De-dollarization is irreversible, and the global currency "industry" has entered the Spring and Autumn and Warring States Period去美元化不可逆，全球货币“产业”进入春秋战国时代

De-dollarization is irreversible, and the global currency "industry" has entered the Spring and Autumn and Warring States Period

 If I want to ask, what is the largest industry in the world, it will be difficult for many people to answer it right away. This is not to say that there is no standard answer to this question, but that the answer may be hard for everyone to think of, and it is also difficult for everyone to understand it all at once. .

Among many industries, such as manufacturing, service industry, real estate, agriculture, energy industry, etc., are very large industries, but there is another industry that is bigger than this, namely: the currency "industry".

Assuming that the currency "industry" of a country is not the largest, problems will definitely occur, which means that almost all other industries in the country may face the risk of disordered production and demand, that is, the currency cannot be effectively valued for other industries, and the entire economy The pricing, incentives, and operating mechanisms of activities may fail, and the market will become unsustainable.

Of course, some people will say that in a country like the United States, the financial and derivatives market has a volume of over one trillion U.S. dollars, and the total amount of broad money in the United States is only more than 20 trillion U.S. dollars, and the currency "industry" is not the largest. .

Here, in fact, what we need to look at is not the simple and calculable "market value". Let me give you an example. For example, the total global debt capital market (DCM) transactions in 2022 totaled 8.3 trillion US dollars. Please note that this is the whole year. Do you know the foreign exchange market, that is, the currency "industry" market, what is the pure transaction volume? Last year, the average daily foreign exchange transaction volume was as high as 7 trillion US dollars.

Converting 7 trillion U.S. dollars into RMB, it is close to 50 trillion yuan. This is the daily transaction volume of the foreign exchange market. If we compare it again, if we add up the two largest stock markets in the world, China and the United States, the daily transaction volume is less than to $800 billion (average).

Another example is the real estate industry. Everyone thinks it is a very big industry. According to the current scale of China, including second-hand housing and new housing, the total annual transaction volume is about 25 trillion yuan. Then everyone knows that the inter-bank RMB What is the annual turnover? In 2022, the inter-bank money market turnover will total 1527 trillion yuan.

That is to say, large-scale market transactions such as real estate, in terms of proportion, are only about 1.6% of the transaction volume of the inter-bank money market (the inter-bank money market is only a part of the money market).

It is precisely because the currency "industry" has a daily transaction volume of more than trillions, or even tens of trillions of dollars, that it is guaranteed that it can denominate anything that can be traded in the world, and provide a stable "intermediary" for the transaction itself , which also includes financial markets with huge trading volumes.

Not to mention the trade in goods and other fields. Last year, when the total trade in goods between China and the United States hit a record high, it was only 690.6 billion US dollars (one year), which is comparable to the 7 trillion US dollars in the foreign exchange market. than, negligible.

In many cases, what we are most likely to overlook is precisely the largest thing, just like we are naturally talking about manufacturing, real estate, etc., but we don’t specifically discuss the currency “industry” because the currency industry So big, so ubiquitous, that we all see it as something like air, it becomes natural, default, and not specifically discussed anymore.

But the problem is, if one day the air is affected, we have to worry about whether it will harm our body every time we take a breath of air. At this time, you will find that once the air is affected, we will not be able to breathe. There is nowhere to hide.

This is like saying that for any country, when the United States wants to use the US dollar system to impose sanctions, many of the core industrial competitiveness created by this country actually do not have much resistance.

Whether you are selling chips or oil, there is a high probability that under the sanctions of the United States, its exports will drop to freezing point in an instant. This was the case with oil exports such as Iran in the past, and it is also the case with semiconductor exports such as Japan and South Korea.

Will this situation change in the future? What is the significance of discussing this issue in reality? Just to complain about the existence of the dollar?

Really not, in fact, we should try our best to see some development trends that go beyond the current facts, otherwise many questions will never be answered, and it will be impossible to understand the underlying changes that the world is facing.

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In the past, when various industries in the United States accounted for an absolute proportion of the world, it was actually difficult to discuss the issue of the dollar, and the United States did not need to use the dollar to game its opponents at every turn. Because a simple trade policy, or a little bit of foreign aid or pressure, can achieve various goals, and there is no need to use dollar tools at all.

Today, the United States contributes to global trade, its ability to aid countries around the world, its contribution to human economic growth, its room for maneuver in solving inflation and industrial problems, its ability to export world peace, and its direct military The arbitrariness of strikes, deterrence, etc., has all seen a historic reversal.

It turns out how good the United States is. Let me give you a few examples. For example, for Latin American countries (the United States regards Latin American countries as its own backyard), the United States can directly drive its warships to make some regions of Latin American countries independent. If you don’t believe it You can go and see Panama's independence process.

In response to industrial competition from developed countries (allies), the United States can directly intimidate them through trade negotiations and international "enforcement" to make them lose their competitiveness. Many industries in many developed countries, including Japan, Germany, and France, have encountered this situation. There are too many examples of such blows, so I won't list them one by one.

For countries such as Southeast Asia (the United States believes that the industries of these countries have been transferred by the United States), an Asian financial turmoil can bring some countries to zero for decades of development and accumulation, and in turn, criticize these countries and regions , do not abide by the rules of the free market, have no ability to manage their own finances and currencies, and flies do not bite seamless eggs.

History has developed to this day, and the logic that the United States can split a country by sending an aircraft carrier, or that a country's industry can be wiped out through a single negotiation and intimidation, no longer exists.

In the same way, the United States does not want to overdraw the dollar tool, and by suddenly making many marketable inventions and creations, earning excess profits of sufficient scale around the world to solve domestic problems and maintain the historical advantage of the United States' competitiveness is gone.

Against this background, the US dollar has become the only realistic tool choice for the United States, whether it is to solve the problem of development internally or to solve the problem of competition and gaming externally.

This is like saying that for the United States, the US dollar was only a tool for providing services to the world and collecting "seigniorage", that is, a tool for "making money", but the current US dollar has gradually changed for the United States. For, a tool for robbing and "killing" the world.

This is the fundamental reason why many countries now choose to gradually abandon the U.S. dollar, knowing that abandoning the U.S. dollar is risky, will bring great trade difficulties, and even face huge chaotic shocks.

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Of course, many people will also say that although the U.S. dollar is not the best world currency, everyone has no other choice besides the U.S. dollar. In other words, if you choose other currencies, the situation may be worse.

Please note that if we study history a little bit, you will find such a rule, that is, when the underlying demand for "dynasty change" arises, no one will know exactly what the next dynasty will look like, but everyone is sure One point, it is imperative to replace the existing "dynasties" first.

In other words, based on the dollar dynasty, it is indeed difficult for us to say that there is any new currency that can replace it, but everyone is very clear that the dollar dynasty is no longer in line with the existing era.

Because at this stage, we have far underestimated the historical changes in the global underlying needs, and ignored the awareness of the "price" that many countries have gradually clarified and prepared for the changes in the course of world history. .

That is to say, everyone clearly knows the challenges and risks of abandoning the dollar dynasty, as well as the chaos and pain to experience, but as long as they can find an opportunity to replace the dollar, no country will voluntarily give up.

But I want to say a few more words here. When it comes to dynastic change, many people will be more sensitive. If they think this is talking about Chinese history, that is because everyone thinks too much.

In fact, we can also learn from the West. You see, when Westerners study problems, whether it is their own problems or other people’s problems, they always look for references from Western history, so that everyone thinks that Americans have inherited ancient Greece, ancient Rome, and all human wisdom in Mesopotamia, which were not his, have become his.

This makes Westerners always have the ability that everything in the world can be explained by Western history. All the best things in the world belong to the big system of the West. The Western view of right and wrong is the whole human being The concept of right and wrong, and even the Mesopotamian civilization, Egyptian civilization, etc., have all been attributed to the West.

This leads to a problem. The West represents the entire human race. The past, present and future of the world all belong to the repetition or evolution of Western history, while other parts of the world are just subordinate, meaning dispensable, so we can only follow Looking for ways to explain today's more complex and diverse world in Western history, what the West says the future will look like is what it will look like.

