Voice of China

我在ChatGPT的花园里挖呀挖 20多年前人工智能AI模还只是一只丑小鸭，很长时间没有被科学界学术界，尤其是统计界充分的认可和使用，虽然绝大部分的AI模也用了概率统计的一些基本方法。记得当时很多年美国统计学家协会（ASA）都不承认NN甚至AI是统计专业领域的。97年我在当地医学院工作，当时的老板拿了一笔研究经费，目的专用于介绍和引进新的数学统计模式给医学院各系的研究人员。当时考虑的一个AI模就是最早被发明和使用的Neural Network(NN)，都是计算机专业或者程序语言能力强的人自发研究创造的模。但我们和一些专家观察和评估了使用及结果，最后NN模没有被通过和采用, 而是推荐引进了Latent Class Model(LCM)。2000年后，一些大的统计软件如SAS E-Miner都包括了NN模，但在实际应用中，尤其是科学研究发表的使用数据统计和定量分析的文章中，都几乎很少被使用。主要的原因之一在于，比如NN模, 什么线性、非线性的变量都能够输入，而数据处理的过程本身和方法论(methodlogy), 就像一个难以进行定量分析和描述的黑盒子，最后输出的结果也很难给予解释。常常被人暗下嘲笑为 garbage in and garbage out。 但过去的10多年来，丑小鸭终于变成了白天鹅。随着计算机科学、人工智能科学和数据科学等的飞速发展，以及这些科学之间的交叉学科的不断出现，更加速了人工智能模式的成熟应用和具体成果。AI模不仅仅在图像处理、语言处理、机器学习、自动驾驶、影像分析、医疗诊断、以及战场态势感知、战场决策、自动武器系统等，也在数据分析等等领域里得到了较大的发展和应用，其结果和成果越来越让人刮目相看。据说谷歌的象棋冠军AlphaZero，就是类似于下图的一种最高端的三层的深度学习的NN模。AlphaZero使用深度神经网络和蒙特卡洛树搜索算法的组合来评估位置并做出决定。 [图片] 人工智能AI今非昔比啦。虽然对算法和模式程序的处理过程，结构和功能以及结果和方法论的解释还是没有那么精确和完整。但结果和市场可以证明和说明一切。比如，我们和最大的几家金融公司，从2017年开始就使用AI的单层NN模，替代原来的数学统计模来做现金流的预测，精确度和顾客使用的满意度都比过去的数学统计模好些。 到目前为止，全公司各个领域所使用的几百个登记注册的Models，有将近...

 With a full retreat, Apple's "India factory" can't hold on. Inseparable from Chinese manufacturing is a reality that Cook has to accept! In the past few days, there has been bad news from Apple that Wistron plans to withdraw from India within a year and disband some of its businesses in India. Of course, Wistron did not respond positively to the news. But it is not groundless. Anyone with a discerning eye can see that Wistron's withdrawal from India is a certainty. In the past, the reason why Apple believed that Indian factories could replace Chinese factories was that India had cheaper labor. But in fact, the result is not so simple. While the labor force is cheap, there is a business environment that can be adjusted at every turn, and there are Indian workers who can't bear hardships at all and have no spirit of contract. Most importantly, many raw materials still depend on China. In fact, not only Apple, but also many Western companies have been rumored to...

On May 21, French war correspondents confirmed that Russian troops had indeed occupied Bakhmut. In Bakhmut, there is already no Ukrainian army resistance. Ukrainian armed forces and NATO mercenaries fled in all directions, discarding all heavy weapons. However, the escape route had long been blocked by the Russian army. During the retreat, the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Ace Brigade was covered by artillery, and the brigade commander, Colonel Govalotyuk, and other officials were killed on the spot. However, the Ukrainian side, including President Zelensky, still categorically denied that it had lost Bakhmut. The key reason is that this battle is too important to both Russia and Ukraine! Preparations for the battle around Bachmut began in August 2022, and the two sides fought for nine months. Such a long battle is enough to be written into the annals of war after World War II! This war turned Bahemut, a fortress city, into ruins. The streets were covered with shell fr...