The biggest victory of the Russian army this year! After 224 days of hard work, Wagner won the important town of Bakhmut. What does it mean for Ukraine?
At present, the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine has broken out for 451 days. On the afternoon of May 20, local time, the Wagner Group of the Russian Army first officially announced the news that Bakhmut (Atmsk) had been taken by Wagner in its own Telegram channel. The Wagner cluster announced that it will raise the flag in Atmsk at 6:00 p.m. Moscow time (0:00 a.m. Beijing time on the 21st).
Subsequently, the Russian Ministry of Defense clarified this news again in the battle situation briefing, affirming the key role of the Wagner assault group in the Battle of Bakhmut. Donetsk Region announced that Bachmut will be renamed to Artemovsk named after Artemov, a famous Communist Party member in the Soviet Union. By the early morning of the 21st Beijing time, the Wagner cluster broadcast the flag-raising scene. So far, it has been proved that the battle of Bakhmut, or Artemovsk, which lasted for half a year, ended with the victory of the Russian army.
How to evaluate the victory of the Russian army
Facing the victory of the Artemovsk (Bachmut) battle, Ivan the Great said two things:
The victory of the Russian army did not come easily
One is that the victory of the Russian army did not come easily. Just imagine that in May 2022, the Wagner Group and the Luhansk People's Army troops that had just entered the battlefield defeated the 24th Ukrainian Aircraft Brigade in Popasnaya, and at the same time, the 155th Pacific Naval Infantry Brigade and other troops headed south to Svetlodarcik The defensive arc, the Luganshik Thermal Power Plant and Ilovaysk, General Lapin's 90th Guards Tank Division and other units headed northward to the Zellert-Gorskoye fortification area. At that time, Ivan the Great felt that the situation on the battlefield was very good for the Russian army, and the Russian army would soon form an outflanking situation against Artemovsk (Bachmut). The two strategic highways, the Severodonetsk-Lisichansk twin cities, Seversk and other places will be cut off from the back road, so that the Ukrainian army will be driven to Slavyansk as a whole, plus the northern line With the actions of the Russian army in Izyum, perhaps the much-anticipated battle of Slavyansk will officially start in the fall of last year.
But unexpectedly, the Russian army fought a pot of raw food in the battle from May to July last year, and did not go to Artemovsk (Bahmut), which is close at hand, but went directly from Popasnaya to the north. Lett-Gorskoye. Although Severodonetsk and Lisichansk were won in early July, the abandonment of such a strategic point as Artemovsk (Bachmut) always makes people feel that the battle is not perfect. Subsequently, the Russian army from September to October was even more misorganized, and the Ukrainian army fought a counterattack on the northern front, losing a large area of land in an instant. Especially the loss of Izyum makes people think that the Russian army is farther away from Slavyansk, let alone Artemovsk (Bachmut) at this time. Big Ivan felt at the time whether the Russian army could touch it The side to Artemovsk (Bachmut) is not clear.
The more unfavorable the situation, the more the fighting spirit of the Wagner cluster is displayed. According to the description of the Wagner Group's own campaign, the Wagner Group began to dominate the Artemovsk (Bahmut) battle in October last year. The Brigade, the 77th Air Force Brigade, and the 17th Tank Brigade captured Suledar, and in March this year, they surrounded Artemovsk (Bahmut). At that time, Ivan the Great thought that the Ukrainian army would give up the city enclosure and flee, but on March 6 Zelensky personally ordered Zaluzhny and Shirsky not to abandon Artemovsk (Bahmut). The troops have to guard me. So the Ukrainian army went to the city for another two months, and Wagner fought the Ukrainian army in the city for another two months, and finally completely defeated the Ukrainian army and took the entire city of Artemovsk (Bahmut).
A siege battle that lasted for eight months, both the Russian army and the Ukrainian army fought to the end. This is a real contest of steel and will. In the end, the Wagner cluster, which entered the battle under the unfavorable situation of the battle situation in October last year, shouldered unprecedented responsibilities, and advanced inch by inch, won the victory.
Great strategic impact
The second is that the Battle of Artemovsk (Bakhmut) had a huge strategic and tactical impact. As we mentioned earlier, in terms of the overall strategic situation, Wagner entered the Battle of Artemov when a large number of contract soldiers of the Russian army returned home for vacation in October last year. The three battalions of the Russian army reserve defended, and the Russian army searched the entire front and even found only four battalions to support them. At that time, after the Ukrainian army received NATO support in 2022, although 10 to 15 brigades suffered heavy losses in Kherson, at least 20 or so brigades were available.
Let's not talk about whether these brigades of the Ukrainian army really have the ability to maneuver and attack as described by the Wagner cluster. For the Russian army, the most critical issue at that time was how to reverse the defeat and how to rebuild confidence in the battle situation. The Wagner Group, which launched an active attack on Artemovsk (Bakhmut) at this dark moment, actually assumed the strategic mission of rebuilding the confidence of the Russian army in the war situation and trying to regain the initiative in the war situation. Given the importance of Artemovsk (Bahmut) to the defense arc of Slavyansk, the Ukrainian army will inevitably mobilize some troops to strengthen the defense, thereby disrupting the rhythm of the Ukrainian army organizing a new round of offensive and providing a new round of offensive for the rest of the country. The front is relieved.