Therefore, we can also learn to use Chinese history to explain the current world. This is not a simple logic of cultural self-confidence or historical self-confidence, but that we do have the history and experience to explain current world problems. In many cases, we use When our history is used to explain the current world, the reference value of the case is higher, and even many problems become very clear and clear at a glance.

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Regarding the transformation of the dollar dynasty, today we will use a classic case in Chinese history to talk about the fundamental driving force of this change.

China has a very important historical dynasty called the Zhou Dynasty. This dynasty is very legendary. It not only implemented enfeoffment (similar to the Western city-state system and confederal system), but also had absolute authority for the Emperor Zhou. This structure lasted for nearly 800 years. years, far exceeding the Habsburg dynasty, which lasted the longest in Western history, and more than a thousand years earlier than the Habsburg dynasty.

How can the authority of the Emperor Zhou be guaranteed? Simply put, in addition to the output and influence of ritual and music culture, it is the regional production, trade and other strengths under the direct jurisdiction of the Emperor Zhou, as well as the troops that can be mobilized and called upon directly. A coalition that is guaranteed to repel at least half of the other princes.

From the perspective of reality comparison, this is also an implicit logic why the military expenditure of the United States, which regards the whole world as its own "enfeoffment", always accounts for half of the world. It means that at least in terms of investment, you must unite the whole world, and I am not afraid.

However, with the continuous development of each vassal state, and the adoption of various systems, strategies, etc., the development of the vassal states is not synchronized. The level of ritual and music alone is not enough to maintain the problems caused by unbalanced development. This led to unstoppable alliances, mergers, etc., and the strength of some vassal states grew very fast, so they entered the Spring and Autumn Period, and the Spring and Autumn Five Hegemons were born (this tyrant is a neutral term, not a derogatory term).

And even at this time, these regional powers have not said that they want to replace the Zhou Dynasty. They have to continue to toss and grow based on their own development and the need for continuous self-protection.

Later, the strength of the area under the jurisdiction of Zhou Tianzi further declined, and the trade and other ties between the vassal states and the areas directly under Zhou Tianzi became weaker and weaker. Everyone even forgot that there was still a Zhou Tianzi, because everyone felt that they needed to obtain the same strength as their own. considerable status. This started the Warring States Period.

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In today's world, the development is very fast, and the evolution is also very fast, so the Spring and Autumn and Warring States era, from the dollar dynasty to the currency world, has also arrived.

In fact, with the birth of the euro, that is, European countries united to unify their currency, the rise of Chinese trade, and the gradual formation of alliances led by peaceful needs in various regions, this led to the fundamental emergence of a completely single dominant system of the dollar. Changes in the underlying supporting factors.

This is like saying that if the Zhou Dynasty is still the 108 fragmented enfeoffment countries at the beginning, and the Zhou Tianzi's jurisdiction occupies all the advantages at all levels, then this structure is stable. The problem is that in the end it will become the Spring and Autumn Five Hegemons and the At the time of the Seven Heroes of the Warring States Period, Zhou Tianzi had lost influence at all levels, and even the export of ritual and music culture was replaced by the contention of a hundred schools of thought in Linzi, Qi State.

Similar to the Spring and Autumn and Warring States Periods, for the U.S. dollar, the emperor of the week, whether it includes the euro, the British pound, the Japanese yen, etc., in fact, they have not said that they want to replace the U.S. dollar, but only want to obtain basically the same economic and trade status as their own. The monetary "industry" share of .

In other words, the decline of dollar hegemony does not mean that a currency that can replace the dollar will appear immediately, or that a more advanced currency mechanism will be born. The real reason for the decline of the dollar is that everyone begins to have absolute needs and opportunities to regain Belonging to its own monetary "industry" sovereignty.

This is like saying that the decline of the authority of Zhou Tianzi does not mean that there will immediately be a co-lord who can replace the authority of Zhou Tianzi, but that the first thing the princes want is "independence" at all levels.

At this time, everyone clearly knows that there will be wars, attacks, and much more pain than before, but no one will stop and return to the original order. This is why the great thinkers of the Spring and Autumn Period, Confucius who took revival of the Zhou Rites as his mission, such influential figures and penetrating thoughts, made such great efforts, and possessed such great compassion, ended up I can only lament the reason why the rites are broken and the music is broken, and there is no way for any vassal state to return to the order system of the Zhou Dynasty.

Back to reality, what does this mean? It means that although many people will say that once the US dollar system collapses, the world will be more chaotic, which may be worse than the era dominated by the US dollar, but the power of such rhetoric and its ideas is not enough Maintain the order and legitimacy of the dollar dynasty. My personal judgment is that, based on the US dollar, the world currency "industry" has entered the Spring and Autumn and Warring States period, which is an irreversible historical process.

From the perspective of regional evolution, the European Union, ASEAN, and African Union have emerged. Brazil recently announced its return to the Union of South American Nations. At the same time, the Argentine government formally proposed to rejoin the Union of South American Nations. This has led to the fact that the United States is not facing a single fragmented country at the level of the currency "industry", but more and more large-scale "alliances".

When these alliances gradually achieve the coordination of the economic and trade industries, they will move towards the coordination of finance and currency. The "independent" demand for the currency "industry" is already on the way, although this process is very slow.

It is worth emphasizing why the authority of Zhou Tianzi was very strong when he first started. The most important thing is that Zhou Tianzi faced 108 vassal states that were single, divided by himself, and much smaller than himself. By the time he entered the Spring and Autumn and Warring States period, Zhou Tianzi was already facing a national system such as the Five Hegemons of the Spring and Autumn Period and the Seven Heroes of the Warring States Period, which were about the same size as him, or even much larger than his own size.

In addition to the alliance of all continents, there are also separate major power systems such as China, India, Russia, etc., and no economy will voluntarily give up its own currency "industry" (external).

Therefore, there is only one way to change the evolution direction of this big history, which is to make the world more fragmented, to split large countries, to make it impossible for small countries to unite, to hostile and attack each other for a long time, and to maintain more lasting fragments In this way, the authority of the dollar dynasty can be guaranteed.

But the problem is that emerging peace forces are rising (although the United States and others don’t see it that way), and even countries like Saudi Arabia and Iran that have been hostile to each other for many years can also reconcile. The African Union, the Union of Latin America, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, etc., actually already have the consensus conditions to be able to act in unison.

Although the United States has spared no effort in undermining various alliances around the world, its intentions and methods are no longer concealed, that is, their legitimacy is getting less and less, and everyone is beginning to understand and feel resistance.

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Of course, if we only say that the dollar dynasty has entered the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period, it is just an explanation of the existing trend, and it cannot help everyone better understand the problem of the dollar, and it is also difficult to understand some inner laws of the currency.

Although these issues are huge enough, based on the objective law of the replacement of the US dollar and the competitive nature of the future currency "industry", we can discuss them, that is, from the macro level to the micro level, there are traces. follow.

There are three main global functions of the US dollar, the first is trade settlement; the second is reserve assets; the third is pricing power.

Among these three functions, the least easily replaced is the pricing power. As for the issue of trade settlement, as the US’s dominance in global trade weakens, everyone’s trade settlement will inevitably move towards de-dollarization (although very slowly), and once the trade settlement is involved, the demand for US dollars will be greatly reduced. The US dollar's reserve asset function also disintegrated.

Specifically, we can look at the most basic and explicit data that maintains the international currency "industry". The total foreign trade volume of these three countries, the Netherlands and France, exceeds that of the United States; the current total foreign trade volume of ASEAN is also comparable to the total foreign trade volume of the United States.

In this context, the US currency "industry" still accounts for more than 60% of the demand for the entire foreign trade currency "industry". This irrationality needs continuous correction.

The trade between the United States and Africa has been developing for more than two hundred years. Up to now, the total trade volume between the United States and Africa has remained at the level of 60 billion U.S. dollars, while the total trade volume between China and Africa has exceeded 250 billion U.S. dollars. more than 4 times the total amount. If you insist on saying that the US-Africa trade volume of 60 billion US dollars has contributed more to Africa, then there is no way to talk about it, because it denies the interpretation of "business is the greatest public good" defined by the West. system.

Here, everyone needs to understand a logic, that is, the main reason why countries reserve US dollar assets is that the US dollar can be used for world trade (payment). If the world trade does not require US dollar settlement, then the reserve asset function of the US dollar will naturally disappear. up.

