Grasp the right to speak and realize the Jinshan dream掌握话语权，实现金山梦

1. With the dream of Jinshan in mind, the pain of leaving home

Maybe you are like me, when you saw the word "Jinshan" for the first time, you were wondering, why use such a word?

Gold Mountain (Gold Mountain, often rendered in English as Gum Shan or Gumshan), in the history of Chinese immigration, has generally referred to the western part of North America where gold mines were discovered, including the current state of California in the United States and British Columbia in Canada, and generally refers to the United States. San Francisco (also known as San Francisco, San Francisco). Later, gold mines were also discovered in Melbourne, Australia, and Melbourne became a new gold mine, while San Francisco, California, USA became San Francisco.

In 1848, in the Sierra Nevada of the United States, a carpenter discovered gold in the water flow of a waterwheel in the Sacramento Valley, triggering a world gold rush (Gold Rush). When the news spread to China, thousands of people from Taishan, Guangdong began to search for gold mines in the western United States, hoping to get rich one day. "If you want to be rich, go to Jinshan Road" was a popular poem at that time. The destination of the gold rush is called "Golden Mountain". During the gold rush, a large number of Chinese immigrated to the United States and Canada. Jinshan was a buzzword used by immigration companies and employers to recruit Chinese workers and attract new immigrants. It was a symbol of people’s longing for a better life. Jinshan Became synonymous with Chinese immigrants.

Jinshan was also the initial reason for a large number of Chinese immigrants before the founding of Canada in 1867. It attracted a large number of Chinese with dreams and longing for a better life to flow into the British Columbia Province of Canada, which was also known as Northwest America at that time.

Image: Earliest immigration paper

However, the gold diggers who came here full of dreams and hopes found that the Chinese were not welcome, and European immigrants were hostile to the Chinese (Despite their importance to the Canadian economy, including the historic construction of the CPR, many European Canadians were hostile to the Chinese) Chinese immigration). Even though they have made great economic contributions to Canada, especially the construction of the unprecedented cross-east railway (Canadian Pacific Railway (CPR)), which made the establishment of the Canadian federal government possible, the Chinese are still discriminated against and have no equal opportunities. Word. The Chinese are the only ethnic group in Canadian history who have been restricted or even rejected by the "poll tax" immigration. Moreover, the Chinese have no real civil rights in politics, no right to vote, and no right to participate in and participate in politics.

Dream of Jinshan: the long journey of immigration and the long journey of participating in politics

- It was so hard for Chinese Canadians to immigrate and participate in politics in the early days! ! ! 00:00

2. The orphan of Asia, though a sojourner,

History has forgotten them, but they have made history!

In 1788, British fur trader John Meares recruited 50 Chinese sailors and craftsmen from Guangzhou and Macau and brought them to Nootka Sound in the Colony of Vancouver Island , they set sail from Guangzhou on January 22 and arrived at their destination in May. The Chinese laborers helped Meres build a trading post there, including a dock, a fort and a sailing ship called "the North-West America". Meres used this trading post to buy (exchange) sea lion skins, and then shipped them to Guangzhou for sale.

In the second year, 1789, John Meles recruited another 70 Chinese laborers from Guangdong to follow two ships to Vancouver Island, but he himself did not follow the merchant ships, but stayed in Guangzhou. At the same time, the Spaniards monopolized the trade on the northwest coast of North America and continued to expand their territory. They heard that the Russians were going to build a trading post in Nootka Bay in Alaska, so they rushed there. When they arrived at Nootka Bay, they found three Two of them were American ships, spending the winter there, and the other was John Mayrez's merchant ship, which had just arrived in Nootka Bay. The Spaniards arrested and imprisoned Captain William Douglas and the Chinese on board. This was the famous Nootka Crisis that almost ignited the war between Britain and Spain at that time. Capitulating to Britain's then-great naval power, the Spaniards soon released the captain, telling him to get out of Nootka Bay and never to see him again. Part of the Chinese crew returned to China with Captain Douglas. Other Chinese laborers were taken to nearby coal mines (no gold mine was discovered at that time) to work as miners. Some Chinese laborers married local aborigines, and some were later taken to Mexico. These 120 people were the first group of Chinese who first drifted to Canada. For more than half a century thereafter, until the Gold Rush in the 1850s, no Chinese were ever heard of in western North America.

These 120 Chinese did not leave any other records in Canadian history. They can be regarded as passing by, but they gently opened the first page of the history of Chinese immigrants in Canada.

3. Discrimination and humiliation make it difficult to realize the Jinshan dream

"Poll Tax" Chinese Exclusion Act

A large number of Chinese immigrants to Vancouver Island began in May 1858. During the Fraser Canyon Gold Rush (Fraser Canyon Gold Rush), the Hongmen Brotherhood brought a large number of Chinese from California to Vancouver’s Fraser River Valley (Fraser River Valley) to seek gold . At this time, Vancouver Island was called the New World (Mainland), the new "Gold Mountain". News of the gold rush spread as far as China and attracted a large number of Chinese from China to Vancouver to seek gold. By 1860, in just two years, an estimated 7,000 Chinese had arrived on Vancouver Island.

The influx of a large number of Chinese has aroused the anxiety of European immigrants. They discriminate against and exclude Chinese on the grounds that Chinese are hateful and dangerous, and oppose allowing Chinese to enjoy full citizenship (“unfit for full citizenship ... obnoxious to a free community and dangerous to the state."). In order to allow the Chinese to help build the railway, the Canadian government adopted a tolerant attitude towards the Chinese.

However, once the railway was completed, the Canadian government began to prevent Chinese immigration to Canada (As soon as the construction of the Canadian Pacific Railway was completed in 1885, Canada took steps to stop Chinese immigration.). In 1885, the Canadian government passed the "Chinese Immigration Act" (The Chinese Immigration Act, 1885), also known as the "Chinese Exclusion Act" in history. According to this bill, workers who want to enter Canada and their families must pay a "head tax" of 50 Canadian dollars (Under the Chinese Immigration Act (1885), the Canadian government forced every Chinese worker, and family member, wanting to enter Canada to pay a $50 head tax.). At that time, the 50 Canadian dollars was equivalent to 1,100 Canadian dollars in 2008 (In 2008, this amount would buy goods worth $1,100). It is not easy to pay the 50 Canadian dollars. You must know that Chinese workers willing to accept only $1 a day while white, black and native workers were paid three times that amount. Without eating or drinking, I have to work for almost two months to earn this money. The Chinese are the only race that has to pay this expensive poll tax (No immigrants from any other country ever had to pay such a tax to enter Canada.).

After years of deep cultivation and deployment in the media field, some of China's big capitals have reached the extent of their discourse power and control? The truth insults our imagination yet again.

Mr. Jiang's public opinion of withdrawing popular searches, deleting posts and limiting the flow, these operations were carried out on the entire network, and it only took a short time to complete.

An Ali executive can enjoy this kind of protection of public opinion. Behind the protection of public opinion is the frightening control of public opinion by capital.

This scene seems to be nothing more than an ordinary emotional entanglement. It is impossible for the government to intervene. Only capital has such power.

This is not the first time that netizens have felt the power of a certain capital to control public opinion. As early as 2017, because of the Zhao Wei incident, netizens have fully experienced it. Not only can it not be popular, but even the official Weibo content of the Central Committee of the Communist Youth League has been deleted.

Big capital's control over the right to speak, this time through this most gossip plot, the powerful power of capital is presented to the melon-eaters.

Ali is the capital that is most keen on acquiring and controlling the media in China, and few others can compare the emphasis on the right to speak.

There is a paragraph in the article "Ali's Media Empire" as follows:

From e-commerce to finance, film, video, medical care, etc., we used to think that Alibaba was just a traditional e-commerce platform, but now Ali occupies half of China's Internet like an aircraft carrier.

Ali’s acquisition of the media received a lot of attention before 2016, and then this topic became relatively quiet. I don’t know if someone deliberately controlled this topic and turned to a low-key one.

At that time, someone also compiled and produced a list of media invested and acquired by Ali by the end of 2015:

From this list, Ali's media layout is comprehensive, including social media, financial media, online video, film and television entertainment, and overseas media. At that time, there was an article "After the acquisition of the South China Morning Post, the Alibaba Media Empire is gradually taking shape" summed it up like this:

Browse the media matrix that Ali has built up in recent years. There are not only the film and television media composed of controlling Youku Tudou and Ali Pictures, but also investing in Huayi Brothers, Guangguang Media and Wasu Media, as well as investing in Sina Weibo and investing in Tango and Huashu Media. Social media composed of snapchat1 and Momo; there are not only mobile new media created by Wujie, Cover, and Toutiao, but also public relations and advertising media composed of 36 Krypton, Tiger Sniff, and Titanium Media, as well as Ali Music media. Coupled with the traditional media lineup composed of "South China Morning Post", Alibaba's media empire has expanded to 25 media.

More than four years have passed, and Ali's current layout and control in the media will only become stronger.

No matter how hard you work, no matter how much you gain, you can really get miraculous results at critical moments.

