but no technology, it cannot be called a high-end industry.

Whether it is scientific and technological innovation or production capacity improvement, it requires comprehensive support from national strategies, policy support and funds.

The promotion of government policies is an important guarantee for the sustainable development of high-end industries.

The "Made in China 2025" strategy is an important development plan for mid-to-high-end manufacturing. It will cultivate a group of "Chinese brands" with high added value, and increase production capacity through multi-dimensional measures such as technology introduction, innovative research and development, and personnel training to meet the market's demand for mid-to-high-end products.

When the United States launched an anti-China trade war in 2018, one of the negotiation conditions proposed was to require China to abandon the "Made in China 2025" strategy, on the grounds that it posed a challenge to the high-end industries of the United States. Of course China will not agree to this hegemonic claim. It is absurd that until today, the United States still requires China not to develop the industries that the United States currently has advantages in!

In addition to the above-mentioned macro factors at the national level, China's development of mid-to-high-end industries also needs to face problems such as high domestic manufacturing costs and scarcity of talents.

Among them, talent bottleneck is an important factor restricting the development of high-end industries. In technology-intensive industries, talents play a vital role in the development of enterprises.

To solve the problem of talents, on the one hand, it is necessary to improve the level of higher education, and on the other hand, it is necessary to actively attract talents with scientific and technological innovation capabilities to return to China from abroad.

This requires actively improving our technology innovation strategies and policies, and launching a more active talent policy. The story of a thousand pieces of gold buying horse bones in ancient China is the best reference model for recruiting talents.

Increased efforts to attract Chinese researchers who have studied abroad over the years to return to China will play an important role in enhancing technological and economic competitiveness.

In recent years, the United States has closely monitored and persecuted Chinese talents in the United States for no reason. On the one hand, it has increased the obstacles for us to attract talents to return;

Only by returning to China can the Chinese get all-round security and dignity.

3. The impact of the rise of China's mid-to-high-end industries on the world

As China becomes a global economic power, the industrial competition with developed countries in the United States and Europe will become increasingly fierce. The rise of China's mid-to-high-end industries has an inevitable impact on similar industries in developed countries.

This is also the reason why developed countries in the United States and Europe have taken various unreasonable measures to restrict China's development of high-end industries.

Difficulties in industrial competition between China and foreign countries are mainly reflected in talent competition, intellectual property protection, investment in research and development, and system and cultural differences.

In this context, the difficulties in the competition between China and foreign industries mainly include the following aspects:

1. Talent competition

Innovative talents are the key to supporting the development of a new generation of industries.

The talent competition between China and the United States and Europe has already started. On the one hand, it is a competition at the national level, and on the other hand, it is a competition at the enterprise level. This requires an all-round improvement of competitiveness in terms of talent recruitment, training, and retention.

We need to see that the talent strategies of developed countries are very mature, which can not only provide higher salaries and benefits, but also pay more attention to career planning and development of employees.

In recent years, the return rate of Chinese talents studying abroad has reached 80%. According to data, in 2021, the number of overseas Chinese returning to China for innovation and entrepreneurship will exceed 1 million for the first time.

2. Intellectual property protection

Intellectual property protection is an important guarantee for promoting the development of national industries. While protecting your own intellectual property rights, you must also protect the intellectual property rights of others. For Chinese companies, both infringement and being infringed are very serious problems. This is a huge obstacle to industrial upgrading.

In recent years, China's efforts and achievements in intellectual property protection have been highly recognized by all parties: the social satisfaction of domestic intellectual property protection has increased to more than 80 points; the ranking in the global innovation index report released by the World Intellectual Property Organization has risen to 14th , ranking first among middle-income economies.

3. R&D investment

R&D investment is an important pillar supporting industrial development. In the mid-to-high-end industry, leading companies usually invest huge sums of money in technological innovation and research and development. Input from every aspect of the product, design, process, to manufacture and use. Only in this way can the added value and technical content of the products be truly improved, thereby occupying the market.