As for functions such as value storage, it is actually based on the acceptance of the use level, which is also tied to trade settlement. If a currency cannot buy (including payment and liquidation) more things, then it loses its store value. This is why gold is particularly inconvenient to use, but it is still the world's reserve asset. The reason is that gold has acceptance beyond any country, sovereignty, religion, etc. system.

Therefore, among the existing data, the proportion of US dollars in international reserve assets is actually of little significance. Now the main underlying change is that people start to use non-US currencies for settlement. A breakthrough will be made at the level, and the decline of the reserve function of the US dollar will be a matter of course.

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In fact, I would like to talk more about the third world function of the US dollar, which is pricing power.

What is pricing power is actually the function of discovering prices of commodities.

We are no longer the era of bartering. At this time, the question of how much a commodity or service is worth is very complicated. If anyone can price a commodity more accurately, then this kind of competitiveness is far from Far beyond simply acting as a settlement currency.

This is like saying that we often buy and sell oil, which may be settled in RMB or Euro, but we need to calculate it according to the oil price in New York or London in US dollars, which means that the pricing power of the US dollar still exists.

So how to solve this problem?

This brings us to financial markets, the markets where almost all prices are initially generated and discovered. Of course, it needs to be emphasized here that the financial market I am talking about here is not aimed at sacrificing the real economy, just like the development of financial and currency markets in the United Kingdom and the United States and their impact on the world did not aim at sacrificing their industrial capabilities.

In reality, how much an apple sells for, many people think that it has something to do with the production cost and production volume of an apple, and many people think that it has something to do with everyone's demand. In fact, these are not the problems of studying prices under the modern economic system. true logic.

The most fundamental impact of the price of apples is the feedback of information by all participants. Regardless of whether it is a producer, a seller, or a consumer, if they obtain different information, they may make different decisions, thereby changing the price.

For example, when a producer knows that another place that produces apples has suffered from pests and diseases, then this producer will soon raise the price because he knows that it is scarce. The same is true for the seller. If he knows that there are several stores selling apples and none of the apples are sold, he will raise the price himself.

For a consumer, if he suddenly sees a message saying that an expert has discovered a new use for apples, and eating apples can cure any disease, the demand for apples will suddenly increase, which will also affect the market price.

So you will find that what affects the price of apples is actually mainly the feedback on various information.

At this point, everyone should understand that where the feedback of information is the most timely and comprehensive, the price set by this place will be the most accurate and effective. In fact, this place is the financial market.

It is impossible for any participant in the physical market to respond to information earlier than the financial market. The reason is that the financial market itself trades information, not the product itself. The quickest response must be the financial market.

In other words, if there is no financial market, our pricing and trading of products are actually not much different from primitive society, or from the farming era.

This is why the pricing in the financial market ultimately determines the pricing in the physical market, because the amount of information in the pricing of the financial market is much higher than that in the physical market. This is like saying that when a decision maker has more information than another When it is dozens of times, then the decision maker who has the most information must make a decision that is better than other decision makers.

So, according to my personal blind prediction, it is not a difficult thing to replace the US dollar at the level of trade settlement and other aspects that everyone is discussing now, but it is predictable and happening. What the world really wants to strive for strategically is actually the financial pricing power of the US dollar.

At this time, the challenges will multiply. For many countries, there is a big gap in the understanding and management of financial transactions. It can even be said that we would rather not have financial markets than allow them to create uncertainty.

This has caused the United States to intentionally or unintentionally magnify the fear of financial markets in countries around the world. Even countries that want to develop financial markets will not dare to develop after thinking about various crises caused by financial problems, and it is difficult to use more normal The mind develops.

Of course, the financial market is indeed a higher-dimensional market, and within a certain stage of development, it is really impossible to control it. But when the industry, per capita living standard, talent pool, international trade and exchanges, etc. develop to a certain level, the financial market will develop well, and the monetary "industry" dividends will be huge, because you can not only provide It is a tool for trading and settlement, and you can discover and influence the price at the earliest. You must know that the flow of almost all resources is affected by the price.

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Is this question temporarily unsolvable? In fact, it is not.

If we disassemble the price discovery function of financial transactions, there are three very important points. The first is the trading venue and trading varieties; the second is the degree of market participation; the third is the trading time.

If we take China as an example, there are already many futures, financial and other trading venues, and the types of trading products are also very wide. The next thing to look at is mainly a matter of engagement and transaction time.

In terms of participation, with the continuous expansion of the trade system and the increasing demand for the external use of RMB, it will in turn promote the participation of overseas markets in the Chinese trading market. This is also a trend at present.

Let me focus on the issue of trading hours, which may require great attention. If you look at markets such as London and New York, it is rare for a holiday to suspend trading for more than two or three days. Many very important holidays only suspend a day or half a day. In our current situation, as long as there is a holiday, many times we will not trade for a week.

I said this just in time for May Day, but it is indeed a coincidence, and I didn't mean to say it on purpose. Here, it should be noted that if we create an international pricing market, a long-term suspension of transactions will easily weaken its price discovery function, because the international market will not stop the flow of goods or funds because of our holidays. For transactions, if we do not have transactions and pricing in the financial market for a long time, then markets such as trade will switch to the prices of other trading venues. Over time, it will cause a lot of incoherence, thereby weakening the pricing power.

If you look at it, the technological development of the entire settlement market is developing in an uninterrupted direction. This is also an irreversible trend. In the era of banknotes and bank counters, if the banks were closed, everyone would not be able to settle. Later, with online banking, as long as the bank clearing time is staggered for a few hours a day, you can transfer and settle accounts, etc., and now the official digital currency has become a 24-hour uninterrupted transaction settlement service, which is for the effective pricing of the currency Ability is very important.

That is, whoever can provide all-weather, uninterrupted trading and pricing functions on a larger scale will have the strongest price discovery ability.

Of course, I am not saying that everyone does not need to take vacations, but that we need to build an uninterrupted international pricing and trading system based on future needs and evolution trends. Let me give you an example and everyone will understand. For example, during the holiday, if trains and planes are grounded, everyone will definitely not accept it, but why the pricing trading market has been suspended for a long time, everyone can accept it. The reason is that we have not set pricing trading. This kind of demand has risen to a very important level, and many times it cannot be connected with everyone's very real and immediate needs, so I think it is no big deal to pause.

There may be a technical solution to this problem in the future, and it needs to be considered and advanced on a more secure premise. I specifically highlight this problem here because the problem itself is in the process of replacing the pricing power of the US dollar. The most difficult stage, that is, the last stage that can be completed.

This is like saying that the United States surpassed the United Kingdom in the fields of industry and technology very early on, and completed the transfer of industry and technology from the European continent to the United States. However, until today, the pricing transactions in many fields in the global market are still in the London market. That is to say, the transfer at the level of financial currency is slow, and it needs a stronger force to support it.

Just like in the automobile industry, we have achieved breakthroughs based on technologies such as new energy and batteries. In fact, in the monetary and financial "industry", technology is even more needed, otherwise the process will be even slower.

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In addition to the above, how can we find the key points that define the future world currency market through the deduction of the alternatives of the past and current US dollar markets? Is it just to wait for technological upgrades and changes?

Of course not. Regarding the future currency, I can give you some personal thoughts for your reference.

The era of precious metals serving as world currencies has indeed passed. In the future, if the global currency market is in chaos due to the withdrawal of the US dollar, it is like what I said in the Spring and Autumn and Warring States Periods. Precious metals may have a certain currency function supplement, but It is difficult to really find the universal function of precious metals in world currencies from the perspective of trading currencies.

Therefore, in the future of currency, one must consider a certain core competitiveness of the provider, which is an inevitable consideration for the "industrialization" of currency. The other is the most basic hard technology that currency needs to have, such as breaking the restrictions of transaction time, trading scenarios, trading tools, etc. Digital currency technology is definitely the most basic hard indicator.

Then do you think that a decentralized currency like Bitcoin, which is completely "endorsed" by technology, can be satisfied? In fact, it is difficult to satisfy, because the global economy is no longer the stable production of the farming era. The global economy The operation of the system has become very complicated, and this complexity requires more complex management and "judgment" capabilities to combat and satisfy this complexity at the operational level.