The media's interest in capital investment is of course the media's right to speak.

The media has been called the fourth power, but I think that is understated.

In modern society, mastering the right to speak means mastering the air. Air protection without the right to speak, even if it is as strong as Liu Qiangdong, and negative information appears, it will be disgraced every time, and there is no power to fight back.

The right to speak can not only be used to gain an advantage in market competition. In capitalist countries, capital can intervene in politics through the right to speak. To a certain extent, the right to speak of capital can not only create more profits for their own enterprises, but also give rise to political power from the right to speak.

The Western system often uses the government not to control the media as a superior feature. In fact, this is the key to capital controlling the country and realizing the supremacy of money and power. After designing elections as a game of competing for funds, legalizing political donations, and handing over the media to the control of capital, the control of politics by capital is only a technical issue.

The purpose of American capital controlling the right to speak is not just to bring commercial benefits, but to control the entire country. By controlling politicians, the entire state apparatus will serve capital.

Capital is a global phenomenon. The dreams of capital all over the world are actually the same.

The American dream is the dream shared by capitals all over the world, and the American system is the system that capitals all over the world dream of.

American capital has achieved a high degree of monopoly on the right to speak in dialogue. The data I saw in an article is: In 1983, 90% of the media in the United States were controlled by 50 companies. In 2011, 90% of the media in the United States was controlled by 6 companies.

If any politician in the United States wants to reach the pinnacle of power, he must obtain the support of at least some of these companies.

To challenge the interests of capital, any company will not provide media support, which means that it does not even have the opportunity to participate in political games. Those who can participate in the election game are all their own people, or those who feel at ease, are capitalists or "capitalist dogs" as Trump said.

In modern society, few people use simple and rude methods to solve problems. Most problems are solved in a superficial way without gunpowder.

Any solution to the disappearance cannot be separated from the support or cover of the media.

The right to speak is in the hands of capital, and its role is growing.

When capital controls the media, it is natural to talk about the politics of capital.

Which country's system is the most capital-friendly and most conducive to capital's control of more resources is highly praised by capital media all over the world. The American system not only allows capital to control economic and social resources, but also allows capital to control political resources, allowing money to be at the top of the pyramid of power. This is a system that big capitals all over the world dream of.

On the contrary, the system that restricts capital to control more resources is the object of denial by the capital media.

Some big capitals are willing to spend real money to invest in the media and build their own media empire. Of course, it is to influence public opinion, and even control public opinion, to grasp the right to speak, and to use it for themselves.

Whoever controls the right to speak must serve whomever.

Many strange phenomena in the Chinese public opinion field, things that are not easy to explain with common sense, once they go deep into the level of capital, everything becomes clear.

Why has there always been a powerful force in the Chinese public opinion field, denying the Chinese system without a bottom line, and at the same time providing unlimited defense for the American system?

Why is it that rumors against the Chinese system spread so quickly and are extremely weak in dispelling rumors, while rumors against the United States are just the opposite, with weak dissemination capabilities and strong rumor refutation capabilities?

Why do people who admire the American system have such a great voice in China, while those who oppose and question them have very little power to speak?

Why is it that negative news from the government can instantly become a hotspot, but negative news about capital is not easy to become a hotspot?

Why is negative information about state-owned enterprises often raised as a systemic problem of public ownership, while negative information about private companies is not pursued by the mainstream media as a systemic problem of private ownership?

Why do large and small media flock to negative information about public foundations, while large and small media often turn a blind eye to negative information about private foundations?

It all stems from the fact that some capital has controlled the right to speak through conscious layout. (In order to confuse Chinese literati, remember, they often rewrite articles and add their own elements to achieve the purpose of infiltration, so be very vigilant)

Some abnormal public opinion phenomena always make people feel that there is an invisible hand behind them, and this hand is these capitals.

In my previous article, I analyzed why the market-oriented media should consciously and collectively pursue and use double standards on a large scale, such as state-owned enterprises and private enterprises, public hospitals and private hospitals, public foundations and private foundations, and so on. The principle of political correctness pursued by the market-oriented media behind this kind of double standard: the interests of capital are paramount, and the voice of capital serves the interests of capital and speaks for the image of capital. This is an inevitable and natural thing. Otherwise, what is the capital doing so hard to establish and acquire media?

It is precisely because the market-oriented media strictly abides by the political consciousness of capital, when the market-oriented media has gained enough discourse power, the truth of the matter becomes less important, because the truth needed by capital can be produced through the discourse power of the media Yes, the truth can be deconstructed and then recombined to form the truth needed by capital. This kind of truth can also be implanted into the public brain through the media's discourse power, and right and wrong can also be shaped by the media.

Because the media has adopted double standards when dealing with the Red Cross and private foundations, the public impression is that the results are different

In the writing of the media dominated by private capital, all elements of public ownership, public enterprises, public hospitals, and public foundations all have original sin.

The market-oriented media is most opposed to talking about the original sin of capital, but they are most keen on talking about the "original sin" of public ownership.

All double standards, in the final analysis, are used between public ownership and private ownership.

There is no truth under the double standard, at least there is no complete truth, and partial truth does not mean it is the truth, and it may be the opposite of the truth.

With enough right to speak, capital gains the ability to produce "truth". The more the capital media likes the self-proclaimed freedom of speech, the more it likes to produce "truth".

There are still many people who look at the problem from the outside, thinking that private foundations are weak, and that government-run foundations are strong. This kind of misunderstanding also occurs between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises.

The importance of the right to speak is not only reflected in the economic and social fields, but also in the political field.

In the face of an out-of-control pen, the Soviet Union's millions of heavily armed troops are powerless to defend the regime.

With such a precedent as the former Soviet Union, is it still necessary to demonstrate the importance of the right to speak?

Why is the US regime stable? It is not because the American regime is not corrupt. The United States is the most successful country in legalizing corruption. Even political donations, such as power and money transactions, have been legalized to a considerable extent. The United States is the most aware of the importance of pens. The country with the strongest control. To what extent can Americans brainwash their citizens? Look at the picture:

In the mainstream media in the United States, how many media professionals dare to come out and question the American system? In minutes, you will never find a place in the mainstream media. Even without the FBI taking action, the bosses and management of the mainstream media in the United States will immediately clean up the team when they find the signs, and replace them immediately without changing their minds.

The core essence of media marketization is to allow capital to control the media. The marketization of the media can ensure that the mainstream media does not oppose the American system, because only relying on the political consciousness of the capitalists who control the media can ensure the purification of the ranks of media professionals. Socialist countries cannot adopt media marketization, because the market-oriented media dominated by capital obviously yearns for the American system, no matter which country is like this, with few exceptions.

I hope that China will not have the fact that big capital highly monopolizes the right to speak in the media like the United States.

This bill has seriously affected Chinese immigrants. Expensive landing fees mean that it is difficult for Chinese to support their wives, children, and parents to reunite in Canada. Chinese who cannot afford the fee cannot land. The number of Chinese immigrants dropped from 8,000 in 1882 to 1887. The number of Chinese newcomers dropped from 8,000 in 1882 to 124 in 1887. However, this immigration law could not stop the Chinese immigrants who came to Canada to seek gold. Fifteen years later, in 1900, the Canadian government promulgated the "Chinese Immigration Act" (The Chinese Immigration Act, 1900), which specifically aimed at the "poll tax" of Chinese immigrants. Increased to one hundred Canadian dollars ($100). Even if the "head tax" was doubled, it still could not prevent the Chinese from entering the country. Three years later, the Canadian government attempted to prevent Chinese immigrants and promulgated the "Chinese Immigration Act" (The Chinese Immigration Act, 1903) again in 1903. The "head tax" was quadrupled again, to 500 Canadian dollars ($500). The 500 Canadian dollars, equivalent to 8,000 Canadian dollars ($8,000) in 2003, exceeded the annual income of ordinary people at that time (This amounted to more than a year's wages for the average worker). Earned 365 Canadian dollars. The number of Chinese paying this fee dropped from 4,719 in the previous year to only 8. This $500 head tax limit was extended until 1923.

On July 1, 1923, the Canadian Parliament once again passed the "Chinese Immigration Act", which simply excluded the Chinese from immigration. This bill continued until 1947 (From 1923 to 1947, the Chinese were excluded altogether from immigrating to Canada ). According to this act, the Chinese were the only race excluded. July 1 is called "National Humiliation Day" by the Chinese (While 1 July is celebrated as Canada Day, some Chinese Canadians refer to that date as "National Humiliation Day." ). The situation at that time was written into such a poem "It's hard to get on the shore, full of anger, and there is nothing to do if you cross the border."

4. Disqualification of Chinese to vote

Without voting rights, where does fairness come from?