However, Ivan the Great estimated that even the Wagner Group himself did not expect that the Ukrainian army valued Artemovsk (Bahmut) so much, and even mobilized about 40 brigade combat teams or brigade formations in half a year. The reinforced battalion battle group filled Artemovsk (Bachmut). Originally in Artemovsk (Bachmut), maybe I just wanted to rebuild my confidence and disrupt the rhythm of the Ukrainian army. I didn’t expect that the Ukrainian army followed the rhythm of the Russian army in the end. So far, except for the 9th , The 10th Army, almost all the strength of the Ukrainian Army is in a state of incompleteness. Not only did last year’s possible new round of mobile offensive disappear, but this year’s major counter-offensive Ukrainian army is currently retreating. Among them, Wagner’s "Flesh Mill" in Artemovsk (Bachmut) contributed a lot without.
We can fully say that Wagner played a strategic role far beyond the basic battle corps as a basic battle corps with the size of an infantry army. The strategic situation of the Russian army was fundamentally reversed from October last year to May this year, and Wagner made the first contribution.
a fair duel
On the tactical level, Ivan the Great feels that the Battle of Artemovsk (Bakhmut) is a relatively "fair" battle between Russia and Ukraine so far in the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict.
Same day as Mariupol was taken
In all the previous battles, whether it was the Russian attack or the Ukrainian attack, the winning side more or less had some off-court factors in it. For example, in the Battle of Mariupol and the Battle of Severodonetsk-Lisichansk, the winning Russian army either surrounded the Ukrainian army and besieged it, or almost cut off the Ukrainian army’s back route. The fate of dumpling stuffing was forced to retreat. Another example is the Battle of Kherson and the Battle of Balaklea. In the former, although the Ukrainian army was beaten to shame, the Russian army was in a defensive posture and could not see the strength of its offensive capabilities. In the latter, the entire front of the Russian army was extremely weak. The emptiness, the problem lies in the upper echelons of the Russian army, not the local officers and soldiers at the grassroots level. In these big and small battles, both sides can list a bunch of reasons to prove how strong they are, and their failures depend on off-site factors, so it is impossible to see the strengths and weaknesses of both sides.
The Battle of Artemovsk (Bakhmut) was a relatively fair duel that really showed the tactical strength of the Russian and Ukrainian armies:
In terms of the battle situation, the Russian army maintained the offensive posture of the campaign, but the Ukrainian army did not give up. With continuous battles and tactical counterattacks, both sides had their own offense and defense;
In terms of mobilizing troops, Wagner was in charge of the Russian assault group, but some airborne troops and Lugansk 2nd Army troops were also used on the two wings, and the Ukrainian army was the best. Some units that have been blown into the sky, such as the 93rd Brigade, the number one hero of the "Kharkov Counterattack", the 46th Air Assault Brigade with all NATO training equipment, and the 3rd Azov Assault Brigade, which is known as an all-contract army composed of neo-Nazi diehards, All NATO mercenaries and Omega special forces of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine participated in the battle;
In terms of battlefield geography, neither the Russian army nor the Ukrainian army is in a situation of being surrounded, and they can maintain their own supply lines. They can replenish troops as they want, and replenish equipment as they want.
Therefore, the Battle of Artemovsk (Bachmut), in terms of battlefield situation, is like two boxers confronting each other head-on. The winner is the real strong, and the winning side, in the end, belongs to the Russian army. The battle of Artemovsk (Bachmut) proved irrefutably that at the tactical level, the Russian army is the real overwhelming The side of the Ukrainian army. Let's say something more ugly, even if the Ukrainian army is really half as strong as domestic Ukrainian fans say, the Battle of Artemovsk (Bahmut) will not be such a virtue. The Ukrainian army defended firmly, there was no threat to the supply line, and some even had mobile forces. As long as they could overwhelm the Russian army at the tactical level, they would not let the Russian army get close to the city.
Finally, on May 20 last year, we witnessed the end of the Battle of Mariupol, and the surrender of the Azov detachment of the 12th Action Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard at the Azov Star Iron and Steel Plant. On May 20 this year, we I also witnessed the end of the Battle of Artemovsk (Bakhmut), and also witnessed that after a year of reconstruction, Mariupol has initially shown its vitality. We hope that Artemovsk (Bachmut) in one year can also get rid of the trauma of the war as soon as possible, that the reconstruction of Artemovsk (Bahmut) can start as soon as possible, and that the well-developed Donbass The war-torn land can restore peace as soon as possible, and the people of Donbass can enjoy peace and stability as soon as possible.
The support rate of the Republican People's Party candidate in Turkey is far ahead. In addition, there is another presidential candidate who promised to withdraw from NATO and get closer to China after being elected. This is enough to prove that the political atmosphere in Turkey has already changed.
This year is a very important year for Turkey, after all, Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections will be held this year. Not to mention that at a critical moment when the international situation is changing, political changes in Turkey, an important transportation hub between Asia and Europe, may have a huge impact on the situation in Europe, Asia and even the world. So who is likely to become the winner of this Turkish presidential election?