R&D investment requires a lot of funds and excellent talents, and there is a long way to go in this regard.

In 2022, my country's total social research and experimental development (R&D) investment will reach 3,087 billion yuan, an increase of 10.4% over the previous year. R&D investment intensity jumped to a new height of 2.5%.

From an international perspective, my country's R&D expenditure intensity ranks 12th among major countries in the world, surpassing innovative countries such as France (2.35%) and the Netherlands (2.32%), and getting closer to the average level of OECD countries (2.67%). China's scientific and technological innovation performance ranks 11th among 132 economies, an increase of one place from the previous year; since 2013, my country's ranking has increased by 24 places, maintaining a steady upward trend for 10 consecutive years.

4. Institutional and cultural differences

Institutional and cultural differences are one of the difficulties for China to compete with developed countries in the United States and Europe.

Different countries and regions have different policies and legal systems, which will affect the operation and development of enterprises at any time.

The experience of Xiaomi in India is the most tragic example.

During the Labor Day holiday in 2023, Xiaomi India was seized by the Indian law enforcement authorities of Xiaomi Group's deposits of 55.5 billion rupees in India, which is about 4.8 billion yuan.

At the beginning of this year, Xiaomi India was chased by the Indian government for 6.53 billion rupees, about 560 million yuan, on the grounds of tax evasion.

In the two incidents, Xiaomi was fined 5.36 billion yuan by the Indian government in the same way.

Xiaomi has been operating in India for ten years, and all its profits have been robbed by the Indian government. What about development?

Chinese enterprises need to understand and adapt to the systems and cultures of various countries in order to better safeguard their own interests.

4. The Butterfly Effect of Chinese and Foreign Industrial Competition

The competition between China and developed countries around mid-to-high-end industries will become increasingly fierce.

With the development of China's mid-to-high-end industries, on the one hand, developed countries may promote the adjustment of their own mid-to-high-end industries and improve their competitiveness through technical cooperation and technology introduction; on the other hand, affected by factors such as labor costs, China There will also be various industrial transfers in the process of the rise of mid-to-high-end industries.

The butterfly effect brought about by the mid-to-high-end industry competition between China and the United States and Europe is complex and extensive:

It will change the industrial structure worldwide and disrupt the international division of labor system arranged by the United States;

With the increasingly fierce competition, it can promote technological upgrading and innovation, promote the emergence of new technologies and new products, and continuously improve the quality and efficiency of the industry;

Competition for talent on an international scale will intensify as competition intensifies, with more inclusive countries gaining an advantage;

Drawing on the state of competition between Britain and Germany before the outbreak of the First World War, it is not ruled out that industrial competition will lead to more intense international conflicts!

无限可能的蝴蝶效应：高歌猛进颠覆世界格局！

2023年5月5日，二十届中央财经委员会第一次会议召开。会议强调，加快建设以实体经济为支撑的现代化产业体系。坚持推动传统产业转型升级，不能当成“低端产业”简单退出。

中国作为世界上最大的制造业国家，一直在不断探索如何提升在世界舞台上的竞争力。中高端产业的发展，是实现中国崛起中华文明伟大复兴的必经之路！

多年以来，中国一直推动产业升级，并配套出台了诸多政策。但是关于产业升级的方式，一直有不同的说法。

2021年6月20日，中国著名经济学家、北京大学汇丰商学院经济学教授、国家高端智库中国深圳综合开发研究院院长樊纲，在“2021凤凰网（夏季）财经峰会”上提出：中国现在不靠人口红利发展 可以将低端产业转移出去。中国现在不靠人口红利发展了，要靠知识、科技、教育等，要靠提高人力资本的质量去发展，这是一个新的阶段。把一些低端的产业转移出去可以更好的发展高端。他以韩国80年代举例，表示中国也可以集中精力向中高端发展。

