chatgpt: subversive political truthchatgpt：颠覆性的政治真相

chatgpt: subversive political truth

With the popularity of artificial intelligence models represented by the ChatGPT series, people feel more and more that the future of a new round of technological explosion is not far away. Some commentators believe that the maturity of artificial intelligence will level people's information acquisition and expression capabilities to a large extent, while brain-computer, gene therapy, artificial organs and other technologies on the way will have a profound impact on the way of human existence and interpersonal relationships. Influence.

This article points out that, from ancient times to the present, the politics of human society belong to elite politics. The biggest subversion of technology to human society lies in enhancing the equality of people, leveling the differences between people, breaking down the barriers between "elite" and "mass", and weakening the foundation of elite politics, which will have a fundamental impact on social politics .

The author believes that society must establish a new moral system to adapt to the enhanced human society, and politics must also absorb ideological resources from civilian politics. Human politics adapted to new technologies may turn into a lifeless politics of the masses, or it may continue elite politics in the form of general strongman politics. In any case, the future of technology is coming. People should treat technological development with an open mind facing the future, and actively reconstruct the future political life model of mankind.

This article was originally published in Issue 2, 2023, of "New Horizons", originally titled "Let the Imagination Fly: Human Augmentation and the Twilight of Elite Politics". It only represents the author's point of view and is for readers' reference and analysis.

Let your imagination run wild:

Human Augmentation and the Twilight of Meritocracy

Contemporary technology is directly changing the structure of human existence, and correspondingly, it will also change the way people conduct social and political activities. Human augmentation technology is advancing rapidly and entering the field of application at an unexpected speed. The modern elite political model based on people's natural physiological and psychological differences will definitely be challenged by such technological breakthroughs in a predictable period of time. The meritocracy based on people's natural endowment and acquired opportunities may balance the technology that faces people's natural endowment and acquired differences. Moreover, will the equality of innate and acquired conditions that can be expected in the future and guaranteed by technology have a subversive impact on the long-term effective and taken-for-granted elite politics? Will it bring human politics to a whole new level? At the moment when technology enhances human beings and is developing at an accelerated rate, it has become a problem that requires urgent thinking.

▍The difference between human enhancement and human beings shrinks suddenly

Human enhancement is a programmatic proposition of technological futurism, which is a technological concept that is still quite avant-garde and not generally recognized. Technofuturism, especially transhumanism within it, is an idea that is highly associated with human augmentation. The meaning of technological futurism, roughly understood, is an ideal vision and optimism for the future of technology. Transhumanism is an idea that elucidates the future of human beings beyond reality. Its main ideas include immortality, human-machine fusion, space colonization, artificially enhanced intelligence, and so on. Transhumanists divide human evolution into three stages: the first is the prehistoric stage of humanity, the second is the modern human stage, and the third is the post/transhuman stage. Human enhancement is the goal of the third stage of human evolution. "Transhumanists see human nature as a half-finished product that we can learn to reshape in an ideal way. The current human being need not be the end of evolution. Transhumanists hope that through the responsible use of science, technology and other reasonable means , we will eventually become post-human, with more powerful abilities than current humans."

Judging from the actual state and constraints of current technological development, technological futurism focuses on the future rather than a description of the current technological reality. But we shouldn't think of human enhancement as merely a technological futuristic figment of the imagination. In a sense, human augmentation can be said to be a functional-to-structural breakthrough of human natural functioning, if it is not simply seen as the sole result of the birth of post/superhuman beings. It is a possible result of the rapid development of current technology and is being displayed. In this particular sense, perhaps as technofuturists would say, human augmentation is a keynote of human evolutionary history. In terms of connotation, the so-called human enhancement can distinguish two meanings: one is the functional enhancement of human beings, and the other is the structural enhancement of human beings. As far as the former is concerned, the efforts from traditional medicine to modern medicine, from physical fitness to improvement of basic necessities of life, have been playing a functional role in human enhancement since ancient times. This kind of functional enhancement of human beings is an effort to improve human resistance under the premise that human beings cannot break through the boundary between life and death, and are unable to fundamentally change the marginal structure between man and nature, man and himself, man and society, and man and God. , immunity, and disease resistance are the results of attempts at the vigor and vitality of natural life. In the meantime, ancient and modern medicine played a key role, and people's physical fitness, that is, sports, also showed great functions.

The structural enhancement of human beings is an astonishing breakthrough in current technology: the significant enhancement of human physical and mental mechanisms under the condition of maintaining the natural structure of human beings, and the breakthrough enhancement of human beings that may break through the boundaries of man-machine, life and death, and man-god. Augmentation technology is showing its brand-new status of enhancing people's natural functions and physical and mental structures in an all-round way. In terms of its basic meaning, the structural enhancement of human beings includes three aspects:

One is the controllability of human evolution. It is not like people have long believed that people can only accept the results of evolution. Human beings can only accept the result of evolution, which belongs to the creed of natural evolution; while human beings can control their own evolution, which belongs to the new creed of technological futurism.

The second is that contemporary technologies have shown the potential for human enhancement, such as genetic engineering, artificial intelligence and nanotechnology, which can significantly improve people's natural functions and body structure, and it presents a path from the improvement of the physical function of the human body to the improvement of human intelligence. Basic clues to progress in mechanic advancement.

The third is that humans can evolve from a natural version of the mind-body structure to a post-human structure that is smarter, longer-lived, and more compassionate. Thus, nature's version of limited intelligence, short-lived, cannibalistic humans would be radically improved. This is not a human improvement move that has led to tragedy, but a fundamentally different human development attempt to become stronger and better. With the birth of post-human/quasi-post-human, man will truly not be controlled by natural forces, but will actually control natural forces in turn.

These three are a mixture of the realistic development of technology and the prospect of technological futurism, but roughly present the current appearance and future hope of human enhancement. The actual technology that is beneficial to human enhancement can be recognized through three perspectives:

First, technically improve the basic structure of the human body. The most eye-catching technology in this regard is gene editing technology. Gene-editing techniques are part of broader genetic engineering. The development of genetic engineering has been relatively common, which is a way of artificially interfering with the genes of natural evolution, especially the pedigree breeding of animals and plants. In terms of human enhancement, gene editing technology seems to play a multifaceted role, "becoming more resistant to disease, recovering faster after injury, or being able to enhance our cognitive abilities and improve life span", these are exactly Fundamental features of current human augmentation technologies.

Second, improve people's mental structure technically. A technology that is showing tantalizing promise in this regard is the brain-computer interface. The brain-computer interface is a technology aimed at enhancing the human mind in addition to the technical reconstruction of the human body's skill structure. On the low end, it's for brain repair; at the high end, it's going to dramatically improve brain function. In the explanation of technical experts, "Brain-computer interface technology collects EEG signals, reads them to the computer, analyzes and extracts the characteristic information carried in them, and converts them into instructions to control external devices and controls the actions of the execution devices. The state of external devices is fed back to the brain to achieve precise control of external devices. In addition, the development of brain-computer interface technology allows people to stimulate brain nerves through electronic devices, thus providing the possibility to directly adjust and control brain nerve activity. If the intention of brain-computer interface technology is positioned at the optimization of memory and emotion, then it is an improvement of the human mental mechanism.

Third, continue to optimize people's physical and mental mechanisms technically. A technology that has shown widespread promise in this regard is nano-robots designed to protect and restore human physical and mental functions. This extremely small robot, in terms of basic functions, "can non-invasively enter and operate in dangerous or difficult-to-reach small spaces, and can be used for in vivo and in vitro testing, drug delivery, tissue repair and regeneration, micromanipulation and microassembly, environmental remediation, etc.” Moreover, the integrated operation of nano-robots and the human body breaks through the boundary between man-machine and life and death to a certain extent.

In the rapid development of human enhancement technology in the vision of technological futurism, human differences will show a rapidly shrinking result: in the natural evolution, different individuals with distinct physical qualities will tend to a common health The direction, the congenital and acquired physical defects, neurological and spiritual problems that once plagued people will no longer be a problem, and the existing or unexisting diseases of people seem to have a bright prospect of being solved easily. This is a sudden reduction in the significant variability among human individuals. This will make the social and political order of human beings based on the physical and mental differences among individuals face a problem of structural reconstruction.

After thousands of years of exploration, human beings have established a social and political order that is adapted and designed on the basis of individual differences. Such an order is that individuals with good physical and mental conditions and their clusters occupy a dominant position in the social and political order and exercise unshakable rule over those who are inherently and acquiredly disadvantaged in terms of individual conditions. This is the way of argumentation of people's physical and mental conditions for the formation and maintenance of elite politics. It is on the basis of the differences in physical and mental conditions that elite political theorists further summarize the elite history view and elite philosophy from the long history. In the trend of human enhancement, the two groups of elites and the masses that used to draw sharp boundaries seem to be less important, and it is even difficult to maintain the basic reasons for its justification.

