In April 2023, China's foreign trade surplus soared by 96.5%2023年4月，中国对外贸易顺差暴涨96.5%

 In April 2023, China's foreign trade surplus soared by 96.5%

China's latest foreign trade data has come out, because the results are too outrageous, so I think it is necessary to talk about it separately.

In April 2023, China exported 2.02 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.8%, and imported 1.41 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.8%.

There was an unusually huge gap in the growth rate of imports and exports, which directly led to China's trade surplus soaring to 618.44 billion yuan in April, a surge of 96.5% year-on-year in April last year.

This is an extremely outrageous data, because last year our surplus was originally a high-base growth, and the percentage growth rate and absolute value both hit record highs. The outrageous figure of 96.5%.

Some people say that April alone does not mean anything, so I specially summarized the data from January to April this year, and then summarized it with the data from January to April last year, and then made a comparative figure.

From January to April 2022, China exported 6.97 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.3%, imported 5.61 trillion yuan, an increase of 5%, and had a trade surplus of 1.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 39.2%.

If it is denominated in US dollars, it is a surplus of 212.93 billion US dollars.

The first four months of 2022 will be the year when China's trade surplus will break out. In just four months, it has achieved a surplus of more than 200 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 39.2%.

This outrageous growth rate directly shocked the world. We must know that China is the second largest economic power in the world. What is the concept of such a large economic power with a 39.2% surplus increase!

At this rate, we can achieve a surplus of more than 600 billion US dollars in 12 months of the year.

But in fact, in the 12 months of 2022, our surplus is not more than 600 billion US dollars, but 877.6 billion US dollars, because the surplus is expanding every month and continues to expand.

This trend of surplus expansion continued after this year, resulting in a greater year-on-year growth.

From January to April 2023, China exported 7.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.6%, and imported 5.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.02%. It achieved a trade surplus of 2.02 trillion yuan, an increase of 56.7% compared with January to April 2022.

The 39.2% year-on-year surplus in the first four months of last year has shocked the world. From January to April this year, on the premise of last year’s high growth and high base, it actually increased by 56.7% again, especially in April when the figure of 96.5% jumped out.

You say outrageous or not?

No surplus can cause huge economic problems, but too much surplus can cause economic problems.

Last year, China already had a headache on how to spend its surplus of more than 800 billion U.S. dollars, and was unwilling to buy U.S. debt, so it took advantage of the U.S. interest rate hike and the global shortage of U.S. dollars to lend others U.S. dollars everywhere, asking other countries short of U.S. dollars to borrow US dollars to renminbi.

On the one hand, it shatters the dream of the United States trying to use interest rate hikes to create a waste of dollars for other countries, and on the other hand, it promotes the renminbi.

However, if the surge in surplus this year continues, the surplus for the whole year is likely to exceed one trillion U.S. dollars.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is going to visit one by one again, asking whether other countries are short of US dollars, and whether they want to borrow some from us, the terms are easy to negotiate. . .

China's export growth rate was 10% last year, and it is also 10% this year. This is a very astonishing figure, but it is not bad. It is not as scary as the 50% growth rate when the surplus is always there.

The reason for such a large surplus growth rate is entirely because the growth rate of imports has not kept up with exports.

In the first four months of last year, import growth was only 5%.

In the first four months of this year, import growth was only 0.02%.

All are far below the export growth rate of more than 10%.

What happened, why is China's import growth rate so low?

I checked the data again, mainly looking at the structure of my country's import and export. This time it was more interesting, because the reason for the large increase in China's exports and the lack of increase in imports is actually the same.

What are China's foreign exchange-earning products made up of?

Many people blurted out that labor-intensive products, clothing, socks and other textiles, all rely on sweatshops to earn foreign exchange. I have seen the story of China trading 100 million shirts for airplanes since childhood.

It doesn't matter whether it was before or not, what matters is that it is no longer.

From January to April 2023, mechanical and electrical products in China's export products increased by 10.5%, with a value of 4.44 trillion yuan, accounting for 57.9% of the total export value, which is an absolute bulk.

The export of labor-intensive products was 1.31 trillion yuan, accounting for only 17.1% of the total export value.

Mechanical and electrical products have become China's largest exporter, while shirts and socks have long been a minor exporter.

What are mechanical and electrical products?

Just look at the reasons for the sharp drop in Chinese imports.