The Canadian government not only restricts and strictly prohibits Chinese immigrants, but also deprives Chinese immigrants of their citizenship rights (including voting rights) politically. In 1872, the B.C. Provincial Assembly passed a law disqualifying Chinese from voting in provincial elections for the first time, and Saskatchewan also prohibited Chinese from voting in their provincial elections. In 1876, the Municipal Amendment passed by the province of B.C. strictly prohibited Chinese from voting for the election of the mayor or the election of city councilors. Since then, the Chinese in B.C. became completely disenfranchised (the Chinese in B.C. became completely disenfranchised), because the list of federal voters came from the list of voters at the provincial level, and the list of voters at the provincial level came from the list of voters at the municipal level. from the electoral list. That is to say, Chinese immigrants have absolutely no political voice in the three levels of government in Canada, and have completely lost the right to participate in politics.

Chinese are not yet able to engage in professional work (such as lawyers, accountants, doctors, engineers, etc.), and even Chinese who sign up to join the army cannot go to the front to fight, and can only stay in Canada for training.

The Holocaust of Jews in World War II made the Canadian government realize that racial discrimination is inadvisable in Canada. The Canadian government’s laws that discriminate against Chinese people make the world look hypocritical and violate the Charter of the United Nations. At the same time, the Chinese made important contributions in World War II. Contribution, so, from 1947 until 1947, on May 14 of this year, the Canadian government announced the abolition of the "Chinese Exclusion Act", and the Chinese obtained the federal franchise (the federal franchise). In 1949, the Chinese obtained the right to vote in provincial and municipal elections (the right to vote in provincial and municipal elections). Since then, the Chinese have truly owned and been able to exercise full citizenship rights in Canada. This should not be a coincidence. In 1949, when China was liberated and the People's Republic of China was established, Mao Zedong announced to the world that the Chinese people had stood up!

In 1949, both in Canada and in China, a new chapter in the history of Chinese people was opened. From then on, Chinese people can enjoy the rights of citizens and have the possibility of being the masters of their own country.

5. Grasp the right to speak and realize the Jinshan dream

Do not forget the original intention, inspire the future

To remember the past is to inspire the future. With the dream of Jinshan and listening to the call of Jinshan, more and more Chinese immigrated to Canada, and the living standards of Chinese in Canada continued to improve. According to the 2011 census and the 2016 census and the latest data, Chinese immigrants are the largest minority group in Canada (the largest visible minority group: Chinese population 1,769,195, Indian population 1,355,653, Filipino population 662,600, Jewish population 309,650) , is the second largest ethnic group born outside Canada, and Chinese is the third largest language in Canada after English and French. At the same time, hardworking and brave Chinese have made great contributions to Canada’s economic development in history. However, the status of Chinese It did not increase with the growth of the population, nor did it increase because of the affluence of life. On the contrary, incidents of discrimination against Chinese people still occur from time to time, especially in recent years, when "white supremacy" ("white supremacy") has risen. The ideology of "Canada Forever" has revived, and the mission of improving the status of the Chinese and safeguarding the rights and interests of the Chinese has become more urgent and arduous.

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Because China is not freely convertible, its capital market is not open, and its economic development has some unique characteristics, the number of highly harmful flight abroad is actually not as high as that of other developing countries. The flight of the big head usually happens for a reason, not because he has lost confidence in the country as a whole, but because it is a profit-seeking behavior that can be exploited according to the situation. The absolute amount of capital flight data seems to be exaggerated, after knowing the ins and outs, there is no need to be nervous.

1. "Capital flight" is a technical term and cannot be understood in common terms

First, I copied a frightening report from the Taiwanese media:

"According to the estimates of economist Frank R. Gunter, the amount of capital flight from China was as high as US$69 billion per year during 1994-2001, and as much as US$100 billion per year during 1997-2001."

From 1997 to -2001, the GDP was 7,446.3 billion yuan, 7,939.6 billion yuan, 8,205.4 billion yuan, 8,940.4 billion yuan, and 9,593.3 billion yuan. From $900 billion to $1,160 billion. In other words, the capital flight in those years was already much larger than the annual GDP growth.

At first glance, I think it's ridiculous. Isn't this getting poorer and poorer, and it's a fart. But the GDP statistics are clearly growing again. Even if you don't believe the GDP growth figures reported by the central government every year, from your own feeling, China's economic strength has indeed increased tremendously in recent years. The sales of various domestic consumer goods have greatly increased, and the Chinese government also appears to be rich and powerful and spends money everywhere. How come this huge capital flight doesn't seem to have hurt China much?

Thinking about it again, if there was no escape, wouldn't China be booming? Add 100 billion U.S. dollars to GDP every year, and the economic growth rate will increase by more than 10 points out of thin air. It must go to heaven. There must be something wrong with this.

This is simply because the concept of "capital flight" is too complex to be understood intuitively. Even at the level of economics professionals, the definition of capital flight is very inconsistent. There are many methods for estimating the specific amount of foreign flight, and the figures obtained by different methods vary greatly. In particular, the situation of China's capital flight is very different from other countries in the world. Professional estimates often vary by hundreds of billions.

However, the research methods of professionals are still based on data, and there are a lot of relevant data. After the definition, the logical self-consistency is still good, although the estimates of the specific figures of foreign flight among professionals may vary greatly. It's just that this creates a fairly high professional threshold. Without a detailed understanding, it would be absurd to understand capital flight in a "vulgar" way as in the above two paragraphs.

For example, some domestic enterprises and individuals engaged in illegal arbitrage through false import declarations and repeated import declarations, and obtained a lot of foreign exchange, but they did not use it for export at all. At the end of the year, the Administration of Foreign Exchange found that the foreign exchange had nowhere to go, and it was impossible to find out where it went for a while. The management was chaotic, and it might never be found out. Economic professionals found that the foreign exchange reserves should have increased even more, because the illegal arbitrage activities of these enterprises and individuals prevented the foreign exchange reserves from reaching the expected increase. So put the difference into the "capital flight". In fact, the foreign exchange obtained by these criminals is not necessarily fleeing abroad. Perhaps it was through underground channels that he went to a foreign account and fled outright. Maybe it is in your own hands, some hold cash, some are stored in the bank, and they are not included in the foreign exchange reserves, but they are still in the country. It is definitely not clear how many have gone out, so they may all be regarded as fleeing.

After 2003, the RMB was expected to appreciate, and residents and enterprises all over the country went to banks to settle foreign exchange and exchange it into RMB. Now the professionals found that the foreign exchange reserve has increased more than it should have, increasing by half in one year and more than doubling in two years. So use "hot money" to explain. In fact, a lot of money was included in the "fleeing" figure at the beginning, and never left the country at all, and now it is counted as "hot money". This is very inconsistent with people's general understanding. On the surface, a "flight" and a "hot money" are related to overseas, but in fact a large amount is circulating in the country. Therefore, capital flight must not be taken literally. This is really a hard-to-understand professional term.

Let me introduce my understanding of "capital flight". Although I have read some literature, it is completely my own understanding. I hope it is easy to understand. There may be some inaccuracies, and I hope real experts can correct me.

2. "Capital flight" is a box, and everything can be put in it

Although "capital flight" has various definitions, these definitions still have basically the same economic background, but they have different selections for sub-item data. Generally speaking, capital flight is related to foreign exchange-related statistical items such as import and export, current account surplus, capital account balance, foreign exchange reserves, foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign debt, etc.

In a country like China, foreign exchange is theoretically controlled by the state. Some economic activities require foreign exchange, and some economic activities will net foreign exchange, which is finally reflected in changes in foreign exchange reserves. I think it's good to start with a well-known and simple ideal identity:

Current account surplus + FDI net value + new external debt = foreign exchange reserve increase

The current account surplus is actually not much different from the trade surplus. This term is used to distinguish capital items that have nothing to do with physical imports and exports.

The difference between the net value of FDI and FDI is not big, mainly because a small part of FDI does not contribute foreign exchange and is adjusted with the net value. On the left are three projects for earning foreign exchange. The foreign exchange earned is put in the foreign exchange reserve, and the rich people just count the money like the same.

Taking China as an example in 1998, the current account surplus was 31.472 billion U.S. dollars, the net FDI was 41.117 billion U.S. dollars, and the new foreign debt was 15.08 billion U.S. dollars. According to this equation, foreign exchange reserves should increase by 87.669 billion US dollars.

As a result, the data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed that foreign reserves increased by only US$6.248 billion, while US$81.421 billion disappeared. Now get ready for the big box "capital flight" which equals this $81.421 billion.

Congratulation, you already understand what the "World Bank Law" of capital flight estimation is all about. Simple enough, right? It's really simple. I didn't read any professional literature back then. I just heard that netizen Lao Tian mentioned the term "capital flight", so I came up with this method for estimation. Why are foreign reserves gone? Because he fled. This logic is quite simple and easy to understand, but it should be noted that after knowing this logic, "capital flight" cannot be taken literally. The point is not flight, but the disappearance of foreign reserves. In fact, it is a calculated thing, which is already different from its original meaning.

If it is just that simple, it will not show the ability of economists. In order to make more accurate estimates of capital flight, economists have adjusted in two directions (summarized by myself).