With the development of human enhancement technology, the difference between the elite and the masses is rapidly shrinking. This is a phenomenon of sudden shrinkage of differences in physical and mental structure and ability. It is the emergence of this sudden shrinkage phenomenon, according to the aforementioned enumerated human enhancement technology, which is reflected in a significant change in the advantages of an elite group: gene editing technology for the suppression of congenital diseases, physical fitness and strength among individuals The difference between weak and weak is significantly reduced, which may lead to the loss of the advantages of those able-bodied people who think they can bear greater loads; the development of brain-computer interface technology not only enables effective diagnosis and treatment of brain diseases, but also allows fundamental optimization of brain functions. As a result, the differences in intelligence between individuals will be significantly reduced, and a generally high level of intelligence can be expected, which makes it difficult for the elite to maintain their advantages of being smart, wise, and capable. The narrowing of the gap in the human body also reduces the acquired differences among individuals as a whole, which not only reduces the possibility of enlarging individual differences in different periods of life, but also reduces the differential treatment among individuals to maintain vigor and vitality. The so-called elite The definition of physical and mental elements will undergo tremendous changes.

▍Fuzzy border

Looking at the historical clues, the political tradition from ancient times to the present can indeed be said to be a tradition of dual construction of the elite and the masses. However, at the time of technological breakthroughs in human enhancement, the boundary between the elite and the masses began to blur, and the self-justifying reasons for elite politics seemed to be rapidly disappearing. It is extremely difficult to continue to describe the social and political history of mass domination, and the basic presupposition of elitism in political history by elite politics is bound to come to an end.

From the perspective of the development of human enhancement technology and its general trend, the realistic and future prospects of this technology have given people reasons to look forward to some anti-elitist effect it may play. The only flood channel for anti-elitistism is the mass orientation, but the results of anti-elites may be different. On the one hand, the results of anti-elites may only be the replacement of elite groups and generations. The result of the elite; on the other hand, the result of anti-elite is to blur the rigid boundary between the elite and the public, or even completely flatten the current boundary between the elite and the public. When genetic technology maintains the physical functions of all people at almost the same level, the method of distinguishing people by strong and weak will become invalid; when brain-computer interface technology raises the way of using the human brain to a very close When nanotechnology maintains the functions of all people at a common high level, the crowd will be divided into groups of vitality, shrewdness and incompetence. Vitality, incompetence to distinguish the value will evaporate. This is a major blow to the conventional wisdom that crowds are treated differently as elites or masses:

First, from a low-end point of view, human enhancement technology can at least significantly reduce the significance of traditional indicators that distinguish the physical function and mental state of the elite from the public, which makes the basis for the elite to rule the public based on their strong endowment and dominant position. Deprived, at least it is a certain encouragement for the masses who are difficult to obtain elite status to change their situation and social status.

Second, from a mid-level point of view, human enhancement technology can put everyone in a state of physical fitness, physical and mental pleasure, and quick action. Inherited social advantages are a subtle subversion. Since there is no great difference in endowments and improvement mechanisms for everyone, their strengths and weaknesses in social organization actions will not appear differently.

Third, from a high-end point of view, human enhancement technology will fundamentally change the natural structure of people, thereby completely optimizing people's physical and mental functions, keeping everyone in a good state at roughly the same level, and completely balancing people's physical and mental differences. It also fails to provide support for elitism in terms of physical and mental functions.

In comparison, the high-end result of human enhancement technology is still completely an expectation, the mid-range result is a state that can be expected, and the low-end result is a realistic and predictable situation. In short, human enhancement technology has blurred the fundamental reason for the distinction between the elite and the masses, thus depriving the traditional argumentation approach of elite politics as a precondition of people’s physical and mental differences. Based on this, people can logically think about a question: Can elite politics be maintained in its current state and continue to be a basic trend of human politics?

▍Equality or mediocrity: the direction of elite politics

Since human enhancement technology can show different degrees of innate and acquired differences between people on the three endpoints of high, middle and low, this makes many acquired development models based on innate differences seem to be crumbling. In other words, the elite is a social result that has achieved excellent development based on the excellent innate endowment and has been affirmed by history. Because the innate endowment conditions no longer have such a large difference between people when human beings enhance technology. , this supporting condition for elites may no longer exist. At the same time, since the elite develops after the day after tomorrow, especially in the established social and political life, it has achieved a dominant position in which the minority influences the majority, which makes it difficult to cross the boundary between the elite and the masses. However, with the widespread use of human augmentation technology, people’s physical and mental states can be optimized according to needs. Then, the directional enhancement in response to the needs of human development will change the unfavorable situation of acquired development and make up for what is lacking in acquired development. The lack of various conditions narrows the difference in human acquired development, or even completely eliminates it. Correspondingly, a possible indifferent development result among people will make the elite view of history nowhere to collect evidence.

At present, the above statement is naturally an inference, but there is one thing that people can believe without doubt: elite politics will be challenged by human enhancement technology in all aspects and fundamentally. Such a challenge could lead to an unsustainable elite political order, as noted above. Then, at a time when elite politics is hardly as impregnable as it has been in history, it is logical to think about the future of elite politics. On the clues of the development process of human augmentation technology from reality to the future, thinking about the possible way out of elite politics depends on the following three related considerations: First, whether elite politics is sufficient to maintain its own structural characteristics can continue to be maintained. The second is whether elite politics is being challenged in terms of functionality or structural issues. Third, if elite politics encounters structural challenges, what is the possible way out.

First, whether meritocracy is sufficient to maintain its own structural characteristics can continue to be maintained. The reason why elite politics can be maintained for a long time and has been identified by elitists as the basic form of political rule through ancient and modern times is because it has some structural characteristics that are sufficient to maintain itself. In short, if meritocracy fails to maintain its structural characteristics, it will face an inevitable reconfiguration.

According to the general elaboration of the theory of elite politics, its structural characteristics are as mentioned above: in the crowd, there are always a few people who are naturally outstanding, and the majority are mediocre. In the process of constant change, social change is always driven by different elite groups and presented by the replacement of old elites by new elites. The territoriality and composition of elites can be different, such as political elites, economic elites, and technical elites. The elites in these areas take turns to play a role. The new elites mobilize the people and the old elites alienate the people, but the situation of elite domination of history has not changed; the basic structure of elite rule over the masses is deeply rooted in the fertile soil of social stratification. There are three levels of top, middle, and bottom. As long as the top mainly uses the middle to control the bottom, and as long as social stratification is finally presented through the action mechanism of the powerful minority and the "silent majority", then the rule of the elite will not be shaken.

Under the impact of human enhancement technology, these structural characteristics of elite politics seem to be shaken: on the basis that the natural structure of human body and mind is equalized by human enhancement technology, the differences between innate and acquired are balanced, and the support of the elite and the public in physical and mental structure It will be significantly weakened, and it will no longer be useful to use physical strength and shrewdness as the physical and mental armor of the elite. Correspondingly, in the post-elite state of society, social change may no longer be the emergence of elites in turn, but non-elite groups may independently decide their group affairs. Furthermore, it is difficult to maintain the marginal boundaries of the high, middle, and bottom divisions in social stratification. Elite politics will be shaken by human enhancement technology, so the self-sustaining mechanism of elite politics to transform groups and generations will encounter obvious challenges.

Second, whether meritocracy is being challenged is a functional aspect or a structural issue. Human enhancement technology can indeed shake elite politics, but even if the structure of elite politics is shaken, elite politics can maintain its basic political mechanism without being subverted through the adjustment of its own mechanism.

This requires a distinction between two issues: First, is the structural characteristics of elite politics being shaken, is it being shaken in the sense of subversion, or is it being shaken in terms of the operating mechanism of the structure? If the former, meritocracy would be over. If it is the latter, elite politics can still maintain its basic structure with the help of adjustments to its operating mechanism. The second is that the structure of elite politics itself is shaken, is it shaken in the sense of a complete end, or is it shaken in the sense of structural reorganization? If it is the former, then elite politics has no future; if it is the latter, elite politics may be injected with new factors and be reorganized into a new type of elite politics, or other forms of politics that have kinship with elite politics. Generally speaking, the current human enhancement technology has shaken the structural characteristics of elite politics, but has not directly touched the deep structure of elite politics. In other words, elites, even though they are elites with different faces, that is, technical elites will lead social changes after replacing political elites and capital elites, but the overall social structure dominated by elites will not be changed, and not any social individual can lead social changes and technological progress. operate with politics.