Bitcoin is a quantitative, more transparent and calculable monetary system than gold, but it is too simple and cannot meet the needs of future global economic operations. Of course, the exploration of Bitcoin is actually an exploration of future currency operation technology, not an exploration of currency itself.

In fact, the technical level is really not complicated to understand. One of the points I mentioned below may be very important for the core endorsement resources of the future currency. This is to explain what the most fundamental driving end factors of the future currency are.

This is about the origin of currency. We usually think that the origin of currency is based on exchange, but exchange is actually full of uncertainties. Under such uncertainties, no one will have such primitive resources. Very proactively, to create a medium for exchange, and then convince everyone that this medium can act as an intermediary of exchange.

This means that the origin of currency is after the concept of the country, because only the organization of the country has sufficient resources and capabilities to unify the medium of exchange (mandatory). On the contrary, the origin of currency is much earlier than the concept of country, which makes us have to find the origin of currency again.

I am not denying the concept of the origin of money here, but the concept we have come into contact with in the past is too general. According to some current archeology and research, the origin of currency is actually based on "borrowing", a very specific human activity.

For example, in ancient times, there were many craftsmen, such as blacksmiths, pot burners, etc. They would borrow some daily necessities from farmers, textiles, etc., and when they repaid, they would become some iron utensils processed by themselves. This completes a "loan" and "repayment", but in a strict sense, it is not a simple barter, and it is difficult for you to figure out who plays the role in such a process. The role of "intermediary", because this "intermediary" is not a specific thing at all, but the "credit" that exists when the loan occurs.

What does this mean? The currency that the world needs in the future is not just settlement at the trade level, reserve currency, pricing currency, currency supported by advanced technology, etc. More importantly, this currency must have the ability to create additional "borrowing ", that is, the ability to continue to expand "credit". Otherwise, it will be impossible to cope with a more complex future economy.

The reason why the U.S. dollar became the international currency after World War II is not only because it is linked to gold, but other currencies are forcibly linked to the U.S. dollar. "Stock, so the United States easily promoted the Marshall Plan to Europe, established the World Monetary Fund, the World Bank, etc., and expanded credit to many places around the world.

At this point, everyone should understand why the United States always accuses China of engaging in "debt traps" and the like. It is because the United States is very clear that credit itself is a special "ability". If China's special external ability is not weakened, the dollar itself will be weakened.

The reason why the United States is not capable of doing what it did after World War II is that the United States is already a twin, and has no ability to create a "credit" surplus.

Of course, on the surface, the U.S. can print U.S. dollars by itself, but in fact, the more U.S. dollars are issued to the outside world, the more difficult it is for the U.S. to control the circulation of U.S. dollars, because when U.S. dollars are sent out, countries all go to buy Chinese goods, and then China To buy raw materials from these countries, once the U.S. dollars are sent out, unless the U.S. makes self-destructive recycling (forcibly raising interest rates, etc.), it will lose its credit benefits. This is not the same as the era after World War II when US dollars were distributed to the world to buy the powerful production capacity of the United States, attract the flow of global resources, and stimulate the development of American industries and various technologies.

Based on this, we can find another important "signature" of future currency, that is, countries that can continue to own and export "credit" in the future can better play the role of world currency. I have also been talking about a problem before, that is, we can actually lend RMB to major trading partners (at a certain interest rate or collateral, engineering, trade mutual benefit requirements, etc.).

Here, I want to explain a problem. If it is simple, in order to help export companies, then directly send money to export (manufacturing) companies, and then export companies directly ship goods abroad. Foreign countries, and then let them come to buy Chinese things again, this does not mean that they did nothing.

In fact, the management of the economy and currency is extremely complicated. You can only be competitive if you let each country and each person make their own decisions, the cycle it creates, and the industries and technologies it stimulates.

Therefore, only when the credit is released to specific countries and individuals, when these countries and individuals take money (interest) with a certain cost to make decisions, will they "choose and choose" and make many demands Only then will I consider whether I need this thing, whether it is worth the money, how cost-effective this thing is, etc. At this time, the Chinese companies and products that are stimulated are competitive.

Of course, this kind of borrowing does not mean that there is too much money and there is nowhere to go, and we have to spread the money, but that China has this foundation of credit and historical conditions to plan the possible cycle of future world currency operations.

China is now the largest trading partner of most countries in the world. That is to say, once these countries hold RMB, they will not be unable to use it. They will definitely strengthen various circulations with China, and the international credit system of RMB was born. , if enough modern technology is added, the "origin" of the future currency will take shape.

Nine

Finally, make a simple summary.

It is precisely because the U.S. dollar has made a huge contribution to the development of the world economy, so there is such a big controversy about the irreversible de-dollarization today. The global trading system stimulated by the world currency was eventually "replaced" because of the degradation of a series of management and practical capabilities of the world currency provider.

Let me briefly talk about the stimulation of global trade by world currencies in the first two times.

They are respectively, during the period from the 16th century to the 18th century, Spain controlled American silver, which led to global trade triggered by a surge in silver supply; the other is that from the end of the 18th century to the beginning of the 20th century, the British controlled the high-yield gold mines in South Africa. , the supply of gold increased rapidly, which stimulated global trade.

More than 400 years ago, Spain discovered silver mines in the Americas, and the global silver supply achieved a subversive leap. In just a few decades, the global silver supply increased dozens of times. The Spaniards used this silver to start Crazy buying of various commodities from all over the world, including Chinese tea, silk, porcelain, etc. These luxury goods created by China are continuously pouring into Europe, while silver from the Americas is continuously pouring in through the Philippines and other transit stations. into China. At that time, Southeast Asia was already the center of world trade.

The Spaniards used the silver in the Americas to purchase not only from China, but also a large amount of textiles from the UK next door (the bottom demand of the industrial revolution broke out), and various services from the Netherlands, etc., which also stimulated global routes, and the UK’s Industry, shipping business, finance and other developments in the Netherlands.

At the end of the 18th century, the British discovered a rare gold mine in the world during the colonization of South Africa. How rich is this gold mine? Half a century ago, this gold mine could produce 1,000 tons of gold a year. What is the concept? Now China, the largest gold-producing country, produces less than 400 tons of gold a year.

That is to say, since the UK controlled the gold mines in South Africa, the British pound backed by gold was more sought after, and thanks to the continuity of the silver trade division started by Spain (Spain purchased industrial products from the UK), the British industry was stimulated. If it is already competitive enough, the pound has two endorsement resources, one is sufficient gold from South Africa, and the other is its own industrial products.

So the Spaniards only knew how to buy and buy, but did not establish their own manufacturing and financial currency management system. They could no longer compete with Britain in the later period. The global trade dominated by the gold pound began to take shape. This global trade system lasted until the end of World War II. The United Kingdom has changed from a creditor country to a debtor country, its industrial capacity has been completely replaced by the United States, the ability of the pound to export credit has quickly disappeared, and the international currency status of the pound has fallen, and it is officially over.

Here, what is worthy of attention is whether it is the global trade initiated by Spain based on American silver, the global trade initiated by the United Kingdom based on South African gold, or the US dollar global trade initiated by the United States based on its strong industry and the resources of the victorious countries. Both staged and rapidly stimulated global trade and economic growth.

But an unavoidable reality is that whether it is the world chaos after the Spanish silver trade (Spain, the Netherlands, Britain, France, etc. at sea), or the World War I and World War II after the British gold pound trade, it actually needs to go through a transition period of confusion and "labor pains".

Today's post-dollar era is also facing such a crisis, and what is worth looking forward to is that whenever a resource such as currency that drives and stimulates global trade and economic growth is facing exhaustion, various "labor pains" will just brew. It is also irreversible to create new resources such as currencies that stimulate and stimulate global trade and economic growth.

So don’t worry about the world after the U.S. dollar, just like people in the past did not stay in the era of Spain and the United Kingdom. The future world currency will definitely be several times stronger than the U.S. dollar in terms of stimulating global trade and economic growth, and we What needs to be vigilant is how to use stronger power to ensure that it can go through this "labor pain" period more peacefully and with greater certainty, without causing the world to pay a greater price.