The first one is that this identity is too simple, and many legitimate economic activities are also related to the use of foreign exchange, but they are not included in any item of the equation and are ignored. This would exaggerate the amount of capital flight. If foreign tourists come to China to play, China has tourism income, but it is not included in the current account surplus. Short-term foreign currency assets held by the banking system and monetary authorities for foreign exchange transactions are not counted in foreign reserves, but they certainly cannot be counted as flight. Combining these adjustments with the Bank's method will yield a more precise figure for the flight. There are many specific adjustment items, which are relatively professional, and it is meaningless to discuss them in detail. In short, there are some minor adjustments, which generally tend to reduce the amount of capital flight under the World Bank law, but the amount obtained under the World Bank law is not much different.

The second type is not a small adjustment, but a major new addition: enterprises (mainly foreign companies) transfer profits through import and export by buying high and selling low. No matter how you adjust the equation of foreign exchange reserves, this item cannot be derived, because the process is legal on the surface, and no matter how much profit is transferred, it will not be seen in foreign exchange reserves. This is a very large amount, so it is not a small adjustment. The estimation of transferred profits is very professional, involving the sub-item data of imports and exports of multiple countries. The situation in China is special because a large amount of trade is carried out from Hong Kong, which requires special treatment of Hong Kong data. This estimation process is more complicated, and the error is also large. But in any case, it is certain that foreign capital transfers huge profits. China has at least lost a huge amount of tax revenue and lost GDP.

Generally speaking, the estimation of capital flight is based on these two general directions, one is counted as transferred profits, and the other is not. There are a lot of small adjustments to the estimation method within the general direction, and it is not easy for non-professionals to understand. Although the specific amount obtained is referred to as "capital flight", its meaning is very tortuous, and it is basically a calculation result. Other items basically have specific data, and a few items need to be slightly estimated or replaced by data. After adding, subtracting and subtracting together, a value of "capital flight" is obtained. Therefore, "capital flight" is a box. There are many items of data in this box. It is not very clear what it is.

The estimation method of capital flight is introduced above, and the specific economic significance of capital flight is introduced below.

3. How did capital flight not destroy China?

No matter which estimate is used, China's capital flight must be very serious, especially after 1996, and it was not until 2003 that the appreciation of the renminbi was expected to improve. All estimation methods agree that 1998 was the worst year and 1997-2001 was the worst period. The total amount of foreign flight is estimated to be about 300 billion U.S. dollars, if it is too small, it may be close to 1,000 billion U.S. dollars (the literature did not write this way because it was published early, but it can be roughly regarded as such according to its processing method). It is generally believed that it is at least equivalent to the total amount of foreign direct investment, which is offset. Therefore, the words of the Taiwanese media listed at the beginning of this article also have their own origins.

Some people take this as evidence for the theory of China's collapse. Seeing that China is so poor and has escaped with hundreds of billions of dollars, how can the country be messed up? As a result, China not only came here, but also made nearly 700 billion U.S. dollars in foreign exchange reserves. Do you feel that something is wrong? This capital flight is nothing special, is it?

But you can't say that, capital flight is really scary in other countries, it's not a bragging. In the first Russia, during the transition period, fleeing abroad was simply the number one killer. Latin American countries have also suffered from it. The rich have fled abroad, and the country owes a lot of debt.

During the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, capital flight was also evident. There are a lot of data and references listed here, and they are definitely not blowing.

According to my conclusion, capital flight is still very powerful, but it is not as terrible as the hundreds of billions of dollars listed on the surface. The scary thing is that if it is combined with other factors such as currency devaluation and capital account opening, something big will happen.

If a country's currency is doomed to depreciate sharply, the currency is also freely convertible, and capital markets such as the stock market and foreign exchange market allow foreign capital to flow freely, then capital flight will definitely be fatal. Some rich people with foresight and foreign capital in this country will engage in capital flight, usually exchanging various local currency assets for foreign exchange by various means, which reduces the foreign exchange assets of the authorities. Then these foreign exchange evaded supervision and went abroad and fled. When it reaches a certain level, the authorities can no longer support it, and the local currency depreciates sharply.

This is equivalent to the disappearance of the country's valuable foreign exchange. In exchange for a pile of sharply depreciated local currency, the country's assets have decreased in net terms. After doing it several times, the country becomes poorer and poorer, the rich and foreign capital take advantage of it, and evil phenomena such as the polarization of the rich and the poor appear on a large scale. The country has no choice but to sell the assets of the whole people, such as natural resources and infrastructure, to foreign capital to borrow foreign debts to maintain the operation of the country. In this way, wealth has been transferred abroad on a large scale. There is no large-scale embezzlement and flight involving bureaucrats, but the phenomenon undoubtedly exists, further aggravating the economic disaster.

China's capital flight situation is very different, unique in several ways. Of course, the main reason is that the monetary policy is independent, and there is no depreciation, but there is an expectation of appreciation. This is very important. These unique features limit the harm of capital flight to a large extent, so that China has not suffered from the common economic disasters of developing countries, although only in terms of the scale of capital flight, China can be regarded as relatively serious. Therefore, China's capital flight must be understood and analyzed separately. It cannot be said that all other people's flight has an accident, and China must also have an accident.

First of all, as far as the amount of capital flight is concerned, high estimates generally focus on the item of "foreign companies transferring profits". The accumulation of this item over the years is hundreds of billions of dollars. But when it comes to the transfer of profits by foreign companies, although China's losses are huge, they are not as serious as they appear on the surface, and it can be said that they are not fatal. Assuming that foreign companies do not transfer profits to foreign partner companies by importing at high prices and exporting at low prices, their profits will be much higher, for example, an additional US$350 billion, and China's GDP will also increase by that much. At the same time, China can also collect value-added tax on these profits. Although there are preferential treatment, it will still receive a lot, such as 50 billion US dollars. The 50 billion US dollars is definitely a net loss, which may reduce the GDP growth rate by 0.5 percentage points each year (all are informal blind estimates to find the feeling). But isn't 350 billion yuan counted as a net loss of flight? That's negotiable. If this is regarded as a net loss, it means that China's GDP could have increased by more than 15%, but the result was less than 10%. I think 15% growth is an ideal situation, no matter how to grasp the management of foreign capital is impossible. This is equivalent to the fact that foreign capital is a living Lei Feng, and most of the profits are kept in China. This is absolutely impossible. If China manages in this direction, foreign capital will also run away.

Now China's response is to collect import link tax, and the value-added tax is not paid. You have to pay part of the money for high-priced imports, so you can still collect some taxes. In recent years, the import and export have grown rapidly, and the import link tax in 2004 was 370 billion yuan, which is quite a lot. Coupled with the employment of foreign companies, it still contributes to the Chinese economy. Talking about how harmful it is for foreign companies to transfer profits, and how hundreds of billions of dollars are going to escape, the specific number can be discussed on a matter-of-fact basis. But it certainly cannot be used as evidence for the theory of collapse. This is a bit like the argument of the Great Leap Forward that "30 million people died of starvation", considering babies who were not born at all as part of the death toll. It can be said that if there was no Great Leap Forward famine, how many babies would have been born under normal circumstances, but these people would not have been born, but it cannot be said that these babies who were not born died abnormally. This is by no means to say that the transfer of profits by foreign companies should not be taken seriously. It must be taken seriously, but it is not such a fatal thing.

Such a large amount of flight will go down. The amount of remaining "traditional" outflows is also quite large, still in the hundreds of billions of dollars. These also have flower heads inside.

There are quite a few professional articles that have analyzed the direct positive correlation between China's capital flight and FDI, because domestic capital must pretend to be foreign capital to obtain preferential policies and "investment in a roundabout way". Some professional articles use data processing methods to prove this point from the data, which is also consistent with the actual situation. This phenomenon is unique to China and not common in developing countries. These capitals fled to Hong Kong or the Cayman Islands, but they still came back. The losses suffered by the country were not as great as they appeared on the surface. It is true that they have gone overseas, but in fact they are probably some fake foreign devils or fake Hong Kong people. His main economic activities are still in mainland China, and his tax contributions are mainly in mainland China. If the country's situation is unfavorable, these people may really run away, but if the overall situation is good, they generally will not take the initiative to run away to ruin the situation. Therefore, from the perspective of preventing collapse, even if it is not a force that can be united, it cannot be regarded as a hostile force. Professionals have analyzed that such flight may account for more than 20% of FDI.

There is a swarm of domestic enterprises and residents. In 1998, everyone was afraid that the RMB would depreciate. As a result, various people tried to exchange foreign currencies and arbitrage foreign exchange, and the price of the dollar on the black market was as high as 9 or more. In fact, if they took foreign currency, they did not necessarily want to escape. Although China's control is not as strict as before, it is not so easy to escape, and it is much stricter than other developing countries. They just feel comfortable holding dollars. Later, in 2003, it was said that the value would be appreciated, and they rushed to the bank to settle foreign exchange and exchange it for RMB, which caused a sharp increase in foreign exchange reserves. I tend to think that the actions of these people have caused China's foreign exchange reserve growth curve to "be low at the beginning and high at the end". It was originally relatively straight, but it turned out to be a seriously distorted curve. But it cannot be said that "capital flight" is so serious. Although it is counted in the flight data, it is still in the country and deposited in the bank.