However, it can be speculated from some signs that the structure of elite politics itself is shaken, which is an expected result: when the physical conditions for dividing the elite from the masses are no longer clear, human enhancement technology is equivalent to drawing the bottom of the elite politics; The mechanism of winning the recognition of the public by its extraordinary performance is reduced by human enhancement technology, and the glory is shared equally by all members of society who may perform outstanding performance, which is equivalent to attributing the extraordinary excellence of the elite to mediocrity Unsurprisingly, the reason why the elites are amazing disappears invisible; when the elite no longer exists as a social class, the stratified cooperation system in which the elite is at the top of society, the middle supports the social mechanism, and the bottom follows the crowd is invisible. Without the basis for its existence, whether the word elite still has substantial meaning is already a question; and the dominant influence of elites on society is just a frivolous historical memory.

Third, if meritocracy encounters structural challenges, what are the possible ways out. When meritocracy is structurally shaken and eventually ends, it will appear as a long process of decline and end: it will continue to attempt to maintain itself in the initial stage of being shaken, and in this attempt Maintain the established structure; of course, under the circumstances of gradually losing the reason for the existence of elite politics and losing various resources to maintain the territory, elite politics may move towards a different political form that replaces its status and role. The hedging effect of the two forces, in the long-term tug-of-war with advances and retreats, the resources of elite politics will gradually be exhausted, allowing alternative political forms to emerge and eventually replace the form of elite politics. It is not yet possible to see the general outlines of an alternative model of meritocracy, to describe exactly what kind of politics it will be. Although the overall outline of alternative politics cannot be clearly described, the basic characteristics of anti-elite politics and the transitional form of alternative politics are vaguely discernible: populist politics or civilian politics that resist elite politics have always been based on the fact that the masses have the same characteristics as the elites. Oriented to the political wisdom and ability to act, it also indicates that if elite politics is going to decline and end, it is likely to draw resources from the ideas and practices of anti-elite politics. Therefore, the political form that replaces elite politics must absorb ideological resources from civilian politics, and at the same time try to highlight political equality that is different from the unequal rule of the minority over the majority emphasized by elite politics.

The basic idea of opposing hierarchical elite politics with equal democratic politics is the basic idea that people have resisted elite politics for a long time, and it is also a common way out for all kinds of alternatives to elite politics. But even within this broad line of thinking, advocates of an egalitarian democracy accept differences in physical, emotional, and intellectual strengths, not merely as spiritual and political The main battlefields of politics are chosen in the political and moral spheres, not in the natural differences of human physical, emotional, and intellectual strengths. This is an approach in line with the social situation where human enhancement technology is basically absent and underdeveloped.

Under the circumstances that human enhancement technology has made obvious progress but has not yet achieved its fundamental goal, will there be major changes in the methods and approaches of resisting or opposing elite politics? It seems possible: since the physical, emotional and intellectual differences among people, which are one of the preconditions of elite politics, can be partially or even completely balanced by human enhancement technology, then based on this How can the social and political rules and ethical and moral order in the world be maintained calmly? People must reconstruct a set of social and political rules and ethical and moral orders corresponding to the natural conditions of individual human beings with little or even little difference. In other words, a contentious socio-political order and ethical and moral rules established on the basis of a naturally unequal state of human beings, whose themes of contention have been eliminated by human-enhanced technology, will inevitably rebuild the socio-political rules and ethical and moral order: this not only means To use the rule of law to limit the advantage of the elite over the masses, and to ensure equality of the starting point, process, and results on the basis of equal rights, such attempts need to reset the foundation; it also means a highly developed productive force and the comprehensive and free development of human beings. The construction of an ideal society as a prerequisite also needs to re-examine the social problems it tries to solve fundamentally.

The more desirable development of human enhancement technology is obviously conducive to people's pursuit of equal political attempts different from elite politics. But when we say goodbye to elite politics, does human enhancement technology really help create equality politics when it dismantles the basis of natural differences between people on which elite politics depends? This is a question that needs further exploration. Because elite politics is based on the distinction between elites and the masses. If elite politics comes to an end, it is because the natural differences of people based on which elites are divided are flattened by human enhancement technology. Then, based on the natural differences of people Without the confirmation and deeds of elites in the world, there is no reason to be regarded as superior in physical and mental intelligence and shrewd. So two possibilities emerged: Either everyone could become an elite figure that was elusive in the era of elite politics due to the blessing of human enhancement technology, and equality would come to the world; or it could be because everyone has the same Physical strength, intelligence, and the same shrewdness and ability, but everyone is in a mediocre state where you have, I have, and everyone has. A mediocrity that lacks the heroism of the admirable elite permeates, allowing politics to enter a state. A state of lifeless boredom and silence.

Driven by human enhancement technology, meritocracy has been pulled from the bottom, and everyone is expected to have the same physical intelligence and the same shrewd ability, so equality politics or civilian politics can be expected. In the current thinking of elite politics, the equality achieved by people through social political and moral and ethical means is far from an equality from the starting point, process to result. This kind of equality often only exists in the imaginary world of Utopia. The most desirable equality is mainly a kind of equality of opportunity. This allows elite politics to retain its final basis: even if a society allows people to obtain the same development opportunities through various moral, legal, political and policy designs, it cannot guarantee that everyone can obtain the same development results. In this way, fairness and justice are guaranteed, elites can still display their innate endowments and acquired talents, and the public can no longer complain, resent or hate society because they have gained opportunities for development. Therefore, in the process of social operation, the value of equality and the role of elites complement each other. However, it is difficult to satisfy the all-round equality of the masses by saving elite politics with equal opportunities

The ultimate goal of human enhancement technology is to create post/superhuman beings, but the obvious enhancement of people's physical and mental abilities is the driving force of this technology. Whether the former can achieve expectations is still a matter that cannot be arbitrarily determined; but the latter has obviously been shown in front of people in reality. Driven by the aforementioned human enhancement technology, the masses, who have long been dominated by a small number of elites with high physical intelligence and outstanding shrewdness, are expected to overcome this gap in function and skills, and be at a relatively close or exactly the same level as the elite Above: As mentioned earlier, genetic technology has its positive aspects, but it may also induce dire consequences: whether it is from the perspective of unfair use of genetic technology to make the strong stronger and the weak weaker, there may be shocking The worrying results are even more worrying from the perspective of the inherent risk of gene mutation induced by genetic technology, which is difficult to control. However, the optimization ability of technology and various guarantee conditions for the legitimate use of technology have the powerful power to regulate genetic technology. Of course, it cannot be said that genetic technology only benefits mankind and does not bring disasters to mankind. Human beings need to actively face technological progress first, so that technology will benefit mankind.

Based on this, it can be deduced that although the brain-computer interface technology also has a great risk of being used by technological lunatics and political lunatics to control human beings, it also has a major positive effect on the treatment of brain neurological diseases, and can significantly improve human brain function and The positive function of the structure. As far as the latter is concerned, the ability to actively accept external information, improve brain function, and enhance the performance of brain activity for those who receive incomplete, incomplete, and ineffective information is obviously helpful to them in a more effective way. Intervene in public life, assist public welfare activities, and improve public welfare. These activities, which used to be the intellectual elites to exert significant performance, allow ordinary people to enter and exert obvious effects. Obviously, it is an improvement on the elite politics that is highly repellent by the public. If the development of nanotechnology is as desired, its overall positive effect on the improvement of people's physical and mental functions will significantly reduce the physical and mental advantages that the elite can be proud of, and even even out the differences between the elite and the public. This is still a generalization from the perspective of human-enhanced technology that has shown practical effects. If we agree with the vision of technological futurism, then the subversion and end of elite politics is not a problem. This is a brief summary of the preceding analysis. In any case, meritocracy seems to have faded into the twilight and the end of the day in the advancement of human enhancement technology.

With the powerful promotion of human enhancement technology, at least in terms of physical and mental conditions, there will be a new scene of elites or quasi-elites everywhere. As mentioned earlier, the generalization of elites may promote the formation of universal elite politics. The so-called universal elite politics is a somewhat ironic proposition. Because the precondition of elite politics is the existence of a small elite group in sharp contrast to the huge public group. Without the masses, how can there be elites? vice versa. The generalization of elite politics is tantamount to canceling the reason for the existence of elite politics. When the political structure of the dichotomy between the elite and the masses may collapse, where will the human political activity model go? As mentioned above, elite politics may move towards a kind of elite politics, mass politics, or completely irreversible political forms. If we cannot accurately predict the direction of elite politics, according to conservative political predictions, then elite politics is most likely to turn into a general strongman politics.

