How long will it take for China to become a developed country? 中国要成为发达国家，还要多久？

 How long will it take for China to become a developed country?

Let me give the answer first. With China's size, once it becomes a developed country, it means that the hegemony of the US dollar has collapsed.

Or to put it another way, if the hegemony of the U.S. dollar does not disintegrate, it is absolutely impossible for us to become a developed country.

China is definitely not going to become a developed country by doing things with a dull head, but in the next 10 years, every step we take will have a profound impact on the global situation, because:

Once China becomes a developed country, the whole world will be rewritten, and the global rules dominated by the United States will undergo earth-shaking changes.

What is a developed country?

Up to now, there are only 38 recognized developed countries in the world:

United States, Canada, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Malta, Iceland, Slovenia, Austria, Ireland, Cyprus, Israel, Singapore, South Korea, Japan, New Zealand, Australia, Poland, Hungary, San Marino, Lithuania, Latvia, Luxembourg, South Korea.

We have to be clear, among the developed countries, there are only two big countries with a population of over 100 million.

One is the United States, with a population of 320 million;

One is Japan, with a population of 126 million.

In fact, Japan is already considered a big country in the eyes of most countries in the world.

Because there are only 13 countries in the world with a population of more than 100 million, and there are only 10 countries that can exceed the population size of Japan!

The other 36 developed countries are all small and medium-sized countries, and most of them are small countries, such as those with a population of one million:

5.3 million in Finland, 4.72 million in Norway, 5.82 million in Denmark, 2.79 million in Lithuania...

There are also many pocket-sized countries with a population of 100,000:

For example, Luxembourg has a population of 600,000, and a Shenzhen city can hold 20 to 30 Luxembourg's national population;

For example, Iceland has a population of 340,000, and one city of Shanghai can hold 80 national-level populations of Iceland;

There are smaller ones like:

San Marino has a population of 30,000, and China State Grid has 900,000 employees, which is equivalent to 30 San Marinos;

PetroChina's 1.5 million employees...

Why is the Western world afraid of China?

Because China wants to become a developed country, and now the 35 developed countries in the world have a combined population of only 860 million.

And China has a population of 1.4 billion!

Unlike most countries, whether developed or poor, they are insignificant to the planet, but China is different.

When China becomes a developed country, will other countries be the same?

The standard for developed countries is that the per capita economic aggregate reaches about US$30,000. China has reached the standard, that is, the economic aggregate reaches US$42 trillion. The global economic aggregate in 2020 will be US$99.67 trillion, and China will account for 42% of the global total. %, almost half of it!

Of course, you will say that China’s GDP is growing, and global GDP is also growing. However, it is obvious that the growth of the global economic aggregate is very slow, because there are only 8.7 billion people in the world, and the market is not infinite.

If you want to increase the total economic volume, you must have industries to support it. The market for any industry is limited, and countries around the world tend to ebb and flow. For example, the rise of China’s shipbuilding industry will inevitably lead to a decline in South Korea’s shipbuilding industry, because The demand for global ships cannot grow infinitely, but is relatively stable.

For example, with the rise of China's automobile industry, Japan's automobile exports will inevitably shrink, because the global demand for automobiles is not unlimited.

In fact, in the past 10 years, the GDP growth rate of most countries, especially Western countries, has been very slow or stagnant. In 2020, even European and American countries will experience collective regression.

In 2012, the total global GDP was 75 trillion U.S. dollars, and in 2022 it will be nearly 100 trillion U.S. dollars, an increase of 25 trillion U.S. dollars.

Among them, the United States has increased from 16 trillion US dollars to 25 trillion US dollars, an increase of 9 trillion, with a growth rate of 56%;

China has increased from 8.5 trillion to 18.5 trillion US dollars, an increase of 10 trillion US dollars, a growth rate of 117%.

This means that in the past ten years, the combined GDP of China and the United States has increased by US$19 trillion, contributing 76% of the global growth. The combined GDP of more than 200 countries has only increased by US$6 trillion in 10 years. .