From January to April this year, the value of China's imported mechanical and electrical products dropped by 14.4%, of which imported integrated circuits fell by 21.1%, with a drop of 724 billion yuan, and imported cars fell by 28.9%, with an amount of about 100.4 billion yuan.

The export of Chinese automobiles surged by 120.3% year-on-year, which is the most exaggerated growth rate among export products. Overwhelming Chinese automobiles are piled up in the port waiting to be exported.

While China's auto exports soared by 120.3%, imports plummeted by 28.9%. This import and export directly led to a dramatic expansion of China's trade surplus in the auto sector.

For 40 years, China has been a country with a deficit in the automobile trade. It spends foreign exchange to buy foreign automobiles all the year round, and its imports are far greater than its exports.

However, in 2022, China achieved a surplus in the field of automobile trade for the first time, earning a surplus of 380 billion yuan for China throughout the year.

In the first four months of 2023, China's auto exports will surge again by 120%, while imports will plummet again by 28.9%.

Although the detailed data has not yet been released, there is no need to look at it. With such a large gap in the growth rate of imports and exports, the surplus will inevitably increase sharply. The automobile industry will soon become China's foreign exchange giant.

Automobiles are the largest consumer goods except housing, and all automobile powerhouses are developed countries without exception.

In addition to automobiles, the second major drop in imports of electromechanical products is integrated circuits.

What is an integrated circuit?

An integrated circuit is not necessarily a chip, but a chip must be an integrated circuit.

You should be very clear about my popular science.

In the field of low-end chips and other integrated circuits, China's production capacity has risen rapidly, and a large number of localized substitutions has led to a decline in import demand year after year.

In 2022, China's integrated circuit imports will drop by 15.3% year-on-year.

From January to April 2023, China's integrated circuit imports fell by 21.1% year-on-year.

There is a steady rise, but it refers to a slowdown.

In the field of integrated circuits, South Korea is responsible for the manufacture of low-end chips, and its interests have been most severely damaged in China's great leap forward in chip production capacity.

From September 1994 to April 2022, South Korea achieved a record of 28 consecutive years of trade surplus with China, achieving a total of hundreds of billions of dollars in surplus with China, relying on the three magic weapons mainly automobiles, mobile phones, and integrated circuits.

A few years ago, South Korean mobile phones became cold in China. From 2020, Korean cars became cold in China. At the end of 2022, Korean integrated circuits also became cold in China.

In April 2023, South Korea's exports to China fell by 26.5% year-on-year, the 11th consecutive month of decline, and semiconductor chip exports fell by 41%, the ninth consecutive month of decline.

The export of semiconductor chips to China fell by 41%, which is almost equivalent to a cut in half.

Therefore, South Korea's trade with China has directly turned from a huge surplus to a huge deficit, and there is no hope of reversal at all.

The above is the reason why China's trade surplus increased by 56.7% year-on-year from January to April, and the surplus in April soared by 96.5%.

To put it simply, the export of electromechanical products such as automobiles and integrated circuits has not only increased sharply, but imports have also fallen sharply, which directly led to a huge gap in the growth rate of China's imports and exports, which in turn led to a sharp increase in China's surplus.

This result shocked me not only because of the amazing data, whether it is the total data from January to April or the single-month data in April.

More importantly, this data does not match my impression.

In the first quarter of 2023, public opinion on the entire Internet is saying that China’s foreign trade exports have collapsed.

When no one refuted it, everyone acquiesced that this was the truth.

At that time, the articles on the whole network probably had the following titles. I will simply list a few for you to read, including but not limited to:

"China's foreign trade orders in the spring of 2023 will drop by 40% overall"

"Chinese orders evaporate overnight, and containers pile up in ports"

"Yangtze River Delta Foreign Trade Enterprises Stop Hiring"

In addition, there are titles similar to the following:

"Foreign Trade Factories Reduce Production, Mass Unemployment of Workers"

"A large number of foreign capital has transferred production capacity to Southeast Asia"

In short, the news is very horrifying and explosive, demonstrating from various angles that China's foreign trade data has experienced a "cliff-like decline".

After reading this kind of information for several months, I am already prepared to live a difficult life this year. If the foreign trade drops, it will drop. Anyway, the foreign trade data of foreign countries are also falling, as long as I can survive the foreign countries in the end.

Unexpectedly, in the end, the cliff-like decline gave a data showing a sharp increase of 96.5% in surplus.

In the context of weak growth in global export data of only 1%, China's export data also achieved a growth rate of 10%.