The heinous crime that really affects the stability of the country is that corrupt officials fled abroad with their money, or transferred their assets to their relatives abroad. This is really running away, except for being caught, generally will not come back. How much is this part? From an absolute figure point of view, it may be around 200 billion yuan (also a blind estimate), which is quite a lot. But compared to the hundreds of billions of dollars discussed in the academic circles, it must be much less. Since China's economy is very large, in a purely economic sense, the flight of tens of billions of dollars will not affect the overall situation because it has lasted for many years, but it will have a very bad impact on people's hearts.

Generally speaking, because China is not freely convertible, its capital market is not open, and its economic development has some unique features, the number of very harmful flight is actually not as high as that of other developing countries. The flight of the big head usually happens for a reason, not because he has lost confidence in the country as a whole, but because it is a profit-seeking behavior that can be exploited according to the situation. The absolute amount of capital flight data seems to be exaggerated, after knowing the ins and outs, there is no need to be nervous.

After knowing this background knowledge, we can also have a deeper understanding of the Chinese government's monetary policy. Why didn't it depreciate in 1998? Capital flight is an important factor. If the value is devalued, the country will definitely lose money. People who take RMB arbitrage get a bargain, and it is difficult to control what will happen. Now that the appreciation pressure is so great, why can't it appreciate? From the perspective of this article, one reason is that appreciation expectations can help reduce flight, so there is no need to honor such expectations.

  一、心怀金山梦，身经离乡苦

或许您和我一样，第一次看到“金山”这个词的时候，在纳闷，为什么要用这样一个词呢？

金山（Gold Mountain，often rendered in English as Gum Shan or Gumshan），在华裔移民历史上，曾泛指发现了金矿的北美西部，包括现在的美国加利福尼亚州和加拿大英属哥伦比亚省，一般特指美国的圣弗朗西斯科(也叫三藩市，San Francisco)。后来，澳大利亚的墨尔本（Melbourne）也发现了金矿，墨尔本就成了新金山，而美国加利福尼亚州的圣弗朗西斯科成了旧金山。    

1848年，美国内华达山脉(Sierra Nevada)，一位木匠在萨克拉门托河谷(Sacremento Valley)推动水车的水流中发现黄金，引发了世界淘金热（Gold Rush)。消息传到中国，广东台山上千人开始奔赴美国西部寻找金矿，希望一日暴富。“欲爱富，贪走金山路”，是当时流行的一句诗。淘金的目的地被称为“金山”。淘金热期间，大批华人移民（当年曾叫卖猪仔）美国和加拿大，金山，是当时的移民公司和雇主用来招募华工、吸引新移民的时髦词，是人们向往和憧憬美好生活的象征，金山成了华裔移民的代名词。

金山，也是加拿大1867年建国前大批华裔移民的最初动因，吸引着大批怀着梦想、向往美好生活的华人涌入当时还称为西北美洲的今天的加拿大英属哥伦比亚省地区。

图片：最早移民纸

然而，满怀着梦想和希望而至的淘金客发现，华人并不受欢迎，欧洲裔移民对华人充满敌意（Despite their importance to the Canadian economy, including the historic construction of the CPR, many European Canadians were hostile to Chinese immigration）。即使在经济上给加拿大作出了巨大的贡献，尤其是修建了前所未有的横贯东西的铁路（Canadian Pacific Railway (CPR))，从而使得加拿大联邦政府的成立成为可能，华人还是饱受歧视，没有平等可言。华人是加拿大历史上唯一一个受到“人头税”移民限制甚至被拒之移民门外的族裔，而且，华人在政治上没有真正的公民权利，没有投票权，没有参政和从政的权利。

金山梦唤：悠悠移民路，漫漫参政途

- 加拿大华裔早期移民与参政是如此的艰辛！！！00:00

二、亚细亚的孤儿，虽为匆匆过客，

历史遗忘了他们，他们却创造了历史！

1788年，英国皮毛商约翰-梅雷斯（John Meares）从广州和澳门招收了50个华人水手和工匠，把他们带到温哥华岛殖民地（Colony of Vancouver Island）的努特卡湾（Nootka Sound），他们1月22日从广州启航，5月份抵达目的地。这帮华工帮梅雷斯在那里修建了一个贸易站，包括一个码头、一个要塞和一艘叫“西北美利坚”（the North-West America）的帆船。梅雷斯便利用这个贸易站收购（交换）海狮皮，然后运到广州卖。

第二年，1789年，约翰-梅雷斯又从广东招了70个华工跟随两艘船开往温哥华岛，但是他自己没有跟随商船走，而是留在了广州。与此同时，西班牙人垄断北美西北海岸的贸易，不断地扩张领土，他们在阿拉斯加听说俄罗斯人要在努特卡湾修建贸易站，便赶往那里，他们到达努特卡湾时，发现有三艘船，两艘是美国船，在那里过冬，另一艘便是刚刚抵达努特卡湾的约翰-梅雷斯的商船。西班牙人把船长威廉-道格拉斯（William Douglas）和船上的中国人抓起来并监禁起来，这就是当时差点点燃英国和西班牙战争的有名的努特卡政治危机(Nootka Crisis)。屈服于英国当时强大的海军实力，西班牙人不久放了船长，让他滚出努特卡湾永远不要再见到他。部分中国船员跟着船长道格拉斯回到了中国。其他华工则被押到附近的煤矿（当时还没有发现金矿）当矿工，有的华工和当地的土著人结了婚，有的后来被带到墨西哥。这120个人就是最早漂泊到加拿大的第一批华人。此后半个多世纪，一直到十九世纪五十年代的淘金热潮（Gold Rush），就再没有听说有华人到过北美西部。

这120个华人也没有在加拿大历史上留下任何其他的记录，他们可以算是匆匆过客，却轻轻地打开了加拿大华裔移民史的第一页。

三、倍受歧视辱，难圆金山梦

“人头税”排华法案

大批华人移民温哥华岛，是1858年5月开始的，弗雷泽淘金热（Fraser Canyon Gold Rush）期间，洪门兄弟会把大量华人从加利福尼亚带到温哥华的弗雷泽河谷（Fraser River Valley）淘金。此时，温哥华岛被称为新大陆（Mainland），新的“金山”。淘金热潮的消息远播中国并吸引了大批华人从中国跑到温哥华淘金。到1860年，仅两年时间，估计就有7000华人到了温哥华岛。

大批华人的涌入，引起了欧洲裔移民的不安，他们以华人可恶和危险为由，歧视和排挤华人，反对让华人享受全面的公民权（“unfit for full citizenship ... obnoxious to a free community and dangerous to the state.”）。为了让华人帮忙修建铁路，加拿大政府对华人采取宽容的态度。

然而，一旦铁路修成，加拿大政府便开始阻止华人移民加拿大(As soon as the construction of the Canadian Pacific Railway was completed in 1885, Canada took steps to stop Chinese immigration.)。1885年，加拿大政府通过“华人移民法”(The Chinese Immigration Act, 1885)，也就是史上有名的“排华法案”（ the Chinese Exclusion Act ）。根据这个法案，想要入境加拿大的工人及其家属必须交50加元的“人头税”(Under the Chinese Immigration Act (1885), the Canadian government forced every Chinese worker, and family member, wanting to enter Canada to pay a $50 head tax.)。而当时的这50加元相当于2008年的1100加元（In 2008, this amount would buy goods worth $1,100)。要交这50加元是非常不容易的，要知道华人当时一天的工钱只有一块加元（Chinese workers willing to accept only $1 a day while white, black and native workers were paid three times that amount.），就是不吃不喝，也要干差不多两个月的活才能挣到这笔钱。华人是唯一一个要交这笔昂贵人头税的种族(No immigrants from any other country ever had to pay such a tax to enter Canada.)。

中国的某些大资本经过这些年在媒体领域的深耕布局，到底话语权控制力达到了什么程度？真相又一次侮辱了我们的想象力。

蒋总舆情的撤热搜删帖限流，这些操作，在全网展开，只用了很短的时间就搞定。

一个阿里高管，就可以享受到这种舆论保护力度的背后，是资本令人心惊胆寒的舆论控制力。

这一场看起来不过是情节普通的感情纠葛，官方不可能介入，只有资本才有这种力量。

网民这经不是第一次感觉到某资本的舆论控制力了。早在2017年，因为赵薇事件，网民就充分领教过，不但上不了热搜，连共青团中央的官微内容都被删除过。

大资本对于话语权的控制力，这次又通过这种最八卦的剧情，资本的强悍之力，呈现在吃瓜群众面前。

阿里是国内最热衷于收购和控制媒体的资本，对话语权的重视程度少有人可比。

《阿里的媒体帝国》一文有一段是这么写的：

从电商到金融、电影、视频、医疗等，曾经我们以为阿里巴巴只是一个传统电商平台，现在阿里则像一艘航空母舰一样霸占着中国互联网的半壁江山。

阿里收购媒体在2016年之前被关注的比较多，后来这个话题就比较沉寂了，不知道是不是有人特意控制这方面的话题，转向低调。

当时有人还汇总并制作了阿里截至到2015年底投资和收购的媒体名单：

从这份名单里，阿里对媒体的布局是全方位的，既有社交媒体，又有财经媒体、网络视频、影视娱乐，还有境外媒体。当时有一篇文章《收购南华早报之后，阿里传媒帝国渐趋成型》是这么总结的：