In other words, excluding China and the United States, the ten-year growth rate of the global economy is only 9.6%, with an average annual growth rate of 0.96%.

The rapid development of China and the United States is because in the past 10 years, they have jointly taken away the dividends of mobile Internet and artificial intelligence. Europe, Japan and South Korea have made almost no achievements in these new industries, not even a well-known Internet company.

At the same time, Chinese manufacturing has swept the world, and the US financial hegemony has sucked blood from the world.

But slowly, the United States found that it was becoming more and more difficult to cut leeks, because once the industry came to China, it would not be so easy to be sanctioned or robbed by the United States.

Moreover, if China's total GDP accounts for 30% or 40% of the world's total, will the US dollar still be an international currency?

At that time, China, as the absolute largest economy in the world, will we still use the US dollar to calculate the GDP of countries around the world?

At this time, the US's containment of China will be meaningless, because without the Chinese market, all the capital in Europe and the United States will be inherently insufficient, and no one dares to bear the loss of such an important market.

China only needs to achieve an average annual economic growth rate of around 5% to reach an economic aggregate of US$30 trillion in 2032 and US$40 trillion in 2038.

Therefore, in order to maintain its hegemony, the United States must contain China.

Obama once said: If the Chinese can live our lives, we can only eat grass.

Is Obama right?

The United States accounts for about 5% of the world's population, consumes 1/3 of the world's paper, 1/4 of oil, 23% of coal, 27% of aluminum and 19% of copper. It is the country that produces the most domestic waste in the world. However, most of the United States is a virtual economy, which has no contribution to the world. The excessive issuance of currency every year is a deficit, and the US dollar is used to buy the wealth of the world.

If China becomes a developed country, the extravagant and wasteful life of the United States will naturally be difficult to survive.

Because resources do not grow infinitely, the market is not infinite.

The United States does not want China to become a developed country. To some extent, it is understandable, because the so-called developed and underdeveloped are all compared. A developed country must be at the top of the global pyramid.

Now the total population of developed countries is 860 million, which is 10% of the world's population. Once China becomes a developed country, we alone will account for 17% of the world's population. The population of developed countries has quadrupled. Is this possible?

So, can the original 860 million people still live a superior life?

This is like a class. You may say that the top 10% are top students, but you cannot say that the top 30% are top students.

But what I want to say is that the United States is right to feel the huge pressure from China. The problem is that since it feels the pressure, it should develop its own industry and technology so that China cannot surpass it.

It's a pity that the United States doesn't think so. American values are worse, because the United States can't compare with China in terms of intelligence or hard work, so the United States just doesn't want to learn well, so I will let you all fail.

The American test is 60 points. He saw that China scored 59 points in the test. He was very anxious. What he thought was not how to improve himself to 80 points, but how to contain and contain China so that China could not exceed 60 points.

Therefore, it is impossible for China to become a developed country without breaking the US blockade and containment, as long as the dollar hegemony remains.

Another problem is that if China wants to create an economic aggregate of nearly 40 trillion yuan, that is, nearly 276 trillion yuan, it must think clearly about what industries will support it?

In many small countries, only one or two industries are enough.

The smaller the country, the easier it is to become a developed country.

These small countries often only need one or two industries, or even one or two companies, to become a developed country. They don't even need to be a technological power, as an agricultural country or resource country is enough.

For example, in Luxembourg, the largest enterprise is ArcelorMittal Steel Group, with annual sales of 79 billion U.S. dollars and a population of 600,000 in Luxembourg. With this steel company alone, Luxembourg can become a developed country.

Another example is Iceland. Tourism generates 4.2 billion US dollars a year, and fishery generates 2.1 billion US dollars a year. There are a total of 370,000 people in Iceland. With these two industries, Iceland’s per capita GDP can reach 17,000 US dollars. Do anything else Catering services or something can become a developed country.

For example, Finland has the highest forest coverage rate in the world, with a per capita of 4.2 hectares. Only relying on the forest industry, the output value created in 2022 will be 26 billion US dollars. Do you think 26 billion US dollars is not much?