当时看到樊纲的观点，汉唐智库撰文明确反对。

中国经济固然要实现产业升级，向全球中高端产业发展，但低端产业对解决中国庞大的劳动力就业有着重要的社会意义。更重要的是，随着美国孤立主义遏制中国政策的实施，中国经济有必要保持全门类高中低全产业链的生产体系。

在保持原有低端产业优势的基础上，积极调整国内经济布局，因地制宜推动中高端产业的发展，这是最稳妥的发展战略。

那么，中国推动产业升级，发展中高端产业到底面临什么样的困难？中国崛起后其他国家中高端产业的竞争力和市场空间又会受到怎样的影响？这同样是我们需要研究的课题。

一、中高端产业类型

所谓中高端产业是指高附加值、高技术含量、高创新能力的产业，具备很强的市场竞争力。

中高端产品在市场中有着很强的竞争力。

很多人愿意花费更多的时间和金钱购买创新型产品。这是因为中高端产品相对于普通产品来说，科技含量高，可以提高人们的生活品质，满足他们对于个性化、专属、定制化的需求，带来更好的用户体验。

总体来说，中高端产品更适合那些对使用体验和品质要求较高的消费者。

随着人们生活水平的提高，中高端产品的需求不断增加。这是中高端产业在全世界范围内发展迅速的一个主要因素。

全球范围内，中高端产业的种类多种多样，以下列举几个大类别：

1、高端装备制造业：如航空航天装备、海洋工程设备、轨道交通装备等。

2、新一代信息技术产业：如计算机、通信、互联网等。

3、生物医药产业：如生物制药、高端医疗器械、生物农药等。

4、新材料产业：如稀土材料、新型能源材料、高性能材料等。

5、环保和新能源产业：如风电、太阳能、水电、生物质能等。

6、高端服务业：如金融、法律、会计、房地产等。

通过上述分类，我们可以发现中高端产业类型不尽相同，但都有一个共同点，那就是都处于技术创新和知识密集阶段。

这也是保持高附加值和创新能力的重要原因。

二、中高端产业产能与市场关系

中国要发展中高端产业，离不开两个前提，一是科技创新；二是产业布局，提升产能。

有技术而无产能，则无法满足市场需求。有产能而无技术，则称不上高端产业。

无论是科技创新还是产能提升，都需要国家战略、政策扶持和资金的全面支持。

政府政策的推动是中高端产业可持续发展的重要保障。

“中国制造2025”战略是针对中高端制造业的一项重要发展规划。它将培育一批高附加值的“中国品牌”，通过技术引进、创新研发、人才培养等多维度措施，提升产能，以满足市场对中高端产品的需求。

2018年美国发动反华贸易战时，提出的一个谈判条件就是要求中国放弃“中国制造2025”战略，理由是对美国高端产业构成了挑战。中国当然不会答应这种霸权要求。荒唐的是，直到今天，美国依然要求中国不能发展美国目前的优势产业！