The question that needs to be asked is, is there a possibility of a universal strongman? The strongman politics here is not an arbitrary political form that gathers all authorities in the traditional sense, nor is it a centralized political form in which the shifting territorial elites dominate various affairs in modern society. A new political model where everyone is fit. Judging from the current situation, such a political model has virtual characteristics. However, in terms of development prospects, it is realistic to expect that human enhancement technology can generally and effectively improve the physical and mental structure of the public. Therefore, it is not an exaggeration to say that the vast majority of people can enter the public political field with a strong physical and mental structure based on the great improvement of their physical and mental structures. In this regard, general strongman politics is a less ironic proposition than general elite politics.

Considering the reconstruction of political mechanisms along the lines of human enhancement technology, there may be two development trends in the current elite political mechanism:

One trend is that if people's physical fitness, intelligence, skills, and leadership abilities are equalized, it is inevitable that elite politics will completely transform into mass politics. This is a way to reverse elite politics and return to populist or civilian politics.

Another trend, as mentioned above, if human enhancement technology still cannot equalize human differences, elite politics will persist in a weak form for a long time, that is, a new type of general strongman politics will remake elite politics and maintain it.

As far as the former is concerned, because of its obvious anti-political nature from the current perspective, it is actually difficult for the general mediocre politics to function effectively.

Regarding the latter, the so-called universal strongman politics has its restrictive meaning: on the one hand, it means that everyone has the internal and external conditions to become a strongman; on the other hand, it means that everyone has the possibility or opportunity to become a strongman. On the one hand, it means that everyone adheres to the principle of treating each other as the strong. This is a weakened form of meritocracy. Weaknesses are manifested in:

One is that the number of "elite" clusters has grown exponentially, so that it is no longer necessary to name this group elites, which are different from the general public. At most, it is natural to call them "strong men" because of their strong physique and extraordinary abilities , the meaning taken by the strong man is not arbitrary in the traditional sense, but the strong meaning of human physical and mental structure. The fact that this political form has become a development trend is based on the decline of elite politics and the need for a new political form to fill the political vacuum left by its decline.

The second is that the operation of this political form is no longer based on the premise of dichotomy between the elite and the masses, nor is it marked by being smart and capable, nor is it based on the basic historical view of elites leading social and historical changes; The conditions are that they have high and low levels of action, and enjoy almost indiscriminate social influence. As a result, the situation of power struggle, bullying, and winner-take-all that people seem to have become accustomed to in politics will be significantly reduced, and the strongman politics dominated by super political elites with personal charisma will also lose its space. The rational cooperation mechanism promoted on the basis of little difference in strength may become the new political normal. This could be a huge, as yet unanticipated, impact of human augmentation on politics.

In the face of possible general strongman politics, people will argue at least three major issues:

First, although human enhancement technology may provide everyone with the physical and mental conditions of physical strength, intellectual superiority, and shrewdness, will this guarantee that everyone has a corresponding equal opportunity to perform as an elite? It is a defense that meritocracy cannot be subverted and ended. Because even when human enhancement technology develops rapidly and can be widely used, everyone has the opportunity to become a strongman, but the possibility of actually becoming a strongman is limited by resources and distribution paradigms. In fact, the opportunity to become a strongman is not equal, even highly inequitable. As a result, there is a huge gap between human augmentation technology being able to make someone strong and actually being strong. In the same way, when social resources are not rich enough to allow everyone to actually become an elite, it is difficult to end the political dominance of the minority elite over the majority of the public through the basic political situation in ancient and modern times. Just show up. In other words, the elite will not leave the field, and it will be difficult for the masses to turn into elites or strongmen. This is an inference from the social outcome of human enhancement technology, whether it has the ability to end elite politics, and it can be fully established under the current situation. But when human enhancement technology really develops to its ideal state, such a conclusion that is conducive to maintaining elite politics may be subverted by general strongman politics or general elite politics: because when people’s body and mind develop to almost the same state, Not only is the current elite politics unable to provide order to such a society, but also in the case of human beings rapidly expanding their space for activities, the general strongmen or elites are no longer limited by the earth's space with scarce resources, but have the ability to exert their extraordinary abilities. the vast world. How can the traditional elite politics based on a large number of people and a shortage of resources limit the development of a new type of politics that has a large number of people but greatly expanded development space?

Second, in what mode of operation does general strongman politics really work? The presupposition of strongman politics is based on the existence of disadvantaged groups. Can human enhancement technology be universally applied to everyone? Wouldn't it be selectively applied to the powerful/elite groups in society, further strengthening their physical and mental functions and skills, in contrast to further weakening the physical and mental functions and skills of the bottom groups in society? In this way, the existing elite political structure will be further consolidated, and the transformation of the long-established elite politics into a new political form will be successfully prevented. Such an assertion is not only a suspicion and fear of the progressive momentum carried by technological development, but also a fundamental rejection of the humanized situation that political development inevitably presents. From the perspective of a history of technology, any powerful technology that benefits mankind will indeed benefit a few people first, but with the rapid development of technology, the benefit area will always expand rapidly. Modern technology has never been an exclusive tool for tyrants and powerful groups to maintain their privileges. From the perspective of modern political history, the constitutional democratic system tends to mature, and it always tends to use advanced technology to improve governance and governance skills, and promote the expansion of democratic benefits. Therefore, although those in power who control power always tend to maintain self-interest, the operation of the democratic system is always biased towards restricting power and protecting rights. The interaction of technological fairness and political fairness will form a powerful force that rejects traditional strongman or privileged elite politics. But this does not constitute a question or subversion of the new elite or strongman politics.

Third, will general strongman politics be divided into more powerful and relatively weak groups among powerful actors? This is a kind of speculation about the relationship between strongmen and the relationship between elites, which is close to elite politics, under the precondition of almost acknowledging the general strongman politics. Traditional elite politics divides elites into different types such as elites and sub-elites, elites and quasi-elites, in order to distinguish between elites on stage and elites off stage, elites who are exerting influence and elites who will exert influence. This is a sociological distinction. In other words, this distinction does not affect the existence of elite politics, it only appears as the manifestation of elite politics. However, when elite politics ignores elites of different levels or fields as differences from the perspective of political science, and regards them as strongmen whose physical and mental differences are generally guaranteed by human enhancement technology is very small, or even negligible differences, universal elite politics or universal strongmen Politics becomes a form of politics that makes sense.

It is foreseeable that if the development of human enhancement technology can always be kept within the constraints of social and political rules and ethical norms, it will definitely play a great role in reshaping the state of human political life and maintaining it at a certain level. in a state of human consent. If human enhancement technology is difficult to be regulated and controlled in the rapid development, and even becomes a wild horse, then it may bring unexpected disasters to human beings. In this regard, the political risks inherent in human enhancement technology must be guarded against. This is the reason why all countries urgently mobilized and tried to restrain the development of high technology with socio-political, legal rules and ethical norms, and prevent its violations and anomie. "This is an age of hope, but also with new challenges. Digital technologies have in fact become both tools and weapons. They remind us of the words of Albert Einstein in 1932, and are a reminder of the many benefits of the machine age, But at the same time, it calls on humans to ensure that their organizational capabilities keep pace with technological progress. As we continue to strive to bring more technology to humans, we also need to infuse technology with more humanity."

Human enhancement technology is obviously a double-edged sword for humans. Therefore, it is absolutely necessary and absolutely important to effectively restrain it. However, the development logic of technology itself is often not under the absolute control of political, legal and moral logic, and it always has the energy of sharp breakthroughs. Therefore, it is not advisable to simply and rudely restrict the development of human enhancement technology. We must have the courage to face the unpredictable future of rapid technological development. "For most of human history, we have been subject to imperceptibly slow evolutionary pressures on us from the natural world. Now that we have control over the intensity and object of natural selection, evolution has progressed faster than ever before. Everything that living things experience is faster, and it is already difficult for us to predict what the human genome will look like in a few decades. In this case, who dares to say that our species or the biological world will be hundreds or thousands of years from now? What will it look like?" Therefore, to treat and deal with the development of human enhancement technology with a future-oriented and open mind, and to actively reconstruct the future political life mode of human beings is an aggressive approach that needs to be advocated. This is also the motivation for the author to examine the future of elite politics from the perspective of human enhancement technology development.

 chatgpt：颠覆性的政治真相

随着以ChatGPT系列为代表的人工智能大模型的火热，人们越来越感受到，新一轮科技爆发的未来已经不远。有评论认为，人工智能的成熟，将在很大程度上拉平人们的信息获取和表达能力，而脑机、基因治疗、人造器官等正在路上的技术，都将对人类生存方式以及人际关系产生深刻影响。