Based on the results of this data, where in the first quarter of this year did a bunch of articles say that China's foreign trade has collapsed every day?

This is called foreign trade collapse?

All I know is that the continuously increasing surplus data is too outrageous and unimaginable, and the growth rate of 50% or even 90% at every turn is really too scary.

If the growth rate of the soaring surplus percentage continues to decline like a cliff, some countries will jump off the cliff.

2023年4月，中国对外贸易顺差暴涨96.5%

中国最新的外贸数据出来了，因为结果过于离谱，所以我觉得有必要单独说一下。

2023年4月，中国出口2.02万亿元，增长16.8%，进口1.41万亿元，下降0.8%。

进出口额的增速出现了异常的巨大差距，直接导致4月份中国的贸易顺差飙升到了6184.4亿元，同比去年4月暴涨96.5%。

这是一个离谱到极点的数据，因为去年我们的顺差本来就是高基数增长，百分比增速和绝对值都创历史新高，今年居然在去年顺差超高基数的背景下继续创新高，而且增速达到了96.5%这么离谱的数字。

有人说4月份单独一个月能不代表什么，所以我特地把今年1~4月份的数据汇总，然后和去年1~4月份的数据进行汇总，再做一个对比数字出来。

2022年1~4月，中国出口6.97万亿，增长10.3%，进口5.61万亿，增长5%，贸易顺差1.36万亿，增长39.2%。

如果以美元计价，那就是拿下了2129.3亿美元的顺差。

2022年的前四个月是中国贸易顺差的爆发之年，短短4个月的时间里拿下了2000多亿美元的顺差，同比增长39.2%。

这个离谱的增速直接震惊世界，要知道我们中国是世界第二大经济强国，这样的经济大国顺差增长39.2%是个什么概念！

按这个速度，全年12个月我们能拿下6000多亿美元的顺差。

但实际上2022年的全年12个月，我们拿下的顺差并不是6000多亿美元，而是8776亿美元，因为每个月的顺差额都在扩大，持续扩大。

这种顺差扩大的趋势持续到了今年之后，造出了更大的同比增长。

2023年1~4月，中国出口7.67万亿，增长10.6%，进口5.65万亿元，增长0.02%，实现贸易顺差2.02万亿元，同比2022年1~4月，扩大56.7%。