Finland has a total population of 5.3 million, and the forest industry can contribute nearly US$5,000 to Finland's per capita GDP.

For example, in Australia, in 2022, iron ore exports will reach 167 billion US dollars. Australia has a total population of 25 million, which is equivalent to only one iron ore export. Even if Australia lays down all other industries, it can contribute to everyone. $6600.

But for China, which has a population of 1.4 billion, it is obviously impossible. It needs the support of countless industries to become a developed country.

New energy, home appliances, shipbuilding, construction, communications, automobiles... these are not enough.

Chips, large aircraft, engines, industrial aircraft...these require comprehensive breakthroughs.

Or to put it simply, we need at least:

30 technology companies at the level of Apple or Airbus, otherwise we will not get high profits;

30 luxury goods companies at the level of Hermes or Chanel, otherwise we can only do OEM;

At the same time, we must grasp the global pricing power, not what we buy is expensive and what we sell is cheap;

At least the above three conditions must be met before we can become a developed country.

So, how to achieve these conditions?

In fact, five years is enough for normal development, but it is impossible for the United States to allow us to develop normally.

As a representative of Chinese technology, Huawei's sales in 2020 will be 891.4 billion yuan. According to this trend, it will only take 6 years to surpass Apple. However, the United States immediately blocked and suppressed Huawei, which put Huawei under tremendous pressure.

Apple can rely on the global supply chain, while Huawei can only rely on the Chinese supply chain.

As for luxury goods companies, let alone, if this does not make a breakthrough, Meixi Group can earn 100 yuan by posting a Nike logo, and we can make a pair of shoes and earn 3 yuan......

At present, there is not a single luxury company in China. With a share of the global luxury goods market of nearly 2 trillion US dollars, plus a share of the 16 trillion cultural industry market such as the global entertainment, culture, and film industries, we can earn almost no or less money. pitiful...

Because the US and Western groups have long demonized and stigmatized China, China will have no way to improve its brand power unless it breaks through this dilemma.

Then let’s talk about the right to speak internationally. We don’t have the right to set the price of bulk commodities, that is, what we buy is expensive.

The iron ore in Australia is 1042 yuan/ton at the peak, and the cost is only 220 yuan/ton. If you dig a ton of iron ore, Australia will earn 800 yuan;

We get Australian iron ore to make steel, one ton of iron ore can smelt 0.4 tons of steel, the cost is 1152 yuan, the sales price is 1192 yuan, and we earn 40 yuan;

That is to say, Australia went to the mine to dig and dig and earned 800 yuan. We worked hard to build a steel factory and a smelting center. After a long process of refining the steel, we earned 40 yuan...

So, why are the American and Western groups, that is, the developed countries, able to make money so easily and not tired?

Because they sell chips and sell patents with a gross profit of 47%, we sell mobile phones with a gross profit of 10%, and they earn nearly five times that of us;

They sell LOGO, we sell labor, and they earn 30 times as much as we do;

They have the right to speak and set prices. In the same industry chain, the sales profit is 20 times that of ours;

That is to say, the same labor, or even much less labor, they are 4 to 30 times our income.

Under such circumstances, it is impossible for China to become a developed country.

To sum up, it is impossible for China to become a developed country without defeating the hegemony of the United States, breaking the encirclement and blockade of China by the United States, establishing China's voice and influence, and changing the financial order and international pricing power of the United States and the West. nation!

Therefore, many people say, why do you always pay attention to the global situation and not China? We have not yet become a developed country, and people's lives are not yet rich.

I laughed when I saw this. Which developed country in the world is a closed country and relies on internal circulation to become a developed country?

300 years ago, the Anza Group relied on being a pirate, a slave trader, burning, killing and looting around the world, and relying on the global colonial system to make itself a developed country.

Eighty years ago, the United States relied on the financial system established around the world to establish the hegemony of the U.S. dollar. Only then was it able to harvest leeks and wool indefinitely, and it was able to issue U.S. dollars indiscriminately to buy global wealth under the premise of fiscal deficits and deficits every year. , enjoy a luxurious life.