本文指出，从古至今，人类社会的政治都属于精英政治。技术对人类社会最大的颠覆，在于增强人的平等性，拉平人与人之间的差异，打破“精英”和“大众”的壁垒，削弱精英政治的基础，而这将对社会政治产生根本影响。

作者认为，社会必须建立一套新的道德体系，来适应人类增强后的社会，政治也必须从平民政治那里吸取思想资源。适应新技术的人类政治，可能会转变为死气沉沉的庸众政治，也可能以一种普遍强人政治的形式将精英政治延续下去。无论如何，技术的未来正在到来，人们要以面向未来的开放心境，对待技术发展，并积极重构人类未来的政治生活模式。

本文原载《新视野》2023年第2期，原题为《放飞想象：人类增强与精英政治的黄昏》。仅代表作者观点，供读者参考辨析。

放飞想象：

人类增强与精英政治的黄昏

当代技术正在直接改变人的存在结构，相应也会改变人的社会政治活动方式。人类增强技术正日新月异地发展，并以出人意料的速度进入应用领域。建立在人的自然生理与心理差异性基础上的现代精英政治模式，在一个可以预料的时间段内，一定会受到这样的技术突破的全方位挑战。建立在人的天赋异禀与后天机遇基础上的精英政治，或许将面对人的自然禀赋与后天差异的技术敉平。而且，未来可期的、由技术保障的人的先天与后天条件的平等性，会对长期行之有效、视之当然的精英政治造成颠覆性影响吗？会让人类政治步入一个全新的境地吗？在技术增强人类处在加速度发展的当下，已经成为一个需要紧迫思考的问题。

▍人类增强与人的差异骤缩

人类增强属于技术未来主义的纲领性主张，这是一种目前还显得相当前卫、未被普遍认可的技术观念。技术未来主义，尤其是其中的超人类主义，是与人类增强高度关联在一起的理念。技术未来主义的含义，粗略理解即面向技术未来的一种理想愿景与乐观主义。超人类主义则是一种对超越现实人类的未来进行阐发的思想，其主要理念包括永生、人机融合、太空殖民、人工增强智能等等。超人类主义者将人类进化划分为三个阶段：一是人类前史阶段，二是现代人类阶段，三是后/超人类阶段。而人类增强正是第三阶段人类进化的目标。“超人类主义者将人性视为一个半成品，我们可以学习以理想的方式来重塑它。当前的人类不必成为进化的终点。超人类主义者希望通过负责任地使用科学、技术和其他合理手段，我们最终将成为后人类，拥有比现在人类更强大的能力。”

就当下技术发展的实际状态及受限情况来看，技术未来主义乃是着眼于将来，而非对当下技术现实的描述。但我们不应将人类增强仅仅看作是技术未来主义的空洞想象。在某种意义上，如果不是将人类增强单纯看作是后/超人类的诞生这个唯一结果，而看作是人类自然机能的某种从功能性到结构性突破的话，那么，可以说人类增强正是当下技术飞跃发展的、正在展现的一种可能性结果。在这个特定意义上，可能正如技术未来主义者所说的，人类增强其实是人类进化史的一个主调。从内涵上讲，所谓人类增强，可以区分出两个意涵：一是人类的功能性增强，二是人类的结构性增强。就前者讲，从传统医学到现代医学的努力，从强身健体到衣食住行的改善，从古至今一直在发挥人类增强的功能性作用。这样的人类功能性增强，是在人无法突破生死界限，也无力从根本上改变人与自然、人与自身、人与社会、人与神的边际结构的前提条件下，努力提升人的抵抗能力、免疫能力、抗病能力即自然生命的生机与活力的尝试的结果。其间，古代与现代医学发挥出关键作用，而人的强身健体即体育运动也显现出巨大功能。

人类的结构性增强，则是当下技术的惊人突破：在人的自然结构维持条件下所做的人类身心机制的显著增强，以及可能突破人机、生死与人神界限的人类突破性增强，人类增强技术正全方位展现其强化人的自然机能与身心结构的崭新状态。就其基本含义来讲，人类的结构性增强包含三个方面的意思：

一是人类进化的可控性，它不像人们长期以来认定的那样，人仅仅只能接受进化的结果。人类只能接受进化的结果，属于一种自然进化论的信条；而人类可以控制自身的进化，则属于技术未来主义的新信条。

二是当代技术已经显示出人类增强的潜力，诸如基因工程、人工智能和纳米技术， 都能显著改善人的自然机能与身体结构，而且它呈现为一条从人身体的物理功能改善向人的智能机制提升进展的基本线索。

三是人类可以从自然版本的身心结构发展到更聪明、更长寿，也更富同情心的后人类结构。因此，自然版本中聪明程度受限、生命历程短暂、同类相残的人类品行会得到根本改善。这不是一个曾经导致悲剧的人种改良举动，而是与之根本区别的人类趋强向善的发展尝试。随着后人类/准后人类的诞生，人将真正不受自然力量的控制， 而会反过来真正控制自然力量。

这三者，混合了技术的现实发展与技术未来主义的展望，但大致呈现了人类增强的当下面目与未来希望。有利于人类增强的实际技术，可以通过三个角度来加以认知：

其一，在技术上改善人体的基本结构。这方面最引人瞩目的技术就是基因编辑技术。基因编辑技术是更为广泛的基因工程的一部分。基因工程的开展已经相对普遍，这是对自然进化的基因进行人工干预的一种方式，动植物方面的系谱育种尤为引人瞩目。在人类增强方面， 基因编辑技术似乎可以发挥多方面的作用，“对疾病的抵抗力变得更强，受伤后恢复得更快，或者能够增强我们的认知能力，提高寿命”，这些正是当下人类增强技术的基本特点。

其二，在技术上改善人的心智结构。这方面正在展现诱人前景的技术是脑机接口。脑机接口是在人的身体技能结构的技术再造之外，旨在增强人类心智的技术。从低端看，它用于大脑修复；从高端看，它将显著提升大脑功能。在技术专家的阐释中，“脑机接口技术通过采集脑电信号、读取至计算机、分析和提取其中携带的特征信息，将其转化为控制外部设备的指令并控制执行设备的动作，同时将外部设备的状态反馈至大脑，实现外部设备的精确控制。另外，脑机接口技术的发展为人们通过电子设备对脑神经进行刺激，从而为直接对脑神经活动进行调整和控制提供了可能”。如果将脑机接口技术的意图定位在记忆情感优化的话，那么它就是一种对人心智机制的改良。

其三，在技术上持续优化人的身心机制。这方面已经显示出广泛运用前景的技术是旨在保护与修复人的身心机能的纳米机器人。这种体积极小的机器人，在基本功用上讲，“可以无创进入及运行在危险或难以到达的狭小空间中，可以被用来进行体内和体外检测、药物递送、组织修复和再生、微操作和微装配、环境修复等”。而且，纳米机器人与人体的合一运行，在一定程度突破了人机与生死的界限。

在技术未来主义视野中的人类增强技术疾速发展中，人的差异性会呈现一种迅速缩小的结果：在自然进化中让人的不同个体呈现出鲜明差异的身体素质会趋向一个共同的健康方向， 曾经困扰人的先天与后天的身体缺陷、神经与精神问题将不再成为问题，人的已然或未然疾患，似乎也都浮现出迎刃而解的光明前景。这是人类个体间显著差异性的一种骤然缩小。这将使人类建立在个体间身心差异性基础上的社会政治秩序面临一个结构性重建的问题。

人类经由数千年的探索，建立起了在个体差异性基础上磨合、设计出来的社会政治秩序。这样的秩序，就是身心条件优良的个体及其构成的集群，占据社会政治秩序中的支配地位，对那些在个体条件上处在先天与后天不利地位的人群进行难以撼动的统治。这就是精英政治之得以形成和维持的一种人的身心条件论证思路。正是在身心条件差异性的基础上，精英政治论者进一步从漫长的历史中归纳出精英史观、精英哲学。在人类增强的趋势中，曾经划分出鲜明界限的精英与大众两个群体，似乎不那么重要了，甚至很难维持它得以证成的基本理由。

随着人类增强技术的发展，精英与大众的差异性迅速缩小。这是一种身心构造、能力显现两方面差异的骤缩现象。正是这种骤缩现象的出现，依照前述枚举性的人类增强技术来讲， 体现为一种精英群体优势的显著转变：基因编辑技术对先天疾病的克治，个体之间的身体素质与强弱差异明显缩小，这让那些自认为可以承担更大负重的身强力壮者的优势可能丧失；脑机接口技术的发展，不仅让脑疾病得到有效诊治，而且可能让脑机能得到根本优化，个体之间智力差异会因此明显降低，且智力的普遍高水准明显可期，这让精英自恃的聪敏睿智、精明强干优势难以为继；纳米机器人的普及型使用，不但让个体间的身心差异在先天差异上的差距缩小，也让个体间的后天差异在整体上降低，这就不仅减少了个体差异在生命不同时段上的拉大可能，而且缩小了个体间维持生机与活力的差别待遇，所谓精英的身心要素界定就此将发生巨大变化。