According to the news released by the Turkish media, there are two people who are most likely to become the president. One is the current President Erdogan, whose approval rate among the people is as high as 43%. The other is the opposition leader Klezidar Oglu, whose approval rate is as high as 50%, which can be said to be far ahead of Erdogan. If the opposition leader becomes the new Turkish president, what might happen to China-Turkish relations? Judging from Klezidaroglu's political attributes, there is a high probability that he will continue to strengthen China-Turkey cooperation after he takes office.The party is the main opposition party in the Turkish Congress and also a center-left party. They tend to maintain political independence in terms of political philosophy. In other words, even if the Republican People's Party comes to power, they will continue to strengthen the independent policy adopted during Erdogan's period and reduce cooperation with NATO and the United States.
And Klezidaroglu's campaign slogan is to prioritize economic issues, the Kurdish issue, and the repatriation of Syrian refugees. Then under such circumstances, they need to establish cooperative relations with those major economic powers, so China is Turkey's best choice.
In the past ten years, the economic and trade cooperation between China and Turkey has been in a state of rapid development. After all, the trade between the two countries has complementary characteristics. Turkey imports a large amount of various light industrial products from China every year, while China also imports Turkish energy and mineral products. Moreover, Turkey is an important transportation hub between Europe and Asia, so they are also an important partner country of my country's "Belt and Road Initiative". Therefore, Klezidaroglu, who emphasizes the need to develop the economy first, has no reason not to cooperate with China.
Not to mention that he himself has a special relationship with China. As early as 2013, he led a delegation of the Turkish Republican People's Party to visit China and Xinjiang. He knows that China has an understanding of Turkey's religious and cultural traditions, and also has enough respect for the ethnic minorities in its own country. In 2021, Xinjiang University also awarded Klezidaroglu an "Honorary Doctor" degree. Therefore, this Turkish politician who has a relatively in-depth understanding of China should also know that strengthening China-Turkey cooperation is the choice that best serves Turkey's interests.
In addition to Erdogan and Klezidaroglu, another Turkish presidential candidate, Pelinchek, claimed in an interview with the media: According to the poll data they have, more than 80% of the Turkish people They all believe that the United States is a threat, and more than 70% of the people believe that China and Russia are Turkey's friends. So why does Turkey, a NATO member state, have such an obvious "anti-US and pro-China" political tendency? This is actually directly related to the changes in the international situation in the past three years.
During the Cold War, Turkey and the Soviet Union had geographical conflicts and historical grievances, so it was a reliable ally of the United States. However, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Turkey's role in the United States has been greatly reduced. This has prevented Turkey from perfectly integrating into the Western bloc. He has always been only a marginal ally of the United States.
Turkey has always hoped to join the EU but has been rejected for a long time, and even European and American countries are still secretly supporting separatist forces such as the Kurdish Workers Party in Turkey, which makes them very dissatisfied. After the Erdogan government came to power, Turkey proposed a plan to revive the status of a major country in Central Asia, which made the United States, which has always regarded Central Asia and the Middle East as its own back garden, very dissatisfied. There are rumors that the United States has planned a coup Overthrow Erdogan.
Therefore, even though there are many opposition groups in Turkey, the Turks will not allow the United States to intervene unscrupulously in the country's internal affairs, or even influence Turkey's development. Therefore, it is a political consensus that more and more Turks oppose the United States.
Under such circumstances, Pelinchek made a promise in an interview with the media: If he succeeds in becoming president, he will push Turkey to withdraw from NATO and get closer to China.
It can be said that although the Turkish Patriotic Party led by Pelincek does not have much influence in the country, as the relationship between Turkey and the United States further deteriorates, more Turks will only stand on the side against the United States in the future. It will directly promote the major political parties in the country to change their political ideas.
But this is beneficial and not harmful to China. According to the current situation, no matter what the results of this Turkish presidential election and parliamentary election are, the overall situation of China-Turkey cooperation in the future is the general direction. For the United States, it can only watch China-Turkish cooperation is helpless, after all, all of this was forced out by the United States.
Regardless of the outcome of the Turkish general election over the weekend, it is unlikely to produce satisfactory results for both parties. This will most likely trigger a new political crisis, and the geopolitical impact of this crisis will bring new opportunities for China's diplomacy.
For Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as a great man of great talent and boldness, no matter what the election result is, no matter what verbal guarantees he makes, he is unlikely to give up the power he has been in power for more than 20 years after the election. This is the necessity of human nature.
And because the Turkish government has rejected a large number of Western observers, this election is likely to produce an interesting outcome.
Assuming Erdogan loses the ballot statistics, then he can recount the votes or not recognize the election results, especially if the West supports his opponent, which will help him find enough excuses to refuse to step down, so the new Erdoğan There is a high probability that the Angolan government will face fierce attacks from the West and domestic turmoil. In this case, Erdogan can only hope for the support of mainland countries headed by China, otherwise he has no way out.
Conversely, if Erdogan wins the election, his pro-Western opposition will definitely launch fierce resistance and even refuse to recognize the election results. The further deterioration of Western relations, in this case, Turkey also needs China's support.
Erdogan will never be as benevolent as Gorbachev and Louis XVI. Great commanders dare to shed blood, just like Generalissimo Stalin
Of course, the situation is more likely to be more dramatic. For example, Guo Wei's coup d'état may not be impossible, but no matter what the election result is, Erdogan is unlikely to give up power. This is not only due to his interests, but also his political Group choice.