去美元化不可逆，全球货币“产业”进入春秋战国时代

如果我要问，这个世界上，最大的产业是什么，很多人肯定很难一下子回答准确，这并不是说这个问题没有标准答案，而是答案大家可能很难想到，也很难一下子理解。

在诸多产业当中，比如制造业、服务业、房地产、农业、能源产业等等，都属于非常大的产业，但还有比这更大的一个产业，即：货币“产业”。

假设一个国家的货币“产业”规模不是最大的，肯定会出问题，意味着这个国家的其他几乎所有产业，都可能面临生产和需求的紊乱风险，也就是货币无法给其他产业有效计价，整个经济活动的定价和激励、运行机制就可能失效，市场将变得不可持续。

当然，有人会说，类似美国这样的国家，金融和衍生品市场就有超百万亿美元的体量，美国广义货币总量只有二十多万亿美元，货币“产业”也不是最大的呀。

这里面，其实要看的不是简单的，可计算的“市值”，我举个例子，比如2022年全年全球债务资本市场(DCM)交易总计8.3万亿美元，请注意，这是全年，那大家知道外汇市场，也就是货币“产业”市场，单纯的交易额是多少吗？去年平均每日的外汇交易额，就已经高达7万亿美元。

7万亿美元换算成人民币，接近50万亿人民币，这是外汇市场一天的交易额，如果再做个对比，把中国和美国这两个全球最大的股票市场加起来，一天的交易额还不到8000亿美元（平均）。

再比如房地产行业，大家觉得是一个很大的行业了吧，按中国目前的规模，包括二手房和新房，全年总的交易额大概25万亿元的样子，那大家知道银行间的人民币一年成交额是多少吗？2022年，银行间货币市场成交共计1527万亿元。

也就是房地产这样大规模的市场交易，如果从占比来看，也只有银行间货币市场交易额的1.6%左右（银行间货币市场，仅仅是货币市场的一部分）。

正是因为货币“产业”自身拥有每日超过数万亿，甚至数十万亿美元的交易额，才保证了它可以计价任何世界上可以交易的东西，以及给交易本身提供稳定的“中介”，其中也包括交易量庞大的金融市场。

货物贸易等领域就更不用说了，去年中美货物贸易总额在创历史新高的情况下，也只有6906亿美元（一年），跟外汇市场一天内就能创造7万亿美元的交易额相比，微乎其微。

很多时候，我们最容易忽略的，恰恰是最庞大的东西，就像我们很自然的，在谈论制造业、房地产业等等，但并不会专门去讨论货币“产业”，原因是，货币产业太大了，无处不在，以至于我们都将其视为空气一样的东西，就变成了自然的，默认的东西，也就不再专门讨论了。

但问题是，如果有一天，空气受到了影响，我们每呼吸一口空气，都要担心其是否会对自己的身体产生伤害的时候，这个时候你就会发现，空气一旦受到影响，我们也就无处可躲。

这就好比说，随便一个国家，当美国要拿起美元系统来制裁的时候，这个国家创造的很多最核心的产业竞争力，实际上也是没有太多反抗能力的。

无论你是卖芯片的，还是卖石油的，很大的概率是，在美国的制裁下，其出口瞬间就会跌至冰点。过去伊朗等的石油出口如此，如今日本韩国等的半导体出口亦是如此。

那这种情况未来是否会发生改变呢？讨论这个问题，对现实又有什么意义呢？仅仅是要抱怨美元的存在吗？

真还不是，实际上我们要尽可能的看到一些超越当下事实的发展趋势，否则很多问题永远找不到答案，也就谈不上理解世界正在面临的底层变化了。

一

在过去，美国各个产业占全球绝对比重的时候，讨论美元的问题，实际上很难，美国也没必要动不动就拿美元来跟对手博弈。因为简单的一个贸易政策，或者一点点的对外援助或施压，就能达到各种目的，根本不需要动用美元工具。

而到了今天，美国对全球贸易的贡献度，对世界各国的援助能力，对人类经济增长的贡献度，对自己内部解决通胀和产业问题的回旋余地，对世界和平的输出能力，以及直接进行军事打击、威慑的随意性等等，都出现了历史性的逆转。

原来美国有多牛呢，我给大家举几个例子，比如针对拉美国家（美国视拉美国家为自己的后院），美国直接把军舰开过去，就可以让拉美国家的一些地区直接独立，不信的话大家可以去看看巴拿马的独立过程。

针对发达国家（盟友）的产业竞争，美国直接可以通过贸易谈判恐吓，以及国际“执法”，就可以使其丧失竞争力，包括日本、德国、法国等很多发达国家的诸多产业，都遭遇过这种打击，例子太多，我就不一一举例了。

对于东南亚等国家（美国认为这些国家的产业都是美国给转移过去的），搞一个亚洲金融风暴，就可以让一些国家几十年的发展和积累归零，反过来还要骂这些国家和地区，不遵守自由市场规则，没有能力管理自己的财政和货币，苍蝇不叮无缝的蛋。

历史发展到今天，美国派一艘航母，就可以让一个国家分裂，或者说通过一次谈判恐吓，就可以让一个国家的产业灰飞烟灭的逻辑，已经不存在了。

同样的，美国想不透支美元工具，靠突然搞出很多可以市场化的发明创造，赚取全球足够规模的超额利润，来解决国内问题，维护美国竞争力的历史优势，也没有了。

这种背景下，无论是对内解决发展的问题，还是对外解决竞争和博弈的问题，美元成了美国唯一的现实工具选择。

这就好比说，原来美元这个工具对美国来说，只是一个为全世界提供服务，收取“铸币税”的工具，也就是“赚钱”的工具，而现在的美元对于美国来说，已经逐步转变为，向全世界抢劫和“索命”的工具。

这也就是为啥现在有很多国家，明明知道放弃美元是有风险的，是会带来很大贸易难题的，甚至是要面临巨大混乱性冲击的，但依然选择逐步放弃美元的根本原因。

二

当然，很多人也会说，美元虽然不是最好的世界货币，可是大家除了美元，也没有其他选择，或者说，如果选择其他的货币，状况可能会更糟。

请注意，如果我们稍微研究一下历史，你就会发现这样一个规律，那就是当“改朝换代”的底层需求出现的时候，没有人会明确的知道，下一个朝代会是什么样子，但大家都确信一点，先把现有的这个“朝代”替换掉是当务之急。

也就是说，基于美元王朝，我们确实还很难说有什么新的货币可以替代，但大家都非常清楚，美元王朝已经不符合现有的时代。

因为在这一阶段内，我们远远低估了全球的底层需求发生的历史性改变，以及忽略了世界历史进程当中的，很多国家逐步明确和正在准备的，为改变而所要付出的“代价”意识。

也就是大家明明知道放弃美元王朝所面临的挑战和风险，以及要经历的混乱和痛苦，但只要能找到替代美元的机会，没有哪个国家会主动放弃。

不过这里要多说两句，一提到改朝换代，很多人也会比较敏感，觉得这是不是在说中国历史，那是大家想多了。

我们其实也可以学学西方，你看西方人研究问题，不管是自己的问题，还是别人的问题，总要从西方的历史中去找参照物，以至于大家都觉得，美国人是继承了古希腊、古罗马，以及两河流域所有的人类智慧，本来不是他的东西，都变成他的了。

这就使得西方人总有一种能力，就是全世界所有的东西，都可以用西方的历史解释，全世界所有最好的东西，都是属于西方这个大系统的，西方的是非观，就是全人类的是非观，甚至两河文明、埃及文明等等，都归到了西方。

这就导致一个问题，西方就代表了整个人类，世界的过去、现在和未来，都属于西方历史的重复或演变，而其他世界各地就只是一个从属，意思是可有可无，于是只能从西方历史中寻找解释当今更加复杂、多元世界的方法，西方说未来是什么样子，就是什么样子。

所以说，我们也可以学着，用中国的历史，来解释当今世界，这不是简单的文化自信或历史自信的逻辑，而是我们确实拥有解释当下世界问题的历史和经验积累，很多时候，用我们的历史去解释当下的世界，案例的参考价值反而更高，甚至很多问题变得非常清晰、一目了然。