▍模糊的边界

拉长历史线索来看，自古至今的政治传统，确实可以说是精英与大众二元建构的传统。但在人类增强的技术突破发生之际，精英与大众划分的边界开始模糊起来，精英政治足以自证的理由似乎正在迅速丧失，精英与大众的区隔很难继续成为社会分层的模式，精英对大众统治的社会政治史描述殊难继续演绎，而精英政治对政治史的精英主义通观的基本预设也势必打上休止符。

在人类增强技术的发展及其大趋势的视野中，这一技术的现实可望性与未来可期性，已具有让人展望其可能发挥的某种反精英主义的效用的理由。反精英主义的唯一泄洪渠道是大众取向，但反精英的结果则可能有所不同，一方面，反精英的结果可能只是精英群体与代际的替代，这是一种前述的、工具性的反精英结果；另一方面，反精英的结果便是将精英与大众之间的刚性界限模糊化，甚至是完全敉平精英与大众的目前界限。当基因技术将所有人的身体机能差不多维持在一个水平线上的时候，人群以强健有力与弱不禁风来区分彼此的做法就会失效；当脑机接口技术将人的大脑运用方式提升到一个非常接近的程度的状态时，人群以聪明睿智与冥顽不灵分群对待的做法就会丧失意义；当纳米技术将所有人的机能大致维护在一个共同的高水平线上时，人群以生机勃勃、精明能干与缺乏活力、碌碌无能来区分的价值就会烟消云散。这是对人群以精英或大众来区别对待的传统观念的一个重大冲击：

第一，从低端来讲，人类增强技术至少是可以将区分精英与大众的身体机能与精神状态的传统指标意义显著降低，这就将精英依据强势禀赋与优势地位来统治大众的依据给局部褫夺了，起码这对难以获得精英地位的大众以某种改变处境与社会地位以一定的鼓舞。

第二，从中端来讲，人类增强技术将所有人都可以安顿在身体健壮、身心愉悦、行动敏捷的状态上，这对于精英得自自身的优越禀赋是一个明显的打击，也对他们得自传承的社会优势是一个隐约的颠覆，既然人人在禀赋与改善机制上没有悬殊差异，那么他们在社会组织行动中的优缺点就不会出现迥异的表现。

第三，从高端来讲，人类增强技术会从根本上改变人的自然结构，从而完全优化人的身心机能，让所有人处于一个大致相同水平的上佳状态，完全敉平人的身心差异，因此也就无法在身心机能上为精英主义提供支持理由。

比较而言，人类增强技术的高端结果目前还完全是一种期望，中端结果是一个可以期望的状态，而低端结果则是一个现实可期的情形。综合言之，人类增强技术将精英与大众划分的基础性理由模糊化了，因此让精英政治的传统论证进路丧失了人的身心差异这个前提条件。基于此，人们可以合逻辑地去思考一个问题：精英政治是不是可以按照目前状态维持下去， 继续成为人类政治的一个基本态势？

▍平等抑或平庸 ：精英政治的去向

既然人类增强技术可以在高中低三个端点上显示不同程度敉平人与人之间的先天、后天差异，这让许多建立在先天差异基础上的、人的后天发展模式也显得摇摇欲坠。换言之，精英是在先天优良禀赋基础上获得后天上佳发展，且得到历史肯定的社会结果，由于先天禀赋条件在人类增强技术的情况下，在人与人之间不再具有此前那么大的差异，精英的这一支撑条件就可能不再存在了。与此同时，由于精英是在后天发展，尤其是在既定的社会政治生活中取得了少数影响多数的支配地位，这就让精英与大众的界限很难逾越。但在人类增强技术的普遍运用情况下，人的身心状态可以根据需要进行优化，那么，因应于人的发展需要进行的定向增强，就会改变那种后天发展的不利情形，补齐后天发展所欠缺的种种条件，将人的后天发展差异拉近，甚至是完全消除。相应地，人与人之间一种可能出现的无差异发展结果，会让精英史观无处收集证据。

目前，上述讲法自然都属于一种推断，但有一点可以让人们相信则毫无疑问：精英政治会受到人类增强技术的全方位、根本性挑战。这种挑战可能引发的精英政治秩序难以为继，已如前述。那么，在精英政治很难像历史上那样固若金汤的时候，思考精英政治的未来态势，便是顺理成章的事情。在人类增强技术从现实到未来发展进程的线索上，思考精英政治的可能出路，依赖于以下三方面的关联考量：一是精英政治足以维持自身的结构性特点是不是可以继续维持。二是精英政治受到挑战的究竟是功能性方面还是结构性问题。三是如果精英政治遭遇结构性挑战，其可能的出路会是什么。

第一，精英政治足以维持自身的结构性特点是不是可以继续维持。精英政治之所以能长期维持，被精英主义者确定为贯通古今的基本政治统治形式，就是因为它具有足以维持自身的一些结构性特点。简言之，如果精英政治难以保持其结构性特点，那么就会面临一个势不可免的重构命运。

按照精英政治论的一般阐述， 其结构性特点如前所述：人群中总是少数人天生卓绝、多数人资质平庸，因此少数人统治多数人具有身心条件巨大不同的深厚基础；社会处在一个不断的变迁过程之中，但社会变迁总是由不同精英群体推动，并由新精英对旧精英的群体更替来呈现，精英的领域性与构成性可以不同，诸如政治精英、经济精英、技术精英这些领域精英轮番上场发挥作用，新精英动员人民而旧精英疏远人民，但精英主导历史的局面未曾改变；精英统治大众的基本结构深深扎根于社会分层的沃土之中，只要社会依然区分为高层、中层与底层的三个层次，只要高层主要是利用中层来驾驭底层，只要社会分层最终借助于权势少数与“沉默的大多数”的行动机制而呈现，那么，精英统治就不可撼动。

在人类增强技术的冲击下，精英政治的这些结构性特点似乎都会受到动摇：在人的身心自然结构被人类增强技术敉平其先天与后天差异的基础上，精英与大众在身心结构上的依托力就会显著弱化，以身强力壮、精明能干来作为精英的身心铠甲，就不再有用。相应地，在社会的后精英状态下，社会变迁就可能不再是精英的轮番登场，而可能是非精英的人群自主地决定其群体事务。进而在社会分层上的高、中、底层区隔，也就很难维持其边际界限。精英政治会被人类增强技术所撼动，因此精英政治变换群体与代际的自我维持机制就会遭遇明显挑战。

第二，精英政治受到挑战的究竟是功能性方面还是结构性问题。人类增强技术确实可以撼动精英政治，但即便是对精英政治的结构有所动摇，精英政治也可以通过自身机制的调整， 来维持其基本政治机制而不被颠覆。

这就需要区分两个问题：一是精英政治的结构性特点被动摇，是在颠覆的意义上被动摇，还是在结构的运行机制上被动摇？如果是前者，那么精英政治就会宣告终结。如果是后者，那么精英政治借助运行机制的调整，就仍然可以维持其基本结构。二是精英政治的结构自身被动摇，是在彻底终结的意义上被动摇，还是在结构重组的意义上被动摇？如果是前者，那么精英政治就没有任何前途了；如果是后者，精英政治可能被注入新的因素，被重组为新型的精英政治， 或是与精英政治有着亲缘关系的其他政治形式。从总体上讲，目前人类增强技术对精英政治结构性特点的撼动，还没有直接触动精英政治的深层结构。换言之，精英、尽管是不同面目的精英，也就是技术精英在替代政治精英、资本精英之后主导社会变迁，但不改精英主导的社会总体结构，而非任意社会个体都可以主导社会变迁、技术进步与政治运作。

但从一些迹象上可以推测，精英政治的结构自身动摇，是一个可以预期的结果：当精英大众划分的这一物理条件不再清晰的时候，人类增强技术等于对精英政治釜底抽薪了；当精英以其超然卓著的表现而赢得大众认同的机制被人类增强技术降低了光芒，而被社会成员均有可能做出超卓表现而均摊了荣耀的情况下，等于将精英的卓尔不凡归之于庸常无奇，精英之令人啧啧称奇的理由就消逝于无形；当精英不再作为一个社会阶层存在的时候，精英高居于社会顶端、中层支撑社会机制、底层随波逐流的分层合作体制也就无形中失去了存在依据，精英一词是否还具有实质意义，已经是一个问题；而精英对社会的支配性影响，也就是一个轻飘的历史记忆了。