Therefore, after this election is over, the relationship between Erdogan's new Turkey and the West will only further deteriorate, and Turkey's institutional reforms will also increasingly deviate from the West. will change.
China needs to be good at taking advantage of this opportunity.
The latest data shows that my country's grain production has increased for 19 consecutive years last year, the output was more than 1.37 trillion catties, and the grain self-sufficiency rate exceeded 100%. .
At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin instructs the government to complete the intergovernmental agreement on the "China-Russia New Land Road Food Corridor" project by October to increase Russia's grain exports to China, providing another insurance for my country's food security. From a higher level, this move indicates that the two countries have found a new direction for cooperation on the issue of anti-hegemony in the future.
First of all, we must make it clear that the cooperation between China and Russia on food issues is of great significance to the future. In the face of extreme weather and geopolitical conflicts that have such a huge impact on the international grain market, although my country can guarantee food security, the world is not so lucky. Last year, due to extreme weather cuts in production and soaring crude oil prices, food price inflation was severe.
According to the United Nations' Global Food Crisis Report, about 200 million people in the world will face food crises in 2022, and 3 million of them will even face death threats. This is somewhat unbelievable, because in terms of food production, the world's food production in 2022 will be 2.8 billion tons. If the world is calculated on the basis of 8 billion people, the food gap is not too big. So what exactly caused it?
The answer is America's food hegemony. Looking at the long river of history, the United States first turned itself into the country with the highest grain production efficiency in the world; then expanded its international influence through food aid; and finally used its international influence to control the world's food from production to consumption. In all aspects, the establishment of US food hegemony threatens world food security.
Specifically, first of all, in the 1930s, the United States had already popularized tractor farming; in 1959, the plowing, sowing, harvesting, threshing, and cleaning of grain crops such as wheat and corn in the United States had been fully mechanized. During the Cold War, in order to increase agricultural output, chemical engineering, genetically modified engineering, satellite remote sensing and computer technology were also used in agricultural production on a large scale. At this time, the United States had become the most developed country in food production in the world.
Second, the United States, which has a large surplus of food, began to use food as a lever and use food aid to expand its political influence. After the end of World War II, the United States used food as an important tool to combat other ideologies and political systems and control its allies. Harriman, the head of the US Marshall Plan, said that 4.5 billion of the 12 billion U.S. dollars in aid from the Marshall Plan were agricultural commodities. It is to prevent Western Europe from falling into the Eastern camp.
At the same time, the United States also imposed a food blockade on the republics of the Soviet Union in Eastern Europe, which once caused a humanitarian disaster; in 1954, the United States passed the 480 Act on food aid, and after repeated revisions, the "Food for Peace Plan" was introduced. Food aid has become a common tactic of American diplomacy. Its total aid can account for up to 57% of the world's total, and its influence can be imagined.
Finally, in 1947, the Truman administration passed the fourth point plan and decided to provide technical assistance to developing countries. The Rockefeller family established an agricultural technology monopoly around the world in the name of promoting agricultural upgrading in developing countries, and artificially created food dependence and dependence. Wait until Nixon came to power Later, this advantage has begun to become prominent. The then Secretary of State Kissinger said that whoever controls the food controls everyone. The focus of US foreign policy has also shifted from manipulating the arms market to manipulating the food and energy markets.
To this end, the United States resorted to three axes of food hegemony. First, the energyization of food, in the absence of short-term fluctuations in population and food, transforming food into biofuels, artificially and controllably creating a food gap; The trade system controls nearly 80% of the world's grain transactions with high subsidies, high technology, and high capital production potential. Three of the world's four major grain groups are controlled by the United States. The third is the financialization of food, which binds food as a bulk commodity to the US dollar, and influences food prices through the operation of the United States in the financial market. If there is a problem, it will exacerbate the problem, and if there is no problem, it will create a problem.
It can be said that the world has been suffering for a long time on the food issue. For example, during the Arab Spring that began in 2010, the reason why Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen had political crises in a short period of time was inseparable from the fact that the United States released water to the grain market after the 2008 financial crisis. Living in the United States Under the haze of food hegemony, when the United States sneezes, the world catches a cold. If the United States wants to suppress someone, the person being suppressed may not even be able to survive.
From our own standpoint, in the current fierce competition between China and the United States, my country must not only ensure its own food security, but also help as many countries as possible to deal with food security issues, so as to truly promote multilateralism in international relations and world political multipolarity.
For this reason, from an internal point of view, we must "store grain in the ground, and store grain in technology." On the one hand, we will do our best to protect the cultivated land, protect the ecological environment, use chemical fertilizers scientifically and effectively, and increase soil fertility in an orderly manner. Increase the area of cultivated land; on the other hand, strengthen the research and development of seed technology, pesticides, and chemical fertilizers, promote the mechanization and informatization of grain production, effectively improve the efficiency of grain production, and reduce the cost of grain production.
Externally, we need to strengthen cooperation with Russia and other major grain producing countries in the world, with the country as the main body of competition, to promote a more fair and equitable world grain trade, and to maintain food price stability while ensuring food supply Free from manipulation by hegemony.
Unknowingly, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yue has been in power for more than a year. So, what kind of answer sheet has this South Korean president who came to power with the "economic card" handed over, and now the answer is here.