三

关于美元王朝正在发生的转变，今天我们就用中国历史上的一个经典案例，来说一说这种变化的根本性推动力。

中国有一个非常重要的历史朝代，叫周朝，这个朝代非常传奇，既实施了分封（类似于西方的城邦制、邦联制），同时周天子还有绝对的权威，这种结构持续了接近800年，远超西方历史上持续时间最长的哈布斯堡王朝，而且比哈布斯堡王朝早了一千多年。

那周天子这种权威，这是如何保证的呢，简单的说，除了礼乐文化等的输出和影响，就是周天子直接管辖的区域生产、贸易等实力，以及直接可以调动和号召的兵力，要保证能够击退其他至少一半的诸侯的联合。

从现实对比来看，这也就是为什么，美国这种把全世界都看成是自己“分封”的国家的军费开支，总是要占到世界一半的一个隐含逻辑。意思是说，至少要从投入方面，保证你们全世界都联合起来，我也不怕。

但随着各诸侯国各自不断的发展，以及采取的各种不同的制度、策略等等，就出现了诸侯国之间发展的不同步，仅仅礼乐层面，不足以维护发展失衡带来的问题，从而导致了难以阻挡的联合、兼并等的发生，一些诸侯国的实力增长就非常快，于是就进入到了春秋时代，诞生了春秋五霸（这个霸是中性词，并非贬义词）。

而就算到了这个时候，这些区域强国，都还没有说要替代周朝的意思，仅仅只是基于自身的发展，以及需要不断的自保，而不得不持续的折腾和壮大。

再到后来，周天子统辖区域实力进一步下降，各诸侯国跟周天子直接统辖地区的贸易等联系越来越弱，甚至大家都忘了还有个周天子，因为大家都觉得需要获得跟自己实力相当的地位。这就开启了战国时代。

四

当今世界，发展是非常快的，演化也非常快，所以从美元王朝，走向货币世界的春秋战国时代，也已经到来。

其实随着欧元的诞生，也就是欧洲国家联合起来统一货币，还有中国贸易的崛起，以及各区域以和平需求主导的联盟逐步形成，这就导致美元这个完全单一的主导体系，从根本上出现了底层支撑因素的改变。

这就好比说，如果周朝依然是刚开始的那108个碎片化的分封国家，周天子统辖区占据所有层面的所有优势，那么这个结构就是稳定的，问题是到最后变成春秋五霸和战国七雄的时候，周天子在各个层面都已经失去影响力了，就连礼乐文化等输出，也被齐国临淄繁荣的百家争鸣给取代了。

跟春秋战国时代类似，对于美元这个周天子来说，现在包括欧元也好，英镑、日元等也罢，其实都还没有说要去替代美元，而仅仅是要获得跟自己经济和贸易地位基本相同的货币“产业”份额。

也就是说，美元霸权的衰落，并不是就要立马出现一个可以替代美元的货币，或者说诞生一个更先进的货币机制，而美元真正衰落的原因是，大家开始有绝对的需求和机会，夺回属于自己的货币“产业”主权。

这就好比说，周天子权威的衰落，并不是说立马就出现了一个可以替代周天子权威的天下共主，而是各诸侯国首先要的是在各个层面的“独立”。

这个时候，大家明明知道，会有战乱，会有攻伐，会比以前痛苦很多，但没有人会停下来，回到原有的秩序。这就是为什么春秋时代的大思想家，以复兴周礼为己任的孔子等，如此有影响力的人物和思想穿透力，付出了如此之大的努力，拥有如此之大的悲悯之心，最终却只能感叹礼崩乐坏，也没有办法让任何一个诸侯国，重新回归到周朝的秩序体系的原因。

回到现实，这意味着什么呢，意味着尽管很多人会说，美元体系一旦崩溃，世界会更乱，比美元主导的时代可能还要差，但这种说辞和其思想的力量，不足以维系美元王朝的秩序及合法性。我个人的判断是，基于美元来说，世界货币“产业”，已经进入到了春秋战国时代，这是不可逆的历史进程。

从区域演进的角度，目前已经出现了欧盟、东盟、非盟，最近巴西宣布重返南美洲国家联盟，同时阿根廷政府正式提请重新加入南美洲国家联盟。这就导致美国在货币“产业”层面，所面对的，不是单一的碎片化国家，而是越来越多的大体量“联盟”。

当这些联盟逐步的，取得经济和贸易产业的协同之后，就会走向对财政和货币的协同，货币“产业”的“独立”需求已经走在路上，尽管这个进程十分缓慢。

值得强调的是，周天子刚开始的时候，为什么权威很强，其中很重要的是，周天子面对的，是单个的，由自己分封的，体量远比自己小很多的108个诸侯国，到进入春秋战国时代的时候，周天子面对的已经是春秋五霸、战国七雄这样的，跟自己体量差不多，甚至比自己体量还要大很多的国家体系了。

除了各大洲的联盟，还有中国、印度、俄罗斯等这样的单独的大国体系，没有哪个经济体会主动放弃自己的货币“产业”（对外）。

所以，要改变这种大历史演进方向的办法只有一个，就是让世界更加碎片化，让大体量国家分裂，让小国家聚集的地区无法联合，长期的互相敌视和攻伐，维持更持久的碎片化，这样就能保证美元王朝的权威。

但问题是，新兴的和平力量正在崛起（尽管美国等不这么看），就连沙特、伊朗这样的互相敌视多年的国家，也可以和解。非洲联盟、拉美联盟、东南亚联盟等等，实际上已经拥有了能够统一行动的共识条件。

尽管美国在破坏全球各类联盟方面，不遗余力，但其意图和手段，已经不再有隐蔽性，也就是合法性越来越少，大家也就开始看明白，并产生抵触情绪了。

五

当然，如果仅仅说美元王朝进入了春秋战国时代，那只是一个对既有趋势的解释，并不能帮助大家更好的理解美元的问题，也很难搞明白货币的一些内在运行规律。

这些问题虽然足够的庞大，但基于美元被替代的客观规律，以及未来货币“产业”竞争属性这两个点，我们是可以展开来讨论的，也就是从宏观到微观层面，都是有迹可循的。

美元最主要的世界性功能，有三个，第一个是贸易结算；第二个是储备资产；第三个是定价能力。

这三个功能里面，其实最不容易被替代的，是定价能力。而贸易结算问题，随着美国在全球贸易当中的主导性走弱，大家的贸易结算，势必会走向去美元化（尽管很慢），而一旦贸易结算里面，对美元的需求大幅度的减少，美元的储备资产功能，也就随之瓦解了。

具体来说，我们可以从最基本的，维系国际货币“产业”的显性数据来看，中国的外贸总额超过6万亿美元，高于美国的不到5万亿美元；欧盟里面，仅仅德国、荷兰、法国这三个国家的外贸总额，就超过美国的外贸总额；东盟目前的外贸总额也跟美国的外贸总额不相上下。

在这种背景下，美国的货币“产业”，依然占到整个外贸货币“产业”需求量的超过60%，这种不合理性，是需要持续修正的。

美国跟非洲的贸易，已经发展了两百多年了，到现在，美非贸易总额还停留在600亿美元这个水平上，而中国跟非洲的贸易总额，已经超过2500亿美元，是美非贸易总额的超过4倍。如果大家硬要说，美非这600亿美元的贸易额，对非洲的贡献更大，那就没法聊了，因为这就否定了西方自己所定义的“商业是最大的公益”这一解释体系。

这里面，大家需要理解一个逻辑，就是各国之所以储备美元资产，实际上主要的原因就是美元可以做世界贸易（支付），如果世界贸易不需要美元结算了，那美元的储备资产功能自然就消失了。

至于价值储藏等功能，实际上也是基于使用层面的接受度，这个跟贸易结算等也是绑在一起的。如果一个货币购买（包括支付和清算）不了更多东西，那么也就失去了储藏价值。这就是为什么黄金使用起来特别不方便，但依然是世界储备资产，原因就是黄金有超越任何国家、主权和宗教等等体系的接受度。

所以说，现有数据当中，国际储备资产，美元占比多少多少，这个数据实际上意义不大，现在主要发生底层变化的，是大家开始用非美货币结算，这个是很重要的，一旦这个层面取得突破，美元储备功能的下降将是顺其自然的事情。