第三，如果精英政治遭遇结构性挑战，其可能的出路会是什么。精英政治在结构上受到撼动，最终走向终止的情况下，会呈现为一个走向衰落和终结的长过程：它会在受到撼动的初期阶段，不断地展开维护自身的尝试，并在这种尝试中维护既定结构；当然，在逐渐失去精英政治的存在理由，丧失维护地盘的种种资源的情况下，精英政治可能会走向一种替代其地位与作用的不同政治形式。两种力量的对冲作用，在长期的、有进有退的拉锯战中，精英政治的资源会渐渐耗竭，让替代性政治形态浮现出来，并最终取代精英政治形式。目前还看不出精英政治的替代模式的总体轮廓，还无法确切描述它会是一种什么样的政治形式。虽说替代型政治的总体轮廓尚无法明确刻画，但逆精英政治的基本特点、替代性政治的过渡形式则依稀可辨：由于抗拒精英政治的民粹政治或平民政治，一直是以大众具备与精英同样的政治智慧与行动能力为取向的，它也就预示了，倘若精英政治走向衰颓与终结，很可能会在反精英政治的想法与做法那里去汲取资源。因此，替代精英政治的政治形式，就一定会在平民政治那里吸取思想资源的同时，尽力凸显与精英政治所强调的少数人对多数人的不平等统治方式不同旨趣的政治平等性。

以平等的民主政治反对等级的精英政治的基本思路，是人们长期以来抗拒精英政治的基本理念，更是种种旨在替代精英政治的一个共同出路。但即使在这样的大思路中，倡导平等的民主政治的人们，也都会接受人们在体力、情感与智力方面存在的差异，不承认的仅仅是作为精神与政治上的不平等，从而将反对精英政治的主要战场选定在政治与道德领域，而非人的体力、情感与智力的自然差异方面。这是符合人类增强技术基本缺席与低度发展的社会状况的一种进路。

在人类增强技术取得明显进步但尚未实现其根本目标的情况下，抗拒或反对精英政治的方式方法与进路是不是会发生重大变化呢？看起来是可能的：作为精英政治预设条件之一的人与人之间的体力、情感与智力差异，既然可以依靠人类增强技术部分地，甚至是全部地加以敉平，那么建立在这一基础上的社会政治规则与伦理道德秩序，怎么还能从容维持下去呢？人们必须重新建构一套与人类个体成员间自然条件差异不大，甚至几无差异相应的社会政治规则与伦理道德秩序。换言之，一种基于天然不平等的人之状态建立的抗争性社会政治秩序与伦理道德规则，其抗争主题已经被人类增强技术消解，那么社会政治规则与伦理道德秩序就势必彻底重建：这不仅意味着以法治来限制精英对大众的优势，保证平权基础上的起点、过程与结果的平等这类尝试需要基础重置；而且也意味着以一种生产力的高度发达，以及人全面而自由的发展为前提条件的理想社会的建构，也需要再对其尝试根本解决的社会问题进行重新审视。

人类增强技术较为合意的发展，显然有利于人们寻求不同于精英政治的平等政治尝试。但作别精英政治之际，人类增强技术在瓦解了精英政治赖以存在的人的自然差异基础时，究竟是不是真正有助于造就平等政治呢？这是一个需要进一步探讨的问题。因为精英政治是建立在精英与大众区隔基础上的，如果精英政治走上末路，是因为据以划分精英的人之自然差异被人类增强技术敉平的缘故，那么，建立在人的自然差异基础上的精英确认与精英作为，也就失去了被认作体力智力超群且精明强干的理由。于是两种可能便呈现出来：要不人人都可能因为人类增强技术的加持，成为在精英政治时代可望而不可即的精英人物，平等就此降临人间；要不因为人人都具有了同等的体力智力和同样的精明强干，反而人人都处在一个你有、我有、大家有的平庸状态，一种缺乏让人崇敬的精英之英雄气概的庸常气便弥漫开来，让政治进入一种毫无生气的无聊与沉寂状态。

在人类增强技术的驱动下，精英政治被釜底抽薪，人人均可望具备同等的体力智力与同样的精明强干能力，于是平等政治或平民政治可期。在现行的精英政治思路中，人们借助社会政治与道德伦理手段实现的平等，远不是一种从起点、过程到结果的平等，这类平等常常只存在于乌托邦的想象世界之中。最可期的平等，主要是一种机会的平等。这让精英政治可以保有最后的根据：因为即便一个社会通过种种道德、法律、政治与政策的精心设计，让人们可以取得同样的发展机会，但却无法就此保证人人都能取得同样的发展结果。如此，公平公正得到了保证，精英依然可以发挥其先天禀赋与后天才能，大众则因为获得了发展机会而无法埋怨、怨恨或仇恨社会了。于是，在社会的运行过程中，平等价值与精英作用相得益彰。但以机会平等挽救精英政治，难以满足大众的全方位平等诉求。只有在人的先天条件与后天发展都显现为一种令人惬意的全面平等状态时，人们，尤其是处在不利地位的人们，才会心满意足。人类增强技术，似乎可以补足精英政治框架中的平等缺陷：它不仅让人人都可以具有同等的体力智力，也可以让人具备同样的精明能干，还可以让人拥有同一水平的发展结果。这可以说是一种全方位的平等。但问题在于，当所有人都处在人的发展之同一状态时，即便都同在一个高水平线上，这样的状态对人似乎都没有什么激励作用了：因为人人奇崛，意味着人人矮化。没有精英与大众的差异性辨认，人与人就势必处在一种人皆普通、人皆寻常、人我一样、无所倾慕的状态。这是一种在精英政治状态下让人无法忍耐的平庸情形。假如以人类增强技术为动力逼使精英政治退场的结果，乃是平庸政治登场的话，那么，政治的反政治性质就会凸现出来：它不是以推动人们理性竞争来追求卓越，而是以造就平庸大众来显现碌碌无为。那么，在社会空间中，政治又如何可以稳妥地安放呢？

▍普遍强人政治

人类增强技术以造就后/超人类为最终目的，但以人的身心能力的明显强化为这一技术的现实驱动力量。前者是否够能实现预期，还是一个不能武断认定的事情；但后者很明显已经现实地展现在人们面前。在前述人类增强技术的驱动下，长期受高强的体力智力与超卓的精明能干之少数精英支配的大众，可望克服这种机能与技能的差距，而与精英处于一个相对接近或完全相同的水平线上：如前所述，基因技术有其积极的面向，但也可能会诱发可怕的后果：无论是从基因技术可以使强者更强、弱者更弱的不公平使用上看，可能会出现令人担忧的结果，还是从基因技术难以控制的诱发基因突变的内在风险上看，则更为令人忧心。但技术的优化能力与正当使用技术的种种保障条件，具有规范基因技术的强大力量。当然不能说基因技术只造福人类，而不会给人类带来祸患，人类需要首先积极面对技术进步，才会有技术造福人类的结果。

基于此，可以推知，脑机接口技术固然也存在被技术狂徒和政治疯子利用来控制人类的极大风险，但它更具有医治脑神经疾患的重大积极作用，具有显著提升人的大脑功能与结构的积极功用。仅就后者言，让那些接受信息不完整、不健全、效用不彰的人具有积极接受外部信息、改善大脑功能、提升脑活动运作绩效的能力，显然有助于他们以更为有效的方式介入公共生活、襄助公益活动、提升公共福利。这些曾经是知识精英们才能发挥显著绩效的活动，让普通人都能进入且发挥明显效果，很显然是对大众排斥性很强的精英政治的一种改善。纳米技术的发展如人所愿的话，它对人身心功能改善所具有的全面积极作用，就更是具有显著降低精英足以自豪的身心优势，甚至敉平精英与大众之间差异的重大功用。这还是在已经显现实际作用的人类增强技术的角度所做的归纳，如果赞同技术未来主义的展望，那么精英政治的颠覆与终结，就更是不在话下了。这是对前述分析的一个简略归纳。无论怎么说，精英政治在人类增强技术的进步中，似乎已经渐入黄昏、日暮途穷了。

在人类增强技术的有力推动下，至少说从身心条件上讲的精英或准精英这样的人群，会出现一个遍地丛生的新景象。如前所述，精英的普遍化，可能推动形成普遍精英政治。所谓普遍精英政治，是颇有一些反讽意味的命题。因为精英政治的预设条件，就是一个与庞大的公众群体鲜明对比而在的少数精英人群的存在。没有大众，何来精英？反之亦然。普遍精英政治的提法，等于取消了精英政治的存在理由。在精英与大众二分的政治结构可能崩溃之际，人类的政治活动模式会走向何方？亦如前述， 精英政治可能会走向一种类精英政治、大众政治，或完全不可逆料的政治形式。如果我们还不能准确预知精英政治的走向，按照比较保守的政治预测来讲，那么，精英政治最可能转向一种普遍强人政治。