However, China entered the global division of labor system 20 years ago, rose peacefully, and Chinese manufacturing swept the world, which brought about earth-shaking changes in our lives.

In the future, we want to go one step further. If the entire international order does not change and the hegemony of the US dollar does not collapse, we will never be able to become a developed country.

中国要成为发达国家，还要多久？

我先说答案，以中国的体量，一旦成为发达国家，就意味着美元霸权已经瓦解了。

或者换种说法，美元霸权不瓦解，我们绝没有可能成为发达国家。

中国，绝对不是闷着头做事情就能成为发达国家，而是未来10年，我们每走一步，都将深刻的影响全球局势，因为：

中国一旦成为发达国家，整个世界都将改写，以美国为主导的全球规则将发生翻天覆地的变化。

什么是发达国家？

到现在，全球一共只有38个公认的发达国家：

美国、加拿大、英国、法国、德国、荷兰、比利时、卢森堡、瑞士、意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙、希腊、丹麦、瑞典、芬兰、挪威、捷克、斯洛伐克、马耳他、冰岛、斯洛文尼亚、奥地利、爱尔兰、塞浦路斯、以色列、新加坡、韩国、日本、新西兰、澳大利亚、波兰、匈牙利、圣马力诺、立陶宛、拉脱维亚、卢森堡、韩国。

我们要想清楚，在发达国家中，人口过亿的大国只有两个。

一个是美国，3.2亿人口；

一个是日本，1.26亿人口。

事实上，日本，在全球多数国家的视野中，已经算是大国了。

因为全球只有13个国家人口超过了1亿，能超过日本人口规模的国家，只有10个！

其它的36个发达国家中都是中小型国家，而多数都是小型国家，比如百万级人口的：

芬兰530万、挪威472万、丹麦582万、立陶宛279万.....

还有很多的是袖珍型国家，人口十万级别的：

如卢森堡人口60万，一个深圳市可以顶20到30个卢森堡的国家级人口；

如冰岛人口34万，一个上海市可以顶80个冰岛国家级人口；

还有更小的，如：

圣马力诺3万人口，中国国家电网90万员工，相当于30个圣马力诺；

中石油150万员工......

为什么西方世界对中国心生恐惧？

因为中国想成为发达国家，而现在全球35个发达国家，加起来人口只有8.6亿。

而中国有14亿人口！

多数国家是无论是发达国家还是贫困国家，对地球无足轻重，但中国不同。

当中国成为发达国家，其它国家还会是原来的样子吗？

发达国家的标准是人均经济总量达到3万美元左右，中国达成标准，即达到42万亿美元经济总量，全球2020年的经济总量为99.67万亿美元，中国将占全球总量的42%，几乎占到了一半！

当然，你会说，中国GDP在增长，全球GDP也在增长，但是，很明显，全球经济总量的增长是非常缓慢的，因为全球总共只有87亿人，市场并不是无限大的。

想让经济总量增长，就必须要有产业进行支撑，任何产业的市场都是有限的，全球各国往往会此消彼长，比如中国的造船产业崛起，韩国的造船业就必定要衰退，因为全球船舶的需求量不可能是无限增长的，而是相对稳定的。