浏览阿里近几年搭建起来的传媒矩阵，既有由控盘优酷土豆和阿里影业及投资入股华谊兄弟、光线传媒和华数传媒等组成的影视媒体，也有由入股新浪微博和投资tango与snapchat1以及陌陌等组成的社交媒体；既有由无界、封面、今日头条等打造而成的移动端新媒体，也有由36氪、虎嗅、钛媒体组成的公关广告媒体，此外还有阿里音乐传媒。再加上由《南华早报》等组成的传统媒体阵容，阿里巴巴的传媒帝国版图已扩至25家媒体。

时间又过去了四年多，阿里现在在媒体中的布局和控制力只会更强吧。

一分耕耘一分收获，果然每在关键时候就可以收到奇效。

资本投资媒体的兴趣，当然是媒体承载的话语权。

媒体被称为第四种权力，但我认为这种定位偏低了。

现代社会，掌控了话语权就是掌握了制空权。没有话语权的空中保护，即便强势如刘强东，出现负面信息，一样每次都被整的灰头土脸，毫无反击之力。

话语权不仅仅可以用在市场竞争中占尽优势。在资本主义国家，资本通过话语权，都可以干预政治。资本话语权到一定程度，不但可以为自己的企业创造更多的利润，而且话语权里还可以出政权。

西方体制经常以政府不控制媒体作为优越性的特点，其实，这才是资本控制国家，实现金权至上的关键。把选举设计为比拼资金的游戏，把政治献金合法化，再把媒体交由资本控制之后，资本控制政治都只是技术问题了。

美国资本控制话语权，目的不只是能够带来商业利益那么简单，是要控制整个国家的，通过控制政客，让整个国家机器为资本服务。

资本是一种全球现象，全天下的资本，梦想其实都是一样的。

美国梦就是全世界资本共同的梦，美国体制就是全世界资本都梦想的体制。

美国资本实现了对话语权的高度垄断。我看到一篇文章提供的数据是：1983年，美国90%的媒体由50家公司控制。2011年，美国90%的媒体由6家公司控制。

美国任何一个政客要想登上权力顶峰，至少要获得这几家公司的其中一部分的支持。

要挑战资本利益的，任何一家公司都不会提供媒体支持，等于连参加政治游戏的机会都没有。能参与到竞选游戏的，都是自己人，或者自己放心的人，都是资本家或特朗普说的“资本家的狗”。

现代社会，利用简单粗暴的方式解决问题的少了，大多数问题，都用不见硝烟的方式，在表面上和风细雨的解决。

任何不见逍遥的解决方式，都离不开媒体的支持或掩护。

话语权在资本手里，作用越来越大。

资本控制媒体，就自然要讲资本的政治。

哪个国家的体制对资本最友好，最有利于资本控制更多资源，就得到全世界资本媒体的推崇。美国体制，不但允许资本控制经济和社会资源，而且还允许资本控制政治资源，让金权居于权力金字塔的顶端，这是全世界大资本都梦想实现的制度。

相反，限制资本控制更多资源的体制，都是资本媒体要否定的对象。

一些大资本愿意拿出真金白银投资媒体，建立自己的媒体帝国，当然是为了影响舆论，乃至控制舆论，掌握话语权，为自己所用。

话语权被谁控制，就要为谁服务。

中国舆论场上的很多怪现象，用常理不太好解释的事情，一深入到资本这个层面，一切就清晰了起来。

为什么中国舆论场一直有一股强大的力量，在无底线地否定中国体制，同时在为美国体制提供无限度的辩护？

为什么针对中国体制的谣言传播力极快，辟谣能力极弱；而针对美国的谣言却正好相反，传播能力很弱，辟谣能力极强？

为什么崇拜美国体制的人，在中国可以有那么大的话语权，反对和质疑他们的人，话语权力量却很弱？

为什么出现政府方面的负面消息，就可以瞬间形成热点，而关于资本的负面新闻就不容易形成热点？

为什么国企负面信息往往被上升为公有制的体制问题，私企的负面就不会被主流媒体追问为私有制的体制问题？

为什么公立基金会出现负面信息，大小媒体一拥而上，而私立基金会出现负面信息，大小媒体经常都集体视而不见呢？

一切都是源于一些资本通过有意识的布局控制了话语权。（他们为了迷惑中国文人，记住，经常胡改文章加入自己的元素，以达到渗透的目的，要十分警惕哦）

一些反常的舆论现象，总是让人感觉有一只看不见的手在后面推动，这只手就是这些资本。

我在以前的文章中分析过，为什么市场化媒体，要自觉的集体奉行和大规模使用双重标准，比如对国企和私企，对公立医院和私立医院，对公立基金会和私立基金会，以及这种双标背后市场化媒体奉行的政治正确原则：资本利益至上，资本的话语权为资本利益服务、为资本形象代言，这是必然当然，自然而然的事情。要不，资本辛辛苦苦的创办媒体、收购媒体干嘛？

正因为市场化媒体是严格的遵守着资本的政治自觉，当市场化媒体取得了足够的话语权，事情的真相就变得不那么重要，因为资本需要的真相是可以通过媒体的话语权制造出来的，可以对事实真相进行解构之后重新组合形成资本需要的真相，这种真相也是可以通过媒体话语权植入到公众大脑当中去的，是非也是可以由媒体来塑造的。

因为媒体在对待红会和私立基金会问题上，采取了双重标准，公众印象中，就是不同的结果

在私人资本主导的媒体笔下，公有制的所有因素，公有制企业，公立医院、公立基金会，都是带有原罪的。

市场化媒体，最反对讲资本的原罪，但是却最热衷于讲述公有制的“原罪”说。

所有的双标，归根朔源，都是用在公有制与私有制之间。

双标之下无真相，至少没有完整的真相，部分真相，不等于就是真相，还可能跟真相相反。

话语权足够，资本就获得了生产“真相”的能力。越是喜欢自我标榜言论自由的资本媒体，就越喜欢生产“真相”。

现在还有不少人从表面看问题，以为私立基金会就是弱势，以为官办的基金会就是强势，这种误解也发生在国企和私企之间。

话语权的重要性，不仅仅体现在经济和社会领域，政治领域也如此。

在失控的笔杆子面前，苏联的几百万全副武装的军队，是无力保卫政权的。

有前苏这么一个先例存在，还需要论证话语权的重要性吗？

美国为什么政权稳固？不是因为美国政权不腐败，美国是把腐败做到合法化方面最有成就的国家，连政治献金这种权钱交易都被相当程度的合法化，美国是对笔杆子重要性认识最清楚，对笔杆子把控力度最强的国家。美国人能把国民洗脑到什么程度？看图：

美国的主流媒体，有几家媒体人敢出来质疑美国的体制？分分钟会让你从此在主流媒体中找不到位置。甚至不用FBI出手，美国的主流媒体老板和管理层，发现苗头会立即清理队伍，不换思想马上换人。

媒体市场化的核心要义是允许资本控制媒体。媒体市场化能够保证自己的主流媒体不反美国体制，因为仅靠掌握媒体的资本家自己的政治自觉，就能确保媒体人的队伍净化。社会主义国家却不能采用媒体市场化，因为资本主导下的市场化媒体显然是向往美国体制的，无论哪个国家都会这样，少有例外。

希望中国不会出现美国那样的大资本高度垄断媒体话语权的事实发生。

这个法案严重影响了华人移民，昂贵的登陆费（landing fees)意味着华人难以支持妻儿父母来加拿大团聚，付不起费用的华人无法登陆，华人移民人数从1882年的8000人骤降到1887年的124人（The number of Chinese newcomers dropped from 8,000 in 1882 to 124 in 1887）。可是，这个移民法并不能阻止到加拿大淘金的华人移民，十五年后，1900年加拿大政府再次颁布“华人移民法”(The Chinese Immigration Act, 1900)，将专门针对华人移民的“人头税”增加到100加元（$100）。即使“人头税”翻倍，还是不能阻止华人入境，又过了三年，加拿大政府企图杜绝中国人移民，于1903年再次颁布“华人移民法”(The Chinese Immigration Act, 1903)，将华人“人头税”再翻五倍，增加到500加元（$500）。这500加元，相当于2003年的8000加元（$8000），超过当时普通老百姓一年的收入（This amounted to more than a year's wages for the average worker），华人就是天天干活，一年也就挣到365加元。交这笔费用的华人从上一年的4719人一下降到只有8个人。这500加元的人头税限制一直延续到1923年。