除了上述国家层面的宏观要素之外，中国发展中高端产业还需要面对国内制造成本高、人才稀缺等问题。

其中，人才瓶颈是制约中高端产业发展的重要因素。在技术密集型产业中，人才对于企业发展具有至关重要的作用。

要解决人才问题，一方面是提高高等教育的水平，另一方面需要积极吸引具有科技创新能力的人才从国外回流中国。

这就需要积极改善我们的科技创新战略和政策，推出更加积极地人才政策。中国古代千金买马骨的故事，是招贤纳士的最佳参考样板。

加大力度吸引中国历年赴国外留学的科研人员回国，对提升科技和经济竞争力有着重要的作用。

美国近年对中国在美人才严密监控，无端迫害，一方面增加了我们吸引人才回流的障碍；另一方面也让中国居美人员心寒至极。

中国人还是回到中国才能得到全方位的安全保障和尊严。

三、中国中高端产业崛起对世界的影响

随着中国成为全球经济强国，与美欧发达国家的产业竞争将越来越激烈。中国中高端产业的崛起对发达国家同类型产业的影响无法避免。

这也是美欧发达国家采取种种无理措施限制中国发展中高端产业的原因。

中外产业竞争的难点主要体现在人才竞争、知识产权保护、投入研发、制度文化差异等方面。

在这个背景下，中国和外国产业竞争的难点主要有以下几个方面：

1、人才竞争

创新型人才是支撑新一代产业发展的关键。

中国与美欧的人才争夺战早已展开，一方面是国家层面的竞争，一方面是企业层面的竞争。这需要人才招聘、培养、保留等方面全方位提升竞争力。

我们需要看到，发达国家的人才战略非常成熟，不仅可以提供更高的薪酬和福利待遇，更注重对员工的职业规划和发展。

近年，中国出国留学人才回国率达到80%，数据显示,2021年中国回国创新创业的留学人员首次超过100万。

2、知识产权保护

知识产权保护是推进民族产业发展的重要保障。在护持自己的知识产权的同时，更要保障他人的知识产权。对于中国企业来说，侵权和被侵权都是非常严峻的问题。这是产业升级的一个巨大障碍。

近几年，中国保护知识产权的努力和成效得到各方面高度认可：国内知识产权保护社会满意度提高到80分以上；在世界知识产权组织发布的全球创新指数报告中的排名提升到第14位，位居中等收入经济体之首。

3、研发投入

研发投入是支撑产业发展的重要支柱。在中高端产业领域，领先企业通常会投入巨资用于技术创新和研发。从产品的方方面面、设计、工艺到制造和使用阶段进行投入。这样才能真正提高产品的附加值和技术含量，从而占领市场。

研发投入需要大量的资金和优秀的人才，这方面任重而道远。

2022年，我国全社会研究与试验发展（R&D）经费投入达到30870亿元，比上年增长10.4%。R&D经费投入强度跃上2.5%的新高度。

从国际比较看，我国R&D经费投入强度在世界主要国家中排名第12位，超过法国（2.35%）、荷兰（2.32%）等创新型国家，并进一步接近OECD国家平均水平（2.67%）。中国科技创新表现在132个经济体中位列第11位，较上年再提升1位；自2013年起我国的排名已提升了24个位次，连续10年保持稳定上升势头。

4. 制度和文化差异

制度和文化差异是中国与美欧发达国家竞争的难点之一。

不同国家、地区的政策和法律制度不尽相同，随时会影响到企业的运作和发展。

小米在印度的遭遇，就是最悲惨的例子。

2023年五一劳动节期间，小米印度公司被印度执法当局扣押了小米集团在印度的555亿卢比存款，大约是48亿人民币。

今年年初，小米印度公司被印度政府以逃税为由追缴65.3亿卢比，大约5.6亿人民币。

两次事件，小米就被印度政府以同样的方式罚款53.6亿人民币的巨款。

小米在印度经营十年，所有的利润基本都被印度政府抢了。还谈什么发展？

中国企业需要对各国制度和文化进行理解和适应，才能更好地维护自己的利益。

四、中外产业竞争的蝴蝶效应

中国和发达国家围绕中高端产业的竞争，将越来越激烈。

随着中国中高端产业的发展，一方面，发达国家可能会通过技术合作和技术引进来推动其自身的中高端产业的调整，提高竞争力；另一方面，受人工成本等因素的影响，中国中高端产业崛起的过程也会有各种产业转移。

中国与美欧的中高端产业竞争带来的蝴蝶效应复杂而广泛：

将改变世界范围内的产业格局，打乱美国安排的国际分工体系；

随着竞争的日渐激烈，可以推动技术升级和创新，推动新技术、新产品的出现，不断提升产业的质量和效率；

随着竞争加剧，国际范围内的人才竞争将加剧，更具包容性的国家更具优势；

借鉴第一次世界大战爆发前英国和德国的竞争状态，不排除因为产业竞争引发更剧烈的国际冲突！