比如中国汽车产业崛起，日本的汽车出口必然萎缩，因为全球汽车需求量也不是无限的。

事实上，在过去的10年，多数国家尤其西方国家的GDP增长速度非常缓慢或停滞不前，2020年甚至欧美国家出现集体倒退。

2012年全球GDP总量75万亿美元，2022年为近100万亿美元，增长25万亿美元。

其中，美国从16万亿美元到了25万亿，增加9万亿，增长率56%；

中国从8.5万亿到了18.5万亿美元，增加10万亿美元，增长率117%。

这意味着，过去十年中美两国加起来，增长了19万亿美元的GDP，贡献了全球增长量的76%，其他200多个国家的GDP加在一起10年间仅增6万亿美元。

也就是说去掉中国和美国，全球经济十年增长率只有9.6%，平均每年0.96%。

中美两国高速发展，是因为在过去的10年，共同拿走了移动互联网和人工智能的红利，欧日韩在这些新产业上几乎毫无建树，连一家知名互联网公司都没有。

同时，中国制造横扫全球，美国金融霸权全球吸血。

但是慢慢的，美国发现自己割韭菜越来越割不动了，因为产业一旦到了中国，就不可能那么轻易的被美国制裁或者抢劫。

而且，中国如果GDP总量占到全球的30%或40%，美元还会是国际货币吗？

到时候，中国作为全球绝对的第一经济体，我们还会用美元来计算全球各国家的GDP吗？

这个时候美国对中国的遏制将没有任何意义，因为失去中国市场，欧美的所有资本将先天不足，谁都不敢承担丢失如此重要市场的损失。

中国只需要实现5%左右的平均年经济增长率，就能在2032年达到30万亿美元经济总量，2038年达到40万亿美元的经济总量。

所以，美国为了保住自己的霸权地位，必须要遏制中国。

奥巴马曾经说过：如果中国人都能过上我们的生活，我们只能去吃草。

奥巴马说的对不对？

美国占据全球大约5%的人口，消耗着着全球1/3的纸张，1/4的石油，23%的煤炭，以及27%的铝和19%的铜，是全球产生生活垃圾最多的国家，但是美国大部分都是虚拟经济，对全球没有贡献，年年滥发货币都是逆差，用美元在买全世界的财富。

中国如果成为发达国家，美国这样奢侈浪费的日子自然是过不下去了。

因为资源并不是无限增长的，市场并不是无限大的。

美国不想让中国成为发达国家，某种程度上是可以理解的，因为所谓发达和不发达，都是对比出来的，发达国家，必定是在全球的金字塔顶端。

现在发达国家的总人口，是8.6亿，也就是全球的10%的人口，一旦中国成为发达国家，仅仅我们一个国家，就是全球17%，发达国家的人口翻了四番，这可能吗？

那么，原来的8.6亿人，还能过上优越的生活吗？

这就好像一个班，你可能说前10%是尖子生，你不可能说前30%都是尖子生，那要么乱套了，要么尖子生贬值了。

但是我要说的是，美国感受到了来自中国的巨大压力，这是对的，问题就在于，既然感受到了压力，那就好好发展自己的工业与科技，让中国无法超越。

可惜美国不是这么想的，美国的价值观是比烂，因为无论比聪明才智还是比努力奋斗，美国都没办法和中国比，所以美国就是我不想学好，我就让你们都好不了。

美国考试是60分，他看到中国考了59分，他很着急，他想的不是怎么把自己提高的80分，而想的是怎么围堵和遏制中国，让中国无法超过60分。

所以，不打破美国的封锁与围堵，只要美元霸权还在，中国是不可能成为发达国家的。

另一个问题是，中国要创造近40万亿的经济总量，也就是近276万亿人民币，就要想清楚，靠什么产业来支撑？

很多小国家，只需要一两个产业就足够了。

越小的国家，越容易成为发达国家。

这些小国家，往往只需要一两个产业，甚至一到两个企业，就足够成为发达国家了，甚至他们不需要成为科技强国，作为农业国或资源国就够了。

比如卢森堡，第一大企业是阿塞洛尔米塔尔钢铁集团，年销售额为790亿美元，整个卢森堡就60万人口，光靠这个钢铁公司，卢森堡就能成为发达国家。

再比如冰岛，旅游一年创造42亿美元，渔业一年创造21亿美元，冰岛总共37万人，有这两个产业，冰岛人均GDP就能达到1.7万美元的人均GDP，随便搞点别的餐饮服务什么的，就能成为发达国家。

比如芬兰，森林覆盖率全球第一，人均达到了恐怖的4.2公顷，仅仅依靠森林工业，2022年创造的产值为260亿美元，你是不是觉得260亿美元不多？

芬兰总人口530万，森林产业就能给芬兰贡献近5000美元的人均GDP。

比如澳大利亚，2022年，铁矿石出口就达到了1670亿美元，澳大利亚总共2500万人口，相当于光一个铁矿石出口，澳大利亚哪怕躺平其它所有产业都不干了，就能给每个人贡献6600美元。