需要提出的疑问是，存在一种普遍强人政治的可能吗？这里的强人政治，不是传统意义上的一个集所有权威于一身的那种专断政治形式，也不是现代社会中不断转移的领域性精英主导种种事务的集权性政治形式，它可以说是一种处在人人都很健硕情况下的新型政治模式。就目前情况来看，这样的政治模式具有虚拟的特性。但从发展前景上讲，人类增强技术普遍且有力改善公众的身心结构是可以实际期待的事情。因此，建立在身心结构极大改善， 且让绝大多数人等都能以强健的身心进入公共政治领域，不是一个夸张的说法。就此而言，普遍的强人政治是一个比普遍的精英政治要少一些反讽意味的命题。

沿着人类增强技术来考虑政治机制的重建问题，现行精英政治机制可能出现两种发展趋向：

一种趋势是，如果将人的体能、智能、技能与领袖能力均值化，精英政治彻底转变成庸众政治便是必然的。这是一种逆转精英政治，回向民粹政治或平民政治的路向。

另一种趋势， 则如前所述，如果人类增强技术仍然无法敉平人的差异，精英政治就会以弱的形式长期持存， 即以一种新型的普遍强人政治将精英政治改头换面保持下去。

就前者讲，普遍的庸人政治因为具有从目前视角看来的、明显的反政治性质，事实上是很难有效运转起来的。

就后者论，所谓普遍强人政治，有其限定性的含义：一方面指的是人人具有成为强人的内外在条件，另一方面指的是人人都有成为强人的可能或机会， 再一方面则是指人人都秉承以强人相互对待的行事原则。这是一种弱化的精英政治形式。弱化的地方表现在：

一是“精英”集群的人数呈几何级数的增长，以至于不再有必要将这一群体命名为与大众相别的精英，最多自然而然地以其强健体魄和超卓能力称之为“强人”，其强人所取的含义不是传统意义上的独断专行，而是人的身心结构上健硕的意义。这种政治形式之成为一种发展趋势，正是建立在精英政治衰颓，需要新型政治形式填补其衰退留下的政治真空而使然。

二是这一政治形式的运行，不再以精英与大众二分为前提，也不再以精明强干为标志，更不以精英主导社会历史变迁为基本史观；而是以大家均具备分担社会政治责任的能力、具有高低水准较为一致的行动力、享有几乎无差别的社会影响力为条件。于是，政治中那种人们似乎已经习以为常的争权夺利、恃强凌弱、赢家通吃的局面就会明显减少，那种由具有个人魅力的超级政治精英主导的强人政治也会丧失作为空间，而在人的总体实力差异不大基础上促成的理智合作机制，可能会成为政治新常态。这可能是人类增强技术对政治所能发挥出的、人们目前还意料不到的一种巨大影响力。

面对可能的普遍强人政治，人们起码会争辩三大问题：

第一，尽管人类增强技术可能提供给人人以身强力壮、智力超卓和精明能干的身心条件，但这样就能保证人人都相应能够得到成为精英的均等表现机会吗？这是对精英政治不会被颠覆和终结的一种辩护。因为即使在人类增强技术突飞猛进地发展到可以普及运用的情况下，人人都有机会成为强人，但实际成为强人的可能性则受到资源与分配范式的限制，事实上获得成为强人的机会并不均等，甚至是高度不公。因此，人类增强技术在让人能够成为强人与实际成为强人之间还存在巨大缝隙。同理，在社会资源并没有丰富到让人人实际成为精英的情况下，贯通古今的政治基本情势，也就是少数精英对多数大众的政治支配关系就很难终结，最多只会以不同的方式呈现出来而已。换言之，精英不会退场，大众势难华丽转身为精英或强人。这是一个从人类增强技术的社会结局上，对其是否具有终结精英政治能力的推断，在目前局面下完全能够成立。但在人类增强技术真正发展到它的理想状态阶段是，这样有利于维护精英政治的结论，可能就会受到普遍强人政治或普遍精英政治的颠覆：因为人的身心发展到几乎同样状态的时候，不惟目前的精英政治无法提供给这样的社会以秩序，而且在人类疾速扩展其活动空间的情况下，普遍强人或精英就不再受限于资源短缺的地球空间，而有了发挥其超卓能力的广阔天地了。建立在人数众多而资源短缺基础上的传统精英政治，岂能限定人数虽然还是众多但发展空间极大扩展的新型政治发展态势呢？

第二，普遍强人政治以何种运作模式真正运转起来？强人政治的预设是以弱势群体的存在为前提条件的，难道人类增强技术真可以普遍运用于每一个人吗？它不会被选择性地应用于社会强势/精英集团，进一步强化他们的身心机能与技能，相形进一步弱化社会底层集群的身心机能与技能吗？如此，将会进一步固化现有的精英政治格局，成功阻止源远流长的精英政治转型为新型政治形态。这样的断言，既是对技术发展所携带的进步动能的疑惧，也是对政治发展所必然展现的人性化局面的根本拒斥。从一部技术史来看，任何有力的造福人类的技术，最初确实会让少数人优先得益，但随着技术的迅速发展，得益面总是疾速扩大。现代技术从来没有成为专制者、权势集团维护自己特权的专属工具。从现代政治史来看，宪制民主制度的趋向成熟，它总是倾向于运用先进技术来改进统治与治理技艺，促使民主受益面的扩大。因此，尽管控制权力的当政者总是倾向于维护私利，但民主制度的运转则总是偏向于限制权力、保护权利。技术的公平性与政治的公正性互动，便会形成一股拒斥传统强人或特权化精英政治的强大力量。但这并不构成对新型精英或强人政治的质疑或颠覆。

第三，普遍强人政治在强势行为者之间，是否仍会分流为更为强势与相对弱势的群体分流？这是一种在近乎承认普遍强人政治的前提条件下，对强人间关系的、接近精英政治的精英间关系的蠡测。传统精英政治将精英划分为精英与亚精英、精英与准精英等不同类型，就是为了区分出台面精英与台下精英、正在发挥影响力的精英与将要发挥影响力的精英的不同集群。这是一种社会学意义上的区分。换言之，这种区分并不影响精英政治的存在形态，其仅仅呈现为精英政治的表现形态。但当精英政治在政治学的角度忽视不同层次或领域的精英作为差异，而将之视为人类增强技术普遍保证的身心差异甚小，甚至可以忽略差异的强人的时候，普遍精英政治或普遍强人政治就成为一种可以说得通的政治形式。

可以预想到的是，如果人类增强技术的发展能够一直保持在社会政治规则与伦理道德规范的约束范围内，它就一定能极大发挥出重塑人类政治生活样态，且使之维持在一个人类合意的状态下。如果人类增强技术在疾速发展中难以得到规范与控制，甚至成为一匹脱缰野马的话，那么，它可能会给人类带来意想不到的灾难。就此而言，对人类增强技术内含着的政治风险，不能不防。这正是各国紧急动员起来，力求以社会政治、法治规则与伦理规范约束高技术发展，防止其违规失范的理由之所在。“这是一个充满希望的时代，但也面临新的挑战。数字技术实际上已经具备了工具和武器的两面性。它们让我们想起1932年爱因斯坦的话，也提醒人们机器时代会创造诸多收益，但同时呼吁人类要确保其组织能力与科技进步同步。在我们不断努力为人类带来更多科技的同时，我们也需要为科技注入更多的人性。”

人类增强技术对人自身来说，显然是一柄双刃剑。因此，对之有效约束完全必要和绝对重要。但技术自身的发展逻辑往往并不受政治、法律与道德逻辑的绝对控制，它总是具有锐利突破的能量。故而，简单粗暴地约束人类增强技术发展的政治控制方式是不可取的。我们必须要有面对技术疾速发展的、难以逆料的未来的勇气。“在人类历史的大多数时期，我们都受制于自然世界加诸我们身上的缓慢得难以察觉的演化压力。现在我们已经可以控制自然选择的强度与对象了，从此，演化的进展要比之前任何生物所经历的都要更快，我们已经很难预测几十年后人类的基因组会是什么样子。这种情况下，谁还敢说几百年或几千年之后，我们这个物种或者生物世界会是什么样子？”因此，以一种面向未来的、开放的心境对待并处置人类增强技术的发展，并积极重构人类未来的政治生活模式，就是一个需要倡导的进取性做法。这也正是笔者从人类增强技术发展的视角审视精英政治前途的动力之所在。