1923年7月1日，加拿大国会再次通过“华人移民法”，干脆把华人完全排除在移民的门外，这个法案一直延续到1947年（From 1923 to 1947, the Chinese were excluded altogether from immigrating to Canada）。根据这个法案，华人是唯一一个被拒之门外的种族。七月一日被华人称为“全国耻辱日”（While 1 July is celebrated as Canada Day, some Chinese Canadians refer to that date as "National Humiliation Day." ）。当时的这种状况，被写进了这样一句诗“抵岸难登气满肚，越界无策奈谁何”。

四、取消华人投票资格

没有投票权，公平从何来？

加拿大政府不仅限制并严禁华人移民，而且在政治上剥脱华裔移民的公民权（包括投票权）。1872年，B.C.省议会通过法律首次取消华人参加省选投票的资格，萨省(Saskatchewan)也禁止华人参加他们的省选投票。1876年，B.C.省通过的市政修订案，严禁华人参加选举市长或者选举市议员的投票。从此，华人在B.C.省完全没有选举投票权(the Chinese in B.C. became completely disenfranchised)，因为联邦选民的名单是从省一级的选民名单中来的，而省一级的选民名单又是从市级的选民名单中来的。这就是说，华人移民在加拿大三级政府完全没有政治发言权、完全失去了参政的权利。

华人还不能从事专业工作（比如律师、会计、医生、工程师等等），甚至华人报名参军，也不能上前线打仗，只能留在加拿大训练。

二战对犹太人的大屠杀，使加拿大政府认识到种族歧视在加拿大是不可取的，加拿大政府歧视华人的法律使其让世人看起来虚伪，而且是违反联合国宪章的，同时华人在二战中作出了重要贡献，所以，1947年，一直到1947年，这年5月14日，加拿大政府宣布废除了“排华法案”，华人取得了联邦选举权（the federal franchise)。1949年，华人获得了省选和市选的投票权（ the right to vote in provincial and municipal elections），从此，从此，华人在加拿大才真正拥有并能行使公民的权利（full citizenship rights）。这该不是一个巧合吧，1949年中国解放，中华人民共和国成立，毛泽东向全世界宣布中国人民从此站起来了！

1949年，无论是在加拿大，还是在中国，都翻开了华人历史的新篇章，华人从此可以享受公民的权利，有了当家作主的可能。

五、掌握话语权，实现金山梦

不忘初心，激励未来

回忆过去，是为了激励未来。怀着金山的梦想，倾听金山的召唤，越来越多的华人移民加拿大，而且华人在加拿大的生活水平在不断提高。据2011年人口普查和2016年人口普查及最新的数据显示，华裔移民是加拿大最大的少数族裔（the largest visible minority group: 华裔人口1,769,195，印度裔人口1,355,653，菲律宾裔人口662,600，犹太人口309,650），是加拿大境外出生的第二大族裔，汉语是加拿大除了英语和法语以外的第三大语言，同时，勤劳勇敢的华人在历史上对加拿大的经济发展作出了巨大的贡献，然而，华人的地位并没有随着人口的增长而提高，也没有因为生活的富足而上升，相反，歧视华人的事件还时常发生，尤其是近年，“白人至上主义”("white supremacy”)抬头，当年的“White Canada Forever”的思想观念死灰复燃，提高华人地位、维护华人权益的使命显得更加迫切和艰巨。

导读

由于中国不可以自由兑换，资本市场不开放，经济发展又有一些独特之处，危害性很大的外逃实际上不如其它发展中国家多。大头的外逃一般事出有因，倒不是对整个国家丧失了信心，是一种趋利行为，可以因势利导。对绝对数额看起来很夸张的资本外逃数据，知道其来龙去脉之后，不必紧张。

一. “资本外逃”是专业名词，不能通俗理解

首先抄一段台湾媒体吓人的报道：

“根据经济学家Frank R. Gunter的估计，1994-2001年期间，中国的资本外逃金额豪达每年690亿美元，在1997-2001年期间更豪达每年1000亿美元。”

1997至-2001年国内生产总值分别是74463亿元，79396亿元，82054亿元，89404亿元，以及95933亿元。从9000亿美元增长到了11600亿美元。这么说那几年的资本外逃已经比每年的GDP增长还多多了。

粗粗一看觉得很荒唐，这不是越逃越穷了么，还增长个屁啊。可是GDP统计明明又是在增长。就算不信中央每年报的GDP增长数字，从自己的感觉来看，这些年中国的经济实力确实是有巨幅增长。国内各种消费品的销售都有很大幅度提升，国际上中国政府也显得财大气粗到处花钱。这巨额资本外逃怎么好象没怎么害到中国？

再转头一想，如果没有外逃，那中国不是大发了么？每年GDP加个1000亿美元，经济增长率凭空多出10个点以上，得上天去了。这肯定有什么问题。

这完全是因为“资本外逃”这个概念太过复杂，不能出于直观理解。即使在经济学专业人士层次，资本外逃的定义也很不一致。外逃具体数额的估计方法有很多种，不同方法得到的数字差异不小。特别是中国资本外逃的情况，与世界各国非常不同，专业人士的估算经常有上千亿的出入。

但是专业人士的研究方法还是以数据为根基的，相关数据亦复不少，定义好以后，逻辑自洽性还是不错的，虽然专业人士内部对外逃具体数字估算会有较大分歧。只是这就造成了相当高的专业门槛。如果没有细致的了解，如上面两段那样“庸俗化”地去理解资本外逃，就会显得很荒唐。

例如，某些国内企业与个人通过假报进口、重复申报进口搞非法套汇，弄到了很多外汇，但根本没有用于出口。年末一结算，外汇管理局发现这些外汇不知所终，一时查不清到哪里去了，管理比较混乱，可能永远也查不清了。经济专业人士发现外汇储备本来应该增加更多的，因为这些企业与个人非法套汇活动使得外储没有达到应有的增幅。于是就把差额统计进了“资本外逃”。其实，这些犯罪分子搞来的外汇并不一定是外逃了。也许是通过地下渠道走到了外国账户不折不扣地外逃了。也许是捏在自己手里，有的拿着现钞，有的存在银行里，都不计入外汇储备，但还在国内。到底有多少出去了，肯定是搞不清的，干脆就全部当成外逃。

2003年以后，人民币有升值预期，全国居民与企业纷纷把手头的外汇到银行去结汇换成人民币。这下专业人士发现外汇储备超过了应有的增幅，一年增加了一半，两年翻倍还多。于是用“热钱”来解释。其实很多当初计入“外逃”数值中了，根本没有出境，现在又被计成“热钱”。这就与人们的一般理解很不相符了，一个“外逃”，一个“热钱”，表面上看都是与境外有关的，其实很大数额就是在国内打转转。所以说，对资本外逃，一定不能望文生义，这实在是一个不好理解的专业名词。

下面介绍我对“资本外逃”的理解，虽然看了些文献，但完全是自己的理解，希望讲得通俗好懂。也许会有些不正确之处，希望真正的专家指正。

二. “资本外逃”是个框，啥都可以往里装

“资本外逃”虽然有各种定义，但这些定义还是有基本相同的经济背景，只是对分项数据各自取舍不同。总的来说，资本外逃与进出口、经常项目顺差、资本项目收支、外汇储备、外商直接投资(FDI)、外债等等这些与外汇有关的统计项目有关。

像中国这样的国家，理论上外汇是国家管制的，有些经济活动要花外汇，有些经济活动会净收入外汇，最后都体现在外汇储备的变动上了。我认为可以从一个著名而简单的理想恒等式开始介绍：

经常项目顺差 + FDI净值 + 新增外债 = 外汇储备增额

经常项目顺差其实与贸易顺差分别不大，用这个词以区别与实物进出口无关的资本项目。

FDI净值与FDI差别也不大，主要是有一小部分FDI并不贡献外汇，用净值作调整。左边是三个挣外汇的项目，挣来外汇放到外汇储备里，财主一样地数钱就行了。

以中国1998年为例，经常项目顺差是314.72亿美元，FDI净值是411.17亿美元，新增外债是150.8亿美元。按这个等式，外汇储备应该增加876.69亿美元。

结果外汇管理局数据显示外储只增加了62.48亿美元，有814.21亿美元不见了。现在准备好大框“资本外逃”，它就等于这个814.21亿美元。

Congratulation，你已经明白了资本外逃估算的“世行法”是怎么回事了。够简单吧？的确是简单，当年我什么专业文献都没看过，光听说网友老田说了“资本外逃”的名词，也想出了这个办法作估算。为什么外储不见了？因为外逃了呗。这个逻辑相当简单易懂，但是要注意，知道了这个逻辑，对“资本外逃”就不能望文生义了，重点不是外逃，而是外储不见了。实际上是一个算出来的东西，与其原意已经有差别了。

如果只是这么简单，就显不出经济学家的本事了。经济学家们为了对资本外逃作出更准确的估算，有两个方向的调整（我自己总结的）。

第一种，是认为这个恒等式太过简单，有很多正当经济活动也与外汇使用有关，却不在等式的任何一项当中，被忽略了。这就会夸大资本外逃的数额。如境外游客来中国玩，中国有旅游收入，却不在经常项目顺差里。银行系统和货币当局为进行外汇交易所持有的短期外币资产，不计入外储，但肯定不能算外逃。把这些调整项与世行法结合考虑，会得出更精确的外逃数额。具体的调整项目不少，比较专业，细论也没意思。总之是一些较小的调整，总体上倾向于减少世行法资本外逃的数额，但与世行法得出的数额相差不大。