The Korean economy has been among the top ten in the world for the past few decades. However, since Yin Xiyue came to power, the Korean economy has dropped out of the top ten and dropped to thirteenth. This time, South Korea really couldn't bear it anymore. The proud economy has plummeted. According to the "Recent Economic Trends" released by the Ministry of Finance and Economics of South Korea recently, South Korea's economic growth has slowed down for four consecutive months, and exports in April are even more year-on-year. A decrease of 14.2%.
South Korea, as the "Four Asian Tigers" of the year, has created many miracles, but who would have thought that since Yin Xiyue came to power, South Korea, as an "export-oriented country", has actually experienced a huge trade deficit, and this deficit is still showing an upward trend .
According to a recent report by Hankyoreh News, South Korean economic institutions are now lowering their expectations for the country’s economic growth rate. The main expected range is between 1.1% and 1.6%. Maybe not even 1%.
Regarding the decline of South Korea's economy, why it has fallen to this point is obviously related to South Korean President Yoon Xiyue's policy of pro-US and Japan. On the matter of China, Yin Xiyue has really gone farther and farther, and has become more and more arrogant.
The industries South Korea is more proud of include the chip industry and the shipbuilding industry. Since South Korea joined the containment plan led by the United States, South Korea suffered heavy losses in chip exports to China. Although China still has shortcomings in the chip field, South Korea’s The good times don't last long.
It is worth mentioning that South Korea, a major shipbuilding country, is now facing more and more difficulties when facing China, because China's technology in the field of shipbuilding has become more and more proficient, especially in the past year, it can be said that it has received large orders. Soft to the touch. Among them, during French President Macron's visit to China, he directly signed a large shipbuilding order worth 21 billion yuan, which also conveyed his affirmation of Chinese technology.
Don't look at Yin Xiyue's happy face when he sang "American Pie" in the United States. The fate of offending China is not what the South Korean economy can afford. Since last year, South Korea has had a large trade surplus with China, and now it has a large trade surplus with China. It is time for South Korea to wake up. If it were not for the favor of the Chinese market for South Korea, the good life of Koreans would not be so simple. .