六

我其实更想聊一聊关于美元的第三个世界功能，就是定价能力。

什么是定价能力，实际上就是对商品等价格的发现功能。

我们早已不再是以物易物的时代，这个时候，一个商品或服务等，值多少钱，这个问题是非常复杂的，如果谁能够比较准确的给一个商品定价，那么这种竞争力，远远超过单纯扮演结算货币。

这就好比说，我们很多时候买卖石油，可能是用人民币或欧元结算，但我们需要按照纽约或伦敦的美元石油价格来计算，这意味着美元的定价能力依然存在。

那如何解决这个问题呢？

这就要说到金融市场，也就是几乎所有价格的最初生成和发现市场。当然，这里需要强调一下，我这里说的金融市场，不是以牺牲实体经济为目标，就像英国和美国当年金融货币市场的发展和对世界的影响，并没有以牺牲其工业能力为目标一样。

在现实当中，一个苹果卖多少钱，很多人觉得跟一个苹果的生产成本和生产量等有关系，也有很多人觉得，跟大家的需求有关系，其实这些都不是现代经济体系下，研究价格问题的真正逻辑。

苹果价格最根本的影响是，所有参与者，对信息的反馈。不管是生产者，还是售卖者，还是消费者，如果获得了不同的信息，就可能会做出不同的决策，从而改变价格。

比如当一个生产者，知道另一个生产苹果的地方，遭遇了病虫害，那这个生产者，很快就会提高价格，因为他知道稀缺了。售卖者也是同样的道理，如果他知道有几个卖苹果的店，都没有苹果卖了的时候，自己也会提高价格。

对于消费者来说，如果他突然间看到一个信息，说有个专家发现了苹果新的用途，吃苹果可以治什么什么病，那对苹果的需求就会突然增多，也会影响市场价格。

所以你会发现，影响苹果价格的，实际上主要是对各类信息做出的反馈。

说到这里，大家应该明白了，什么地方对信息的反馈最及时和全面，这个地方定出来的价格就最准确、最有效，其实这个地方就是金融市场。

任何实体市场的参与者，其对信息的反馈，都不可能早于金融市场，原因是，金融市场本身交易的就是信息，而不是产品本身，所以信息的最早发现者，以及对信息做出最快反应的，一定是金融市场。

也就是说，如果没有金融市场，我们对产品的定价和交易等，实际上跟原始社会，或者说跟农耕时代是没有太大区别的。

这就是为什么金融市场的定价，最终决定了实体市场的定价的原因，因为金融市场的定价，信息量远远高于实体市场，这就好比说，当一个决策者，掌握的信息量是另一个的数十倍的时候，那么掌握信息量最大的这个决策者，所做出的决策，肯定是要优于其他决策者的。

所以说，按照我个人的瞎预测，现在大家讨论的，在贸易结算等层面替代美元，并不是一个很难的事情，反而是可预期的，正在发生的事情。而世界真正要战略性争取的，实际上是美元的金融性定价能力。

这个时候，其挑战就会成倍增加，对于很多国家来说，对金融交易的理解和管理，本身就存在很大的缺口。甚至可以说宁愿不要金融市场，也不能让其制造出不确定性。

这就使得美国有意无意的放大了全球各国对金融市场的恐惧，就算想要发展金融市场的国家，想想各种因金融问题导致的危机，就不敢发展了，也很难用更正常的思维去发展了。

当然，金融市场确实是一个更高维度的市场，在特定的发展阶段之内，确实没法驾驭。但等到产业、人均生活水平、人才储备、国际贸易和交往等等，发展到一定程度的时候，金融市场发展好了，所带来的货币“产业”红利，是巨大的，因为你不仅可以提供用来交易和结算的工具，而且你可以最早的发现和影响价格，要知道几乎所有资源的流动，都受到价格的影响。

七

那这个问题暂时是不是无解呢，其实也不是。

如果我们把金融交易的价格发现功能拆解开来看，有三点非常重要，第一个是交易场所和交易品种；第二个是市场参与度；第三个是交易时间。

如果拿我们中国来说，目前各类期货、金融等交易场所已经比较多了，交易产品的种类也非常广泛。接下来要看的主要是参与度和交易时间的问题。

参与度方面，随着贸易体系的不断壮大，以及人民币外部使用需求的增多，会反过来推动海外市场对中国交易市场的参与度，这个目前看也是一个趋势。

我重点说一下关于交易时间的问题，这个可能需要非常注意，如果你去看伦敦、纽约等市场，很少出现一个假期，超过两、三天暂停交易的情况，很多非常重要的假期，只暂停一天或半天。我们目前的话，只要是遇到假期，很多时候直接一周都不会交易。

说这个，正好赶上五一，但确实属于巧合，不是故意要说。这里面，需要注意的是，如果我们打造的是一个国际定价市场，长时间的暂停交易，就会很容易削弱其价格发现功能，因为国际市场不会因为我们的假期，而停止货物或资金的交易，这个时候如果我们长时间没有金融市场的交易和定价，那么贸易等市场，就会转到使用其他交易场所的价格，久而久之，就会造成很多不连贯性，从而削弱定价能力。

如果你去看，整个结算市场的技术发展，全部都是朝着不间断方向发展的，这也是不可逆的趋势，原来纸币和银行柜台时代，如果银行关门，大家就无法结算了。后来有了网银，只要错开每天几个小时的银行清算时间，都可以转账结算等，再到现在的官方数字货币，就变成了24小时不间断的交易结算服务，这对于争取货币的有效定价能力，是非常重要的。

也就是谁能够更大范围的提供全天候、不间断的交易和定价功能，谁的价格发现能力就是最强的。

当然，我不是说大家就不需要休假了，而是我们要基于未来的需求和演进趋势，去搭建不间断的国际性定价交易系统。我举个例子大家就明白了，比如假期里面，如果火车飞机等都停飞了，大家肯定接受不了，但为什么定价交易市场长时间暂停，大家可以接受呢，原因是，我们还没有把定价交易这种需求，上升到很重要的程度，很多时候无法跟每个人非常现实的即时需求联系起来，所以觉得暂停也没什么大不了的。

这个问题未来可能会有技术性的解决方案，也需要在更为稳妥的前提下来思考和推进，我这里专门拿出来强调这个问题，原因是这个问题本身就是在替代美元定价权的过程中，几乎是最难的阶段，也就是最后才可能去完成的阶段。

这就好比说，美国很早就在工业和技术等领域超越了英国，完成了工业和技术从欧洲大陆向美国的转移，但直到今天，全球市场很多领域的定价交易，依然在伦敦市场，也就是说，金融货币层面的转移，是缓慢的，也是需要更强大的力量来加持的。

就像我们在汽车产业里面，基于新能源和电池等技术完成的超越，实际上货币金融“产业”里面，更需要技术的加持，否则这一进程会更加缓慢。

八

那除了以上这些，对过去和当下的美元市场的可替代性推演，我们如何找到定义未来世界货币市场的关键点呢？仅仅是要等待技术的升级和变迁吗？

当然不是，对于未来货币，我可以给大家说一些个人层面的思考，供大家参考。

贵金属充当世界货币的时代确实已经过去了，未来如果全球货币市场，因为美元的退场，出现了一定的混乱，就是我说的类似春秋战国时代一样，可能贵金属会有一定的货币功能性补充，但很难真正从交易货币这个角度，去寻找贵金属的世界货币普遍功能。

所以说，未来的货币，一个是要考虑提供者的某种核心竞争力，这是货币“产业”化的必然考量。另一个是货币需要具备的最基本的硬性技术，比如打破交易时间、交易场景、交易工具等的限制，数字货币技术肯定是最基本的一个硬性指标。

那你说是不是类似比特币这种，完全由技术“背书”的，去中心化的货币，就可以满足呢，其实也很难满足，因为全球经济早已不是农耕时代的稳定性生产，全球经济的运行，已经变得非常复杂，这种复杂性，就需要更加复杂的管理和“裁决”能力，来对抗和满足这种运行层面的复杂。

而比特币是一个量化的，比黄金还要透明和可计算的货币体系，反而是过于简单了，根本无法满足未来的全球经济运行需求。当然，比特币的探索，实际上是一种对未来货币运行技术的探索，而不是对货币本身的探索。