去年的1~4月顺差同比增长39.2%已经震惊世界了，今年的1~4月在去年高增长高基数的前提下居然再度增长56.7%，尤其是4月份直接蹦出个96.5%的数字。

你说离谱不离谱？

没有顺差会导致巨大的经济问题，但顺差太多也会导致经济问题。

中国去年的时候就已经头疼8000多亿美元的顺差该怎么花了，又不愿意买美债，于是就趁美国加息全球缺美元的档口到处借给别人美元，要求其他缺美元的国家借美元还人民币。

一方面让美国试图用加息制造美元荒割其他国家的美梦破碎，一方面推广人民币。

但今年这顺差暴增的势头如果持续下去，全年的顺差很有可能破万亿美元。

外交部又要挨个去串门拜访了，问一下别个国家还缺不缺美元，要不要从我们这再借点，条件好说。。。

中国的出口增速去年是10%，今年也是10%，这是一个非常惊人的数字，但也还算好，没有顺差动不动就50%增速那么吓人。

之所以会产生那么大的顺差增速完全是因为进口增速没跟上出口。

去年前四个月，进口增速仅为5%。

今年前四个月，进口增速仅为0.02%。

全部远低于10%以上的出口增速。

发生了什么，为什么中国的进口增速那么低？

我又查了一下数据，主要查我国进出口的结构，这次更好玩，因为中国出口大增和进口不增的原因其实是同一个。

中国的出口创汇产品由什么东西组成？

好多人脱口而出，劳动密集型产品啊，服装袜子等纺织品，创汇全靠血汗工厂，中国拿一亿件衬衣换飞机的故事从小就看过。

以前是不是这不重要了，重要的是现在已经不是了。

2023年1~4月，中国的出口产品里机电产品增长10.5%，金额为4.44万亿元，占出口总值的57.9%，为绝对大头。

而劳动密集型产品出口1.31万亿元，只占出口总值的17.1%。

机电产品已经成了中国的出口大头，衬衣袜子什么的早就成了小头。

什么叫机电产品？

看下中国进口产品大降的原因就知道了。

今年1~4月，中国进口机电产品金额大降14.4%，其中进口集成电路下降21.1%，下降金额高达7240亿元，进口汽车下降28.9%，金额约1004亿元。

中国汽车的出口同比暴增120.3%，是出口产品里增速最夸张的东西，铺天盖地的中国汽车堆在港口里等待出口。

在中国汽车出口暴增120.3%的同时，进口大降28.9%，这一进一出直接导致中国在汽车领域的贸易顺差剧烈扩大。

足足40年来，中国一直是汽车贸易的逆差国，常年拿外汇去买外国汽车，进口远远大于出口。

但在2022年中国首次在汽车贸易领域实现了顺差，全年为中国赚回了足足3800亿人民币的顺差，这是中国改革开放40年来在汽车贸易领域首次从亏钱变成赚钱。

而2023年的前四个月，中国的汽车出口再度暴增120%，同时进口再度爆降28.9%。

虽然细分数据还没出来，但不用看了，进出口增速差距那么大，顺差必然暴增，汽车领域将很快成为中国的创汇悍将。

汽车是除住房外的最大消费品，所有的汽车强国全部都是发达国家，无一例外。

机电产品除汽车外，第二个进口大降的就是集成电路。

什么是集成电路？

集成电路不一定是芯片，但芯片一定是集成电路。

我这么科普你应该就很清楚了。

在中低端芯片领域和其他集成电路领域，中国的产能飞速爬升，大量的国产化替代导致进口需求连年下降。

2022年，中国集成电路进口数量同比下降15.3%。

2023年1~4月，中国集成电路进口数量同比下降21.1%。

稳中有升，不过指的是降速。

在集成电路领域里，韩国负责的是中低端芯片制造，在中国的这波芯片产能大跃进里利益受损最为严重。

自1994年9月到2022年4月，韩国实现了对中国连续28年贸易顺差的记录，共实现对华大几千亿美元的顺差，依靠的三大法宝主要是汽车、手机、集成电路。

前些年韩国的手机在中国凉了，2020年开始韩国的汽车在中国凉了，2022年底开始韩国的集成电路也在中国凉了。

2023年4月，韩国对中国的出口同比下降26.5%，为连续11个月下降，半导体芯片出口下降41%，为连续第九个月下降。

半导体芯片对华出口下降41%这几乎就等于腰斩了。

因此，韩国对华贸易从巨额顺差直接变成了巨额逆差，而且根本看不到逆转的希望。

以上，就是中国贸易顺差1~4月同比增长56.7%，而4月顺差更是暴涨96.5%暴增的原因所在。

简单的说就是汽车、集成电路等机电产品领域不仅出口大增，还进口大降，直接导致中国进出口增速出现巨大差距，进而导致中国顺差暴增。

这个结果让我如此震惊，不仅仅是因为数据惊人，不管是1~4月的总数据还是4月的单月数据都很惊人。

更重要的，是这个数据和我的印象对不上去。

2023年的一季度全网的舆论都在说中国的外贸出口崩盘了，数据特别差，下降特别多，说的有鼻子有眼，信者众多，不信者也找不出证据反驳。

无人反驳的情况下，大家都默认了这就是事实。

当时全网的文章大概都是下面这样的标题，我简单罗列几个给大家看，包括但不限于：

《中国2023年春季外贸订单总体下降40%》

《中国订单一夜蒸发，港口集装箱堆积如山》

《长三角外贸企业停止招聘》 

除此之外还有类似于下面这样的标题：

《外贸工厂减产，工人大量失业》

《大量外资已将产能转移至东南亚地区》 

总之，消息都非常惊悚劲爆，从各个角度论证中国的外贸数据出现了“断崖式下降”。

这样的信息看了几个月，我已经做好了今年过苦日子的准备，外贸降就降吧，反正外国的外贸数据也在降，只要最后能熬过外国就行了。

万万没想到，最后断崖式下降给降出个顺差暴增96.5%的数据出来。

而在全球出口数据仅增长1%的弱增长背景下，中国出口数据也拿下了10%的增速。

就这数据结果，今年第一季度到底是哪来的一堆文章天天说中国外贸崩盘了？

这叫外贸崩盘？

我只知道这持续暴增的顺差数据实在过于离谱，简直不可想象，动不动50%甚至90%的增速实在是过于吓人。

如果这暴增的顺差百分比增速再不断崖式下跌，某些国家就要跳崖了。