Ignoring China's warnings, South Korea's economy continues to decline. If you want to blame this kind of thing, you can blame the Koreans themselves. Why did you choose Yin Xiyue, a weirdo, and now it's too late to regret it.
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It is worth noting that his political party is the Turkish Republican People's Party,俄军今年最大胜利！苦战224天瓦格纳拿下重镇巴赫穆特，对于乌克兰意味着什么？
目前，俄乌军事冲突已经爆发451天。当地时间5月20日下午，俄军瓦格纳集群首先在自己的Telegram频道内，官宣了巴赫穆特（阿特木斯克）已经被瓦格纳全部拿下的消息。瓦格纳集群宣布，将在莫斯科时间晚上6时许（北京时间21日0时）在阿特木斯克升旗。
随后，俄罗斯国防部在战情通报中，再度明确了这一消息，肯定了瓦格纳突击集群在巴赫穆特战役中的关键性作用。顿涅茨克州则宣布，巴赫穆特将更名，更改为由苏联时期著名共产党员阿尔乔莫夫命名的阿尔乔莫夫斯克，到北京时间21日凌晨，瓦格纳集群播出升旗画面。至此证明，持续半年之久的巴赫穆特、或者说阿尔乔莫夫斯克战役以俄军的胜利而告终。
如何评价俄军的胜利
面对阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫穆特）战役的胜利结束，大伊万就说两点感想好了：
俄军的胜利来的不容易
一是俄军的胜利来的确实不容易。试想2022年5月，初入战场的瓦格纳集群和卢甘斯克人民军部队在波帕斯纳亚击败了乌军机24旅，同时太平洋海军步兵155旅等部往南直趋斯维特洛达尔西克防御弧线、卢甘西克热电厂和伊洛瓦伊斯克，拉平将军的近卫坦克 90师等部则往北直趋泽勒特-戈尔斯科耶筑垒区域。当时大伊万的观感，是战场形势对俄军而言一片大好，俄军很快将对阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫穆特）形成包抄态势，如果截断阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫穆特）的两条战略性公路，则北顿涅茨克-利西昌斯克双子城，塞弗尔斯克等地将被截断后路，从而在整体上将乌军逐向斯拉维扬斯克，加上北线俄军在伊久姆的动作，也许万众瞩目的斯拉维扬斯克会战会在去年秋季就正式打响。
但是没想到，俄军在去年5到7月的战局打了一锅夹生饭，并没有去打近在咫尺的阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫穆特），而是直接从波帕斯纳亚北上泽勒特-戈尔斯科耶。尽管在七月初拿下了北顿涅茨克和利西昌斯克，但放弃了阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫穆特）这么一个战略要点，总让人觉得战役打得不算完美。随后9月到10月的俄军更是因为组织失当，被乌军在北线打了一个战役反击，瞬间丢失了大片土地。尤其是伊久姆的丢失，更让人认为俄军离斯拉维扬斯克更加遥远了，更不用说此时的阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫穆特）了，大伊万当时感觉俄军能不能摸到阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫穆特）的边都不清楚。
越是在不利的态势下，越展现出瓦格纳集群的战斗精神。根据瓦格纳集群自己的战役经过描述，瓦格纳集群从去年十月开始主导阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫穆特）战役，今年一月份趁着乌军换防的战机，击败乌军山地128旅、空突46旅、空突77旅、坦克17旅等部拿下苏勒达尔，今年三月份对阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫穆特）呈现出包围态势。当时大伊万认为乌军会放弃城市围廓溃逃，但3月6日泽连斯基亲自向扎卢日尼和希尔斯基下令，不得放弃阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫穆特），填多少部队都得给我守住。于是乌军又往城里硬填了两个月，而瓦格纳又在城内和乌军打了两个月巷战，终于彻底击败乌军、拿下阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫穆特）全城。
一场持续了八个月之久的攻城战，俄军和乌军都拼到了最后，这是真正的钢铁和意志的较量。最终，在去年十月战局的不利态势下进入战斗、担负着前所未有重任、一寸一寸一步一步前进的瓦格纳集群夺得了胜利。
战略战术影响巨大
二是阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫穆特）战役在战略，战术上影响巨大。我们前面说到，在战略全局态势上，瓦格纳进入阿尔乔莫夫战役，是在去年十月份俄军大批合同兵回国休假，整条战线大唱空城计，红利曼只能拿出卢甘斯克民兵和俄军预备役三个营防守，俄军搜遍整条战线甚至只找出四个营接应的情况之下。而当时乌军经过2022年度北约支援后，尽管有10到15个旅在赫尔松遭受重创，但起码有20个左右的旅处于可用状态。
我们暂且不说乌军这些旅是否真的如瓦格纳集群描述的那样，具备机动进攻的能力，对于俄军来讲，当时最为关键的问题是怎样扭转败局，怎样重新建立对战局的信心。在这一黑暗时刻向阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫穆特）发起主动进攻的瓦格纳集群，事实上承担了重建俄军对战局的信心、试图重新把握战局主动权的战略使命。以阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫穆特）对斯拉维扬斯克防御弧线的重要性，乌军必然会调动一部分部队前来加强防御，从而打乱乌军组织新一轮进攻的节奏，为其它战线卸压。