第二种，不是小调整，而是新加入一大项：企业（主要是外企）通过进出口高买低卖转移利润。这一项无论如何调整外汇储备的等式都是得不出的，因为过程表面上是合法的，转移再多利润外汇储备上都看不出来。这一项数额非常大，所以不是小调整。对转移利润的估算非常专业，涉及多国的进出口分项数据，中国的情况还特别，因为大量贸易从香港走，这就要对香港的数据特别处理。这种估算过程比较复杂，误差也很大。但无论如何，外资转移巨额利润是确定无疑的事，中国至少损失了巨额税收，也损失了GDP。

总的来说，对资本外逃的估算就是这两个大方向，一个算转移利润，一个不算。大方向内部对估算方法的小调整就非常多了，不是专业的想搞懂不容易。得出的具体数额，虽然都安之以“资本外逃”的名词，其实其含义非常曲折，根本就是一个计算结果。其它项基本都是有具体数据的，很少几项要稍估一点或者用替代数据，一起加加减减之后，得出一个“资本外逃”的数值。所以说“资本外逃”是个框，这个框里装了很多项数据，其本身是什么，到不是很清楚了。

以上介绍了资本外逃的估算方法，下面介绍资本外逃体现的具体经济意义。

三. 资本外逃怎么没搞垮中国？

无论按照哪一种估算，中国的资本外逃肯定很严重的，特别是96年以后，直到2003年才因为人民币升值预期转好。所有的估算方法一致认为1998年是最严重的一年，1997-2001年是最严重的一个时期。总的外逃数额，估算少的也有约3000亿美元，多的就没边了，可能接近10000亿美元（文献因为发表得早并没有这样写，但是按其处理方法大致可以这样认为）。一般认为，至少相当于外商直接投资总额，抵消掉了。所以本文开头列的台湾媒体的话，也是其来有自。

有些人就拿这个来当中国崩溃论的证据。看中国这么穷，还逃走好几千亿美元，国家还怎么混？结果中国不仅混过来了，外汇储备还搞成了近7000亿美元。您是不是觉得有什么地方不对劲？这资本外逃，没什么了不起吧？

可不能这么说，资本外逃在其它国家确实很可怕，真不是吹的。头一个俄罗斯，转型那段时间，外逃简直就是第一杀手。拉美国家也饱受其害，富人跑到国外，国家欠一屁股债。

东南亚金融危机的时候，资本外逃也很明显。这列起数据与参考文献都是一大堆的，绝对不是吹的。

根据我的总结，资本外逃还是很厉害的，但并不是表面上列个几千亿美元那么可怕。它可怕就在于如果与货币贬值、资本项目开放等其它因素结合在一起，就会出大事。

如果一个国家货币注定要大幅贬值了，货币也是可以自由兑换的，股市汇市等资本市场也任外资随意往来，那么资本外逃肯定会要命。这个国家一些先知先觉的富人、外资会搞资本外逃，一般是拿各种本币资产用各种手段换外汇，使得当局外汇资产减少。然后这些外汇规避监管跑到国外去了，外逃了。搞到了一定程度，当局就撑不住了，本币大幅贬值。

这相当于国家值钱的外汇不见了，换回来一堆大幅贬值的本币，国家资产就是净减少了。搞多几次，国家越来越穷，富人与外资捞到了便宜，贫富分化等罪恶现象就大规模出现。国家没办法，只好出卖自然资源基础设施等全民资产给外资借外债维持国家运行，财富就这样大规模转移到国外去了。这里没有涉及官吏阶层的大规模贪污外逃，但现象无疑是存在的，进一步加重了经济灾难。

中国的资本外逃情况很不一样，独特之处有好几点。当然主要是货币政策自主，没有贬值，反而挺到了有升值预期，这一点非常重要。这些独特之处很大程度限制了资本外逃的危害，使得中国没有遭到发展中国家普遍的经济灾难，虽然仅就资本外逃的规模而言，中国可以算是比较严重的。所以对中国的资本外逃，要单独理解分析，不能说人家外逃都出了事，中国肯定也要出事。

首先就资本外逃的数额而言，偏高的估算一般是着重考虑了“外企转移利润”这一项。就这一项历年累加也是好几千亿美元。但是细论外企转移利润，中国的损失虽然很大，但并不象表面那么严重，可以说不致命。假设外企不搞高价进口低价出口转移利润到外国的伙伴公司，它们的利润就会多出很多，如多出3500亿美元，中国的GDP也会增加这么多。同时中国也可以对这些利润收增值税，虽然有优惠，仍然会收到不少，如500亿美元。这500亿美元，肯定是净损失了，每年可能会使得GDP增长率少0.5个百分点（都是非正式瞎估找找感觉）。但是不是把3500亿都算成外逃净损失？这就很可议。如果把这当成净损失，相当于中国的GDP本来可以增长15%以上，结果只有不到10%。我以为增长15%是一种理想情况，无论怎么抓外资管理都是不可能。这相当于外资都是活雷锋，大头利润都留在中国。这绝对不可能，要是中国朝着这个方向管理，外资也跑了。

现在中国的应对方法是收进口环节税，增值税收不着，你高价进口总得交出一部分钱来，所以还能收上一些税来。这几年进出口急剧增长，进口环节税2004年有3700亿元，很不少了。再加上外企解决就业，对中国经济还是有贡献的。说外企转移利润有多大危害，几千亿美元外逃不得了，那个就事论事具体数字是多少可以论。但是肯定不能拿来当崩溃论的证据，这就有点象大跃进“饿死三千万”的论证中，把根本没出生的婴儿也当成死亡数字的一部分。可以说如果没有大跃进饥荒，正常情况会有多少婴儿生出来，结果这些人没生出来，却不能说这些没生出来的婴儿是非正常死亡。这里绝不是说外企转移利润不要重视，肯定是要重视的，但不是那么致命的事。

这样一大块的外逃数额就下去了。剩下的“传统”外逃数额也不少，仍是好几千亿美元。这些里面还有花头。

有相当多的专业文章分析了中国的资本外逃与FDI直接正相关，因为是内资要装成外资捞政策优惠，要“迂回投资”。一些专业文章用数据处理方法从数据上证明了这一点，也与实际情形相符。这个现象是中国独有的，发展中国家不常见。这些资本逃到香港或者开曼群岛去，转头还是回来，国家受的损失并不是表面那么大。的确是跑到境外去了，但其实很可能是些假洋鬼子或者假香港人，他的主要经济活动还是在中国大陆，贡献的税收也主要是在大陆。如果国家情势不利了，这些人可能真的会跑，但是如果大局好，他们一般不会主动跑掉去把局势搞坏。所以从防备崩溃论的角度来说，就算不是可以团结的力量，也不能算是敌对势力。专业人士分析说这类外逃可能占了FDI的20%以上。

再有就是国内企业与居民的一窝蜂了。98年那阵子，都怕人民币要贬值，结果各种人想办法换外币，还套汇，黑市美元价高到9以上。其实他们拿了外币并一定是要逃走，中国虽然管制不象从前那么严了，也不是那么好逃的，比一般发展中国家还是严多了。他们就是拿着美元心里舒服。后来2003年又说要升值了，又一窝蜂跑到银行去结汇换人民币，搞得外汇储备急剧增长。我倾向于认为，这些人的行为倒致中国的外汇储备增长曲线“前低后高”，本来是比较直的，结果搞成了严重歪曲的曲线。但也不可以说到“资本外逃”这么严重去，虽然统计在外逃数据里，但实际上仍然是在国内，还存到银行里了。

真正影响国家稳定罪大恶极的，是腐败官员连人带钱外逃到了境外，或者把资产转移到国外亲人那里。这就是真跑了，除了被抓，一般也不会回来了。这部分是多少，从绝对数字上来看，可能2000亿人民币左右（也是瞎估的），不少了。但是比起学术界讨论的那好几千亿美元，肯定是少多了。由于中国经济十分庞大，外逃个千把亿从纯经济意义来说，由于绵延多年，其实不影响大局，只是对人心的影响很坏。

总的来看，由于中国不可以自由兑换，资本市场不开放，经济发展又有一些独特之处，危害性很大的外逃实际上不如其它发展中国家多。大头的外逃一般事出有因，倒不是对整个国家丧失了信心，是一种趋利行为，可以因势利导。对绝对数额看起来很夸张的资本外逃数据，知道其来龙去脉之后，不必紧张。

知道了这些背景知识以后，我们也可以更深地理解中国政府的货币政策。98年为什么不贬值？资本外逃就是一个重要因素，贬值得话，国家铁定是亏了，拿人民币套汇的人得了便宜，会发展成什么样，不好控制。现在升值压力这么大，为什么不能升值？从本文来看，一个原因是，升值预期有助于减少外逃，就不必兑现这种预期了。