其实技术层面确实理解起来并不复杂，我下面说的一个点，可能对未来货币的核心背书资源非常重要，这里面就是解释未来货币到底最根本的驱动末端因素是啥。

这就要说到货币的起源，我们通常认为，货币的起源，是基于交换，但交换实际上充满着不确定性，在这种不确定性之下，没有人会有这种原始的资源，非常主动的，去搞出一个用来交换的媒介，然后还要使得大家都相信，这个媒介就可以充当交换的中介。

这就意味着货币的起源是在国家这个概念之后，因为只有国家这种组织，才有足够的资源和能力去统一交换媒介（强制性）。而恰恰相反的是，货币的起源，远远早于国家这个概念，这就使得我们必须要重新寻找货币的起源问题。

我这里不是否定货币起源的概念，而是过去我们所接触的这个概念，过于笼统。按照目前一些考古和研究就表明，货币的起源，实际上是基于“借贷”，这个非常具体的人类活动。

比如古代也有很多手艺人，打铁的、烧瓦罐的等等，他们会向种地的，纺织的等等，借一些生活必需品，而偿还的时候，就变成了一些自己加工出来的铁器用具和瓦罐等，这就完成了一次“借贷”和“偿还”，但这从严格意义上来说，不是简单的以物易物，你也很难搞明白，在这样一个过程中，谁到底扮演着“中介”的角色，因为这个“中介”根本就不是具体的东西，而是因借贷发生时就存在的“信用”。

说这个什么意思呢，就是未来世界需要的货币，不仅仅是贸易层面的结算、储备货币、定价货币、先进技术加持的货币等，更重要的一点是，这个货币必须得拥有可以额外创造“借贷”，也就是持续扩张“信用”的能力。否则就无法应对更加复杂的未来经济。

美元之所以成为二战后的国际货币，不仅仅是因为跟黄金挂钩，其他货币强制跟美元挂钩等，更重要的是，同时期，美国有巨大的生产和贸易盈余，也就是有巨大的“信用”存量，于是美国很轻松的就推动了对欧洲的马歇尔计划，成立了世界货币基金组织、世界银行等等，对全球诸多地方，进行了信用扩张。

说到这里，大家应该明白了，为什么美国总是要指责我们中国什么搞“债务陷阱”之类的，那是因为美国自己非常清楚，信贷这个东西，本身就是一种特殊的“能力”，如果不削弱中国这种特殊的对外能力，那么美元本身就会被削弱。

美国现在为什么没有能力搞二战后那一套了，原因就是，美国已经是双赤子了，已经没有能力创造“信用”盈余。

当然，从表面上看，美国可以自己印美元，但其实美元对外发得越多，美国对美元的循环就越难控制，因为发出去的美元，各国都去买中国的商品了，然后中国再去买这些国家的原材料，美元一旦发出来，除非美国进行自虐式回收（强力加息等），否则就失去了信用收益。这跟二战后，给全世界发美元，用来购买美国强大的产能，吸引全球资源流动，拉动美国的工业和各类技术发展时代已经不可同日而语了。

基于此，我们就可以找到未来货币的另一个重要“标识”，即未来能够持续的拥有，输出“信用”的国家，才能更好的扮演世界货币。我此前也一直在说一个问题，就是我们实际上是可以给主要的贸易伙伴，借出人民币的（以一定利率或抵押品、工程、贸易互利要求等）。

这里面，要说明一个问题，如果是简单的，为了帮助出口企业，那直接给出口（制造业）企业发钱，然后出口企业直接给国外发货不就完了，为啥还要把钱借给外国，然后让他们再来买中国的东西，这不等于啥也没干嘛。

其实不然，经济和货币的管理，是极其复杂的，你只有让每一个国家，每一个人自己去做决策，其缔造的循环，以及拉动起来的产业和科技，才是具有竞争力的。

所以说，只有把信用，释放到具体的国家和个人，这些国家和个人自己拿着有一定成本的钱（利息）去做决策的时候，才会“挑三拣四”，才会提出很多要求，才会考虑我到底需不需要这个东西，这个钱花得到底值不值，这个东西的性价比如何等等，这个时候所拉动起来的中国企业和产品，才是有竞争力的。

当然，这种借贷，不是说钱多得没地方去，我们要去撒钱，而是中国有这个信用的基础，有这个历史条件，来规划未来世界货币运行的可能循环。

中国现在是全球大部分国家的第一大贸易伙伴，也就是这些国家一旦持有人民币，不会出现用不掉的情况，一定会加强跟中国的各类循环，人民币的国际信用体系就诞生了，如果再加上足够的现代技术加持，未来货币的“起源”就有了雏形。

九

最后再做个简单的总结。

正是因为美元对世界经济的发展等，有过巨大的贡献，所以如今不可逆的去美元化，才存在如此之大的争议，但这就如同，在美元之前，全球有两次巨大的，由世界性货币刺激出来的全球贸易体系，最终也因为世界货币提供者一系列管理和现实能力的退化，而被“改朝换代”。

我就简单的说一下前两次世界货币对全球贸易的刺激。

其分别是16世纪至18世纪这段时间里，由西班牙控制美洲白银，使得白银供给量暴增引发的全球贸易；另一个是，18世纪末至20世纪初，由英国人控制南非高产量金矿，黄金供给迅速增加，而刺激出来的全球贸易。

四百多年前，西班牙在美洲发现了银矿，全球的白银供给实现了一次颠覆性的飞跃，短短几十年间，全球的白银供给量增加了数十倍，西班牙人用这些白银，开始疯狂的购买全世界的各种商品，包括中国的茶叶、丝绸、瓷器等，这些属于中国创造的奢侈品源源不断的涌入欧洲，而来自美洲的白银，通过菲律宾等中转站，源源不断的涌入中国。当时的东南亚，就已经是世界贸易的中心。

西班牙人利用美洲的白银，不仅从中国采购，还从旁边的英国大量的购买纺织品（工业革命的底层需求爆发），从荷兰等购买各种服务等等，这也刺激了全球航线，以及英国的工业，荷兰的船运商业、金融等发展。

到了18世纪末，英国在南非殖民中，发现了全球罕见的金矿，这个金矿丰富到什么程度呢，就是在半个世纪以前，这个金矿一年还能产金1000吨，什么概念，就是现在作为产金第一大国的中国，一年的产金量也还不到400吨。

也就是说，由于英国控制了南非的金矿，以黄金背书的英镑更加受到追捧，再加上得益于西班牙开启的白银贸易分工延续性（西班牙向英国采购工业品），把英国的工业刺激得已经有足够的竞争力了，英镑就有了两个背书资源，一个是来自南非充足的黄金，另一个是自己的工业制成品。

于是西班牙人只知道买买买，而没有建立自己的制造业和金融货币管理体系，后期已经没法跟英国竞争了，黄金英镑主导的全球贸易开始成型，这一全球贸易体系，直到二战结束，英国从债权国变成债务国，工业能力完全被美国取代，英镑输出信用的能力迅速消失，英镑的国际货币地位陨落，才算正式结束。

这里面，值得关注的是什么呢，就是无论是西班牙基于美洲白银发起的全球贸易，还是英国基于南非黄金发起的全球贸易，又或者是美国基于强大的工业和战胜国资源发起的美元全球贸易，都阶段性的迅速刺激了全球贸易和经济增长。

但难以回避的一个现实是，无论是西班牙白银贸易之后的世界混乱（西班牙、荷兰、英国、法国等海上混战），或者是英国黄金英镑贸易之后的一战、二战等，实际上都需要经历过渡期的混乱和“阵痛”。

如今的后美元时代，同样面临这样的危机，而值得期待的是，每当某种拉动和刺激全球贸易和经济增长的货币等资源，面临衰竭的时候，出现的各种“阵痛”恰恰会酝酿出新的拉动和刺激全球贸易和经济增长的货币等资源，这也是不可逆的。

所以不用担心美元之后的世界，这就如同过去的人们，并没有停留在西班牙和英国时代一样，未来的世界货币，在拉动全球贸易和经济增长方面，肯定比美元还要强大数倍，而我们需要警惕的，是如何用更强大的力量，保证其更为和平、确定性更高的走过这个“阵痛”期，而不至于让世界付出更大的代价。