但是，大伊万估计连瓦格纳集群自己都没有想到，乌军竟然如此看重阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫穆特），乃至在半年的时间里，前后调动了40个左右的旅战斗队或旅组成的加强营战斗群填进了阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫穆特）。原本在阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫穆特）可能只是想重建一下信心，打乱一下乌军的节奏，没想到最后变成了乌军跟着俄军的节奏打，以至于打到目前除了第9、第10军，乌军几乎所有的兵力都处于残缺不全的状态。不仅去年可能的新一轮机动进攻不见了踪影，今年的大反攻乌军目前都出现了退缩的情况，这其中，瓦格纳在阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫穆特）打造的“血肉磨坊”功不可没。
我们完全可以说，瓦格纳以一个步兵军规模的基本战役军团，起到了远超基本战役军团的战略性作用，俄军从去年十月到今年五月战略态势根本扭转，瓦格纳当立头功。
一场公平的对决
在战术层面上，大伊万的感觉，阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫穆特）之战，是俄乌军事冲突迄今为止俄乌双方相对“公平”的一场战役。
与拿下马里乌波尔的日子是同一天
先前的所有战役，无论是俄军进攻，还是乌军进攻，获取胜利的一方多多少少都是有些场外因素在里边的。比如马里乌波尔战役和北顿涅茨克-利西昌斯克战役，获胜方俄军要么是把乌军包围了起来围殴，要么是几乎切断了乌军的后路、乌军为了避免变成饺子馅的命运被迫撤退。又比如赫尔松保卫战和巴拉克列亚战役，前者尽管乌军被打得灰头土脸，但是俄军处于防御态势，看不出进攻能力的强弱，后者则是俄军整条战线都极度空虚，问题出在俄军的上层、而不是基层的现地官兵。这些大大小小的战役，双方都能列出一堆理由证明自己有多强，自己的失败赖场外因素，看不出双方的强弱来。
而阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫穆特）战役，则是真正能看出来俄乌两军在战术上孰强孰弱的一场相对公平的决斗：
在战役态势上，俄军维持战役进攻态势，但是乌军也没有放弃，伴随着持续不断的战役和战术反击，双方各有攻守；
在动用部队上，俄军突击集群由瓦格纳担负，但是两翼也使用了一些空降兵和卢甘斯克2军部队，乌军则是精锐尽出。一些被吹上天的部队，比如“哈尔科夫大反攻”头号功臣机93旅，全北约训练装备的空突46旅，号称由新纳粹死硬分子组成的全合同兵第3亚速突击旅，各路北约雇佣兵，乌克兰内务部欧米伽特种部队等全部参战；
在战场地理学上，无论是俄军还是乌军，都没有处于被包围的态势下，都可以维持自己的补给线，想怎么补充部队就怎么补充部队，想怎么补充装备那就怎么补充装备。
因此，阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫穆特）之战，在战场态势上，好比两个拳击手正面对抗，双方都是拳拳到肉，就看谁能够成为最后的胜利者。那个胜利者才是真正的强者，而获胜的一方，最后属于俄罗斯军队，阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫穆特）之战，无可辩驳地证明了在战术层面上，俄罗斯军队才是真正压倒乌克兰军队的一方。咱们再说一句比较难听的，哪怕乌克兰军队真的有国内乌克兰爱好者们说的一半那么强，阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫穆特）之战也不会打成这个德行。乌军稳守防御，补给线没有威胁，甚至有的是机动兵力，但凡战术层面上能压倒俄军，也不会让俄军靠近城市半步。
最后，去年的5月20日，我们见证了马里乌波尔战役的结束、乌军国民卫队第12行动旅亚速支队在亚速斯塔尔钢铁厂全员投降，今年5月20日，我们又目睹了阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫穆特）战役的结束，也目睹了马里乌波尔经过一年的重建后，目前已经初步展露出生机。我们希望一年后的阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫穆特），同样能够尽快摆脱战争的创伤，希望阿尔乔莫夫斯克（巴赫穆特）的重建能够尽快开始，也希望顿巴斯这块饱经战火的土地能够早日恢复和平，顿巴斯人民能够早日得到和平安定。
土耳其共和人民党候选人支持率遥遥领先，除此以外还有一位总统候选人承诺当选就退出北约亲近中国，这足以证明土耳其国内的政治风气早已发生了转变。
今年对土耳其来说是非常重要的一年，毕竟土耳其总统和议会选举都会在今年举行。更别说在国际局势风云变幻的关键时刻，作为亚洲与欧洲重要交通枢纽的土耳其发生了政局变化可能会对欧亚乃至于全球局势带来巨大影响。那么谁有可能会成为本次土耳其总统选举的胜利者呢？
根据土媒公布的消息来看，最有可能成为总统的有两个人，一个是现任总统埃尔多安，他在民间的支持率高达43%。另一个则是反对派领袖克莱齐达尔奥卢，他的支持率高达50%，可以说遥遥领先埃尔多安。如果这位反对派领袖成为了新任土耳其总统中土关系可能会有什么变化呢？根据克莱齐达尔奥卢的政治属性来看，他上台以后大概率还会继续强化中土合作。
值得注意的是，他所在的政党是土耳其共和人民党，该党派是土耳其国会最主要的反对党派也是中左翼政党，他们在政治理念上比较倾向于保持政治独立。也就是说就算是共和人民党上台执政，他们也会继续加强埃尔多安时期采取的独立自主政策，减少与北约以及美国的合作。
并且克莱齐达尔奥卢提出的竞选口号是优先解决经济问题，库尔德人问题，并且遣返叙利亚难民。那么在这样的情况下他们就需要与那些主要的经济强国建立合作关系，所以中国就是土耳其最好的选择。
在过去十几年时间内中土两国经贸合作一直处于快速发展状态，毕竟两国贸易有互补的特性。土耳其每年都在向中国大量进口各种轻工业产品，与此同时中国也在进口土耳其的能源和矿物产品。而且土耳其又属于欧洲与亚洲的重要交通枢纽，所以他们也是我国“一带一路倡议”的重要合作国，那么强调要先发展经济的克莱齐达尔奥卢没有理由不和中国合作。