但是对于14亿人口的中国来说，显然是不行的，需要无数产业的支撑，才有可能成为发达国家。

新能源、家电、造船、建筑、通讯、汽车......这些还不够。

芯片、大飞机、发动机、工业母机......这些需要全面突破。

或者我简单点说，我们至少需要：

30个苹果或者空中客车这样级别的科技公司，否则我们就拿不到高利润；

30个爱马仕或者香莱儿这样级别的奢侈品公司，否则我们就只能做代工；

同时，我们要掌握全球的定价权，而不是我们买什么什么贵，卖什么什么便宜；

至少要达到以上3个条件，我们才有可能成为发达国家。

那么，怎么达成这些条件呢？

事实上，正常发展，也就是5年时间也就够了，但是美国就不可能让我们正常发展。

华为作为中国科技的代表，2020年销售额8914亿人民币，根据这个趋势只需要6年时间就能超过苹果，但美国随即对华为进行围堵和打压，让华为面临巨大的压力。

苹果可以依托全球供应链，而华为只能依托中国的供应链。

而奢侈品企业呢，就更不用说了，这个不突破，美西方集团贴一个耐克的标，就能赚100块，我们做一双鞋子，赚3块钱.......

现在中国一家奢侈品企业都没有，全球近2万亿美元奢侈品市场的份额，加上全球娱乐、文化、电影产业等16万亿文化产业市场的份额，我们能赚到的钱几乎没有或少得可怜......

因为美西方集团长期妖魔化和污名化中国，中国不突破这个困境，就没有办法提升自己的品牌力。

接着说国际话语权，大宗商品的价格我们没有定价权，就是我们买什么什么贵。

澳大利亚的铁矿石，最高峰时1042元/吨，成本只需要220元/吨，挖一吨铁矿石，澳大利亚赚800元；

我们拿到澳大利亚铁矿石炼钢，一吨铁矿石能炼0.4吨钢，成本是1152元，销售价格为1192元，我们赚40元；

也就是说澳大利亚到矿上随便刨刨，赚800块，我们费老鼻子劲，修建钢铁厂，冶炼中心，经过漫长的程序把钢铁练出来，赚40块......

所以，为什么美西方集团，也就是发达国家可以那么轻松的赚钱，还不累呢？

因为他们卖芯片卖专利是47%的毛利，我们卖手机毛利是10%，他们挣的是我们的近5倍；

他们卖LOGO，我们卖劳动力，他们挣的是我们的30倍；

他们掌握话语权和定价权，在同一产业链上，销售利润是我们的20倍；

也就是说同样的劳动，甚至付出少得多的劳动，他们是我们4到30倍的收益。

那么在这样的情况下，中国就不可能成为发达国家。

综上所述，不击溃美国的霸权，破除美国对中国的围堵与封锁、不建立中国的话语权与影响力、不改变美西方集团的金融秩序与国际定价权，中国就没有可能成为发达国家！

所以，很多人说，你怎么老关注全球局势，不关注中国呢，我们还没成为发达国家，人民生活还不富裕呢。

看到这话我都笑了，全球哪一个发达国家，是闭关锁国，靠内循环做成发达国家的？

300年前，盎撒集团依靠做海盗、做奴隶贩子、全球烧杀抢掠，依靠全球的殖民体系，才让自己成为了发达国家，

80年前，美国依靠在全球建立的金融体系，树立了美元的霸权地位，才能够无限割韭菜薅羊毛，才能够在每年财政入不敷出、年年亏空的前提下，依然滥发美元来购买全球财富，享受奢靡的生活。

而中国在20年前，进入全球分工体系，和平崛起，中国制造横扫全球，才让我们的生活发生了翻天覆地的变化。

在未来，还想更进一步，整个国际秩序不改变，美元霸权不破灭，我们永远也别想成为发达国家。