更别说他本人与中国也有特殊关系，早在2013年时他就曾带领着土耳其共和人民党的代表团访问过中国，还前往过新疆。他知道中国对土耳其宗教文化传统是有了解的，也对自己国内的少数民族有足够多的尊重。在2021年时新疆大学还曾给克莱齐达尔奥卢授予过“名誉博士”学位。所以这位对中国有着比较深度了解的土耳其政客应该也知道，加强中土合作是最符合土耳其利益的选择。
除了埃尔多安和克莱齐达尔奥卢之外，另一位土耳其的总统候选人佩林切克在接受媒体采访时曾声称：根据他们掌握的民调数据来看，有八成以上土耳其民众都认为美国是威胁，同时有七成以上的民众认为中俄是土耳其的朋友。那么为什么土耳其这个北约成员国会出现如此明显的“反美亲华”政治倾向呢？这其实也和近三年时间内的国际局势转变有直接关系。
冷战时期土耳其和苏联有地缘矛盾和历史恩怨，所以他是美国的可靠盟友国家。可在苏联解体以后土耳其对美国的作用大幅降低，这让土耳其一直无法完美融入西方集团，他一直都只是美国的边缘盟国。
土耳其一直希望可以加入欧盟但长期遭到拒绝，甚至欧美各国还在暗中支持土耳其国内的库尔德工人党等分裂势力，这让他们感到非常不满。在埃尔多安政府上台以后土耳其就提出了重振中亚大国地位的计划，这又让一直把中亚和中东看作是自己后花园的美国感到非常不满，有传闻称美国还策划过政变推翻埃尔多安。
因此，即使在土耳其国内有很多反对派，但土耳其人都不会允许美国肆无忌惮地干涉该国内政，甚至左右土耳其发展，所以有越来越多的土耳其人反对美国是政治共识。
在这样的情况下佩林切克在接受媒体采访时做出承诺：如果他成功上台担任总统，会推动土耳其退出北约亲近中国。
可以说，虽然佩林切克领导的土耳其爱国党在该国影响力并不大，但随着土美关系的进一步恶化，在未来只会有更多土耳其人站在反对美国的那一边，这会直接促进该国国内的各大政党改变政治理念。
但这对中国来说有利无害，按照目前来看，不管这一次土耳其总统选举和议会选举结果如何，未来中土合作的大局都是大的方向，而对于美国来说，只能眼睁睁看着中土合作束手无策，毕竟这一切都是美国逼出来的。
最新数据显示，去年我国粮食生产实现19连增，产量在1.37万亿斤以上，粮食自给率超过100%，人均占有粮食480公斤，远高于国际公认400斤的安全线，做到了口粮绝对安全。
与此同时，俄总统普京责成政府要在10月前完成“中俄新陆路粮食走廊”项目的政府间协议，增加俄罗斯对中国的粮食出口，为我国的粮食安全又上了一道保险。而从更高的层面来看，此举预示着两国未来在反霸的问题上，又找到了一个新的合作方向。
首先我们要明确的是，中俄在粮食问题上的合作，对于未来而言意义重大。面对极端天气、地缘冲突对国际粮食市场影响如此巨大的当下，尽管我国可以保证粮食安全，世界却没有那么幸运。去年因极端天气减产、原油价格飙升导致粮食价格通货膨胀严重。
联合国《全球粮食危机报告》中的数据显示，2022年全球有2亿人左右面临粮食危机，其中有300万人甚至面临死亡威胁。这有些让人不可思议，因为从粮食产量上来，2022年世界粮食产量是28亿吨，如果全球按80亿人来算，粮食缺口并不算大。那么究竟是什么原因导致的呢？
答案就是美国的粮食霸权。从历史的长河看，美国先是将自己变成世界上粮食生产效率最高的国家；再通过粮食援助的方式扩大自己的国际影响力；最后再利用自己的国际影响力控制世界粮食从生产到食用的方方面面，建立美国的粮食霸权，威胁世界粮食安全。
具体来说，首先，1930年代，美国就已经普及拖拉机耕地；1959年美国的小麦、玉米等粮食作物的耕、播、收割、脱粒、清洗已经全面实现机械化。冷战期间，为提高农业产出，化工、转基因工程、卫星遥感与计算机技术也大规模用于农业生产，这个时候的美国已经成为世界粮食生产最发达的国家。
其次，拥有大量过剩粮食的美国开始以粮食为杠杆，用粮食援助来扩大政治影响。二战结束之后，美国将粮食作为打击其他意识形态和政治制度，控制盟国的重要工具，美国马歇尔计划负责人哈里曼说，马歇尔计划的120亿美元援助中有45亿美元都是农业商品，为的就是防止西欧倒向东方阵营。
与此同时，美国还对东欧的苏联加盟共和国实施了粮食封锁，一度造成了人道主义灾难；1954年美国通过了有关粮食援助的480法案，后经过反复修改，出台了“粮食换和平计划”，粮食援助已经成为美国外交的惯用伎俩，其援助总额最高能占到世界的57%，影响力可想而知。
最后，1947年，杜鲁门政府通过第4点计划，决定技术援助发展中国家，洛克菲勒家族以推动发展中国家农业升级为名，在全世界建立农业技术垄断，人为制造粮食依赖与依附，等到尼克松上台后，这种优势已经开始凸显，当时的国务卿基辛格就表示，谁控制了粮食，谁就控制了所有人。美国对外政策的重点也从操控武器市场转向操控粮食和能源市场。
为此，美国祭出粮食霸权三板斧。其一，粮食能源化，在人口和粮食都没有短时间内波动的情况下，将粮食转化成生物燃料，人为可控地制造粮食缺口；其二，粮食公司化，通过粮食公司充分利用WTO自由贸易体制，以高补贴、高技术、高资本的生产势能，控制世界近80%的粮食交易，世界四大粮食集团有三个都是美国控制的，美国以这种手段收割世界的同时，为政治服务；其三，粮食金融化，将粮食作为大宗商品与美元绑定到一起，通过美国在金融市场上的操作来影响粮食价格，有问题就让问题加剧，没有问题就制造问题。
可以说，世界在粮食问题上真是苦美久矣。比如，2010年开始的阿拉伯之春，埃及、突尼斯、也门之所以在很短的时间就出现了政治危机，与美国在2008年金融危机之后向粮食市场放水有脱不开的关系，生活在美国粮食霸权的阴霾下，美国打个喷嚏，世界就得感冒，美国要是想打压谁，那么被打压的对象可能连日子都过不下去。
站在我们自己的立场，在中美竞争如此激烈的当下，我国不仅要保证本国的粮食安全，更要尽可能地帮助更多的国家应对粮食安全问题，这样才能真正推动国际关系的多边主义化和世界政治多极化。
为此，从内部来说，我们要“藏粮于地，藏粮于技。”一方面，尽最大努力保护耕地，保护生态环境，科学有效地使用化肥，在提升土壤肥力的同时，有条不紊地提升耕地面积；另一方面，加强种子科技、农药、化肥的研发力度，推动粮食生产机械化、信息化，有效提升粮食生产效率，降低粮食生产成本。
从外部来讲，我们要加强与俄罗斯等世界粮食生产大国之间的合作，以国家为竞争主体，，推动世界粮食交易朝着更加公平公正的方向前进，维护粮食价格稳定的同时，保证粮食供应不受霸权操弄。
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